Although things in the American League feel more unsettled, in the National League, there is a larger divide between the teams, with no team closer than three games to the last Wild Card position entering play on July 10, and already three teams behind by double digits. Here are the updated standings from MLB.com:
The weekend leading up to the All-Star break and the week and a half immediately following it will be paramount for teams in limbo regarding how to handle the trade deadline. Which brings their playoff odds into the conversation. Because sites can see things differently, the updated playoff odds from Fangraphs and Baseball Reference. First, Fangraphs:
And, from Baseball Reference:
This post will try to identify players who could be traded in the coming weeks, along with roster notes of interest for each National League team.
Trade Deadline Glossary
BUY+ = A reliever with a strong chance (50 percent or higher) of becoming a closer after the trade deadline.
BUY = A reliever with a slight chance (20 percent or higher) of becoming a closer after the trade deadline.
SELL = A reliever with a slight chance (20 percent or lower) of losing the closer role by the trade deadline.
SELL+ = A reliever wth a strong chance (50 percent or higher) of losing the closer role as a result of the trade deadline.
TL;DR
BUY+: Luke Weaver (NYM); Justin Martinez (ARI)
BUY: Michael Petersen (MIA); Max Kranick (WSH); Abner Uribe (MIL); George Soriano (STL); Luis Gastelum (STL); Jeremiah Estrada (SD)
SELL: Pete Fairbanks (MIA); Daniel Palencia (CHC); Riley O’Brien (STL); Paul Sewald (ARI)
SELL+: Gregory Soto (PIT)
National League East
- Tyler Kinley has a $5.5 million team option.
- 2027 Free Agent: Raisel Iglesias
Following a strong start, the team struggled in June. Still, the playoff odds remain high on both sites for Atlanta, and they could be buyers, but the bullpen will not be a priority unless the news on Robert Suarez takes a turn for the worse:
BUY/SELL: None
- 2027 Free Agent: Pete Fairbanks
On the other end of the spectrum, the Marlins racked up 20 wins during June, catapulting into postseason consideration. There is still a half-season remaining, so things can change. If they fade, Fairbanks will be moved, but his relationship with Peter Bendix implies the veteran closer will get a say in where he’s traded. If the Marlins buy, upgrading the closer role should be a priority.
SELL: Pete Fairbanks; BUY: Michael Petersen
- 2027 Free Agents: A.J. Minter; Brooks Raley
Determining how deep the deadline sale goes will depend on the next couple of weeks. However, not only do the Mets have two left-handed chips for teams trying to take down the Dodgers, but if Luke Weaver becomes available, he could be an eighth-inning reliever on many contending teams and even a closer if the right situation presents itself. With other teams in limbo, the Mets can control a portion of the reliever market by dealing Weaver, Minter, and Raley.
BUY+: Luke Weaver
- 2027 Free Agents: José Alvarado; Tim Mayza
Pushing its chips in last year for Jhoan Duran has changed the dynamics of this leverage ladder. He’s been dominant. If the team gets Brad Keller back, targeting bullpen depth makes sense, but it will not be a priority.
BUY/SELL: None
- Max Kranick has an $800 thousand team option.
Entering game play on July 10, no team has more save opportunities (54) or blown saves (25) than the Nationals. Cutting the blown saves in half would change the trajectory of their turnaround this season. Bullpens matter, but the fluid approach with relievers off the waiver wire has not held leads. It may be a year too early to add veteran relievers, but they could be in play before the trade deadline in smaller deals seeking consistency. Eddy Yean had an intriguing debut, but was demoted the next day. He’s worth tracking. Because there hasn’t been a closer in usage patterns, it’s tough sledding. However, if Kranick does well in his rehab outings:
BUY: Max Kranick
National League Central
- Hunter Harvey has a mutual option for $8 million, Caleb Thielbar has a mutual option for $6 million, and Jacob Webb has a team option at $2.5 million.
- 2027 Free Agent: Hoby Milner
Much of the team’s approach will depend on Daniel Palencia. When can he return after the All-Star break, and can he remain healthy? A reliever capable of setting up or closing when necessary should be a priority add, but the team also has needs in starting pitching. Here is his most recent update from MLB.com:
Only because injuries have been an issue:
SELL: Daniel Palencia
- Emilio Pagán has a $10 million player option. Pierce Johnson has an $8 million player option.
