Friday’s slate featured many high-leverage events, including extra innings between the Yankees and Red Sox, a walk-off home run for the Padres, and Ryan Helsley‘s first multiple-inning outing in 2024 during his second blown save, snapping his historic streak. Seven relievers recorded wins and 11 secured saves in the 15 games last night.
Sometimes, it’s difficult to identify three situations for our takeaways, but last night’s slate yielded too many. We will focus on Clay Holmes‘ recent struggles, revisit Josh Hader’s home run issues and team usage patterns, and José Alvarado‘s role in the second half.
Three Takeaways
- Holmes versus batting average on balls in play: Blown saves like Friday night fuel the fire for fantasy managers and a fan base for overreaction. Clay Holmes could not finish the win with two outs and two strikes, allowing a single and a game-tying two-run home run. He’s given up at least a run in five of his last seven outings and multiple runs in four. Of his last 31 batters faced, he’s yielded 11 hits, including two home runs, producing a. .355 batting average against, a 1.000 on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS), and an unsustainable .429 batting average on balls in play (BAbip). His 10.80 ERA accompanies a 1.97 SIERA and 25.8 K-BB percentage in this sample. However, his sinker results must improve. He’s thrown 82 in these contests with a .310 expected batting average, a .583 expected slugging, and a .385 BAbip. Will the team continue deploying him in the ninth, or will this stretch fuel a move ahead of the trade deadline for a closer?
- More Hader and home runs: Cherry-picking timeframes for narratives remains easy for fantasy analysts, but one cannot ignore Josh Hader‘s recent uptick in home runs allowed. He’s served up four against his last 44 batters, three against his sinker, and one against his slider. Despite this, he’s converted all six save chances with 16 strikeouts against one walk (34.1 K-BB percentage) and a 1.00 WHIP over his last 11 innings since June 9. In this timeframe, he’s leaned into his sinker usage, 82.8 percent, producing a 50 percent hard-hit rate, while his slider has generated a .712 expected slugging percentage and one home run. Time will tell if this represents a blip or a migration toward his home run per fly ball issues from 2019, but he’s already allowed more barrels this year than in 2023 in 30 fewer batted ball events.
- Alvarado and saves: From a fantasy perspective, operating in the “floating closer” concept can be beneficial at times. However, it can also fuel frustration. José Alvarado took over in the eighth against Atlanta’s top-of-the-lineup with a five-run lead in a non-save situation but a higher leveraged one from his manager’s standpoint. He allowed a one-out single, a walk, and a two-out three-run home run by Marcell Ozuna. Since the start of June, Alvarado’s converted four of five save opportunities, giving up nine hits and seven runs (six earned) with a 14:3 K:BB (22.9 K-BB percentage). He’s only secured one save since June 14, and his drop in strikeout percentage this season may prompt his general manager to add a veteran reliever with closer experience (source). Philadelphia has been linked with multiple relievers currently on the market and is intrigued by Kyle Finnegan. Stay tuned and note his rolling 10-game chart:
In case you missed it, our third Trade Deadline primer was posted on Friday. It features playoff odds, potential relievers on projected sellers, and some interesting save stashes.
Next, our condensed recaps cover Friday’s voluminous leverage results.
Closer CliffsNotes
American League
Baltimore Orioles – Locking down his 22nd save, Craig Kimbrel preserved the one-run margin with a clean bottom of the ninth and recorded two strikeouts in Oakland. He threw 10 pitches (70 Strike%) and generated four whiffs against the 4-5-6 lineup pocket. He’s converted six straight saves, all hitless and scoreless, with 11 strikeouts versus three walks.
- Yennier Cano secured his American League-leading 22nd hold, allowing a hit and striking out one in a scoreless eighth.
- Jacob Webb notched his 11th hold with a clean seventh, striking out two.
Hierarchy remains: Craig Kimbrel | Yennier Cano | Cionel Pérez
Boston Red Sox – Capping a comeback, Kenley Jansen recorded his 17th save and 437th of his career, moving into a tie for fifth all-time with Francisco Rodriguez. He preserved a two-run win with a scoreless bottom of the tenth, allowing a Juan Soto single and then retiring the next three Yankees in order. He threw nine pitches (77.8 Strike%) without a whiff and has converted eight saves in his last ten appearances.
- Justin Slaten collected his fifth win, firing a clean bottom of the ninth and striking out one.
- Cam Booser logged two scoreless frames, allowing a hit and a walk while striking out one.
- Sam Horn worked 2.2 scoreless, though he let one of three inherited runners score in the fourth, scattering two hits and striking out three.
- Before Friday’s game, Chris Martin was placed on the 15-day injured list with elbow inflammation.
Updated Hierarchy: Kenley Jansen | Justin Slaten | Greg Weissert
Chicago White Sox – Hanging on for his eighth save, Michael Kopech issued a lead-off walk in the bottom of the ninth, a high-leverage no-no. He did record two outs on a groundout and a strikeout before consecutive singles scored a run. With two runners on and two outs, Kopech induced a game-ending groundout by Josh Bell. He threw 25 pitches (56 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (12 SwStr%) through 1.1 innings. He’s allowed a run in his last two games but has three saves in his last five.
- Tanner Banks notched his fifth hold, recording two outs and leaving with a runner who reached on an error in the eighth.
- John Brebbia let his only inherited runner score, giving up two hits and a walk while striking out one in two-thirds of the seventh for his 11th hold.
Hierarchy remains: Michael Kopech | John Brebbia | Tanner Banks
Detroit Tigers – Taking over with a three-run lead in the bottom of the ninth, Jason Foley recorded his 14th save despite allowing four hits and two earned runs with a strikeout. His outing began with Elly De La Cruz’s lead-off single, a stolen base, and a balk, putting him on third. After striking out Jeimer Candelario, Foley gave up an RBI single by Spener Steer, Nick Martini’s RBI triple. He was thrown out at home on a fielder’s choice groundout before a game-ending groundout. He threw 24 pitches (19 strikes – 79.2 Strike%) and produced four whiffs (16.7 SwStr%). This marked his first save since June 21, and it was not pretty.
- Andrew Chafin fired a clean eighth and recorded a strikeout for his sixth hold.
- Will Vest logged 1.1 celan frames and struck out one, securing his third hold.
Hierarchy remains: Jason Foley | Tyler Holton | Will Vest
Houston Astros – Summoned into a bases-loaded situation, Josh Hader allowed Carlos Correa’s grand slam, scoring all three inherited runners and recording a game-ending strikeout of Manuel Margot for his 15th save. It will not appear in usage logs, but Hader warmed up every day between June 29 and July 2, plus these consecutive outings, which means he’s appeared in a game or prepared for one in six of the last seven days.
- Luis Contreras created the mess, allowing six hits, six earned runs, and a walk while striking out two over 1.2 innings.
- Bryan Abreu was credited with his 19th hold, giving up two hits, an earned run, and a walk while striking out two.
- Rafael Montero fired a clean sixth and struck out one for his tenth hold.
- Bryan King gave up two hits, an earned run, and a walk in the fifth. He was credited with his first win.
Hierarchy remains: Josh Hader | Ryan Pressly | Bryan Abreu
New York Yankees – One strike away from preserving a win, Clay Holmes allowed a Dom Smith single and a game-tying, two-run home run by Masataka Yoshida, resulting in his fifth blown save. He threw 30 pitches (60 Strike%) and did not induce a whiff against the Red Sox. He last recorded a save on June 9 and has allowed at least a run in five of his last seven games and multiple runs in four. With pressure mounting in the Bronx, he would be placed on the hot seat but there’s no clear alternative to replace him unless the team stops using Weaver during multiple-inning outings.
- Tommy Kahnle suffered his first loss, giving up a two-run home run by Ceddanne Rafaela in the top of the tenth. He finished with two hits against, two runs (one earned), and a walk while striking out one.
- Luke Weaver tossed two scoreless frames, yielding a hit and striking out three for his 11th hold.
Hierarchy remains: Clay Holmes | Luke Weaver | Michael Tonkin
Seattle Mariners – Lined up against the top of Toronto’s batting order, Andrés Muñoz nailed down his 14th save, first since June 18, with a clean ninth. He threw 13 pitches (8 strikes – 61.5 Strike%) and induced two whiffs (15.4 SwStr%). He’s been scoreless in seven of his last eight contests but has only produced five strikeouts over seven innings.
- Ryne Stanek secured his 13th hold with a clean eighth and struck out one.
- Austin Voth notched his eighth hold, striking out his only batter in the seventh and stranding a runner.
