With Opening Day within days, it’s time to focus on spring results and potential changes in bullpen hierarchies with draft season in full swing. Today’s ledger features the Spring Training games from Friday.
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When a closer gets sidelined by an injury, the potential replacement becomes the focal point of the fantasy community, especially when his 308 strikeouts since 2022 are the most in baseball among relievers. Only Emmanuel Clase (345) has appeared in more games than Bryan Abreu (306) since 2021.
Durability has been a calling card for the Astros’ reliever on the precipice of free agency at the end of the season. In the last 20 Main Events since March 7, he has an ADP of 159.7, with a minimum pick of 136, and in Online Championships, his ADP is 181.33, with a minimum pick of 122. These are steep prices for a fill-in reliever without a clear timeline.
He made his seventh appearance on Friday, and first on consecutive days this spring. He escaped with a scoreless top of the sixth against the Marlins. He threw 27 pitches (13 strikes – 48.1 Strike%) and only induced one whiff.
And, his illustrator:
His command has been shaky all spring. He’s issued seven walks versus five strikeouts (-6.2 K-BB percentage) through seven games and has only recorded a 56.9 strike percentage in them.
Understanding he’s not at his maximum velocity, the strike percentage below 57 percent, and a swinging strike rate under seven warrant attention. Here are his strike percentages and swinging strike rates for the previous three seasons:
- 2025: 62 Strike%, 17.8 SwStr%
- 2024: 64.5 Strike%, 14.4 SwStr%
- 2023: 62 Strike%, 16.8 SwStr%
He’s never been elite in his command, but a base expectation of a strike percentage of 62 will be necessary for success this season. Of his 116 pitches this spring, his results by pitch using Statcast’s data:
- Four-seam fastball: 57 pitches, 3:3 K:BB, four whiffs (7 SwStr%), 14.3 percent whiff rate, 14 batted ball events, 28.6 percent hard hit rate
- Slider: 52 pitches, 2:4 K:BB, four whiffs (7.7 SwStr%), 26.7 percent whiff rate, four batted ball events, 75 percent hard hit rate
- Change-up: 6 pitches, zero whiffs, two batted ball events, 50 percent hard hit rate
This may be an overreaction, but he had a 15.2 percent swinging strike rate with his four-seam fastball last season and a 21.4 swinging strike percentage with his slider. Perhaps the biggest issue will be getting him into save situations with a depleted leverage ladder projected for Opening Day. Stay tuned.
Now for the remaining results of interest from Friday’s spring slate.
Spring Vibes
American League
Kansas City Royals
Brought in for the bottom of the fifth, Matt Strahm retired the side on 13 pitches (8 strikes – 61.5 Strike%).
Carlos Estévez worked a scoreless sixth, giving up a hit. He nibbled, throwing 15 pitches (8 strikes – 53.3 Strike%) without recording a whiff, reaching a maximum velocity of 91.6 miles per hour.
Following six appearances between the WBC and spring, he has a negative 10.7 K-BB% (one strikeout against four walks) with a 1.83 WHIP. First
When running a search on his pitches at Statcast, the WBC games are not included, but it’s still striking:
In his spring outings, he has a 4.9 swinging strike percentage with his four-seam fastball, a 13 percent swinging strike rate with the slider, and a 16.7 swinging strike percentage with the change-up. It’s not just velocity; his whiff rate and command suffer when he’s below 94 miles per hour with his fastball.
Minnesota Twins
After a flurry of roster moves, including free-agent opt-outs by Liam Hendriks and Andrew Chafin, the Twins used four of the remaining leverage options in this contest.
Justin Topa allowed a hit and recorded two strikeouts during two-thirds scoreless in the sixth. Anthony Banda stranded a runner while retiring his only batter in the sixth. Taylor Rogers worked 1.1 scoreless frames and issued a walk. Cole Sands stranded a runner and retired both batters in the eighth. Could this mix-and-match approach be a sneak preview of the regular season?
Matthew Leach of MLB.com shared these thoughts from manager Derek Shelton about the bullpen:
Avoid this leverage ladder if possible.