- 2027 Free Agents: Brock Burke; Caleb Ferguson
After Terry Francona guided them to the playoffs, a return trip seemed in the offing, but injuries and performance have derailed these plans. While the team has two left-handed relievers who could be moved, teams will prefer Burke. The team and Pagán have mutual regard for each other, so I bet he stays and opts in for next season. As for Burke and Ferguson, they should keep a go bag packed.
BUY/SELL: None
- No options or pending free agents
Constantly turning over the roster simplifies contract situations. There are concerns about Trevor Megill and his workload; he has not thrown more than 47 innings in any regular season in the majors and enters July 10 with 36 innings banked. Abner Uribe has proven capable of filling in if needed, and Aaron Ashby leads all relievers with 11 wins. Keeping this triumvirate fresh will be a priority ahead of the playoffs, so adding one or two ahead of the trade deadline makes sense. Only because the injury issues in the past have caused concern:
BUY: Abner Uribe
- 2027 Free Agents: Gregory Soto; Dennis Santana
What were thought to be potential co-closers for the season could be traded ahead of the deadline if necessary. However, if the team goes for it, adding a veteran reliever with closer experience makes sense. Although he may have already lost the role:
SELL+: Gregory Soto
- Ryne Stanek has a $6 million team option.
- 2027 Free Agent: JoJo Romero
Already exceeding expectations this season, the team’s handling of the trade deadline will be intriguing. Will the team buy and sell? Could closer Riley O’Brien be moved if it’s a seller’s market? He’s under team control through 2030, but will be 32 before the start of next season. If that happened, would the team shift a player on the roster into the ninth inning or try one of its young guns? For now:
SELL: Riley O’Brien; BUY: George Soriano; BUY: Luis Gastelum
National League West
- 2027 Free Agents: Paul Sewald; Jonathan Loáisiga; A.J. Puk; Ryan Thompson; Taylor Clarke; Kevin Ginkel
Mike Hazen maintains he wants to add to the roster before the trade deadline, but the team will dictate how he proceeds. If they are not within reach of a playoff spot, teams will be circling for the bevy of veterans that may be made available.
SELL: Paul Sewald; BUY+: Justin Martinez
- Antonio Senzatela has a $14 million team option.
Although he has struggled in recent appearances, a team will take a chance on Senzatela, then make him a free agent at the end of the season. Others could be made available and would get the free Coors bump. Since there has not been a closer this season:
BUY/SELL: None
- 2027 Free Agents: Alex Vesia; Evan Phillips; Blake Treinen; Brusdar Graterol
Evan Phillips has been activated. As for the trade deadline, once Edwin Díaz returns, the Dodgers will deploy a “superpen” for the postseason but may manage workloads closely during the regular season.
But it may be a quiet trade deadline for relievers, though a depth piece would not hurt.
BUY/SELL: None
- 2027 Free Agents: Adrian Morejon; Jason Adam
There is not predicting what A.J. Preller will do, but with a depleted farm system and a multitude of injured starting pitchers, the bullpen may not be a priority, but the team has been linked to Aroldis Chapman. How does one overcome a weak starting pitcher? Shorten the game with the bullpen. If the team craters, the Padres could get nice returns for Morejon and Adam as a fallback option. On the other hand, this column by Mark Feinsand intimates Miller could be put on the trade block if the Padres drift from the playoff picture continues. He would not lose his closer role, though he did last season, but:
BUY/SELL: BUY: Jeremiah Estrada
- Rowan Wick has an $800,000 team option for 2027.
One of the weakest bullpens does not have the right fits for contenders, meaning it will be more of the same for the Giants unless they get an upside arm in trades for their positional players on the market. Keaton Winn and Jason Foley could be activated soon to replenish the bullpen.
BUY/SELL: None
These will change as the news cycle churns ahead of the trade deadline. Be sure to stick with us through August 3 for all the latest updates regarding high-leverage relievers.
Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community. Stay safe and be well.
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