Spring Vibes, March 19: Durán’s oblique, Jansen’s back (but not on a mound), Kerkering may not be ready, Game Recaps, and more

There have not been many dull moments over the last seven days, with the “closer” news cycles churning out content with ripple effects felt throughout the fantasy community. Relievers exist in a delicate ecosystem, and just when it seems safe, one must adapt on the fly. Monday removed a second reliever from the top tier in our projections, now we take a step back, a breath, and plan for upcoming drafts.

Minnesota Twins – In a very unfortunate update, Jhoan Durán will open the season on the injured list with an oblique strain, reported on “X” by Betsy Helfand. It’s being described as a moderate strain, but these soft-tissue injuries can be slippery. This puts Griffin Jax into the spotlight as the obvious candidate to replace him atop the bullpen hierarchy. He owns a minuscule 0.33 WHIP through six appearances with 10 strikeouts versus zero walks this spring.

In a column by Molly Burkhardt for MLB.com, the president of baseball operations, Derek Falvey, mentioned Jax and Brock Stewart as “late-inning options“.

Updated Hierarchy: Griffin Jax | Brock Stewart | Justin Topa

Boston Red SoxIn the never-ending saga of Kenley Jansen injury updates, he did not pitch on Monday with back discomfort. His window for Opening Day gets tighter as a result of this, and per Alex Speier on “X”, Alex Cora admits “we’re running out of time“. Jansen’s slated to pitch on Tuesday, Thursday, Sunday, and one more time in Texas. Stay tuned. If he opens the year on the injured list, the first save chance may be a dart throw. 

Hierarchy remains (for now): Kenley Jansen | Chris Martin | Josh Winckowski

Philadelphia Phillies – In a column by Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer, Orion Kerkering has not thrown since March 1 and may not be ready for Opening Day. Projected as one of six locks for the leverage ladder, the team will not rush him into game action, especially since he’s fatigued from an illness. 

Hierarchy remains a committee: *José Alvarado | *Seranthony Domínguez | *Jeff Hoffman

Chicago White Sox – Although it was in a minor league game, John Brebbia made his spring debut on a mound. In this tweet by Daryl Van Schouwen, the veteran reliever pitched an inning and faced two more batters before being removed. He also backed up a base and fielded a ball during his outing, reporting no ill effects. His next appearance may be in a Cactus League contest.

Hierarchy remains a committee: *Michael Kopech | *John Brebbia | *Jordan Leasure

Quick Hits (Game Recaps from March 18)

Arizona Diamondbacks – Escaping with a scoreless outing, Paul Sewald recorded his fourth hold this spring, giving up two hits and striking out two in the fifth. He threw 19 pitches (12 strikes – 63.2 Strike%) and induced four whiffs (21.1 SwStr%). This marked his fifth appearance and he owns a 1.00 WHIP with five strikeouts against one walk over five innings.

Chicago White SoxJordan Leasure retired the side in order in the sixth. He owns a 0.68 WHIP with seven strikeouts against three walks through 7.1 innings.

Houston Astros – Considered a spring hiccup, Josh Hader only retired two batters while giving up four hits, including two home runs, and recording a strikeout in the sixth. But, he got credit for his third hold. He threw 19 pitches (14 strikes – 73.6 Strike%) and generated five whiffs (26.3 SwStr%). Both home runs came against his sinker, which averaged 94.3 m.p.h. in this outing:

Los Angeles Angels –  Carlos Estévez fired a clean sixth, striking out two. He’s thrown three straight scoreless outings with three strikeouts and zero walks.

Philadelphia Phillies – Taking over in the sixth, José Alvarado gave up a hit and a walk while striking out two during two-thirds scoreless in a split-squad game against the Pirates. He threw 19 pitches (13 strikes – 68.4 Strike%) with three whiffs (15.8 SwStr%). He’s posted a 1.24 WHIP with six strikeouts versus two walks over 5.2 innings. Versus the Yankees, these relievers all appeared on consecutive days. Jeff Hoffman fired a clean second, striking out two on 11 pitches (72.7 Strike%) with three whiffs (27.2 SwStr%). Seranthony Domínguez collected his first loss, serving up a solo home run in the third. Gregory Soto allowed three hits and an earned run in the fourth.

Washington NationalsHunter Harvey fired a clean eighth, striking out the side. This marked his seventh appearance and he’s racked up 13 strikeouts versus one walk through 7.1 innings. Following up on yesterday’s note about Kyle Finnegan, he threw on Monday and will return to game action on Wednesday.

Although he may open the year as San Diego’s fifth starter, Matt Waldon receives Closer Monkey’s filthy pitch of the day award, with this mesmerizing knuckleball during an exhibition game in South Korea, provided by the Pitching Ninja.

Stay safe and be well.

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Updated Tiered Rankings (Jewett)

Appreciating this remains a fluid process, especially given the recent injury news for many relievers, a second run of tiered rankings seems appropriate, especially for those who may be drafting or taking part in an auction this weekend. These rankings do not reflect average draft position (available at Fantasy Pros). Instead, they are based on blended rankings from Fangraphs (Steamer, THE BAT, and ZiPS), with my save projections fused in. I use a spreadsheet with Standings Gain Points as my guide, though there are a couple of liberties taken in the tiers below.

One does not have to take a reliever where they will be listed, but this will be a guide on relievers, not consensus group think. It’s not gospel, and if you feel differently about a reliever, target him accordingly.

Tier One

  • Emmanuel Clase (CLE)
  • Edwin Díaz (NYM)

This tier lost a member when Devin Williams was diagnosed with two stress fractures in his back. Others will be drafted ahead of this group, but using the data, they bubbled toward the top. No other reliever may provide the strikeout upside Díaz possesses, and Durán may take his game to a new level like Félix Bautista did last year. There’s risk with any reliever, but they present high ceilings. No one loves Clase, but he’s recorded 40-plus saves in consecutive seasons. He’s the floor play. (UPDATE: With Jhoan Durán on the injured list for Opening Day with an oblique injury, he leaves this tier for upcoming drafts)

Tier Two

  • Andrés Muñoz (SEA)
  • Raisel Iglesias (ATL)
  • Josh Hader (HOU)
  • Camilo Doval (SFG)
  • Pete Fairbanks (TBR)
  • David Bednar (PIT)
  • Jordan Romano (TOR)

It’s the pick-your-poison tier, with Muñoz leading the way. He’s not for the risk-averse, but if he’s closer to his 2022 iteration than last year, he could be the reliever taken in the second tier this year who performs like a top-tier reliever. Iglesias and Hader will be “safer” picks, especially given their team’s propensity for contending each season. Doval could be hurt by his team’s win total. Fairbanks and Romano may not be sexy, but when healthy, produce solid numbers. It’s with trepidation keeping Bednar this high, especially if his throwing program does not move to a mound soon. Dialed back his save total and hope he’s back by mid-April.

Tier Three

  • Alexis Díaz (CIN)
  • Ryan Helsley (STL)
  • Evan Phillips (LAD)
  • Tanner Scott (MIA)
  • Craig Kimbrel (BAL)
  • Paul Sewald (ARI)
  • Jhoan Durán (MIN)
  • Clay Holmes (NYY)
  • Adbert Alzolay (CHC)
  • Mason Miller (OAK)

Many fantasy players may draw a line in this tier, meaning they will have one, if not two relievers, because this represents the cliff for many. There will be the never-pay-for-saves crowd in every room, which can work, especially since one can make the case for and against each of these relievers. Díaz tailed off at the end of last year, was it fatigue or the decaying K-BB percentage? Phillips stands out in his bullpen, but will the team add a veteran “closer” with experience for the playoffs? Scott has displayed zero command this spring, can he dial it back in while working on his mechanics in the backfields? Miller may emerge as a terrific high-leverage reliever, will the A’s let him? (UPDATE: With Durán’s injury, giving him 50 projected innings, which lands him between Sewald and Holmes in SGPs)

Tier Four

  • Kenley Jansen (BOS)
  • Michael Kopech (CWS)
  • José Alvarado (PHI)
  • Robert Suarez (SDP)
  • Hunter Harvey (WSH)
  • Carlos Estévez (LAA)

Mining for a second reliever here can make sense, and at his present price point, Suarez will enhance many team builds. Jansen did not make a splashy debut this spring, but he did record 29 saves last year in 33 chances. He does present a risk in WHIP moving forward, father time always wins. No one loves Estévez, but he has the ninth inning and his main competition has not resumed throwing with shoulder discomfort. Alvarado’s another high-risk, high-reward reliever, but his floor will not be as safe as others. Can Kopech thrive as a “closer“, or will his team even use him as one? No idea. However, his results as a reliever in 2021, especially the 25.2 K-BB percentage over 55.1 innings with 80 strikeouts cannot be overlooked. If he does well, the team can move him ahead of the trade deadline.

Tier Five

  • José Leclerc (TEX)
  • Robert Stephenson (LAA)
  • Devin Williams (MIL)
  • Jason Adam (TBR)
  • Yuki Matsui (SDP)
  • Aroldis Chapman (PIT)
  • Alex Lange (DET)
  • Griffin Jax (MIN)
  • Ryan Pressly (HOU)
  • A.J. Minter (ATL)
  • Seranthony Domínguez (PHI)

It feels like risk may be the prevailing theme of this exercise. Stephenson and Williams still receive decent SGPs based on past pedigree, but health will determine their fantasy impacts. Adam, Matsui, Chapman, Pressly, and Minter represent handcuffs with ancillary save upside. If you believe in Lange, move him up. It’s all about the walk rate in my apprehension with him. He has great secondary offerings, but his fastball remains flat and hittable. Domínguez may be a surprise, yet, he could be a late round flier who gets double digits in saves within the Phillies’ “floating closer” concept. (UPDATE: With the Twins’ news, Jax enters this tier with a projected 10 saves by our team).

Tier Six

  • Kyle Finnegan (WSH)
  • Will Smith (KCR)
  • Bryan Abreu (HOU)
  • Joel Payamps (MIL)
  • Giovanny Gallegos (STL)
  • Erik Swanson (TOR)
  • Josh Sborz (TEX)
  • Tyler Kinley (COL)

Can Finnegan prove me wrong for a third straight year, it’s entirely possible. Beat writers keep saying it’s Payamps getting the first chance, but if he gets stuck as the HLR (highest leveraged reliever), a different Brewers reliever may provide late-round value, segue alert.

Late-Round Fliers

  • Trevor Megill/Abner Uribe (MIL)
  • Jordan Leasure (CWS) – stash play
  • Chris Martin (BOS) – if his team trades Jansen, until he gets moved too
  • James McArthur (KCR) – this year’s Alzolay
  • Shelby Miller (DET) – it’s him or Jason Foley if Lange falters

Hybrids (Relievers who may work multiple innings with ancillary save upside)

  • Garrett Crochet (CWS)
  • Ian Hamilton (NYY)
  • Chad Green (TOR)
  • Sixto Sánchez (MIA)

Thanks for stopping by. Until next time, stay safe and be well.

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American League Central 2024 Preview

Chicago White Sox: Way more questions than answers for the White Sox bullpen coming into 2024. If looking for the most likely reliever to land 10 or more saves, you may consider Michael Kopech. The once highly-touted starter turned emergency reliever is as good a bet as anyone to hit the double-digit mark. Other potential SV leaders include John Brebbia, although the veteran is ailing this spring. Young Jordan Leasure is a deep roster name to monitor too. This situation is best avoided as currently constructed.

Here are the three-year high-leverage results for Chicago:

Projected 2024 Hierarchy: Michael Kopech | John Brebbia | Steven Wilson | Jordan Leasure

Primary hold candidates: Brebbia, Wilson, Leasure, Tim Hill, Prelander Berroa

Cleveland Guardians: Lock Emmanuel Clase in as a top fantasy option once in 2024. He sits atop the Cleveland depth chart and was the top SV getter in baseball in 2023, with 44. The depth behind Clase, however, will be tested. Veteran Scott Barlow is in the fray, while Sam Hentges‘ finger must remain calm throughout the year. Carlos Carrasco may end up providing high-leverage outings for Cleveland, as well.

Here is how the Guardians high-leverage relievers have fared over the past three seasons:

Projected 2024 Hierarchy: Emmanuel Clase | Scott Barlow | Nick Sandlin

Primary holds candidates: Barlow, Hentges, Sandlin, Eli Morgan

Detroit Tigers: Command, command, command are the three keys to Alex Lange remaining as the Detroit closer in 2024. Gone are the days when he was the only option in town, as Jason Foley, Beau Briske, and Shelby Miller all pose threats to Lange’s hold on the ninth.

Projected 2024 Hierarchy: Alex Lange | Jason Foley | Shelby Miller | Andrew Chafin

Primary holds candidates: Chafin, Foley, Miller, Briske

Kansas City Royals: It’s not sexy, but Will Smith again finds himself in a fantasy-friendly position within the Royals bullpen. Now, it may not last all season, as his fastball is god-awful and James McArthur lurks, but Smith is a near certainty to get the role and a leash pre-trade deadline for KC. There are a few other names of interest including John Schreiber, Nick Anderson, and Chris Stratton.

High leverage results for the past three seasons in Kansas City:

Projected 2024 Hierarchy: Will Smith | James McArthur(HLR) | John Schreiber | Chris Stratton

Primary holds candidates: Schreiber, Anderson, Stratton, McArthur, John McMillon

Minnesota Twins: A repeat performance in 2024 from Jhoan Durán would make the Twins’ closer a Top 5 relief pitching option. Any progression could have Durán landing as the overall best fantasy reliever this year. The Minnesota bullpen is a collection of powerful arms behind their closer too. Griffin Jax led the team in appearance over the past two seasons, posting a 68:19 K:BB ratio in 2023. While Brock Stewart was unscored upon in 27 of 28 relief appearances.

Below is a look at the Twins high-leverage results over the last three seasons:

Projected 2024 Hierachy: Jhoan Durán | Griffin Jax | Brock Stewart

Primary holds candidates: Jax, Stewart, Caleb Thielbar

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Updated MLB Closer Depth Chart

Closer1st in line2nd in lineUpdatedCloser1st in line2nd in lineUpdated
BALKimbrelCanoTate3/17/24ATLIglesiasMinterJohnson3/17/24
BOSJansenMartin (INJ)Winckowski3/17/24MIAScottNardiBender3/17/24
NYYHolmesLoáisigaHamilton3/17/24NYME.DíazOttavinoRaley3/17/24
TBFairbanksAdamPoche3/17/24PHI*Alvarado*Domínguez*Hoffman3/17/24
TORRomanoSwansonGarcía3/17/24WASFinneganHarveyRainey3/17/24
        
CHW*Kopech*Leasure*Brebbia3/17/24CHCAlzolayMerryweatherNeris3/17/24
CLEClaseBarlowSandlin3/17/24CINAl.DíazSimsPagán3/17/24
DETLangeFoleyMiller3/17/24MIL*Payamps*Uribe*Megill3/17/24
KCSmithSchreiberMcArthur3/17/24PITBednar (INJ)ChapmanHolderman3/17/24
MINJaxStewartTopa3/18/24STLHelsleyGallegosRomero3/17/24
        
HOUHaderPresslyAbreu3/17/24ARISewaldGinkelThompson3/17/24
LAAEstévezMooreSoriano3/10/24COL*Kinley*LawrenceBird3/10/24
OAK*Miller*Jiménez*Gott3/17/24LADPhillipsGraterolVesia3/17/24
SEAMuñozStanekSpeier3/17/24SDSuarezMatsuiPeralta3/17/24
TEXLeclercRobertsonSborz3/17/24SFDovalTy.RogersTa.Rogers3/17/24

* = closer-by-committee

Spring Vibes, March 17: White Sox Leverage Updates, Colorado closer choice emerging, Kimbrel improving, and Game Recaps

Chicago White Sox – Making his first spring relief appearance, Michael Kopech retired the side in order, and in the recap by Scott Merkin of MLB.com, the reliever hit 100 m.p.h. on the stadium radar. Although he’s not focused on being the “closer“, he would welcome it but remains focused on doing the “best job he can”. Stay tuned.

In a separate post for the Chicago Sun-Times, Daryl Van Schouwen featured quotes about Jordan Leasure being a potential ninth-inning option by Pedro Grifol as well. Until the lights go on, it appears the manager will keep his high-leverage plans close to the vest. Also in the mix is John Brebbia, though he’s not appeared in a Cactus League game yet.

Projected Hierarchy: *Michael Kopech | *Jordan Leasure | *John Brebbia

Colorado Rockies – Perhaps a pivotal day in the “closer” competition. During Saturday’s contest, Tyler Kinley retired the side in order in the sixth inning. He owns a 0.50 WHIP with seven strikeouts against two walks over six innings. Justin Lawrence went nuclear in one-third of the eighth. He allowed five hits, six runs (five earned), and a walk while striking out one. This spiked his WHIP to 2.05 with 10 strikeouts versus two walks through 6.1 innings this spring. Patrick Saunders, of the Denver Post, penned in his game recap, Kinley “continues to show why he’s likely to begin the season as the closer“.  Once Bud Black echoes this sentiment, the committee designation will be removed. Our bullpen depth chart leaned Kinley from the jump, hopefully he fares well in the role this season, or until Daniel Bard returns.

Hierarchy remains: *Tyler Kinley | *Justin Lawrence | Jake Bird

Baltimore Orioles –  Appearing in the sixth inning, Craig Kimbrel issued a walk and recorded two strikeouts during a scoreless outing. Following his rough start this spring, he’s scoreless in his last three contests with three strikeouts. He’s on schedule for Opening Day, and his manager agrees in this column by Jake Rill for MLB.com. As for his last hurdle, working on consecutive days will be the last test for the veteran reliever. He enters this season eighth in MLB history with 417 saves. 

Hierarchy: Craig Kimbrel | Yennier Cano | Dillon Tate

Boston Red Sox –  Veteran reliever Chris Martin successfully completed his live batting practice throwing session and will move forward in his preparations for the season. His next step will be another live batting practice or his Grapefruit League debut per the injuries and roster moves page on MLB.com. He’s a key component in the leverage ladder recording four wins, three saves, and 23 holds last year with a 1.03 WHIP and 19.1 K-BB percentage. 

Hierarchy remains: Kenley Jansen | Chris Martin | Josh Winckowski

Seattle Mariners – Multiple updates about the Mariners bullpen were posted on “X”. First, Ryan Divish shared Ryne Stanek will appear in a Cactus League game in the coming days. He also reported Matt Brash will long toss at max effort then progress to a mound in the next few days if there’s no lingering soreness. Last, but not least, Gregory Santos is rehabbing and resting, but not throwing. No timetable for his return until he commences a throwing program. 

Hierarchy for Opening Day remains: Andrés Muñoz | Ryne Stanek | Gabe Speier

Quick Hits (Game Recaps from March 16)

Atlanta Braves – A traffic-laden outing by Raisel Iglesias did not result in any runs despite allowing a hit and two walks during his two-thirds of the sixth. He did record one strikeout in this outing but owns a 1.93 WHIP with six strikeouts against four walks through 4.2 innings this spring.

Chicago CubsHector Neris notched his first spring hold, allowing two hits and an earned run while striking out one. Adbert Alzolay fired a clean eighth, striking out two for his first hold. He owns a 0.50 WHIP with six strikeouts against one walk over six innings. Julian Merryweather recorded his first spring save with a clean ninth, striking out the side.

Cincinnati Reds – Suffering his first blown save this spring, Alexis Díaz allowed two hits, including a two-run home run, and recorded two strikeouts. This marked his fourth outing and he owns a 1.50 WHIP with seven strikeouts versus two walks.

Houston Astros – In an eventual loss, Ryan Pressly fired a clean fifth, striking out one. He’s posted a 1.00 WHIP with three strikeouts over four innings. Bryan Abreu gave up two hits, four earned runs, and two walks during two-thirds of the sixth. He’s struggled this spring and owns a 2.73 WHIP with five strikeouts against six walks through 3.2 innings.

Miami Marlins –  In an eventual tie, George Soriano worked a scoreless fifth, giving up a hit. Tanner Scott completed an inning, this is not a test. He allowed a hit and recorded a strikeout during a scoreless sixth. He threw 17 pitches (12 strikes – 70.6 Strike%) and induced three whiffs (17.6 SwStr%). Hopefully, this will be an outing he can build on moving forward:

Milwaukee Brewers –  Collecting his first win, Hoby Milner fired 1.1 clean innings. Trevor Megill took the baton in the seventh, facing two hitters, and retired both for his second hold. Suddenly on fantasy players’ radars, he owns a 1.33 WHIIP with five strikeouts against one walk over six innings.

Oakland A’s – In a split-squad game against Milwaukee,  a rough outing alert by Trevor Gott. He was tagged with his first loss, giving up four hits, five earned runs, and two walks without recording an out in the fifth inning. Lucas Erceg also struggled, allowing two hits, three earned runs, and two walks in the sixth.

Seattle Mariners – For a second straight outing, Andrés Muñoz struggled, giving up two hits and an earned run in two-thirds of the sixth. He’s made five appearances this spring, posting a 1.07 WHIP with five strikeouts and zero walks over 4.2 innings.

Texas Rangers – During a split-squad game against Arizona, Kirby Yates fired a clean sixth, striking out one. Through five appearances this spring, he owns a 0.80 WHIP with eight strikeouts versus one walk. 

Closer Monkey’s filthy sequence of the day winner goes to Luis Gil, featuring his change-up and slider.

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Until next time, stay safe and be well, especially on this celebration of St. Patrick’s Day.

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American League East 2024 Preview

March 13, 2024

Baltimore Orioles – As a team last year, the Orioles finished second in the American League in saves, fueled by the breakout season turned in by Félix Bautista. He will miss the season after undergoing elbow surgery, but all will not be lost for the franchise. Craig Kimbrel signed as a free agent and will take over as the primary save share. He finished third in strikeouts among qualified relievers in the National League in 2023 and converted 23 of 28 save chances for the Phillies. Yennier Cano will operate as the eighth inning option, and will often take on the toughest lineup pockets on opposing teams. He logged 72 appearances last year and tied for the major-league lead in holds (31). Getting Dillon Tate back and using Danny Coulombe versus left-handed pockets will enhance the bridge options for the upcoming season.

With this in mind, here’s the team’s high-leverage results over the last three years:

Projected 2024 Hierarchy: Craig Kimbrel | Yennier Cano | Dillon Tate

Primary Holds Candidates: Cano, Coulombe, Mike Baumann, Keegan Akin

Boston Red Sox After tipping their hand about potentially trading Kenley Jansen, he remains a Red Sox as of this writing. He will open the season as their “closer” unless a last-minute deal occurs. Even though he missed time down the stretch, he went 29-for-33 in save opportunities last year (87.9 save percentage) and he’s tied for ninth all-time with nine seasons with 30 or more saves. How he performs early on may set his trade market. He’s an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season. Chris Martin played Robin to Jansen’s Batman well last year, recording a team-high 23 holds along with three saves, and 46 strikeouts against eight walks over 51.1 innings. His 1.03 WHIP makes him an alluring target in leagues with holds or SOLDS categories. With eyes on the future, the team signed Liam Hendriks. He plans on returning near the Trade Deadline (August 2), but how much and in what situations Boston deploys him in will be determined as the season progresses.

Here’s Boston’s high-leverage results since 2021:

Projected 2024 Hierarchy: Kenley Jansen | Chris Martin | Josh Winckowski

Primary Holds Candidates: Martin, Winckowski, Isaiah Campbell, Brennan Bernardino, Justin Slaten, Greg Weissert

New York Yankees – This bullpen may lean heavily on Clay Holmes early on this year. He turned in a career-high 24 saves last season and finished strong being scoreless in 12 of his last 13 outings. His 66 appearances in 2023 represent the second most in his career and he will utilize his 64.8 ground ball percentage in leverage events. However, getting him to save situations may be a weak link for this bullpen. Tommy Kahnle will open the season on the injured list and oft injured Jonathan Loáisiga projects as the main set-up option early on. One bright spot will be Ian Hamilton. He will take over the vacated multi-inning role filled by Michael King last year, and has shoved so far this spring. In deeper formats, he will retain value by providing vulture wins, ancillary saves, and strikeout upside.

Since 2021, here’s how this leverage ladder has performed in high-leverage events:

Projected 2024 Hierarchy: Clay Holmes | Jonathan Loáisiga | Ian Hamilton

Primary Holds Candidates: Loáisiga, Caleb Ferguson, Nick Burdi

Tampa Bay Rays – It happened, the Rays stopped spreading the wealth in the bullpen and relied upon Pete Fairbanks as their “closer” when he was not on the injured list. He set career highs in appearances (49), innings (45.1), strikeouts (68), and saves (25). He also ranked seventh among American League relievers with an 86.2 save percentage. His save total represented the most by a Tampa Bay reliever since Sergio Romo recorded 25 in 2018. Setting him up affably, and filling in as the “closer” when necessary, Jason Adam remains a rock in this leverage ladder. Through 117.2 innings with the Rays, he ons a 0.875 WHIP with 144 strikeouts versus 37 walks, and secured 20 saves. Colin Poche led all relievers with 12 wins last season, but it’s a tough feat to repeat. He’s only the sixth reliever in team history with consecutive 65-plus game seasons.

Taking all of this in, here’s the teams high-leverage results since 2021:

Projected 2024 Hierarchy: Pete Fairbanks | Jason Adam | Colin Poche

Primary Holds Candidates: Adam, Poche, Shawn Armstrong, Garrett Cleavinger

Toronto Blue Jays – Anchoring a deep, and pliable leverage ladder, Jordan Romano has recorded 36 saves in back-to-back seasons. He accomplished this total despite missing 18 days with back inflammation during the second half. His durability will determine his ceiling for 2024, along with how he handles left-handed hitters, but from a saves standpoint, he remains a reliable source. Erik Swanson set career-bests in games (69), innings (66.2), and strikeouts (75) in his first season with Toronto. He also finished third in the American League with 29 holds. Tim Mayza, Yimi García, Chad Green, and Trevor Richards will also factor as bridge relievers this year.

Here’s the Blue Jays high-leverage trends since 2021:

Projected 2024 Hierarchy: Jordan Romano | Erik Swanson | Yimi García

Primary Holds Candidates: Swanson, García, Tim Mayza, Chad Green, Trevor Richards

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Spring Vibes, March 13: Injury Updates, Colorado’s Closer Competition, Game Recaps and more

With Opening Day (stateside) just over two weeks away, injury news may determine a player’s availability when the season begins. Results in games will vary as well with relievers experiencing a “dead arm” phase in their buildups. Here are the notes of interest from a fantasy perspective.

Milwaukee Brewers – Per Sophia Minnaert of Bally Sport Wisconsin, Devin Williams will see a spine specialist on Wednesday, while the fantasy community holds its collective breath about the severity of his back issues. He will undergo further imaging at his appointment.

Chicago White Sox – For a bullpen already stretched thin on talent, updates on Wednesday did not go well for the leverage ladder. Jimmy Lambert has been experiencing lingering shoulder issues and will see Dr. ElAttrache in Los Angeles for a second opinion. Later on, Daryl Van Schouwen reported Prelander Berroa will be sidelined with an arm/shoulder area issue, with an update pending clarification. On MLB.com’s injuries and roster moves page, manager Pedro Grifol said Berroa pitched with reduced velocity in his last outing against Colorado and will see the team doctors. Less than optimal, unless one prefers taking a “Leasure“-ly approach for targeting saves in this bullpen.

Updated hierarchy for the White Sox: John Brebbia | Jordan Leasure | Tim Hill

Seattle Mariners – In the never ending injury saga for the this leverage ladder, Gregory Santos felt a pinch” in his lat, and will be shut down for a few days, which will keep him sidelined on Opening Day. Daniel Kramer and Ryan Divish broke the news on “X”. 

In a separate column by Daniel Kramer of MLB.com about how Seattle’s bullpen will take shape after Santos’ injury, he speculated Andrés Muñoz will work almost exclusively in the save situations. Because of this, Ryne Stanek will open the season as the primary set-up reliever. However, two relievers may be selected from the “Steckenrider” bucket. 

Updated hierarchy for Seattle: Andrés Muñoz | Ryne Stanek | Gabe Speier

These next two teams feature a camp battle for the “closer” role.

Colorado Rockies – As each game passes, the “closer” competition heats up. On Tuesday, Tyler Kinley notched his first hold this spring, firing a clean seventh, striking out one. He threw 11 pitches (54.5 Strike%) and induced two whiffs (18.2 SwStr%). He owns a 0.60 WHIP with seven strikeouts versus two walks over five innings. Justin Lawrence also worked a clean outing in the eighth, recording a strikeout for his second hold on 12 pitches (50 Strike%) with one whiff. He’s made six appearances this spring, posting a 1.17 WHIP with nine strikeouts against one walk through six innings. 

Oakland A’s –  In his latest roster projection for MLB.com, Martín Gallegos wrote Mason Millerlines up as the closer“, with Lucas Erceg, Dany Jiménez, and Trevor Gott all in the mix for high-leverage situations. Until Mark Kotsay confirms Miller’s role, it’s purely speculation. However, the talented pitcher’s outings and eye-popping velocities may result in a reliable reliever in save opportunities. 

Quick Hits (Game Recaps from March 12)

Baltimore Orioles – Making his third appearance this spring, Yennier Cano retired the side in order, recording two strikeouts. He owns a 0.33 WHIP with five strikeouts against zero walks over three innings. Cionel Pérez navigated around two hits and a walk for a scoreless sixth.

Los Angeles DodgersEvan Phillips worked a scoreless eighth inning, walking one and striking out one. He’s made five appearances this spring, recording a 0.40 WHIP with six strikeouts versus one walk over five innings.

