Spring Vibes, March 7: Closer competition updates, Injury Notes, and Game Recaps

Some fantasy owners will avoid closers on teams projected for low win totals (Chicago White Sox; Colorado), but for those who prefer not paying for saves in their leagues, bargains or steam options could emerge on them. This bucket also includes the defending World Champion Texas Rangers, with Bruce Bochy using spring results as a baseline for deciding who becomes the primary save share when the season begins. With this in mind, here’s today’s updates.

Chicago White Sox – He will be eased into high-leverage events in the regular season, but Jordan Leasure could earn save chances as the season progresses. In this post by Daryl Van Schouwen, he provides some intriguing quotes about Leasure’s future with the White Sox. Those in keeper leagues should track his results the rest of spring closely. Right now, he owns a 1.00 WHIP with a 5:2 K:BB (27.3 K-BB%) through three scoreless innings.

More news for the leverage ladder surfaced on MLB.com by Scott Merkin. John Brebbia will throw a side session without his walking boot on Thursday (March 7). It did not provide a timeline for his availability, but Opening Day could be possible, but time will tell how this plays out.

Colorado Rockies – Updating the camp battle for “closer“, Patrick Saunders posted about their spring results so far in his game recap for The Denver Post. As of Wednesday’s game, here are their results:

  • Tyler Kinley: 3 games, 3 IP, 4:2 K:BB, 0.67 WHIP
  • Justin Lawrence: 4 games, 4 IP, 7:0 K:BB, 1.50 WHIP

Texas Rangers –  Two weeks into camp and still no clarity regarding who will be the primary save share when the regular season begins. Tim Cowlishaw, of The Dallas Morning News, provided updates on the four contenders in his bullpen comparison article about competing with their main rival, Houston. Notes included about José Leclerc, Josh Sborz, David Robertson, and Kirby Yates. For this situation, spring results will matter. 

Boston Red Sox – Kenley Jansen will throw his first live batting practice on Wednesday per Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic on “X”. As of this writing, there were not updates on how it went. Hopefully, he will appear in a game soon.

Los Angeles Angels – Robert Stephenson completed his bullpen session “pain-free”, and will throw again this weekend, then could appear in game action next week. His status for Opening Day remains in flux, but he’s trended in the right direction. 

San Diego Padres – In AJ Cassavell’s Padres questions remain post for MLB.com, he questions if Yuki Matsui will be ready for Opening Day. If not, he will resume his set-up role during the first full week of the regular season, though back issues can linger. 

Quick Hits (Game Recaps from March 6)

  • Chicago Cubs – Entering in the fourth, Hector Neris allowed two hits, including a solo home run (Jo Adell), and recorded a strikeout. Adbert Alzolay retired the side in order in the fifth.
  • Chicago White Sox – Not only did Prelander Berroa strand both inherited runners in the eighth, but he also fired 1.1 clean frames, striking out three. By my count, he threw 18 pitches (66.7 Strike%) and generated six whiffs (33.3 SwStr%). He did face minor-league hitters for the Dodgers, but an impressive outing nonetheless.
  • Los Angeles Angels – Prospect Kelvin Caceres retired all three batters he faced and stranded an inherited runner in the fourth. Carlos Estévez allowed two hits and two runs (one earned) in the fifth.
  • Miami Marlins – Another sideways outing by Tanner Scott. He allowed three hits and three runs (one earned) before being removed from his outing. The good news is he threw 16 pitches (9 strikes – 56.3 Strike%) with three whiffs (18.8 SwStr%). Max Meyer logged two innings, giving up two hits and an unearned run while striking out one.
  • Pittsburgh Pirates – Getting tagged with his first blown save this spring, Aroldis Chapman allowed three hits and an earned run while striking out one in the bottom of the fifth.

Just a reminder, these will be posted and emailed daily. Links remain necessary for keeping the site running. Those with premium subscriptions receive this information with screenshots, charts, and no links. Thanks for the early groundswell of support, and be well.

