Addressing one of the team’s off-season goals, Baltimore has landed its closer for the 2026 season:
Link: https://x.com/JeffPassan/status/1994863699903860926?s=20
Ryan Helsley could not replicate his career year from 2024, but he is only one year removed from securing 49 saves. Here are his splits by month, half, and team from last season:
Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/vYEjI/5/
Taking this a step further, his splits by pitch in 2025 and 2025:
Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/UkQiQ/1/
Better command of his fastball and avoiding predictable pitch situations by improving his count leverage will ensure a rebound. Here are his results and aggregate average from the last three years:
Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/e17Ku/1/
As for his early projection set by Steamer:
- Helsley Steamer Projection: 64 games, 64 innings, 3.33 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 76:25 K:BB (19.3 K-BB percentage)
These numbers align with his aggregated average above. How many saves he secures will determine his ceiling, along with coming close to Steamer’s cited numbers. Over the last three years, Baltimore has produced 205 save opportunities and 133 saves, averaging 68 save chances and 44 saves, which would put Helsley’s save projection at or above 30.
Things will change, but Helsley’s price point will rise following his signing with the Orioles.
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Statistical Credits:
