Monday’s seven-game produced three reliever wins, two during extra-inning contests, and three saves. However, all three were considered ancillary since none were recorded by the team’s primary save share. Because of how things transpired for Paul Sewald, the recaps and three takeaways will be reversed in today’s post for a deeper dive into his recent results.
Also, in case you missed it, our updated Top-50 relievers for saves and Top-75 for SOLDS were posted yesterday afternoon.
Closer CliffsNotes, July 8
Arizona Diamondbacks – For the first time in his career, Paul Sewald suffered a third consecutive blown save. With two outs and two strikes, he allowed Sean Murphy’s game-tying two-run home run. His manager alluded to a high fastball against Eddie Rosario, which resulted in a hit, given his struggles with off-speed pitches, but the damage has been done. It’s not about command but getting the most out of his sweeper.
- Justin Martinez was tagged with his first loss. He let the “place” runner score in the tenth and 11th innings despite only allowing one hit and striking out one.
- Ryan Thompson tossed a scoreless eighth, securing his 14th hold with a walk and two strikeouts.
- Kevin Ginkel gave up a hit and recorded two strikeouts in a scoreless seventh for his sixth hold. He’s been scoreless in 15 of his last 16 with 16 strikeouts versus two walks.
Updated Hierarchy: Paul Sewald | Kevin Ginkel | Ryan Thompson
Atlanta Braves – With a one-run lead in the bottom of the 11th, Joe Jiménez recorded his second save, working around a one-out walk with a strikeout and a game-ending flyout. He threw 17 pitches (8 strikes – 47.1 Strike%) and induced two whiffs (11.8 SwStr%).
- Raisel Iglesias logged two innings in his first multiple-inning outing since June 5, 2022. He entered a tied game in the ninth and collected his first win despite letting the “place” runner score in the tenth. He retired all six batters on 21 pitches (13 strikes—61.9 Strike%) with four whiffs (19 SwStr%).
- Grant Holmes logged three scoreless frames, yielding a walk, keeping his team in the contest.
Hierarchy remains: Raisel Iglesias | Joe Jiménez | A.J. Minter
Chicago White Sox – Taking over the top of the 11th, Jared Shuster suffered his second loss, allowing two hits, including Brooks Lee’s go-ahead RBI single, and two runs (one earned).
- Michael Kopech retired the side in the tenth, stranding the “place” runner on 10 pitches (60 Strike%) with one whiff, facing the Twins’ 3-4-5 hitters.
- John Brebbia worked a scoreless ninth, giving up a hit and striking out one.
- Justin Anderson tossed 1.1 scoreless frames, navigating around a hit and a walk.
- Jordan Leasure was tagged with his fourth blown save. He gave up Byron Buxton’s lead-off double, a Lee single, a one-out two-run home run by Matt Wallner, and a two-out, go-ahead solo shot by Carlos Correa. Leasure finished with four hits and four earned runs over two-thirds of the seventh inning.
Hierarchy remains: Michael Kopech | John Brebbia | Tanner Banks
Cleveland Guardians – Suffering his third loss, Scott Barlow allowed a lead-off double by Jake Rogers in the bottom of the eighth, followed by a Wenceel Pérez single, who was thrown out trying to reach second. After issuing Colt Keith a walk, Barlow gave up a fielder’s choice RBI grounder, scoring the game’s only run. He finished with two hits, an earned run, and a walk during his one-third of the eighth.
- Tim Herrin retired both batters, ending the inning.
- Nick Sandlin allowed a hit and struck out one in a scoreless seventh.
- Sam Hentges stranded a runner and recorded two outs, one via strikeout, in the sixth.
Hierarchy remains: Emmanuel Clase | Hunter Gaddis | Scott Barlow
Detroit Tigers – Summoned with a one-run lead in the top of the ninth, Shelby Miller preserved the combined shutout and recorded his first save of the season, the second of his career. He threw 13 pitches (9 strikes – 69.2 Strike%) and induced one whiff. He’s been scoreless over his last two appearances, securing a win and this save. However, his three previous outings resulted in nine earned runs over 2.1 innings.
- Tyler Holton collected his fourth win, retiring all five batters after taking over in the top of the seventh and stranding a runner. He’s been scoreless over his last five outings and has recorded 18 multi-inning appearances this season.