Tiered Rankings (March 1, 2024)

With March upon us and draft season on the horizon, it’s time for the first run of tiered rankings. It’s difficult to choose which reliever will be the “closer” for a few teams, and many may prefer avoiding certain situations, like these three:

At present, there are three writers ready at the wheel for Closer Monkey fueled by Reliever Recon. Myself (Greg Jewett), Nate Marcum, and Aaron Pags. Being three individuals, there will be different relievers in each of our tiers, but they will be shared at the same time with quick thoughts or explanations of why our tier differs from the perceived consensus. As with any rankings, they are our own, not gospel. If anyone feels differently about a reliever, then it’s clear how they should handle him during their draft or auction. Enjoy.

Tier One

Greg

  • Edwin Díaz (NYM)
  • Jhoan Durán (MIN)
  • Devin Williams (MIL)
  • Emmanuel Clase (CLE)

Nothing crazy here. Strong “closer” candidates with ratio insulation, and three with strikeout upside. Many remain wary of Emmanuel Clase but he’s entering his Age-26 season coming off a career-worst WHIP courtesy of an inflated batting average on balls in play (BAbip). His team construct helps save chances accumulate. If he cuts his blown saves in half last year, he would have made a run at 50. Jhoan Durán remains the reliever I believe will turn in the breakout performance of the year. He could record 100 strikeouts, last year 473 of his 1,017 pitches were 100 m.p.h. or faster in 2023, most among MLB pitchers. He’s thrown 865 100-plus pitches since 2022, also the most among major-league pitchers.

Nate

  • Edwin Díaz (NYM)
  • Raisel Iglesias (ATL)
  • Emmanuel Clase (CLE)
  • Jhoan Durán (MIN)

The common names atop most draft boards when it’s time for RP.  A notable exception is Devin Williams, which is not a slight on his potential, but based on the potential for a trade when the Brewers are no longer contenders.  While the fire has supposedly been extinguished, I still have my reservations.  The name I have in my 1st Tier that could seem out of place to some is Raisel Iglesias.  Iglesias’ strikeout percentage was a tick down, but his ground ball rate was supported by a solid Braves infield.  As good a chance as there is in baseball for 30 saves, that is if the Braves don’t win every game by 10.

Aaron

  • Josh Hader (HOU)
  • Devin Williams (MIL)
  • Emmanuel Clase (CLE)
  • Camilo Doval (SFG)
  • Edwin Díaz (NYM)

The Doval Guy

So, I am the Doval guy! And it has nothing to do with his ability but is 100 percent about his stability. For me, he is one of five relievers with a less than one percent chance of losing their job to anyone on their team’s roster. That makes him a tier-one closer.
But also, Camilo Doval‘s 2023 season showcased him as a vital force for the San Francisco Giants, marked by impressive stats, including a 2.93 ERA over 67.2 innings and 87 strikeouts. Despite a rocky start and a notable streak of four consecutive blown saves, a first for a Giants closer, Doval demonstrated resilience and excellence, especially from May onwards, significantly contributing to the team’s midseason turnaround. His stellar performance, underscored by his All-Star selection, solidified his status as a key player, despite a late-season slump that raised questions about overuse.

Tier Two

Greg:

  • Raisel Iglesias (ATL)
  • Josh Hader (HOU)
  • Andrés Muñoz (SEA)
  • Camilo Doval (SFG)
  • Pete Fairbanks (TBR)
  • Jordan Romano (TOR)
  • David Bednar (PIT)

Some veterans mixed in with a little bit of upside. Recent news about Matt Brash means Andrés Muñoz could gain the primary save share like Paul Sewald held last year. If he notches 30 or more saves and remains healthy, he’s a top-five reliever in fantasy. There may be some migration toward the mean for David Bednar and Camilo Doval, but they each secured 39 saves last year. For Pete Fairbanks, it’s all about health. More innings yield more fantasy goodness. I’m likely the low man on Josh Hader. He’s seen his K-BB percentage decline in each of the last two years, he’s in a deep bullpen, and not recorded more than 60 innings since 2019.

**With the recent injury news about Bednar, he’s been moved to the end of this tier.**

Nate:

  • Devin Williams (MIL)
  • Josh Hader (HOU)
  • Pete Fairbanks (TBR)
  • David Bednar (PIT)
  • Evan Phillips (LAD)
  • Camilo Doval (SFG)
  • Andrés Muñoz (SEA)

This tier is where I will most likely do most of my RP fishing during drafts.  The concerns I have for Williams’ team security are minimal.  Hader may have his hiccups, but with a track record as long as his, the double-digit walk percentage in three of the last four years is a wart worth looking past.  The fact that he hasn’t had 60-plus innings means the days of 100 strikeouts are gone.  If I could get a full season out of Fairbanks guaranteed, he may appear in the first tier in 2025. The Rays’ neglect for a true closer may be over.  Evan Phillips may be the “outlier” in this tier for me.  Similar to Iglesias and others, his team construct is set to build up his save total “floor”, but may limit his “ceiling” with their offensive output.  Over the past two seasons, Phillips has a combined 1.59 ERA and 0.80 WHIP.  Andrés Muñoz’s value remains intact with the news of Matt Brash’s injury.  Both Camilo Doval and David Bednar are convenient RP1 anchors for those who want to cast their line into the second tier.

Aaron:

  • Jordan Romano (TOR)
  • Raisel Iglesias (ATL)
  • Alexis Díaz (CIN)
  • Jhoan Durán (MIN)
  • David Bednar (PIT)
  • Paul Sewald (ARI)
  • Evan Phillips (LAD)
  • Andrés Muñoz (SEA)

Durán’s Health


I know you can say, “But health…” for anyone, however, Jhoan Durán has a history that shouldn’t be dismissed quickly. He missed the 2020 season due to COVID-19 and experienced arm issues in 2021. Despite a strong start post-recovery, he struggled in June and was shut down for the season without undergoing surgery. In 2022, he showed promise in spring training, secured a spot on the Opening Day roster, and became a key bullpen arm, cautiously managing to avoid overuse. His performance in 2023 was strong, marked by a slight increase in ERA and WHIP but maintained a high strikeout rate, despite not being selected as an All-Star. But, he was unleashed more often than last year. His powerful pitching arm also raises concerns about potential injury risks, as has been noted in many studies of the past.

Tier Three

Greg

  • Alexis Díaz (CIN)
  • Evan Phillips (LAD)
  • Tanner Scott (MIA)
  • Ryan Helsley (STL)
  • Paul Sewald (ARI)
  • Craig Kimbrel (BAL)
  • Clay Holmes (NYY)
  • Adbert Alzolay (CHC)

If the Reds can keep Alexis Díaz fresh, he may finish the season strong, but it’s still an if. When viewing his end-of-year statistics, do not forget he owned a 2.10 ERA and 36 saves through his first 66 games (until September 15). Tanner Scott provides strikeout upside if the command gains hold. Evan Phillips represents the only qualified reliever to do this over the last two years. Ryan Helsley could be the steal in this tier if he’s healthy all season. Steady and unsexy options also lie in this tier like Craig Kimbrel, Paul Sewald, Clay Holmes, and Adbert Alzolay.

Nate

  • Paul Sewald (ARI)
  • Tanner Scott (MIA)
  • Ryan Helsley (STL)
  • Alexis Díaz (CIN)
  • Jordan Romano (TOR)
  • Clay Holmes (NYY)

The best “values” could be in my third tier.  Alexis Diaz flashed in his first season as “the guy” in Cincy.  Diaz’s 37 saves still only accounted for 70 percent of the Reds’ total saves.  Seeing how his second half compared to his first, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him with a similar team save percentage. Oliver Marmol turned to Ryan Helsley down the stretch of 2023 and was rewarded with a 0.77 ERA, a .108 batting average against, and a 0.86 WHIP.  There will be many who don’t trust the Cardinals’ to stick with Helsley, but I think they will. 

