With one game in the books for the regular season, it’s clear fantasy players overpaid for Aaron Judge. All kidding aside, there will be movement across all formats this weekend after teams’ plans for the high-leverage innings are executed, which will affect valuation of relievers. In Wednesday’s contest, Camilo Doval retired the side and recorded one whiff, completing a combined shutout. Brent Headrick allowed a hit and a walk while striking out one in the eighth. Jake Bird retired both batters in the seventh, one via strikeout.
On the other side of the outcome, three Giants’ relievers posted scoreless appearances. As the first reliever in, Keaton Winn worked a scoreless top of the sixth, issuing a walk and striking out two. J.T. Brubaker logged two innings, allowing a hit and a walk while striking out one. Caleb Kilian fired a clean ninth, striking out one. He threw 10 pitches (60 Strike%) and induced one whiff.
Kilian and Winn will be pivotal for their team’s success if they can provide quality relief innings. Focusing on Kilian, he’s adapted well as a reliever and it’s enhanced his velocity working in short bursts:
He earned a roster spot with an 11:2 K:BB (25 K-BB%) across 9.1 innings with a 0.86 WHIP, an 11.9 percent swinging strike rate, and a 67.4 strike percentage. Here are his splits by pitch according to Statcast in this sample:
One would prefer seeing a higher whiff rate on his pitches, but if he starts using his knuckle-curve and slider more, there’s room for growth. He’s definitely worth tracking for ancillary save chances as the season progresses.
Some sleepers for eventual saves will be a theme after going through what to watch in today’s contests.
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What To Watch For on March 26
- How do the Pirates handle a save situation? What inning or lineup pocket does Dennis Santana face?
- Does Trevor Megill receive the first save chance?
- Will the Nationals use Clayton Beeter for a save chance, or will it be strictly a matchup-based approach?
- Are the Twins using a co-closer concept with Cole Sands and Taylor Rogers?
- How does Emilio Pagán look? His spring was not stellar, but he’s a veteran.
- Can Kenley Jansen move one step closer to history with a save? Will he be able to hold off Will Vest over the course of the season as the primary save option?
- Which Rays’ reliever gets the first save opportunity?
- How does Robert Garcia perform in a save chance? Or will it go to Chris Martin?
- Oli Marmol claims any of four leverage relievers can be used for saves, which one does he call on first?
- Will Paul Sewald be used as the closer until A.J. Puk can return in June?
Relievers on the Radar
American League
Carter Baumler (TEX)
- Spring Statistics: 9.1 innings, 10:2 K:BB (22.9 K-BB%), 0.64 WHIP, 9.1 swinging strike percentage, 65.2 strike percentage
Given his limited experience in the minors and coming off an injury-shortened season, it’s unknown if fatigue will be a factor as the season progresses. However, he flashed velocity and can miss bats with his arsenal. In his last appearance this spring, one notes he trusts his plus-curve:
How he handles hitter adjustments and fares in leverage events will determine if he can earn a larger leverage share, though this bullpen has a much easier pathway towards one.
Luinder Avila (KC)
He was optioned, but if the team suffers an injury or needs reinforcements at the backend of games, Avila could return soon. In 14 games last season, he posted a 0.93 WHIP with 16 strikeouts versus six walks (17.9 K-BB%), and an 11.5 percent swinging strike rate. His curve generated a robust 20.6 swinging strike percentage and a .131 weighted on-base average (wOBA). Improved command of his four-seam fastball could pave the way for saves in the second half.
Jack Perkins (ATH)
His spring results were muddled by a couple of rough outings as a starting pitcher. He was optioned, but if he’s working as a reliever, he could be a force when he’s recalled. His last spring outing featured a scoreless inning, giving up a hit and striking out three against Seattle:
He recorded three saves last year and a 0.92 WHIP as a reliever. Some patience may be required, but if he’s a reliever upon recall, he’s worth monitoring. His teammate, Elvis Alvarado could be a factor in early season save chances. For him, it’s all about command. He has the velocity to be effective in the late innings, but his 60.8 strike percentage and 12 percent walk rate in his rookie season requires improvement.
Also worth tracking:
- Marco Raya (MIN)
- Carlos Lagrange (NYY)
National League
Matt Svanson (STL)
- Spring Statistics: 8 innings, 7:1 K:BB (19.4 K-BB%), 9.6 percent swinging strike rate, 65.8 strike percentage
He’s already on fantasy manager radars, but can he leapfrog Riley O’Brien for the preferred right-handed leverage option? It’s definitely possible. Svanson led all Cardinals’ relievers in ERA after the All-Star break (1.13) and finished sixth in MLB. He’s also 44-for-46 in professional save chances (minors), and a perfect 33-for-33 with the St. Louis franchise.
Connor Phillips (CIN)
- Spring Statistics: 10 innings, 11:6 K:BB (11.6 K-BB%), 1.40 WHIP, 12.6 percent swinging strike rate, 60.9 strike percentage
While his numbers do not jump off the page, and he struggled against left-handed hitters last year, his last five appearances were scoreless with seven strikeouts versus zero walks, a 0.40 WHIP, and a 68 strike percentage. Here are his splits by pitch in this sample:
Emilio Pagán and Tony Santillan incurred heavy workloads last season. If they struggle this year, Phillips could emerge as an option for saves.
Mason Montgomery (PIT)
- Spring Statistics: 6.2 innings, 9:4 K:BB (16.1 K-BB%), 17.1 percent swinging strike rate, 55.7 strike percentage
He was on our radars last year, but could not carry over the small sample success from 2024 and was demoted by Tampa Bay. A fresh restart with the Pirates may ensure he gets save opportunities later this season. Montgomery was highlighted in this post by David Adler for MLB.com:
It’s never been a question of stuff for the hard-throwing southpaw, rather it’s command. His strike percentage splits as a major leaguer:
- 2024: 13.5 percent walk rate, 63.5 strike percentage
- 2025: 12.9 percent walk rate, 65.1 strike percentage
- Career: 13 percent walk rate, 64.8 strike percentage
A strike percentage above 66 percent is preferred, and could unlock a new level of effectiveness. If this happens, he’s a worthy option for save chances at some point this year.
Isaac Mattson (PIT)
- Spring Statistics: 7.1 innings, 8:1 K:BB (28 K-BB%), 0.41 WHIP, 14 percent swinging strike rate, 67.3 strike percentage
Mattson emerged in the second half last year, and may be primed for a strong season as a set-up reliever. Plus, with the news the Pirates do not have a defined roadmap during save situations, he could enter the mix for them this year. Montgomery gets the hype, but Mattson has been steadier with his command metrics.
These options do not include relievers returning from injuries, but in leagues with injured list spots, fantasy players can stash Ben Joyce, A.J. Puk, and Justin Martinez.
Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community. Stay safe, and be well.
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