Analysis, Trends, and Ramblings: Edwin Díaz’s pending return, Trade Deadline Prep, and more

Because this post may take a few different turns, it may not fall under a categorical listing used previously this season. It will, however, delve into a few tangible topics before fantasy baseball’s next scoring period.

Edwin Díaz (NYM)

  • Bad luck or bad results in 2024?
  • May be activated on Wednesday (June 12) or Thursday (June 13)

Although his placement on the 15-day injured list was labeled right shoulder impingement, it’s possible the team felt the reliever needed a mental reset. Through 20 appearances, he owned a 1-1 record with five saves, four blown saves, a 5.40 ERA, and a 1.25 WHIP over 20 innings.

Although his ERA sits above five, in comparison to relievers with at least five saves this season, Díaz has the largest disparity between his ERA and SIERA:


While this can be encouraging, he’s suffered more blown saves in 2024 than in 2022. In fact, his leverage trends resemble the 2021 iteration of the closer than his potential outlier season from 2022:


During a postgame interview following his rehab outing on Thursday with the Brooklyn Cyclones, he mentioned his slider “felt great” and his fastball had “more life” than previous games this season. Fantasy managers hope this will be true next week. Here are his splits by pitch from his last two active seasons:


Improved location with his four-seam fastball and more whiffs from his slider will determine if he can migrate his ERA toward his SIERA. Expecting a full repeat of his dominant 2022 season was unrealistic. However, based on the analytical data, expecting better results upon his return may be warranted. Reports had his fastball between 96-to-98 m.p.h. If his whiff rates rise with the slider, he may find past form, just not the 2022 version.

Trade Deadline Preparations

Pending Free Agents in 2025 on Potential “Sellers”

  • Tanner Scott (MIA)
  • Kenley Jansen (BOS)
  • Carlos Estévez (LAA)
  • Luis García (LAA)
  • Matt Moore (LAA)
  • Aroldis Chapman (PIT)
  • Jalen Beeks (COL)
  • Jake Diekman (NYM)
  • Adam Ottavino (NYM)

Players with Arbitration Remaining or Options on Potential “Sellers”

  • Michael Kopech (CWS) – 1 year of control left (Free Agent in 2026)
  • John Brebbia (CWS) – Mutual Option

Relievers on Bubble Teams (Deciding between selling or contending)

  • Yimi García (TOR) – pending free agent
  • Ryan Pressly (HOU) – mutual option with an opt-out based on appearances
  • Kirby Yates (TEX) – pending free agent
  • David Robertson (TEX) – mutual option
  • José Leclerc (TEX) – pending free agent
  • Trevor Richards (TOR) – pending free agent

Dynasty Dive Bar

Logan Evans (SEA)

He’s stopped starting games and is now focusing on being a reliever for a potential promotion before the All-Star break. It’s the same path Matt Brash undertook and confirmed by the general manager:

He’s produced 48 strikeouts through 53.1 innings at Double-A, but his stuff will play up as a reliever.

Ben Joyce (LAA)

One cannot overlook seeing the three relievers currently listed in our site’s bullpen hierarchy as pending free agents and not think Joyce could receive save chances in the second half. There are still concerns about his command and durability, but his remaining appearances before the All-Star break may determine his upside from a fantasy perspective.

During his season debut, he worked around a lead-off single by Fernando Tatis Jr. and a wild pitch by retiring the next three batters for his first hold. His four-seam fastball averaged 101.8 m.p.h. and produced four whiffs among his 17 pitches (23.5 SwStr%).

Andrew Walters (CLE)

It’s almost a spoil of riches for the Guardians, especially since Emmanuel Clase remains under contract through 2028. But Walters dominated Double-A competition, posting 38 strikeouts against eight walks with a 1.050 WHIP over 20 innings. He was recently promoted to Triple-A and could be a leverage factor in the second half. Here is a glimpse of his four-seam fastball, courtesy of Thomas Nestico.

More Rest for Romano?

Within an update on’s roster notes and injury tab, this blurb regarding Jordan Romano should not be ignored:

He’s only made three appearances this year on zero days’ rest and was working with reduced velocity before landing on the injured list for a second time this season. Having his workload managed would cap his save upside after his return, and if Toronto falls from contention, he could be shut down again in the second half. It’s fluid until more is revealed about his timeline for a return.

Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community. Stay safe and be well.