Aaron

  • Tanner Scott (MIA)
  • Clay Holmes (NYY)
  • Pete Fairbanks (TBR)
  • Craig Kimbrel (BAL)
  • José Alvarado (PHI)
  • Ryan Helsley (STL)
  • Kenley Jansen (BOS)

Tier Four

Greg:

  • Kenley Jansen (BOS)
  • José Alvarado (PHI)
  • Hunter Harvey (WSH)
  • Carlos Estévez (LAA)
  • Robert Suarez (SDP)
  • Alex Lange (DET)

Welcome into the volatile tier of relievers. This could be where many see a cliff during their drafts. Kenley Jansen could be a fallback option for many, but where he pitches will make a difference. A trade could move him up, or down in this process. José Alvarado has the velocity and skillset, but his pre-and-post-injury splits last year cannot be ignored. Carlos Estévez and Alex Lange may open the year as the preferred save option for their respective teams, but can they stay there?

Nate

  • Craig Kimbrel (BAL)
  • Adbert Alzolay (CHC)
  • Kenley Jansen (BOS)
  • José Alvarado (PHI)

If you don’t have your first reliever by now, let’s hold hands and say a prayer.  While there are many household names (Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen), it will require some guts to trust as your RP anchor.  Both of those two are in situations that are conducive to plenty of opportunities, but what they do with those opportunities is yet to be seen.   Jansen is also “most likely to screw up a good closer situation for another team” in 2024.

Alvarado will get the first crack this season, but injuries were rough last year, and we have Pags along with my favorite “closer in waiting”, Orion Kerkering lurking.  Say that five times fast.

Aaron

  • Robert Suarez (SDP)
  • Kyle Finnegan (WSH)
  • Mason Miller (OAK)
  • Alex Lange (DET)
  • Will Smith (KCR)
  • Adbert Alzolay (CHC)
  • Robert Stephenson (LAA)

Wild for Will

If you told me that I would ever be the high-man on Will Smith in reliever rankings, I would have laughed in your face. His fastball STINKS ON ICE! However, he always seems to wriggle his way into promising fantasy baseball situations. Kansas City is no different. Veteran presence during a rebuild is a must, especially in high leverage spots. Sure, a trade is always likely with the Royals and their relievers, but saves in April, May, June, and July can equate to value. Just jump off the bucking horse before it’s too late.

Tier Five

Greg

  • José Leclerc (TEX)
  • Kyle Finnegan (WSH)
  • Will Smith (KCR)
  • Yuki Matsui (SDP)
  • Mason Miller (OAK)
  • Tyler Kinley (COL)
  • John Brebbia (CWS)

Pick your poison in this tier. It’s sort of wide open and should be used as an end-game option during a build. For the “never pay for saves” crowd, this will be what it looks like at the end of your draft. Feeling lucky? From purely a skills perspective, Miller could be a steal in this tier if the A’s make him their primary save share. But it’s speculative until his manager anoints him.

Nate:

  • José Leclerc (TEX)
  • Alex Lange (DET)
  • Yuki Matsui (SDP)
  • Kyle Finnegan (WSH)

I would love to have one of these relievers as my third RP, but grabbing three RPs in a draft and still having balance is nearly impossible.  That being said, each of these as your RP2 could result in a full season of production, but most likely indigestion.  Alex Lange gets mentioned in the same breath as Mark Melancon, which is gross.  I can’t quit José Leclerc, but I acknowledge that he needs to throw strikes to keep his job.  Yuki Matsui could see his draft stock rise during the Spring, but I still think it could be an uphill battle to overtake Suarez.  I have Matsui here and not Suarez because I think Matsui will eventually take the job.  In Washington, it’s choose your stance.  Harvey is the better pitcher.  Finnegan has a “proven” track record of saves.

Aaron:

  • Hunter Harvey (WSH)
  • José Leclerc (TEX)
  • Jason Adam (TBR)
  • Ryan Pressly (HOU)
  • Hector Neris (CHC)
  • David Robertson (TEX)

Thanks for checking out our reliever tiers. If interested, check out Closer Monkey’s updated bullpen depth charts.

