Closer Monkey

Link: https://x.com/JeffPassan/status/1994863699903860926?s=20

Closer Monkey Update | Ryan Helsley

Addressing one of the team’s off-season goals, Baltimore has landed its closer for the 2026 season:

Ryan Helsley could not replicate his career year from 2024, but he is only one year removed from securing 49 saves. Here are his splits by month, half, and team from last season:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/vYEjI/5/

Taking this a step further, his splits by pitch in 2025 and 2025:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/UkQiQ/1/

Better command of his fastball and avoiding predictable pitch situations by improving his count leverage will ensure a rebound. Here are his results and aggregate average from the last three years:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/e17Ku/1/

As for his early projection set by Steamer:

Helsley Steamer Projection: 64 games, 64 innings, 3.33 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 76:25 K:BB (19.3 K-BB percentage)

These numbers align with his aggregated average above. How many saves he secures will determine his ceiling, along with coming close to Steamer’s cited numbers. Over the last three years, Baltimore has produced 205 save opportunities and 133 saves, averaging 68 save chances and 44 saves, which would put Helsley’s save projection at or above 30.

Things will change, but Helsley’s price point will rise following his signing with the Orioles.

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Closer Monkey Update | Raisel Iglesias

Given recent posts about Joe Jiménez’s slow-healing knee, targeting Raisel Iglesias was a slam dunk for Atlanta’s front office. He returns on a one-year deal:

From June 9-on, he went 1-1 while converting 21 of 22 save opportunities and even chipped in a hold. Across 43.1 innings, he recorded 48 strikeouts against ten walks (24.1 K-BB percentage) with a 0.693 WHIP. He lowered his ERA from 6.75 to 3.21 by the end of the season. He’s the 40th pitcher in history, and fifth active reliever to post 250 career saves on September 16.

After a rough start, and a tweak of his arsenal, Iglesias turned his season around when he used his slider less:

When viewing his split results, note the underlying data from June 9 through the end of the season:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/iJzji/2/

Entering his Age-36 season, repeating the numbers in this split will be difficult. Over his last three years, all with Atlanta, he has a 15-12 record with 96 saves in 109 save chances (88.1 perent conversion rate), a 2.57 ERA, 3.03 SIERA, a 0.95 WHIP, 215 strikeouts versus 45 walks (22 K-BB percentage), and a 15.8 percent swinging strike rate.

Staving off lost velocity will be paramount for his 2026 results:

However, he will be a closer, which comes at a premium in our current fantasy baseball climate.

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Closer Monkey Update | Emmanuel Clase

Despite our warnings, Emmanuel Clase has a 284.36 ADP through the first 11 NFBC Draft Champions leagues drafted for the 2026 season. In these drafts, he has a minimum pick of 89 and a maximum selection at 585th overall. After finishing 2025 on non-disciplinary leave, he was indicted for his involvement with gamblers.

Beginning with Jeff Passan’s article for ESPN:

And continues:

Noting innocence before being proven guilty, things do not look great for Clase. As Zach Meisel of The Athletic notes, a lifetime ban could ensue:

It’s possible he threw his last pitch for the organization on July 28 while recording his 24th save of the season, and his 181st for the Guardians. No reliever has recorded more since 2021, with Josh Hader (165) and Kenley Jansen (164) a distant second and third in the category despite Clase’s season being cut short.

In the same 11 drafts, Cade Smith has a 61.73 ADP with a minimum pick of 49 and a maximum pick of 84, but this news may make his price point in this format rise in the coming weeks. He is one of three relievers with at least 100 strikeouts in the last two seasons, joining Mason Miller and Bryan Abreu. Smith also posted a 4-1 record while converting 13 of 16 save chances following his teammates’ placement on administrative leave. During this timeframe, he ranked sixth in saves, seventh in innings pitched (29), sixth in strikeouts (39), third in K-BB percentage (33.6 percent), third in SIERA (1.80), and 25th in swinging strike rate (15.6 percent).

Clarity should emerge before the start of the upcoming season, but Cleveland will be moving on from Clase; fantasy owners should follow suit.

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Closer Monkey’s Leverage Ledger | 11.2.2025

Following the conclusion of the World Series, the quiet period of free agency begins. Teams and players have five days to decide how they will handle their contractual options for 2026. For relievers, there will be pivotal decisions, starting with two of the best closers from 2025 owning opt-outs of their current contracts.

