Sunday did not provide much volume, with only six relievers recording a win and five with saves. However, Miami and Minnesota won on walk-off home runs, while Toronto held on for an extra-inning victory in Seattle. Speaking of home runs, it will be the first feature in today’s three takeaways.
Three Takeaways
- Hader and home runs, part two: Whether bad luck or poor execution, Josh Hader has a home run issue this season. He’s converted 15 of 16 save chances, so he will not appear on the “hot seat,” especially as his team’s sixth highest-paid player. However, he allowed a walk-off home in Sunday’s loss, his eighth home run given up this year. This matches his home run total from 2022 in 63 fewer batters faced, and his .417 expected on-base average on contact (xwOBAcon) ranks in the bottom six percent of the league. Of more concern, his 41.7 hard-hit percentage allowed represents the second-highest rate of his career. He’s producing fewer ground balls and giving up more fly balls with a five percent rise in his pull percentage on batted balls. Hope lies in his 1.97 SIERA and 2.95 expected ERA (xERA) versus his current 4.15 ERA, but it’s the 20 percent home run per fly ball rate that should concern fantasy managers most. Here are his splits-by-pitch this year versus last, with highlighted trends:
Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/SoiKP/2/
- Bednar nearing his return: After completing a live batting practice session on Saturday, David Bednar will make rehab appearances with Triple-A Indianapolis. This may be timely since Aroldis Chapman suffered a blown save on Sunday and labored through a 40-pitch outing. He’s secured a win and a save in his last three games but has produced a 61.6 strike percentage with a 2.43 WHIP and a paltry seven percent swinging strike rate.
- Bigge, Bigge, Bigge, will he get strike three? The Cubs promoted reliever Hunter Bigge, although he has not made his MLB debut. He recorded six saves at Triple-A with 19 strikeouts against six walks (30.2 K-BB percentage) and a 0.686 WHIP. One would prefer seeing the walk percentage drop, but Lance Brozdowski, a talent evaluator I trust, likes his stuff; now, we will find out if it will translate into leverage events soon.
Next, our condensed game recaps cover Sunday’s high-leverage events of interest.
Closer CliffsNotes
American League
Baltimore Orioles – Shutting the door on his 23rd save, Craig Kimbrel tossed a scoreless ninth, preserving a three-run win in Oakland. He allowed a two-out single and recorded two strikeouts in his outing, throwing 12 pitches (75 Strike%) with three whiffs (25 SwStr%). He’s converted seven straight saves over seven scoreless appearances with 13 strikeouts against three walks since June 26.
- Yennier Cano secured his 23rd hold, working a scoreless eighth. He issued a walk and recorded two strikeouts.
- Jacob Webb notched his 12th hold, firing a clean seventh and striking out one.
Hierarchy remains: Craig Kimbrel | Yennier Cano | Cionel Pérez
Boston Red Sox – Preserving a combined shutout and taking over fifth place all-time in career saves (438), Kenley Jansen fired a clean ninth while striking out one against the Yankees. He’s converted 18 of 19 save chances this year and has been scoreless over his last 10 appearances with a 0.93 WHIP over 9.2 innings. He threw 13 pitches (9 strikes – 69.2 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (23.1 SwStr%).
- Justin Slaten notched his tenth hold, tossing a scoreless eighth, issuing a walk, and striking out one.
Hierarchy remains: Kenley Jansen | Justin Slaten | Greg Weissert
Chicago White Sox – A brutal loss and blown save for Michael Kopech. It started with a leadoff walk, a leverage mortal sin. No one covered third on a bunt, letting Vidal Brújan reach the base with one out. Josh Bell hit an opposite-field double just over Tommy Pham’s glove with two outs and two strikes. This was followed by an intentional walk, a balk, and Jake Burger’s pinch-hit walk-off three-run home run. This marked Kopech’s eighth loss and fifth blown save.
- John Brebbia notched his 12th hold, tossing a scoreless eighth, allowing a hit and striking out one.
- Tanner Banks gave up a hit, two earned runs, and a walk for his sixth hold in the seventh inning.