Oakland A’s –  Although he let his only inherited runner score, Dany Jiménez collected his first spring win, giving up a hit and a walk while retiring two batters in the fifth. After five outings this spring, he owns a 1.07 WHIP with five strikeouts against two walks through 4.2 innings.

San Francisco Giants – Getting in work during the fourth inning, Camilo Doval navigated around two hits for a scoreless outing. This marked his fourth outing this spring, he owns a 1.25 WHIP with five strikeouts against two walks over four innings.

Washington NationalsHunter Harvey fired 1.1 clean frames while striking out two. He’s made five spring outings and owns a 1.13 WHIP with a 9:1 K:BB over 5.1 innings. Kyle Finnegan faced two batters, striking both out, in the top of the ninth. He’s logged five appearances and posed a 0.43 WHIP with nine strikeouts against one walk.

Closer Monkey’s filthy outing of the day goes to prospect, Jackson Jobe. He will be a starting pitcher, but recorded his first spring save, turning in a clean ninth, and striking out two while hitting triple digits on the radar.

Until next time, stay safe and be well.

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Tiered Rankings (March 1, 2024)

With March upon us and draft season on the horizon, it’s time for the first run of tiered rankings. It’s difficult to choose which reliever will be the “closer” for a few teams, and many may prefer avoiding certain situations, like these three:

At present, there are three writers ready at the wheel for Closer Monkey fueled by Reliever Recon. Myself (Greg Jewett), Nate Marcum, and Aaron Pags. Being three individuals, there will be different relievers in each of our tiers, but they will be shared at the same time with quick thoughts or explanations of why our tier differs from the perceived consensus. As with any rankings, they are our own, not gospel. If anyone feels differently about a reliever, then it’s clear how they should handle him during their draft or auction. Enjoy.

Tier One

Greg

  • Edwin Díaz (NYM)
  • Jhoan Durán (MIN)
  • Devin Williams (MIL)
  • Emmanuel Clase (CLE)

Nothing crazy here. Strong “closer” candidates with ratio insulation, and three with strikeout upside. Many remain wary of Emmanuel Clase but he’s entering his Age-26 season coming off a career-worst WHIP courtesy of an inflated batting average on balls in play (BAbip). His team construct helps save chances accumulate. If he cuts his blown saves in half last year, he would have made a run at 50. Jhoan Durán remains the reliever I believe will turn in the breakout performance of the year. He could record 100 strikeouts, last year 473 of his 1,017 pitches were 100 m.p.h. or faster in 2023, most among MLB pitchers. He’s thrown 865 100-plus pitches since 2022, also the most among major-league pitchers.

Nate

  • Edwin Díaz (NYM)
  • Raisel Iglesias (ATL)
  • Emmanuel Clase (CLE)
  • Jhoan Durán (MIN)

The common names atop most draft boards when it’s time for RP.  A notable exception is Devin Williams, which is not a slight on his potential, but based on the potential for a trade when the Brewers are no longer contenders.  While the fire has supposedly been extinguished, I still have my reservations.  The name I have in my 1st Tier that could seem out of place to some is Raisel Iglesias.  Iglesias’ strikeout percentage was a tick down, but his ground ball rate was supported by a solid Braves infield.  As good a chance as there is in baseball for 30 saves, that is if the Braves don’t win every game by 10.

Aaron

  • Josh Hader (HOU)
  • Devin Williams (MIL)
  • Emmanuel Clase (CLE)
  • Camilo Doval (SFG)
  • Edwin Díaz (NYM)

The Doval Guy

So, I am the Doval guy! And it has nothing to do with his ability but is 100 percent about his stability. For me, he is one of five relievers with a less than one percent chance of losing their job to anyone on their team’s roster. That makes him a tier-one closer.
But also, Camilo Doval‘s 2023 season showcased him as a vital force for the San Francisco Giants, marked by impressive stats, including a 2.93 ERA over 67.2 innings and 87 strikeouts. Despite a rocky start and a notable streak of four consecutive blown saves, a first for a Giants closer, Doval demonstrated resilience and excellence, especially from May onwards, significantly contributing to the team’s midseason turnaround. His stellar performance, underscored by his All-Star selection, solidified his status as a key player, despite a late-season slump that raised questions about overuse.

Tier Two

Greg:

  • Raisel Iglesias (ATL)
  • Josh Hader (HOU)
  • Andrés Muñoz (SEA)
  • Camilo Doval (SFG)
  • Pete Fairbanks (TBR)
  • Jordan Romano (TOR)
  • David Bednar (PIT)

Some veterans mixed in with a little bit of upside. Recent news about Matt Brash means Andrés Muñoz could gain the primary save share like Paul Sewald held last year. If he notches 30 or more saves and remains healthy, he’s a top-five reliever in fantasy. There may be some migration toward the mean for David Bednar and Camilo Doval, but they each secured 39 saves last year. For Pete Fairbanks, it’s all about health. More innings yield more fantasy goodness. I’m likely the low man on Josh Hader. He’s seen his K-BB percentage decline in each of the last two years, he’s in a deep bullpen, and not recorded more than 60 innings since 2019.

**With the recent injury news about Bednar, he’s been moved to the end of this tier.**

Nate:

  • Devin Williams (MIL)
  • Josh Hader (HOU)
  • Pete Fairbanks (TBR)
  • David Bednar (PIT)
  • Evan Phillips (LAD)
  • Camilo Doval (SFG)
  • Andrés Muñoz (SEA)

This tier is where I will most likely do most of my RP fishing during drafts.  The concerns I have for Williams’ team security are minimal.  Hader may have his hiccups, but with a track record as long as his, the double-digit walk percentage in three of the last four years is a wart worth looking past.  The fact that he hasn’t had 60-plus innings means the days of 100 strikeouts are gone.  If I could get a full season out of Fairbanks guaranteed, he may appear in the first tier in 2025. The Rays’ neglect for a true closer may be over.  Evan Phillips may be the “outlier” in this tier for me.  Similar to Iglesias and others, his team construct is set to build up his save total “floor”, but may limit his “ceiling” with their offensive output.  Over the past two seasons, Phillips has a combined 1.59 ERA and 0.80 WHIP.  Andrés Muñoz’s value remains intact with the news of Matt Brash’s injury.  Both Camilo Doval and David Bednar are convenient RP1 anchors for those who want to cast their line into the second tier.

Aaron:

  • Jordan Romano (TOR)
  • Raisel Iglesias (ATL)
  • Alexis Díaz (CIN)
  • Jhoan Durán (MIN)
  • David Bednar (PIT)
  • Paul Sewald (ARI)
  • Evan Phillips (LAD)
  • Andrés Muñoz (SEA)

Durán’s Health


I know you can say, “But health…” for anyone, however, Jhoan Durán has a history that shouldn’t be dismissed quickly. He missed the 2020 season due to COVID-19 and experienced arm issues in 2021. Despite a strong start post-recovery, he struggled in June and was shut down for the season without undergoing surgery. In 2022, he showed promise in spring training, secured a spot on the Opening Day roster, and became a key bullpen arm, cautiously managing to avoid overuse. His performance in 2023 was strong, marked by a slight increase in ERA and WHIP but maintained a high strikeout rate, despite not being selected as an All-Star. But, he was unleashed more often than last year. His powerful pitching arm also raises concerns about potential injury risks, as has been noted in many studies of the past.

Tier Three

Greg

  • Alexis Díaz (CIN)
  • Evan Phillips (LAD)
  • Tanner Scott (MIA)
  • Ryan Helsley (STL)
  • Paul Sewald (ARI)
  • Craig Kimbrel (BAL)
  • Clay Holmes (NYY)
  • Adbert Alzolay (CHC)

If the Reds can keep Alexis Díaz fresh, he may finish the season strong, but it’s still an if. When viewing his end-of-year statistics, do not forget he owned a 2.10 ERA and 36 saves through his first 66 games (until September 15). Tanner Scott provides strikeout upside if the command gains hold. Evan Phillips represents the only qualified reliever to do this over the last two years. Ryan Helsley could be the steal in this tier if he’s healthy all season. Steady and unsexy options also lie in this tier like Craig Kimbrel, Paul Sewald, Clay Holmes, and Adbert Alzolay.

Nate

  • Paul Sewald (ARI)
  • Tanner Scott (MIA)
  • Ryan Helsley (STL)
  • Alexis Díaz (CIN)
  • Jordan Romano (TOR)
  • Clay Holmes (NYY)

The best “values” could be in my third tier.  Alexis Diaz flashed in his first season as “the guy” in Cincy.  Diaz’s 37 saves still only accounted for 70 percent of the Reds’ total saves.  Seeing how his second half compared to his first, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him with a similar team save percentage. Oliver Marmol turned to Ryan Helsley down the stretch of 2023 and was rewarded with a 0.77 ERA, a .108 batting average against, and a 0.86 WHIP.  There will be many who don’t trust the Cardinals’ to stick with Helsley, but I think they will. 

Aaron

  • Tanner Scott (MIA)
  • Clay Holmes (NYY)
  • Pete Fairbanks (TBR)
  • Craig Kimbrel (BAL)
  • José Alvarado (PHI)
  • Ryan Helsley (STL)
  • Kenley Jansen (BOS)

Tier Four

Greg:

  • Kenley Jansen (BOS)
  • José Alvarado (PHI)
  • Hunter Harvey (WSH)
  • Carlos Estévez (LAA)
  • Robert Suarez (SDP)
  • Alex Lange (DET)

Welcome into the volatile tier of relievers. This could be where many see a cliff during their drafts. Kenley Jansen could be a fallback option for many, but where he pitches will make a difference. A trade could move him up, or down in this process. José Alvarado has the velocity and skillset, but his pre-and-post-injury splits last year cannot be ignored. Carlos Estévez and Alex Lange may open the year as the preferred save option for their respective teams, but can they stay there?

Nate

  • Craig Kimbrel (BAL)
  • Adbert Alzolay (CHC)
  • Kenley Jansen (BOS)
  • José Alvarado (PHI)

If you don’t have your first reliever by now, let’s hold hands and say a prayer.  While there are many household names (Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen), it will require some guts to trust as your RP anchor.  Both of those two are in situations that are conducive to plenty of opportunities, but what they do with those opportunities is yet to be seen.   Jansen is also “most likely to screw up a good closer situation for another team” in 2024.

Alvarado will get the first crack this season, but injuries were rough last year, and we have Pags along with my favorite “closer in waiting”, Orion Kerkering lurking.  Say that five times fast.

Aaron

  • Robert Suarez (SDP)
  • Kyle Finnegan (WSH)
  • Mason Miller (OAK)
  • Alex Lange (DET)
  • Will Smith (KCR)
  • Adbert Alzolay (CHC)
  • Robert Stephenson (LAA)

Wild for Will

If you told me that I would ever be the high-man on Will Smith in reliever rankings, I would have laughed in your face. His fastball STINKS ON ICE! However, he always seems to wriggle his way into promising fantasy baseball situations. Kansas City is no different. Veteran presence during a rebuild is a must, especially in high leverage spots. Sure, a trade is always likely with the Royals and their relievers, but saves in April, May, June, and July can equate to value. Just jump off the bucking horse before it’s too late.

Tier Five

Greg

  • José Leclerc (TEX)
  • Kyle Finnegan (WSH)
  • Will Smith (KCR)
  • Yuki Matsui (SDP)
  • Mason Miller (OAK)
  • Tyler Kinley (COL)
  • John Brebbia (CWS)

Pick your poison in this tier. It’s sort of wide open and should be used as an end-game option during a build. For the “never pay for saves” crowd, this will be what it looks like at the end of your draft. Feeling lucky? From purely a skills perspective, Miller could be a steal in this tier if the A’s make him their primary save share. But it’s speculative until his manager anoints him.

Nate:

  • José Leclerc (TEX)
  • Alex Lange (DET)
  • Yuki Matsui (SDP)
  • Kyle Finnegan (WSH)

I would love to have one of these relievers as my third RP, but grabbing three RPs in a draft and still having balance is nearly impossible.  That being said, each of these as your RP2 could result in a full season of production, but most likely indigestion.  Alex Lange gets mentioned in the same breath as Mark Melancon, which is gross.  I can’t quit José Leclerc, but I acknowledge that he needs to throw strikes to keep his job.  Yuki Matsui could see his draft stock rise during the Spring, but I still think it could be an uphill battle to overtake Suarez.  I have Matsui here and not Suarez because I think Matsui will eventually take the job.  In Washington, it’s choose your stance.  Harvey is the better pitcher.  Finnegan has a “proven” track record of saves.

Aaron:

  • Hunter Harvey (WSH)
  • José Leclerc (TEX)
  • Jason Adam (TBR)
  • Ryan Pressly (HOU)
  • Hector Neris (CHC)
  • David Robertson (TEX)

Thanks for checking out our reliever tiers. If interested, check out Closer Monkey’s updated bullpen depth charts.

Spring Vibes, March 18: Leclerc trending toward closing in Texas, Stephenson update, Finnegan’s back, Game Recaps, and more

Texas Rangers – It’s déjà vu all over again, with Bruce Bochy indicating he will begin the season with José Leclerc as the “closer” in this tweet by Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News on “X”. After struggling with an injury early on in 2023, Leclerc converted four of five save chances during the postseason with a 14:6 K:BB through 13.2 innings. With the Rangers adding David Robertson and Kirby Yates in free agency, the margin for error remains thin for maintaining the top spot in this bullpen’s leverage ladder. Last year, Leclerc’s rebound from August forward coincided with a rise in his velocity. Monitor this, and his command, early on this season, they will be harbingers of him remaining in the role.

Updated Hierarchy: José Leclerc | David Robertson | Josh Sborz

Los Angeles Angels –  In a column by Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register, Robert Stephenson will not be ready for Opening Day. He’s been throwing, but then the discomfort resurfaces. Although an MRI has only shown inflammation, the team will not rush him into game action so he’s available for the rest of the season. Plan accordingly in upcoming drafts. 

Updated Hierarchy: Carlos Estévez | Matt Moore | José Soriano

Washington Nationals –  It’s not considered serious, but manager Davey Martinez mentioned Kyle Finnegan has been dealing with a “stiff back” and will receive a bit more rest, then pitch on Wednesday (March 20) per Mark Zuckerman’s post on MASN. He last appeared on March 12, retiring both batters faced via strikeout. 

Hierarchy remains: Kyle Finnegan | Hunter Harvey | Tanner Rainey

Boston Red SoxWith the team narrowing down its pitchers vying for the rotation, Josh Winckowski will re-join the bullpen per Sean McAdam of MassLive. Last year, he went 4-4 as a reliever with three saves, 18 holds, a 13.9 K-BB percentage through 59 relief appearances. However, if he will work in multiple-inning outings, the third in line may be Isaiah Campbell or Greg Weissert, so this will be monitored closely over the next week. In a separate note, Kenley Jansen threw a light bullpen and will log his second spring outing on Monday (March 18) against the Twins, courtesy of Alex Speier of the Boston Globe

Hierarchy remains: Kenley Jansen | Chris Martin | Josh Winckowski

Quick Hits (Game Recaps from March 17)

Baltimore OriolesYennier Cano gave up three hits and an earned run in the seventh. This marked his fourth appearance and he’s posted a 1.00 WHIP with five strikeouts over four innings.

Cleveland Guardians – Back on track after a rough outing, Emmanuel Clase recorded his third spring hold, tossing a scoreless seventh, yielding a hit, and striking out one. He’s made six appearances this spring, posting a 1.50 WHIP with 10 strikeouts against one walk over six innings.

Kansas City Royals – Appearing in the sixth inning, Will Smith allowed a hit, an earned run, and a walk. This marked his sixth spring outing and he owns a 1.33 WHIP with three strikeouts and three walks through six innings.

Miami Marlins – Securing his second hold, Sixto Sánchez fired two clean frames while striking out one. He threw 20 pitches (65 Strike%) and produced two whiffs. Through four spring appearances, he’s posted a 0.50 WHIP with four strikeouts over six innings.

Oakland A’s – Dany Jiménez retired both batters faced, recording a strikeout. He owns a 0.79 WHIP with eight strikeouts versus two walks over 6.1 innings. Mason Miller navigated around two hits while striking out two for a scoreless eighth. He’s posted a 0.60 WHIP with nine strikeouts against zero walks through five innings.

Milwaukee Brewers – Taking over in the fifth, Joel Payamps stranded both inherited runners, and worked 1.2 scoreless frames, striking out two while collecting his first win this spring. Elvis Peguero turned in two clean frames, striking out four for his first hold. Abner Uribe notched his first save of the spring, tossing a scoreless ninth, giving up a hit, and striking out two. One should not overreact, however, Payamps entered a messy situation and handled it, with Uribe closing out the contest. This may happen in the regular season as well with Pat Murphy’s match-up based approach.

New York Mets – Edwin Díaz made his second outing, firing a clean sixth. He threw 10 pitches (50 Strike%) without a whiff. Through two clean appearances, he’s recorded three strikeouts.

Philadelphia Phillies – Entering in the fifth, Jeff Hoffman retired the side in order, recording one strikeout. He threw 11 pitches (6 strikes – 54.5 Strike%) and induced three whiffs (27.3 SwStr%). Seranthony Domínguez secured his second hold despite giving up two hits and two runs (one earned) while striking out one on 15 pitches (11 strikes – 73.3 Strike%) with one whiff. Gregory Soto notched his first spring hold, tossing a scoreless seventh, yielding a hit, and striking out two.

San Diego Padres – During an exhibition game versus Team Korea, Robert Suarez recorded a save, working around a hit and a walk with a pop-up, then a game-ending double play groundout. He threw 14 pitches (50 Strike%) and induced one whiff.

Tampa Bay Rays – Making his third appearance this spring, Pete Fairbanks gave up a hit during a scoreless fourth. He’s posted a 1.33 WHIP with three strikeouts over three innings.

Closer Monkey’s filthy pitch of the day was awarded to Sixto Sánchez, video courtesy of the Pitching Ninja.

Stay safe and be well.

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