New York Yankees
In his first appearance since the WBC, David Bednar fired a clean top of the sixth and recorded two strikeouts versus the Orioles. He threw 13 pitches (10 strikes – 76.9 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (23.1 SwStr%).
Combining his spring results with his WBC outings, he’s worked nine innings, recording a 0.778 WHIP with 10 strikeouts versus one walk (25.7 K-BB%).
National League
Arizona Diamondbacks
It was a better evening for the maligned bullpen. Ryan Thompson retired the side at the top of the sixth on 11 pitches (54.5 Strike%). Kevin Ginkel tossed a clean seventh, striking out one, throwing 11 pitches (63.6 Strike%) with three whiffs (27.3 SwStr%). Bryce Jarvis collected his first win, firing a clean eighth and striking out two. Andrew Hoffmann notched his first save this spring with a clean ninth.
Atlanta Braves
In order of appearance, Joel Payamps retired all five batters, two via strikeout, for his second hold. Raisel Iglesias allowed a hit and struck out two in a scoreless eighth. He threw 16 pitches (11 strikes – 68.8 Strike%) and generated five whiffs (31.3 SwStr%).
This marked his fifth appearance, during which he owns a 1.285 WHIP with seven strikeouts versus zero walks (35 K-BB%). Robert Suarez tossed a scoreless ninth, giving up a hit and striking out two on 19 pitches (11 strikes – 57.9 Strike%) with two whiffs.
He’s also recorded five outings, posting a 1.00 WHIP with nine strikeouts against one walk (40 K-BB%).
There have not been any reports about roles since Alex Anthopoulos named Iglesias the closer, but this in an intriguing usage pattern. It may be a blip, but it would cause a seismic shift if Suarez is the primary save option.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Although he was credited with his first hold this spring, Edwin Díaz allowed two hits, including Ramón Laureano’s two-run home run, over his two-thirds of an inning.
Díaz threw 10 pitches (80 Strike%) and induced two whiffs. This was his first appearance in six days, and he’s posted a 1.235 WHIP with nine strikeouts against two walks (29.2 K-BB%) through 5.2 innings.
Miami Marlins
Closing out his first spring save, Calvin Faucher retired the side and recorded one strikeout. Pete Fairbanks tossed a clean eighth, striking out one on 16 pitches (11 strikes – 68.8 Strike%) with four whiffs (25 SwStr%).
Through seven combined appearances, he owns a 0.429 WHIP with nine strikeouts versus two walks (29.2 K-BB%) across seven innings. Fantasy players will not mind this happening in a spring contest, but if Fairbanks gets used in the eighth inning on Opening Day, they will have pitchforks and torches on Twitter.
San Francisco Giants
(SS vs. KC) – Shutting the door on his first spring save, Ryan Walker fired a clean top of the ninth and recorded one strikeout against the Royals. He threw seven pitches (85.7 Strike%) and did not produce a whiff.
Through seven spring outings, he’s racked up eight strikeouts versus zero walks (32 K-BB%) with a minuscule 0.429 WHIP across seven innings.
News, Notes, and Observations
Los Angeles Angels
As for the closer role, in the remaining spring training questions post by Rhett Bollinger at MLB.com:
The Athletics
Completing a four-run margin against a Cubs split-squad, Michael Kelly notched his first spring save, scattering two hits and walking one while striking out two. Mark Leiter Jr. secured his third hold, working a scoreless seventh, giving up a hit and striking out two. He threw 11 pitches (8 strikes – 72.7 Strike%) and induced two whiffs (18.2 SwStr%).
He’s made seven appearances this spring, posting a 1.286 WHIP with eight strikeouts versus three walks (17.3 K-BB%).
One roster decision was made when the team optioned Tyler Ferguson. Martín Gallegos covered the remaining relievers the team must decide between for MLB.com:
One factor will be how the team handles Luis Medina and his plus velocity, given his lack of experience as a reliever. Plus, a dark horse for saves (Jack Perkins) will be a reliever, which makes him an intriguing stash play:
Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community. Stay safe, and be well.
Statistical Credits: