Updated on July 25
With less than one week until the trade deadline, how teams will handle their rosters remains in constant flux. Some teams will use their next three series as a litmus test on how to proceed. There are two teams within one and a half games of the last Wild Card spot, three within three games, and six within five and a half:
Entering the weekend, here is how things stand for teams in the American League regarding their relievers:
Glossary:
BUY+: This reliever has a strong chance (50 percent or better) of becoming a closer after the trade deadline.
BUY: This reliever has a slight chance (at least 20 percent) of becoming a closer after the trade deadline.
SELL: This reliever has a slight chance (at least 20 percent) of losing his team’s closer role by the trade deadline.
SELL+: This reliever has a strong chance (50 percent or higher) of losing his team’s closer role by the trade deadline.
TL;DR – American League Relievers
BUY+: None
BUY: Cade Smith (CLE); Reid Detmers (LAA); Griffin Jax (MIN); Louis Varland (MIN); Jon Gray (TEX)
SELL: Mason Miller (ATH); Emmanuel Clase (CLE); Carlos Estévez (KC); Kenley Jansen (LAA); Jhoan Durán (MIN)
SELL+: Seranthony Domínguez (BAL)
Unless one of the closers on the block is moved, things may not shift significantly in the American League leverage ecosystem.
American League Projected Buyers
Boston Red Sox – Although the team’s most pressing needs are a starting pitcher and a first baseman, a reliever capable of working in the sixth or seventh inning would strengthen the depth of the bullpen.
Detroit Tigers – All preseason, articles focused on the Tigers adding a reliever with “swing-and-miss” stuff, resulting in the team signing Tommy Kahnle. He limped into the break, and Will Vest has emerged as the team’s preferred option for high-leverage events. Adding a veteran reliever with closing experience should be a priority, but time will tell.
Houston Astros – Already equipped with one of the best late-inning duos in the majors (Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu), adding a right-handed reliever for the bridge innings (sixth and seventh) should be the modus operandi ahead of the deadline.
New York Yankees – Getting Devin Williams back on track and the break allowing Luke Weaver time to recover makes this a strong backend of the bullpen. However, getting games to them remains an issue. Fernando Cruz‘s eventual return will help, but the Yankees will be trying to acquire at least one, if not two, relievers before the deadline passes.
Seattle Mariners – Wasting a season like the “Big Dumper” is having would be criminal, so Seattle should be adding a veteran to the leverage ladder. Managing the workloads for Matt Brash and Andrés Muñoz will be pivotal for postseason success.
Toronto Blue Jays – The health of Yimi García should determine how aggressive the team should be ahead of the deadline. Getting a veteran reliever with playoff experience should be a goal, regardless.
American League Projected Sellers
Baltimore Orioles – Félix Bautista landing on the injured list removes him from trade consideration. However, pending free agent Seranthony Domínguez should keep a go bag packed. Manager Tony Mansolino employed a matchup-based approach in the first game without “The Mountain,” which may alter our valuation of some relievers, depending on what Bautista’s MRI reveals:
Buy: Yennier Cano; Keegan Akin
Sell: Seranthony Domínguez
Chicago White Sox – Anyone not named Grant Taylor should be available via trade. Left-handed relievers Brandon Eisert and Tyler Alexander may garner some interest.
The Athletics – Teams will call regarding Mason Miller, who is under team control through 2029 but enters his arbitration window this winter. If the A’s could receive young starting pitching prospects, they will listen, but it’s more likely he’s moved over the winter than before the deadline. However, if a team like Philadelphia makes an offer they cannot refuse, here are the last 30 days’ results for their relievers (through July 24):
A match-up-based approach may occur. Elvis Alvarado has the velocity but lacks command. Sean Newcomb (if not traded) can face left-handed hitting pockets, and Justin Sterner could be a sleeper for saves as well.
American League Teams in Limbo
Cleveland Guardians – There has been an undercurrent suggesting the team could deal Emmanuel Clase, and it’s possible, but not likely, especially since the Guardians have one of the easiest schedules based on opponents’ winning percentage in the second half. A recent push has them within one and a half games of the playoffs, so unless an offer blows them away, Clase and Cade Smith will remain on the roster. Just in case:
Buy: Cade Smith
Sell: Emmanuel Clase
Kansas City Royals – Remaining four and a half games back entering the last weekend before the deadline may not be ideal, so the next two series may determine how they handle the trade deadline. Teams are calling about Carlos Estévez, so stay tuned.
Buy: Lucas Erceg
Sell: Carlos Estévez
Los Angeles Angels – In playoff purgatory, selling hurts the optics for a team trying to get Mike Trout into the playoffs. Kenley Jansen signed because he could pursue 500 career saves, and he prefers not to be moved to the setup role on a contender if his team fades. However, if he’s moved, the destination determines his fantasy relevance. Teams are also interested in Reid Detmers. If both get moved, José Quijada has saved games in the past and the return of Robert Stephenson could result in another match-up-based leverage ladder.
Buy: Robert Stephenson; Reid Detmers
Sell: Kenley Jansen; Reid Detmers
Minnesota Twins – Being five games back from the last Wild Card spot may prompt a move for one of their coveted relievers: Jhoan Durán and Griffin Jax. Marc Feinsand of MLB.com feels one will be moved. If the team trades Durán, Jax should be next in line, but those in deeper leagues can take a shot at stashing Louis Varland just in case. Philadelphia has scouts following these relievers.
Buy: Griffin Jax, Louis Varland
Sell: Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax
Tampa Bay Rays – Treading water in the standings, reports indicate the team prefers not trading Pete Fairbanks, so there may not be many moves in this leverage ladder.
Buy/Sell: None
Texas Rangers – Suddenly, being within striking distance of the last Wild Card spot may change this team’s outlook for the trade deadline. However, it’s hampered by a desire not to exceed the CBT, making any additions difficult. Jon Gray made his debut as a reliever, collecting a win after working two scoreless frames. He could emerge with a share of save chances if the team stands pat with the roster.
Buy: Jon Gray
This may be updated one more time if more clarity emerges.
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