Adjusted Hierarchy: *Jason Foley | *Tyler Holton | *Shelby Miller
*= closer-by-committee
Minnesota Twins – Outlasting the White Sox in an 11-inning contest, the Twins called upon Kody Funderburk with a two-run lead. He responded by recording his first major league save. He retired the side against the 7-8-9 lineup pocket and recorded a strikeout.
- Jhoan Durán collected his fifth win, tossing a scoreless tenth. He navigated around a walk (intentional – Eloy Jiménez) and struck out one, throwing 13 pitches (8 strikes – 61.5 Strike%) with two whiffs (15.4 SwStr%).
- Caleb Thielbar tossed a clean ninth, striking out one.
- Griffin Jax suffered his fourth blown save, allowing a hit, an earned run, and a walk while striking out two in the eighth.
- Jorge Alcala notched his ninth hold, tossing a clean seventh and striking out one.
Hierarchy remains: Jhoan Durán | Griffin Jax | Jorge Alcala
Vulture Save Options for Tuesday, July 9
- A.J. Minter (ATL): Iglesias worked two innings on 21 pitches and should receive tonight off.
- Jorge Alcala (MIN): Durán and Jax have appeared on consecutive days, leaving Alcala or Caleb Thielbar in line for the save, which may depend on late-inning lineup pockets. I’m Leaning Alcala, based on Chicago’s best hitters being right-handed.
- Tanner Banks (CHW): On the opposite side of this contest, Kopech and Brebbia have pitched in two straight and three of the last four.
Three Takeaways
- Lovullo stands by Sewald: Despite suffering a blown save for a third straight appearance, Paul Sewald remains Torey Lovullo’s closer, per this interview shared by Arizona Sports (@AZSports) on “X.” After converting his first 11 save opportunities during a 17-game scoreless streak, things were quiet regarding Sewald. Setting a baseline, he entered last night with a 3.83 expected ERA from Statcast. Following last night’s outcome, he’s posted a 3.93 ERA through 18.1 innings across 21 appearances. His scoreless streak masked a rising contact rate but his rolling chart, courtesy of Fangraphs, illustrates his recent struggles with his arsenal:
In 2024, he recorded his highest contact rate allowed (80 percent) since 2020, his lowest swinging strike percentage (11.1), and his lowest K-BB percentage (19.4). Hope lies in his 0.87 WHIP and 5.6 walk percentage, but if the 12.5 percent barrel rate and 39.6 hard-hit percentage remain, outings like this will persist.
Taking this a step further, here are his splits-by-pitch from 2024 versus last year:
Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/MEhoi/1/
Increasing his four-seam fastball use, which resulted in the two-out single and game-tying home run, may not be in his best interests, especially considering the 44.4 hard-hit percentage on the pitch, which does not include last night’s data. No matter how Lovullo views things, Sewald’s on the hot seat with fantasy managers. Track his results through the end of the first half, and where his team resides in the standings may determine his role in the second half.
2. Tigers bullpen in flux: By design, A.J. Hinch refrains from labeling his relievers the closer. Since June 30, four pitchers have recorded a save:
- July 8: Shelby Miller (SV); Tyler Holton (Win)
- July 6: Andrew Chafin (SV); Jason Foley (Hold); Shelby Miller (Win)
- July 5: Jason Foley (SV); Andrew Chafin (Hold); Will Vest (Hold)
- June 30: Tyler Holton (SV)
Without delving into each reliever’s results, the last 14 days Win Probability Added (WPA) chart from Fangraphs illustrated how each one impacts game outcomes:
Long story short, let someone else mine saves from this bullpen. For all we know, Alex Faedo could get the next save opportunity.
3. Kopech’s adjustment: Following a tough blown save on Sunday in Miami, Michael Kopech acknowledged the need for a more varied approach in his outings rather than remaining reliant on his fastball, as discussed in this column by Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times. It’s only one game, but in the tenth inning last night, he stranded the “place” runner and used three pitches in the process:
As a comparison, his pitch percentage chart from Statcast displays his four-seam predictability:
Time will tell if this sticks, but it’s an encouraging development in his transition into being a reliever full-time this season.
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