Robert Suarez
Edwin Díaz

No one has recorded more saves than Suarez’s 76 since the start of 2024. It has been speculated that he will receive a four-year deal worth approximately $100 million, almost ensuring he will not return to San Diego. If this happens, then the biggest question for the team will be focused on Mason Miller, courtesy of AJ Casavell for MLB.com in this post:

As for Díaz, his market is also expected to be robust, potentially including a return to the Mets. If he leaves, almost the entire leverage ladder must be rebuilt by John Stearns, who has preferred not to overpay for a closer during his time with the Brewers.

Both Pete Fairbanks ($12 million) and Andrés Muñoz ($7 million) have team options in their respective contracts. Fairbanks can be a free agent at the end of 2026, which may land him on the trade block per Adam Berry of MLB.com:

After posting a career-best 38 saves, Muñoz will have his team option picked up, as he remains underpaid in comparison to his peers. Daniel Kramer, of MLB.com, believes Seattle should be aggressive in adding a veteran reliever to an already strong bullpen:

Other relievers with team or player option decisions due by November 7 at 5 p.m.:

Right Handed Relievers

Andrew Kittredge (CHC) – team option for $9 million
Pierce Johnson (ATL) – team option for $7 million
Tyler Kinley (ATL) – team option for $5 million
Paul Sewald (CLE) – mutual option for $10 million
Scott Barlow (CIN) – team option for $6.5 million
Jonathan Loáisiga (NYY) – team option for $5 million
Liam Hendriks (BOS) – mutual option for $12 million

Left-Handed Relievers

AJ Minter (NYM) – player option for $11 million
Brooks Raley (NYM) – team option for $4.8 million
José Alvarado (PHI) – team option for $9 million
Wandy Peralta (SD) – opt-in for $5.4 million
Tim Hill (NYY) – team option for $3 million
Brent Suter (CIN) – team option for $3 million
Alex Vesia (LAD) – team option for $3.6 million

Free Agent Closers

Switching gears to the relievers available as free agents, we begin with six who recorded at least 18 saves in 2025.

Emilio Pagán – Only four relievers secured more than his 32 saves in 2025. Per this column by Mark Sheldon for MLB.com, the closer is hoping for a reunion with the Reds:

Raisel Iglesias – From June 9 on, he was 1-1 while converting 21 of 22 save opportunities and even chipped in a hold. Across 43.1 innings, he recorded 48 strikeouts against ten walks (24.1 K-BB percentage) with a 0.693 WHIP. He lowered his ERA from 6.75 to 3.21 by the end of the season.

Kenley Jansen – Posted a 1.48 ERA with 13 saves after the All-Star break. He ended the season with 476 career saves, two away from tying Lee Smith for third-most all-time. In his last 36 outings, he had a 1.02 ERA (four earned runs across 35.1 innings).

Kyle Finnegan – He recorded 20 saves for Washington. Following his trade, he went 3-0 with a hold and four saves, giving up three hits and three walks while posting 19 strikeouts in his first 14.1 innings with Detroit. There’s mutual interest in a possible return to the Tigers this offseason.

Ryan Helsley – No reliever had his market value hurt by performance more than Helsley. He converted 21 of 26 saves with the Cardinals but struggled with tipping pitchers and his ratios after being traded to the Mets. He may need a one-year show-me deal for the upcoming season.

Devin Williams – Front offices must discern if the Milwaukee “Airbender” that produced a 1.83 ERA and a 1.023 WHIP with 68 saves across 235.2 innings, or the Yankees version, who owned a 4.79 ERA with a 1.129 WHIP and 18 saves through 62 innings, will be the one a team gets.

Notable Right-handed Set-up Relievers

Brad Keller
Phil Maton
Tyler Rogers
Seranthony Domínguez
Luke Weaver
Shawn Armstrong
Tommy Kahnle
Jakob Junis
Paul Blackburn
Ryne Stanek

Notable Left-handed Set-up Relievers

Taylor Rogers
Gregory Soto
Caleb Ferguson
Sean Newcomb
Andrew Chafin
Danny Coulombe
Jalen Beeks

Our bullpen hierarchies have been updated, although they will remain fluid until the options and opt-outs are finalized in the coming days.

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