Many columns regarding the Trade Deadline have been posted, but the reliever market is not yet robust. It will pick up momentum, especially during the All-Star break. Teams will have a better idea about their chances for the playoffs, making tough roster decisions easier.
Entering gameplay on July 5, the last Wild Card spot in the National League has seven teams within six games, five only four games or fewer behind, and three teams at three games back or less. Here are the current playoff odds from Baseball-Reference for the senior circuit:
Taking this a step further, here are the 10 teams in the Wild Card spots, and below, remaining schedules until the All-Star break:
- Arizona Diamondbacks: 3 @ SDP; 4 vs. ATL; 3 vs. TOR
- Atlanta Braves: 3 vs. PHI; 4 @ ARI; 3 @ SDP
- Chicago Cubs: 3 vs. LAA; 3 @ BAL; 4 @ STL
- Cincinnati Reds: 3 vs. DET; 4 vs. COL; 3 vs. MIA
- New York Mets: 4 @ PIT; 3 vs. WSH; 3 vs. COL
- Pittsburgh Pirates: 4 vs. NYM; 3 @ MIL; 3 @ CWS
- San Diego Padres: 3 vs. ARI; 2 vs. SEA; 3 vs. ATL
- San Francisco Giants: 3 @ CLE; 3 vs. TOR; 3 vs. MIN
- St. Louis Cardinals: 3 @ WSH; 2 vs. KCR; 4 vs. CHC
- Washington Nationals: 3 vs. STL; 3 @ NYM; 3 @ MIL
Things seem more stable in the American League, and teams like Tampa Bay and Boston should know how to proceed after the All-Star break. First, the playoff odds snapshot:
Teams currently in the Wild Card spots and within three-and-a-half games entering gameplay on July 5:
- Boston Red Sox: 3 @ NYY; 3 vs. OAK; 3 vs. KCR
- Houston Astros: 3 @ MIN; 3 vs. MIA; 3 vs. TEX
- Kansas City Royals: 3 @ COL; 2 @ STL; 3 @ BOS
- Minnesota Twins: 3 vs. HOU; 3 @ CWS; 3 @ SFG
- New York Yankees: 3 vs. BOS; 3 @ TBR; 3 @ BAL
- Tampa Bay Rays: 3 @ TEX; 3 vs. NYY; 3 vs. CLE
In the most recent Trade Deadline update at The Athletic, Ken Rosenthal feels these four teams will trend toward sellers in the next two weeks:
- Chicago Cubs
- Texas Rangers
- Detroit Tigers
- Toronto Blue Jays
Only the Cubs and Rangers represent new teams in the mix of projected sellers.
American League Projected “Sellers”
Chicago White Sox
- On the block: Michael Kopech; John Brebbia
- Potential Leverage Replacement: Jordan Leasure
Detroit Tigers
- On the block: Andrew Chafin; Shelby Miller
- Potential Leverage Replacement: None
Los Angeles Angels
- On the block: Carlos Estévez; Luis García; Matt Moore
- Potential Leverage Replacement: Ben Joyce
This note on Estévez appeared in a recent post by Mark Feinsand on MLB.com:
Oakland Athletics
- On the block: Lucas Erceg
- Potential Leverage Replacement: Grant Holman
Texas Rangers
- “Potentially” on the block: Kirby Yates; David Robertson; José Leclerc
- Potential Leverage Replacements: Josh Sborz; Antoine Kelly
From Feinsand’s column:
Toronto Blue Jays
- “Potentially” on the block: Chad Green; Yimi García; Trevor Richards
- Potential Leverage Replacements: Erik Swanson; Nate Pearson; Brendon Little
He may not be atop many teams target list, but Richards could be a sneaky play for a contender seeking length and depth in its bullpen:
National League Projected “Sellers”
Chicago Cubs
- On the block: Héctor Neris; Drew Smyly
- Potential Leverage Replacement: Julian Merryweather
Colorado Rockies
- On the block: Jalen Beeks
- Potential Leverage Replacement: Jaden Hill
Miami Marlins
- On the block: Tanner Scott; Calvin Faucher
- Projected Closer Replacement: Andrew Nardi
From Feinsand’s column:
I think you can put the Phillies and Dodgers on the potential fits as well.
Potential Sellers after the All-Star Break
Tampa Bay Rays
- Potentially on the block: Jason Adam; Phil Maton
- Possible Leverage Replacements: Justin Sterner
Washington Nationals
- Potentially on the block: Kyle Finnegan; Hunter Harvey
- Possible Leverage Replacement: Derek Law; Zach Brzykcy
If these two teams decide to move one or both of these relievers, the scope of the leverage market could change. It could also shift if the Rays keep Adam and trade Pete Fairbanks. However, it depends on how these franchises view the rest of this year and their window for next season.
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