2016 AL West preview

February 29, 2016

Houston Astros — Ken Giles finally became the closer in Philadelphia after the Jonathan Papelbon trade, and he excelled, collecting 15 saves and striking out 87 hitters in 70 innings. Now the 25-year-old should get the chance at his first full season as a closer — although Luke Gregerson isn’t too pleased about losing his job. Gregerson hasn’t thrown off a mound yet this spring due to a sore oblique. Pat Neshek could grab some vulture saves during the season.

Starting 2016 hierarchy: Giles | Gregerson | Neshek.
Holds candidates: Gregerson, Neshek, Tony Sipp.

Los Angeles Angels — The consistent Huston Street returns as Angels closer after another 40-save season. The 32-year-old didn’t have his strongest season in 2015, as his ERA, WHIP, and BAA all rose above career averages, while his K/9 number dropped. Behind Street is Joe Smith, who will be entering his third year in LA and the final year of his contract. Also entering his third year with the team is Fernando Salas, who’s coming off an up-and-down campaign.

Starting 2016 hierarchy: Street | Smith | Salas.
Holds candidates: Smith, Salas, Mike Morin, Al Alburquerque.

Oakland A’s — Sean Doolittle, who missed the majority of last season with a shoulder injury, will begin 2016 as the A’s closer. He flashed some promising signs at the end of 2015, collecting four saves over his final six appearances. Oakland also signed two veteran relievers to add some depth behind Doolittle — Ryan Madson and John Axford. Watch out for Australian flame-thrower Liam Hendriks, who found success in Toronto as a relief pitcher after years as a mediocre starter.

Starting 2016 hierarchy: Doolittle | Madson | Axford.
Holds candidates: Madson, Axford, Marc Rzepczynski.

Seattle Mariners — The Mariners traded away Carson Smith and Tom Wilhelmsen in the offseason, leaving an already fragile bullpen in shambles. Steve Cishek will close for now; he has closing experience, but struggled in Miami last year and lost his job quickly. 38-year-old Joaquin Benoit will back up Cishek; he comes off a strong season setting up Craig Kimbrel in San Diego. Keep an eye on September call-up Tony Zych, whom the Mariners received from the Cubs for only $1 last year. Zych, 25, has a fastball that can touch 99 and a wicked slider. His star will rise if he can calm his control issues.

Starting 2016 hierarchy: Cishek | Benoit | Zych.
Holds candidates: Benoit, Charlie Furbush, Evan Scribner.

Texas Rangers — Shawn Tolleson returns to the fold after a very solid 2015 season, which included 35 saves and 3 scoreless innings in the ALDS. Tolleson is followed closely by Keone Kela, who turns 23 in April and will likely close in Texas one day. For now, he’s a filthy setup man in a strong bullpen. In the offseason, the Rangers picked up former closer Tom Wilhelmsen, who has had tremendous success against division rivals, including the Angels (Mike Trout is 1-12, Albert Pujols is 3-16) and Astros (Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, Evan Gattis and George Springer are a combined 1-21).

Starting 2016 hierarchy: Tolleson | Kela | Wilhelmsen.
Holds candidates: Kela, Wilhelmsen, Sam Dyson.

 

Kevin Jepsen and Mark Lowe get dealt on Deadline Day

August 1, 2015

Colorado Rockies — As we predicted Friday morning, John Axford lost his job as Rockies closer after a string of five straight miserable appearances. Walt Weiss said that he had not yet decided who would take over, but name-checked Tommy Kahnle, Rafael Betancourt, and Justin Miller, who had six saves at AAA Albuquerque this season. A 7-0 loss to St. Louis on Friday night didn’t exactly clear anything up.

Updated hierarchy: *Kahnle | Betancourt | Miller.
* = closer-by-committee

Seattle Mariners — Carson Smith can breathe a little easier today; Mark Lowe, his most talented competition for high-leverage work, was sent to Toronto in a deadline deal. Fernando Rodney and his 5.57 ERA move up by default, with Vidal Nuno holding down second in line, at least until Charlie Furbush can return from the disabled list (biceps tendinitis) in mid-August.

Updated hierarchy: Smith | Rodney | Nuno.

Minnesota Twins – Although the Twins have foundered as of late, losing 9 of 13 since the All-Star break, the team has hung onto the second wild card position. Their acquisition of Kevin Jepsen should help strengthen a suspect bullpen that has relied on the lackluster duo of Casey Fien and Blaine Boyer to bridge the gap to Glen Perkins. Joining Jepsen in high-leverage use will be erstwhile starter Trevor May, a rookie with swing-and-miss stuff.

Updated hierarchy: Perkins | Jepsen | May.