Spring Vibes, March 6; Debuts for Díaz and Holmes, Miller’s role for Oakland, Suarez ready, and more

New York Mets – Making his spring debut, Edwin Díaz retired the side in order while sitting 96-to-98 m.p.h. with his four-seam fastball per Tim Healey on “X”. 

New York Yankees – Making his spring debut, Clay Holmes fired a clean fourth, striking out one. He threw 11 pitches (8 strikes – 72.7 Strike percentage) with no whiffs. Bill Ladson, of MLB.com, also spoke with the closer about his pending free agency at the end of the season.

Oakland A’s – Martín Gallegos of MLB.com posted his five developments from a promising A’s camp, featuring his thoughts about the role of Mason Miller in the upcoming season. He’s made two appearances this spring, retiring five of six batters faced via strikeout (83.3 K%). Pretty, pretty, pretty good. 

San Diego Padres –  A much better outing on Tuesday for Robert Suarez. He worked a scoreless seventh inning, giving up a hit and striking out two on 12 pitches (66.7 Strike%) while producing four whiffs (33.3 SwStr%). He’s also featured by AJ Cassavell for MLB.com, titled ready to be the Padres closer. Kevin Acee, of The San Diego Union-Tribune, also reported Yuki Matsui threw a 30 pitch bullpen session, but the reliever would not speculate on his availability on Opening Day in South Korea. 

Seattle Mariners – Matt Brash played catch at 60 feet and made 25 throws from with no issues, reported by Ryan Divish on “X”. He also reported Gregory Santos did long toss and may throw off the mound in a few days. Stay tuned. 

Quick Hits

  • Arizona Diamondbacks – Paul Sewald fired a clean fifth, striking out one on 11 pitches (6 strikes – 54.5 Strike%) and two whiffs (18.2 SwStr%).
  • Cleveland Guardians – Emmanuel Clase tossed a scoreless fourth, walking one and striking out one. He’s made three appearances, posting a 1.00 WHIP with five strikeouts against one walk.
  • Milwaukee Brewers – A rare rough outing alert for Devin Williams. He allowed two hits, four earned runs, and two walks while striking out one in one–third of the fourth versus the Giants
  • Seattle Mariners – Andrés Muñoz fired a clean fourth. He’s made two appearances this spring and recorded two strikeouts with a 0.50 WHIP.

Spring Vibes, March 5: Bednar, Matsui and Brash updates (again), Scott implodes (again), game recaps, and more

Pittsburgh Pirates –  Finally addressing the elephant in the room, Alex Stumpfl posted on MLB.com about the lat injury that has shut down David Bednar from throwing. He remains upbeat, but the team will not let him throw for a “few days”. Invariably, how long it takes will affect his availability on Opening Day. For those drafting early, Bednar’s not concerned by the injury, but handcuffing him with Aroldis Chapman may be advisable, depending on roster spots available.

San Diego Padres – Making good progress after a back strain, Yuki Matsui will participate in Wednesday’s workout and could appear in two exhibition games before Opening Day per Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune. With things trending positively, fantasy players should monitor what type of workload the southpaw reliever can handle in the upcoming season.

Seattle Mariners – Some much needed good news from Mariners camp, according to Shannon Drayer of Seattle Sports, Matt Brash will resume his throwing regimen. It’s with cautious optimism, but here’s hoping he can progress without any setbacks and meet the mid-April target for a return, this leverage ladder desperately needs him. 

Miami Marlins – Tanner Scott pitches for Miami, F.L.A., spiked a bunch of sliders on Monday, walked four batters, did not record an out, saying hey Skip, take a walk on the wild side. In all seriousness, it was a rough outing against the Yankees resulting in a loss. Scott faced four batters, allowed three earned runs, and did not record an out while throwing 25 pitches (36 Strike percentage) with one whiff. Better days lie ahead, but for a reliever with command issues in his past, this will not placate fantasy players with concerns about regression. 

New York Mets – Sound the trumpets, Edwin Díaz will make his spring training debut on Tuesday (March 5), but on the Minor League fields. Per Anthony DiComo, Díaz has thrown multiple live batting practice sessions. If all goes well in his debut, he will see Grapefruit League action soon thereafter. Cue “Narco“, it’s almost time. 

Chicago White Sox –  Not only has Jordan Leasure caught the attention of the Closer Monkey staff, he’s also garnering praise from his manager, Pedro Grifol. In this tweet by Scott Merkin, MLB.com’s White Sox beat writer, it’s mentioned Leasure has plus-plus stuff. Not sure how Eno Sarris rates him, but the rookie reliever has a chance of making the roster in a veteran-laden leverage ladder.

Quick Hits

  • Baltimore Orioles – Rough outing alert, this one by Craig Kimbrel. He allowed five hits, including a home run, and four earned runs while striking out one in the fourth. This tweet displays his spring ERAs in past seasons. Breathe.
  • Cincinnati Reds – Alexis Díaz allowed two hits and two earned runs while striking out one in the fourth inning.
  • Oakland A’s – Mason Miller fired a clean sixth, striking out two. He’s made two clean appearances this spring and recorded five strikeouts of six batters faced (83.3 K%). Dany Jiménez tossed a clean seventh, striking out one. Through three clean outings, he’s recorded two strikeouts.
  • Texas Rangers – José Leclerc tossed a scoreless sixth, walking one and striking out one. By my count, he threw 15 pitches (60 Strike%) and generated three whiffs (20 SwStr%).
  • Toronto Blue Jays –  Jordan Romano suffered his first blown save allowing two hits and an earned run before being lifted in the fourth. Over his two-thirds of an inning, he threw 20 pitches (65 Strike%) with two whiffs (10 SwStr%).

Until next time, stay safe and be well.

Spring Vibes, March 4: Bednar’s injury, Mariners roster projection, Game Recaps, and more

Pittsburgh Pirates – After seeing a report on “X” regarding a lat issue for David Bednar, MLB.com’s injuries and roster moves tab provided some insight on the setback. He felt tightness during his throwing program, and the team will monitor his progress. He’s not appeared in a spring training contest yet. Depending on how long this persists may impact his being ready for Opening Day. This will put more focus on Aroldis Chapman as a handcuff. On Sunday, he fired a clean third, striking out one on 11 pitches (81.8 Strike percentage) and induced three whiffs (27.3 swinging strike rate).

Seattle Mariners – Taking a first run at a roster projection, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com posted some names off of fantasy radars. He also suggested Matt Brash could return by mid-April if his throwing program goes well. 

Quick Hits (Notes of Interest from games on March 3)

  • Atlanta Braves – Taking over in the fourth, Aaron Bummer gave up three hits and two runs (one earned) while striking out two. Daysbel Hernández fired a clean fifth, striking out two. A.J. Minter collected his first spring win, retiring the side in order in the sixth while striking out one. Pierce Johnson notched his first spring hold, yielding a hit during a scoreless seventh. Joe Jiménez navigated around a hit and a walk while recording all three outs via strikeout in the eighth.
  • Chicago Cubs – Hector Neris tossed a scoreless fourth, yielding a hit. He’s logged two appearances this spring and owns a 0.50 WHIP with one strikeout. Adbert Alzolay worked a scoreless fourth allowing a hit and striking out one. He’s also appeared in two contests and sports a 0.50 WHIP with two strikeouts.
  • Chicago White Sox –  Jordan Leasure worked a scoreless sixth, walking one and striking out two, with this clip courtesy of the Pitching Ninja showing his arsenal.
  • Los Angeles Angels – Suffering his first blown save this spring, Carlos Estévez served up a solo home run and struck out one in the third inning. Drew Pomeranz tossed a scoreless fourth, yielding a hit and striking out one. Adam Cimber retired the side in order in the fifth. Zach Plesac collected his second spring win. He logged two scoreless frames giving up a hit and a walk while striking out three.
  • Minnesota Twins – A better outing for Jhoan Durán (MIN), but he gave up two hits and recorded a strikeout in the third against the Rays. He threw 17 pitches (11 strikes – 64.7 Strike percentage) and induced four whiffs (23.5 swinging strike percentage).

Thanks for dropping in, stay safe and be well.