Hierarchy remains: Andrés Muñoz | Ryne Stanek | Trent Thornton
Texas Rangers – Shutting the door on his 12th save, and first since June 19, Kirby Yates fired a clean top of the ninth while recording two strikeouts. He preserved the combined shutout with 16 pitches (11 strikes – 68.8 Strike%) and induced two whiffs. He remains one of two relievers with at least 10 saves without suffering a blown one.
- David Robertson notched his 17th hold, logging 1.1 scoreless frames and stranded two runners in the seventh. He gave up a hit and recorded two strikeouts.
- Jake Latz was credited with his seventh hold despite issuing two walks over two-thirds of the seventh.
- José Leclerc tossed a scoreless sixth, allowing a hit and a walk while striking out two for his fourth hold.
Hierarchy remains: Kirby Yates | David Robertson | José Leclerc
National League
Arizona Diamondbacks – With a one-run lead in the bottom of the ninth, Paul Sewald suffered his second loss and second blown save. He allowed Jurickson Profar’s lead-off home run, issued Jake Cronenworth a walk, and served up Manny Machado’s walk-off, two-run home run. After converting 11 consecutive save chances across 17 scoreless outings, he’s produced back-to-back walk-off losses this week, putting five hits and five earned runs on his ledger while recording only two outs.
- Humberto Castellanos logged two scoreless frames, yielding a hit.
Hierarchy remains: Paul Sewald | Ryan Thompson | Kevin Ginkel
Colorado Rockies – After allowing consecutive singles leading off the top of the ninth, Jalen Beeks recovered with three quick outs and secured his eighth save. He recorded a strikeout against Garrett Hampson, induced a Dairon Blanco pop-out, and a game-ending Maikel Garcia groundout, preserving the two-run win. He threw 17 pitches (9 strikes – 52.9 Strike%) and induced one whiff. He’s been scoreless in his three July appearances and recorded a save on consecutive days.
- Victor Vodnik collected his second win, tossing a scoreless top of the eighth. He gave up a hit and struck out one ahead of his team’s two-run rally in the bottom of the inning.
Hierarchy remains: Jalen Beeks | Tyler Kinley | Victor Vodnik
Los Angeles Dodgers – Slamming the door on his 14th save, Evan Phillips fired a clean top of the ninth, striking out the side against Milwaukee. He threw 12 pitches (75 Strike%) and generated five whiffs (41.7 SwStr%) versus the 4-5-6 lineup pocket. This marked his first multi-strikeout outing since June 20, and he’s only produced two such games since returning from the injured list on June 1, a span of 14 contests.
- Daniel Hudson kept the game tied in the top of the eighth, retiring the side and striking out one. He collected his sixth win courtesy of a three-run rally in the bottom of the inning.
- Blake Treinen tossed a scoreless seventh, allowing a hit.
Hierarchy remains: Evan Phillips | Daniel Hudson | Alex Vesia
Milwaukee Brewers – Taking over a tied game in the bottom of the eighth, Elvis Peguero suffered his third loss. He allowed a lead-off single, recorded an out, and issued two walks sandwiched around a Shohei Ohtani groundout. He was removed with the bases loaded and two outs.
- Hoby Milner gave up a two-RBI single by Freddie Freeman, followed by an RBI double by Teoscar Hernández before an inning-ending strikeout, scoring all three inherited runners on Peguero’s tab.
- Bryan Hudson was tagged with his second blown save, giving up two hits, including a solo home run by Will Smith, and a walk in the seventh.
- Joel Payamps worked a clean sixth and struck out one for his 11th hold.
Hierarchy remains: Trevor Megill | Joel Payamps | Bryan Hudson
Philadelphia Phillies – Facing Atlanta’s 7-8-9 lineup pocket, Jeff Hoffman nailed down his eighth save, retiring the side and striking out one while preserving a two-run win. He threw 14 pitches (9 strikes – 64.3 Strike%) and induced two whiffs (14.3 SwStr%). He’s been scoreless and recorded a save in his last three outings.
- José Alvarado gave up two hits, including a three-run home run by Marcell Ozuna and a walk during the bottom of the eighth. This represents the third time Alvarado’s allowed multiple runs in an appearance this year.
- Orion Kerkering tossed a scoreless seventh, giving up a hit and striking out two. He owns a modest six-game scoreless streak.
Hierarchy remains: *José Alvarado | *Jeff Hoffman | Orion Kerkering
San Diego Padres – An eventful ninth inning does not give justice to this contest, but it resulted in a third win for Stephen Kolek, courtesy of a walk-off in the bottom of the inning. He stranded a runner while striking out Christian Walker, keeping the game tied.
- Robert Suarez was used for a third straight game and struggled. He entered with the bases loaded in the ninth and gave up a grand slam by Alek Thomas, moving the Diamondbacks within a run. After recording an out, he allowed a Corbin Carroll, a go-ahead pinch-hit home run by Randal Grichuk, and a single before his removal. He finished with four hits and three earned runs over one-third of an inning, resulting in his second blown save.
- Enyel De Los Santos recorded the last out in the eighth and the first of the ninth before giving up two hits and a walk, prompting his removal.
- Wandy Peralta logged 1.1 scoreless combined innings between the seventh and eighth innings.
Hierarchy remains: Robert Suarez | Jeremiah Estrada | Adrian Morejon
San Francisco Giants – Despite beginning his save chance with a mental mistake of not covering first on an infield single by Steven Kwan, followed by a walk, Camilo Doval regained his footing. He recorded a strikeout against José Ramírez and a game-ending double play groundout by Josh Naylor, securing his 17th save. He threw 15 pitches (7 strikes – 46.7 Strike%), producing only one whiff. He’s been scoreless in seven of his last eight appearances, converting five of six save chances with 12 strikeouts against two walks.
- Tyler Rogers navigated around two hits for a scoreless eighth and his 17th hold.
- Ryan Walker collected his fifth win, stranding two runners in the sixth and logging 1.2 scoreless frames. He allowed a walk and recorded two strikeouts in his outing.
- Randy Rodríguez gets credit for his third hold but gave up two hits, an earned run, and a walk over one-third of the sixth.
- Taylor Rogers notched his sixth hold, yielding a hit and striking out two in a scoreless fifth.
Hierarchy remains: Camilo Doval | Tyler Rogers | Ryan Walker
St. Louis Cardinals – In his 40th appearance, Ryan Helsley strayed from the preseason plan and collected his third win while making his first multi-inning outing of the season. He tossed two innings, giving up two hits, including Keibert Ruiz’s RBI single in the tenth, resulting in his second blown save, snapping his streak. In the 11th, he bore down, recording two quick outs, issuing CJ Abrams an intentional walk, and inducing a game-ending groundout, preserving the one-run lead. He threw 27 pitches (20 strikes – 74.1 Strike%) and induced one whiff.
- JoJo Romero gave up a hit and struck out one over two-thirds scoreless in the ninth.
- Ryan Fernandez tossed a scoreless combined inning, allowing a walk.
Hierarchy remains: Ryan Helsley | Andrew Kittredge | JoJo Romero
Washington Nationals – During his second inning of relief, Dylan Floro suffered his second loss with the game-winning run, scoring on a passed ball while striking out Willson Contreras. Floro finished with a hit allowed and two unearned runs with one strikeout over two innings.
- Kyle Finnegan was tagged with his fourth blown save, giving up a game-tying solo home run by Contreras in the top of the ninth. He gave up two hits and the earned run on 22 pitches (14 strikes – 63.6 Strike%) with three whiffs.
- Hunter Harvey stranded two runners on one pitch in the seventh but allowed three hits and an earned run in the eighth for his 25th hold.
- Derek Law was credited with his eighth hold, allowing a hit and a walk over two-thirds of the seventh.
- Robert Garcia yielded a hit during a scoreless sixth, securing his 11th hold.
Hierarchy Remains: Kyle Finnegan | Hunter Harvey | Dylan Floro
Vulture Save Options for Saturday, July 6
- Ryan Pressly (HOU): Not only has Hader appeared in back-to-back games, but he’s prepared for an appearance in six of the last seven days.
- Yennier Cano (BAL): Kimbrel’s worked in three of the last four.
- Jeremiah Estrada (SDP): Perhaps last night’s meltdown can be attributed to Suarez appearing in three straight games.
- Trent Thornton (SEA): Muñoz and Stanek have appeared in two straight, putting Thornton in line for a vulture save today.
Vulture Save Stashes for Sunday, July 7
- Orion Kerkering (PHI): If Alvarado and Hoffman pitch today, the rookie may finally get a save chance on Sunday.
- David Robertson (TEX): If Yates pitches today, it will be consecutive outings.
- Kevin Ginkel (ARI): A Sewald outing today would mean back-to-back appearances and Sunday off.
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