Closer Monkey’s Leverage Ledger | August 25

It’s not as simple as saying there will be a changing of the guard for San Francisco. However, after the team rallied for a one-run lead in Milwaukee at the top of the ninth, Ryan Walker received the save opportunity. He worked around Sal Frelick’s two-out single and recorded two strikeouts during a scoreless outing, recording his 11th save. He threw 22 pitches (63.6% strike rate) and produced three whiffs (13.6 SwStr%).

This marks his first save since May 25, and his recent stretch of scoreless outings, six since August 6, with eight strikeouts across 6.1 innings. After the game, this note was shared on X:

Results in August favor Walker, but this does not assure any change unless the injury issues linger:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/0wx1j/1/

It’s difficult for fantasy managers since Rodríguez was a breakout performer in the first half. However, his splits by inning are interesting:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/zg3b0/1/

If Rodríguez returns to save situations and performs well, this will revert, but for now:

Updated Hierarchy: *Ryan Walker | *Randy Rodríguez | José Buttó

*= closer-by-committee

Sunday’s full slate yielded five wins by relievers and seven saves while suffering four losses. There were two ancillary saves and only one requiring more than three outs. Here are yesterday’s saves in condensed form:

For the save streamers, a light forecast:

Vulture Save Option for August 25

  • Abner Uribe (MIL): Trevor Megill threw 34 pitches on Sunday and has appeared in three of the previous four games. 

Here are the remaining leverage events of interest from Sunday.

Leverage Ledger

Atlanta Braves – The good news is that Raisel Iglesias secured his 22nd save, and 11th in the second half, which leads all MLB relievers. However, he had his 13-game scoreless streak snapped, allowing three consecutive one-out singles, including an RBI by Juan Soto, before retiring the next two hitters, preserving the one-run win. He threw 24 pitches (62.5% strike rate) and induced one whiff.

Over his last 14 games, he has converted all 11 saves while posting a 0.571 WHIP with 12 strikeouts (24 K-BB%) across 14 innings.

  • Tyler Kinley collected his second win after retiring the side at the top of the eighth.
  • Dylan Lee stranded two runners despite issuing a walk, inducing an inning-ending groundout by Pete Alonso.
  • Pierce Johnson issued two walks and recorded a strikeout during two-thirds scoreless in the seventh.

Hierarchy Remains: Raisel Iglesias | Dylan Lee | Pierce Johnson

Baltimore Orioles – Forced into action at the top of the eighth with the bases loaded, Keegan Akin stranded two of three, giving up a sacrifice fly by Victor Caratini, then retiring Mauricio Dubón via lineout, ending the inning. Akin returned for the ninth and retired the Astros’ 8-9-1 lineup pocket in order by striking out the side for his third save. He logged 1.2 clean frames, throwing 21 pitches (66.7% strike rate) and generating five whiffs (23.8 SwStr%).

It’s been an up-and-down month for the reliever, but this represents one of his best appearances since returning from the injured list.

  • Rico Garcia gets credit for his third hold, but he gave up three hits, two of the infield variety, and an earned run during one-third of the eighth.

Updated Hierarchy: *Keegan Akin | *Rico Garcia | *Yennier Cano

Chicago Cubs – Working around Luis Rengifo’s lead-off single and a one-out walk, Daniel Palencia recorded three strikeouts while securing his 20th save. He threw 26 pitches (61.5% strike rate) and produced five whiffs (19.2 SwStr%).

Through nine appearances in August, he has a 1-1 record while converting six of seven save chances with a 1.556 WHIP and 12 strikeouts against four walks (26.7 K-BB%) across nine innings.

  • Brad Keller notched his 21st hold, firing a clean bottom of the eighth and striking out one.
  • Caleb Thielbar gave up a hit and recorded a strikeout in a scoreless seventh for his 18th hold.
  • Andrew Kittredge allowed two hits and two runs (one earned) and struck out one in the sixth, getting credit for his 12th hold. 

Hierarchy Remains: Daniel Palencia | Brad Keller | Andrew Kittredge

Kansas City Royals – Nailing down his American League-leading 34th save, Carlos Estévez fired a clean bottom of the ninth. He recorded one strikeout while preserving a two-run win in Detroit. He threw 11 pitches (81.8% strike rate) and produced three whiffs (27.3 SwStr%).

He has been scoreless in his last five outings and converted all four save chances with five strikeouts through five clean innings.

  • Ben Bowlan notched his first hold, tossing a clean bottom of the eighth and striking out one.
  • Lucas Erceg gave up Spencer Torkelson’s solo shot while securing his 21st hold at the bottom of the seventh.
  • John Schreiber stranded a runner in the fifth and retired all four batters, three via strikeout, collecting his third win.

Hierarchy Remains: Carlos Estévez | Lucas Erceg | John Schreiber

Miami Marlins – Reliever roulette landed on Tyler Phillips against the Blue Jays. He retired the 5-6-7 lineup pocket in order on six pitches (83.3% strike rate) without a whiff, inducing two groundouts and a game-ending pop-out. This represents his first save since July 26. 

  • Ronny Henriquez stranded two runners while striking out pinch-hitter, Vlad Guerrero Jr., at the game’s highest leverage point, notching his 19th hold.
  • Lake Bachar gets credit for his sixth hold, but he let both inherited runners score on Daulton Varsho’s home run at the top of the seventh. Bachar finished with a hit, an earned run, and two walks while striking out two over 1.2 innings.

Hierarchy Remains: *Calvin Faucher | *Anthony Bender | Ronny Henriquez

*= closer-by-committee

Milwaukee Brewers – Walking the tightrope and working without command of his curve, Trevor Megill suffered his sixth blown save and third loss during the top of the ninth against the Giants. His outing began with Matt Chapman’s lead-off double, followed by a strikeout, then Luis Maton singled, putting runners on the corners. After striking out Rafael Devers, Megill walked Jung Hoo Lee and gave up a go-ahead two-RBI single by Heliot Ramos ahead of an inning-ending lineout. He threw 34 pitches (61.8% strike rate) and produced seven whiffs (20.6 SwStr%) while giving up three hits, two earned runs, and one walk while striking out two. His illustrator:

And his results:

He’s about to surpass his career high in innings (46.1) and has not converted three of his last four save chances, yielding seven hits over his last four innings.

  • Abner Uribe noched his MLB-leading 35th hold, working around two hits and striking out two in a scoreless eighth.
  • Shelby Miller fired a clean seventh, striking out one for his ninth hold.
  • Nick Mears retired both batters via strikeout, securing his 15th hold in the sixth.

Hierarchy Remains: Trevor Megill | Abner Uribe | Jared Koenig

Philadelphia Phillies – Despite allowing a solo home run by Luis Garcia Jr., Orion Kerkering recorded his fourth save, finishing an eventual one-run win over Washington. He threw 17 pitches (76.5% strike rate) and induced three whiffs (17.6 SwStr%) while striking out one. He has secured two saves in August over his last seven outings.

  • Tanner Banks notched his seventh hold, stranding two of three inherited runners, producing a double play groundout and an inning-ending flyout by CJ Abrams.
  • José Alvarado gave up a hit, an earned run, and two walks without retiring a batter at the top of the eighth.

Hierarchy Remains: Jhoan Duran | Matt Strahm | David Robertson

Quick Hits

  • Arizona Diamondbacks: Although he stranded all three inherited runners at the top of the seventh, Kyle Backhus allowed Noelvi Marte’s lead-off single at the top of the eighth, then retired Elly De La Cruz. However, he was charged with an earned run and his third loss after being replaced by Juan Burgos. He let the inherited runner score and allowed four hits, four earned runs, and a walk during one-third of the eighth.
  • Chicago White Sox: Brandon Eisert stranded two runners by inducing an inning-ending groundout by Trevor Larnach at the top of the fifth. He returned for the sixth and worked around a hit and a walk while striking out one for a scoreless 1.1 inning outing. Eisert was awarded his third win for his efforts.
  • Cincinnati Reds: Taking over a tied game at the bottom of the seventh, Graham Ashcraft collected his eighth win after retiring the side and striking out one, courtesy of a five-run rally at the top of the eighth.
  • Detroit Tigers: Not only did Tyler Holton let both inherited runners score at the top of the sixth, he was tagged with an earned run on his ledger, giving up a hit and a walk while striking out one during his inning of relief, resulting in his fifth blown save.
  • Houston Astros: Making his team debut, Craig Kimbrel allowed a hit and recorded two strikeouts during a scoreless bottom of the eighth.
  • Los Angeles Dodgers: Closing out a six-run margin at San Diego, Kirby Yates retired the side at the bottom of the ninth on 13 pitches (69.2% strike rate) with one whiff. Tanner Scott fired a clean bottom of the eighth against the 1-2-3 hitters, throwing six pitches (66.7% strike rate) without a whiff. Blake Treinen retired his only batter faced via strikeout at the bottom of the seventh, stranding a runner.
  • New York Mets: Suffering his fourth loss, Gregory Soto allowed two hits, two earned runs, and a walk while striking out one at the bottom of the eighth. He entered a tied contest and had an untimely spot for his first earned runs against as a Met, snapping his eight-game scoreless streak. 
  • New York Yankees: Navigating around a lead-off single and a two-out double, Camilo Doval closed out a five-run win over Boston with a strikeout and a game-ending groundout for a scoreless top of the ninth. Devin Williams worked a clean eighth, striking out two and securing his ninth hold. Luke Weaver let his only inherited runner score at the top of the sixth, allowing Nathaniel Lowe’s RBI single, but logged 1.1 scoreless frames, yielding two hits while striking out three for his 15th hold.
  • Pittsburgh Pirates: Completing a combined shutout, Dennis Santana navigated around Hunter Goodman’s two-out double and Jordan Beck’s walk with a game-ending groundout. He has been scoreless over his last six appearances and converted three save chances, posting a 0.635 WHIP with five strikeouts against one walk across 6.1 innings.
  • San Diego Padres: Summoned at the top of the seventh during a tied game, Jeremiah Estrada suffered his fifth loss, giving up three hits and a walk, including Dalton Rushing’s three-run home run, resulting in four earned runs over two-thirds of the inning.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

Baseball-Reference.com

BaseballSavant.com

BrooksBaseball.net