Hierarchy remains: Michael Kopech | John Brebbia | Tanner Banks
Cleveland Guardians – Clase closed, though the Guardians’ closer allowed an earned run in his appearance. Emmanuel Clase secured his American League-leading 27th save, giving up a one-out double by Matt Chapman and an RBI fielder’s choice groundout. He threw 18 pitches (15 strikes – 83.3 Strike%) without inducing a whiff. He lost his nine-game scoreless streak but has converted his last 14 save chances since May 20.
- Hunter Gaddis retired the side in the eighth for his 18th hold.
- Tim Herrin worked a clean seventh and struck out one, notching his tenth hold.
- Cade Smith collected his fourth win, firing a clean sixth and striking out one.
Hierarchy remains: Emmanuel Clase | Hunter Gaddis | Scott Barlow
Houston Astros – With the score tied in the bottom of the ninth, Josh Hader suffered his fifth loss, giving up a walk-off home run by Christian Vazquez. Hader has allowed a home run in consecutive outings, three of his last four, and five of his last seven. Placing the sixth-highest-paid player on the “hot seat” will be tough, but he will be on watch through the end of the first half.
- Ryan Pressly held on for a scoreless eighth, navigating around a hit and a walk.
- Bryan Abreu tossed a scoreless seventh, yielding a hit and striking out one.
- Bryan King gave up a hit and struck out one in a scoreless sixth.
Hierarchy remains: Josh Hader | Ryan Pressly | Bryan Abreu
Minnesota Twins – Working around a lead-off single by Yainer Diaz and a two-out walk, Jhoan Durán kept the game tied. He threw 22 pitches (14 strikes – 63.6 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (13.6 SwStr%) while striking one against the Astros. He collected his fourth win courtesy of a walk-off home run in the bottom of the inning. He owns a modest five-game scoreless streak and has been scoreless in 11 of his last 12 contests.
- Griffin Jax tossed a scoreless eighth, allowing a single and striking out two.
- Josh Staumont retired the side in the seventh, reaching 101 m.p.h. on the radar.
Hierarchy remains: Jhoan Durán | Griffin Jax | Jorge Alcala
Seattle Mariners—In the top of the tenth, Collin Snider suffered his first loss, allowing Daulton Varsho’s go-ahead RBI single, which scored the “place” runner.
- Andrés Muñoz retired the side in the ninth, facing Toronto’s 1-2-3 hitters. He threw nine pitches (55.6 Strike%) and did not produce a whiff.
- Austin Voth worked a clean eighth, striking out one.
- Ryne Stanek allowed two hits, an earned run, and a walk while striking out one in the seventh.
Hierarchy remains: Andrés Muñoz | Ryne Stanek | Trent Thornton
Toronto Blue Jays – With a one-run lead in the bottom of the tenth, Génesis Cabrera held on for his second save. He navigated around a hit and a walk while striking out one, inducing the game-ending flyout with the bases loaded.
- Chad Green collected his second win, working around his bases-loaded situation for a scoreless ninth. He gave up two hits and a walk while striking out two, throwing 22 pitches (16 strikes—72.7 Strike%) with four whiffs (18.2 SwStr%).
- Brendon Little stranded the bases loaded in the eighth, inducing an inning-ending J.P. Crawford groundout.
- Zach Pop allowed a hit batter and two walks (one intentional) during his two-thirds of the eighth.
- Nate Pearson retired the side in the seventh and recorded one strikeout.
Hierarchy remains: Chad Green | Trevor Richards | Nate Pearson
National League
Chicago Cubs – Pressed into action with the bases loaded and two outs, Héctor Neris produced a game-ending strikeout of Zach Neto, preserving the combined shutout and securing his 12th save on four pitches. This extended his scoreless streak to five games, and he’s recorded nine strikeouts against two walks in his last 4.1 innings.
- Luke Little created this save situation, allowing two hits and a walk during his two-thirds of the ninth.
- Porter Hodge stranded two runners in the seventh and retired five straight hitters, securing his second hold.
Hierarchy remains: Héctor Neris | Tyson Miller | Porter Hodge
Cincinnati Reds – Entering with his team down by one, Alexis Díaz did not fare well in a non-save outing, though his defense did him no favors. Things started well with Díaz recording two quick strikeouts, then Gio Urshela reached on a Noelvi Marte error, followed by Zach McKinstry’s two-run home run. Jake Rogers produced a two-out single, stole second base, and scored on a Parker Meadows RBI single, with the inning ending on a caught stealing. Díaz threw 23 pitches (14 strikes – 60.8 Strike%) and induced two whiffs. His final line was three hits, three runs (zero earned), and two strikeouts.
- Buck Farmer worked a clean top of the ninth, striking out one.
Hierarchy remains: Alexis Díaz | Fernando Cruz | Sam Moll
Miami Marlins – Benefiting from his team’s walk-off rally, JT Chargois collected his first win. He allowed a hit during a scoreless ninth with a one-run deficit.
- Andrew Nardi tossed a scoreless eighth, walking one and striking out one.
- Calvin Faucher logged two scoreless frames and recorded two strikeouts.
- Declan Cronin gave up two hits, two earned runs, and a walk while striking out two in the fifth.
Updated Hierarchy: Tanner Scott | A.J. Puk | Andrew Nardi
Milwaukee Brewers – Making a non-save appearance, Trevor Megill tossed a scoreless bottom of the ninth, closing a seven-run win over the Dodgers. He allowed a two-out single by James Outman and recorded all three outs via strikeout. He threw 16 pitches (62.5 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (18.8 SwStr%). He owns a 10-game scoreless streak and converted all six save chances with 10 strikeouts against one walk in his last 9.1 innings.
- Elvis Peguero fired a clean bottom of the eighth, striking out the side.
- Jakob Junis collected his first win, giving up three hits and two earned runs while striking out three over 2.2 innings as the “bulk follower.”
- Devin Williams will throw a live bullpen session on Tuesday and could head out on rehab assignment after he’s cleared.
Hierarchy remains: Trevor Megill | Joel Payamps | Bryan Hudson
New York Mets – Despite suffering his fifth blown save in the bottom of the eighth, Edwin Díaz collected his third win courtesy of a two-run rally by his teammates in the top of the ninth. He was summoned with two runners on and two outs in the eighth. After walking Joshua Palacios, Díaz allowed Nick Gonzales’ two-RBI single, ceding the lead. In the ninth, the Mets’ closer retired the side in order, preserving the one-run comeback win. He threw 22 pitches (12 strikes – 54.5 Strike%) without inducing a whiff.
- Dedniel Núñez was credited with his sixth hold but allowed two hits, which resulted in two earned runs while striking out two in the eighth.
- Reed Garrett worked a scoreless seventh, giving up a hit and striking out one.
Hierarchy remains: Edwin Díaz | Dedniel Núñez | Reed Garrett
Pittsburgh Pirates – With a one-run lead in the top of the ninth, Aroldis Chapman suffered his fourth loss and third blown save while struggling with his command. His outing began with a lead-off walk, a leverage no-no, followed by a Harrison Bader single and two strikeouts, with a wild pitch moving up both runners. Then things went sideways. A Jose Iglesias loaded the bases, and Francisco Lindor produced a go-ahead, two RBI single. After issuing another walk, Chapman was removed. He finished with two hits, two earned runs, and three walks while striking out two over two-thirds of the ninth.
- Kyle Nicolas retired J.D. Martinez, stranding the bases-loaded situation.
- Colin Holderman gave up two hits, an earned run, and two walks while striking out one in the eighth.
- Carmen Mlodzinski worked a scoreless seventh, yielding a hit and striking out one.
Adjusted Hierarchy: Aroldis Chapman | Colin Holderman | Carmen Mlodzinski
Vulture Save Option for Monday, July 8
- Scott Barlow (CLE): Clase and Gaddis have appeared in consecutive games.
- Colin Holderman (PIT): Chapman threw 40 pitches on Sunday and has allowed at least a run in three straight outings.
- Adam Ottavino (NYM): The Mets’ hierarchy pitched on back-to-back days this weekend.
Vulture Save Stash for Tuesday, July 9
- Fernando Cruz (CIN): If Alexis Díaz pitches today, it should be Cruz for the vulture save on Tuesday.
- Jorge Alcala (MIN): If Durán and Jax make appearances today, Alcala would be in line for the save in tomorrow’s contest.
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