Tampa Bay Rays — After all the rumors, the only Tampa reliever to get dealt at the deadline was Kevin Jepsen, who will head to the Twins. Steve Geltz (45 K in 48.2 IP, 0.88 WHIP) returns to the hierarchy at second in line. Jake McGee coughed up a lead in the eighth Friday night, but his role should remain secure.

Updated hierarchy: Boxberger | McGee | Geltz.

Toronto Blue Jays — Seventh innings will be crowded at the Rogers Centre, with word that the Blue Jays acquired strikeout machine Mark Lowe from Seattle on Friday. We’ll wait and see where Lowe fits into the pecking order of second-tier relievers that includes LaTroy Hawkins, Bo Schultz, and Brett Cecil.

Hierarchy remains: *Osuna | Sanchez | Hawkins.
* = closer-by-committee

Detroit Tigers — Bruce Rondon pitched the eighth inning on Friday in a road game, meaning that Alex Wilson was probably in line to get a second straight save chance if the Tigers had regained the lead.

Hierarchy remains: *Wilson | Rondon | Alburquerque.
* = closer-by-committee

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Carter Capps, Miami Marlins — In his second straight day of work (and his second inning of the game), A.J. Ramos got rocked for four runs. Throwing 35 pitches means he’ll need Saturday off.
2. Tanner Scheppers/Keone Kela, Texas Rangers — Shawn Tolleson, fresh off being run over by Kela during BP, has pitched in three straight.
3. Jason Motte/Pedro Strop, Chicago Cubs — Hector Rondon has kept busy since returning to the closer role, seeing work on three straight days.
4. Josh Fields, Houston Astros — Luke Gregerson has also gone in three straight, as has Pat Neshek, who took the loss on Friday night.
5. Aaron Sanchez, Toronto Blue Jays — It’s possible that Sanchez gets the next Toronto save chance.
6. Rafael Betancourt/Justin Miller, Colorado Rockies — We’re not sure what Walt Weiss will do with his team’s next save chance.

Weekly Hot Seat Update: June 20, 2015

We currently have three closer committees and each one is a little bit different. Let’s take a look at them in a little greater detail, and think about what they might look like in the short term and the long term.

Tampa Bay Rays — When Jake McGee started the season on the DL, most people thought that whoever started the season as the closer for the Rays would just be keeping it warm until McGee got back.  After all, McGee was coming off a season where he recorded 19 saves, struck out well over a batter per inning, and had an ERA under 2.00.  Brad Boxberger had other ideas, however.  By the time McGee made his season debut on May 17th, Boxberger was already 10 for 10 in save opportunities and had an ERA just over 1.00.  Boxberger picked up five more saves in the month of May, but then the calendar turned to June, and everything seemed to change.  McGee rattled off seven straight scoreless appearances, including saves in three straight outings.  Meanwhile, Boxberger blew a couple of saves and saw his ERA jump over 3.00.  It looked like McGee had all the momentum moving forward.  Then things changed again. On Thursday, Boxberger recorded the save, while McGee took the eighth inning.  There didn’t seem to be any special reasons for this, as the Nationals had two righties and a switch-hitter to start the eighth inning against the lefty McGee, and Boxberger took the top of the order in the ninth.  Again on Friday, Boxberger got the save after McGee pitched the eighth.  It’s hard to read too much into a couple games but usage certainly suggests that Boxberger continues to be the closer.  We think the Rays will use both guys (and mix Kevin Jepsen in as well) to try and keep everyone fresh, but Boxberger should see the majority of save chances.

Seattle Mariners — Carson Smith has recorded the last three saves for the Mariners and his numbers have been fantastic this season.  Still, manager Lloyd McClendon seems to want Fernando Rodney back in his former role as closer.  It took McClendon a long time to remove Rodney from the job, and now, after three scoreless outings, he has already started talking about Rodney getting save opportunities when Smith is unavailable.  If Smith continues to pitch as well as he has, it will be hard to remove him from the closer’s role, but if he falters at all, and Rodney can put together a few more strong appearances, Rodney could get a chance to reclaim the job.

Chicago Cubs — Seven different Rays relievers recorded saves last season when Joe Maddon was the team’s manager.  This year, four different relievers have already picked up saves for the Cubs, even though Maddon said a week ago that he would prefer to have one guy for the ninth inning.  Hector Rondon has gotten most of the save chances, including the most recent one.  Rondon was very good last year and despite a couple blown saves, his numbers are pretty good this year.  Rondon should have a chance to become the full-time closer again for the Cubs, but with Pedro Strop, Jason Motte, (and potentially Rafael Soriano) looming, he needs to make sure he doesn’t slip up.

Chris Hatcher hits DL; Orioles, Brewers see changes

June 18, 2015

Los Angeles Dodgers — The injury struggles continue for the Dodgers, as Chris Hatcher was put on the DL, retroactive to Monday, with a strained oblique. Help may be on the way soon, as Joel Peralta, Brandon League, Paco Rodriguez and Pedro Baez are all on rehab assignments, but until then look for the banged up J.P. Howell to fill in as the emergency option in the Dodgers bullpen.

Updated hierarchy: Jansen | Garcia | Howell.

Baltimore Orioles — Chaz Roe finished the 7th inning ahead of Zach Britton on Wednesday. Nobody is racking up the holds in Baltimore, but Roe has been very impressive since joining the club, sporting a tidy 1.13 ERA and 0.88 WHIP thanks to a great slider as well as a strong sinker. His 17 strikeouts and four walks have helped him edge out Tommy Hunter, who has had an up and down year.

Updated hierarchy: Britton | O’Day | Roe.

Milwaukee Brewers — Will Smith bailed out Jonathan Broxton, finishing the 8th inning for him, presumably while reminding Broxton that if you wanna ball with the kid, you should watch your step in case you fall trying to do what he did. Broxton has had a miserable season, and this latest outing ran his ERA to 7.20. Meanwhile, Jeremy Jeffress has taken the 8th inning ahead of K-Rod twice in the last week. While Broxton has the always valuable “closing experience” to fall back on, his dismal numbers would need to improve before he could really be considered ahead of Smith or Jeffress at this point.

Updated hierarchy: Rodriguez | Smith | Jeffress.

Seattle Mariners – Charlie Furbush got the call to start the 9th inning in a two-run game, but Lloyd McClendon was simply playing the matchups, as he yanked Furbush after he got the lefties in the lineup out. Carson Smith struck out the only batter he faced to snag an easy save. Smith continues to lead the Seattle committee, but this could easily have been Furbush’s save had the last batter been a lefty.

Hierarchy remains: *Smith | Lowe | Furbush.

Texas Rangers – As predicted in yesterday’s Vulture Save Watch, it was Keone Kela who converted the save chance for the Rangers last night as Shawn Tolleson needed a night off.

Hierarchy remains: Tolleson | Kela | Scheppers.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. J.J. Hoover, Cincinnati Reds – Aroldis Chapman has posted back-to-back 17-pitch outings.
2. Blaine Boyer, Minnesota Twins – Glen Perkins tossed 29 pitches on Wednesday.
3. Justin Wilson, New York Yankees – Dellin Betances may need a night off after a five-out save on Wednesday.
4. Jake McGee, Tampa Bay Rays – With the Rays in a committee, McGee may get the next call for a save.

Mariners finally replace Rodney, Pedro Strop picks up save

June 7, 2015

Seattle Mariners — Carson Smith, who received a standing ovation as he entered the game,  pitched a perfect 9th on Saturday night to record his first career save.  Manager Lloyd McClendon finally admitted that Rodney would get some time off from closing to clean up some things.  It looks like it will be a closer-by-committee with Mark Lowe and Charlie Furbush also getting chances situationally.  Carson Smith should get the majority of the save opportunities, but he has only pitched three days in a row once this season, and the Mariners will likely be cautious with his innings.

Updated hierarchy: Smith | Lowe | Furbush.
* = closer-by-committee

Chicago Cubs – After Jason Hammel gave up a homer to Bryce Harper to start the 9th, the Cubs brought on Hector Rondon.  He walked the first batter he faced and was immediately pulled by Joe Maddon.  Pedro Strop came on and picked up his second save of the season.  Madden said after the game that he was not naming a new closer.  However, he did admit that he might try to get Rondon work in some non-save situations.  It sounds like it could be a committee for the near future if Rondon is getting in some work in lower-leverage situations so Strop and Motte could see some save chances while that happens.

Hierarchy remains: *Rondon | Strop | Motte.
* = closer-by-committee

Arizona Diamondbacks – Brad Ziegler pitched a scoreless 9th for his 6th save of the season yesterday.  For the second straight time, it was Addison Reed who pitched the 8th inning ahead of Ziegler.  Reed has been pitching better, and it looked like he might start getting some save chances again, but Ziegler has gotten the call on the last three traditional save opportunities and converted each one.  Ziegler appears to have the job all to himself for now but this could return to a committee if he slips up at all.

Hierarchy remains: Ziegler | Reed | Hudson.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Junichi Tazawa, Boston Red Sox – Koji Uehara has pitched in three straight.
2. Mark Lowe/Charlie Furbush, Seattle Mariners – Carson Smith has pitched in two straight and only gone three in a row once this season so this could be a good day to use Lowe or Furbush.
3. Pedro Strop/Jason Motte, Chicago Cubs – If Joe Maddon decides to use Hector Rondon in a lower-leverage situation, Strop or Motte should see the save opportunity.