Under the Hood: Two Potential Relievers on the “hot” seat

With a new scoring period on the horizon, taking a look at underlying data by struggling relievers may provide an idea of how long their proverbial leash may be. Our first installment will feature two closers struggling with their command after the first week and a half of games.

José Leclerc, Texas Rangers

After anchoring his bullpen during its championship run last year, Leclerc had to earn the ninth inning during Spring Training. He struggled in early outings but earned the trust of Bruce Bochy based on his results from the second half through the playoffs in 2023. However, it’s not translated early on this season.

He’s suffered a loss and recorded a save with two strikeouts versus five walks (-13 K-BB percentage), a 2.50 WHIP, a 56.7 strike percentage, and an 81 percent contact rate through his first four innings. It’s a small sample, but it resembles his first-half struggles last year, not the strong finish. It’s disconcerting seeing a team’s closer rank last in Win Probability Added (a metric on Fangraphs which values if a reliever enhances his team’s chances for a win):

With the bullpen losing Josh Sborz (shoulder) to the 15-day injured list, the depth takes a hit, placing Leclerc under more scrutiny. If his slow start continues, there are two relievers with “closer” experience on the roster in case Bochy makes a change.

Kirby Yates represents one of five relievers in this season’s very limited sample with a K-BB percentage greater than 20, a swinging strike percentage above 15, a strike percentage over 65, and a contact rate allowed of 65 percent or lower:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/POwNE/1/

Remembering it’s a limited timeframe, he’s turned in three scoreless outings with three strikeouts versus zero walks with a 2.14 SIERA, and 0.33 WHIP. He’s been the preferred option by his manager against the toughest left-handed hitting pockets early on, but could take on a larger leverage role if needed.

David Robertson leads his team in holds (4), and also collected a win during his first five appearances, all scoreless. He’s posted a 1.06 WHIP with a 4.28 SIERA, 64 strike percentage, 9.1 K-BB percentage, and allowed a 73.3 percent contact rate.

It’s possible Bochy would prefer a match-up-based approach if Leclerc cannot turn his results around. This will be monitored, but the early data prefers Yates.

Tanner Scott, Miami Marlins

Not only did Scott save his bullpen in the second half, but he was arguably the second most valuable reliever after the All-Star break last year behind Robert Stephenson. However, things went sideways early in spring, and may be improving, but his command has been abysmal through his first four contests. His 2.25 ERA accompanies a 6.46 SIERA and a 1.75 WHIP. He’s recorded five strikeouts against six walks (-4.8 K-BB percentage) with a 57.1 strike percentage, and an 81.8 percent contact rate allowed. Perhaps the biggest concern, his 6.6 swinging strike percentage.

It may be too early for an overreaction, but things must improve if he remains atop the bullpen hierarchy until he’s traded. His pending free agency will give him more save opportunities since there’s no value in a demoted leverage reliever.

Anthony Bender was a popular add in this weekend’s FAAB-run in NFBC contests. He has closer experience and owns a 6:1 K:BB (29.4 K-BB percentage) over 3.2 innings early on. He also boasts a 77.8 percent contact rate allowed while throwing strikes 64.2 percent of his pitches, and a paltry 9.9 swinging strike percentage. Being the highest-leveraged right-handed reliever may yield save chances soon, but there may be traffic on the bases during them.

Andrew Nardi also started slowly but may be righting the ship. He fired a clean outing on Sunday while recording two strikeouts and his underlying data suggests some bad luck in his early outcomes. He also touts a 6:1 K:BB (21.7 K-BB percentage) through his first five games with a 16.62 ERA versus a 2.98 SIERA, 14.7 swinging strike percentage, a 67.4 strike percentage, and a 74.1 percent contact rate allowed.

Fantasy players will monitor this situation closely, but Scott will be provided a runway for finding past form, and the key lies in attacking hitters in the strike zone so his slider can produce whiffs.

Entering game play on Monday, April 8, here are the leaders by reliever categories.

Saves Leaders

  • Emmanuel Clase (CLE) – 4
  • Clay Holmes (NYY) – 4
  • Carlos Estévez (LAA) – 3
  • Kyle Finnegan (WSH) – 3
  • Ryan Helsley (STL) – 3
  • Kenley Jansen (BOS) – 3
  • Evan Phillips (LAD) – 3
  • Robert Suarez (SDP) – 3
  • Abner Uribe (MIL) – 3

Holds Leaders

  • Scott Barlow (CLE) – 4
  • Andrew Kittredge (STL) – 4
  • David Robertson (TEX) – 4

SOLDS (saves plus holds) Leaders

  • Scott Barlow (CLE) – 4
  • Aroldis Chapman (PIT) – 4
  • Emmanuel Clase (CLE) – 4
  • Clay Holmes (NYY) – 4
  • Andrew Kittredge (STL) – 4
  • David Robertson (TEX) – 4

Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community. Stay safe and be well.

Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

Closer Hot Seat update: August 6, 2016

Welcome to our Closer Hot Seat column! We’ll update this space to give you an easy-to-reference guide on who might be closest to losing their jobs. Note that this isn’t necessarily a ranking of the best closers; rather, it’s a guide to job security.

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Latest update: August 6, 2016

It has been quite an eventful past couple weeks.  Between the trade deadline and recent struggles for veteran closers, such as Huston Street and Steve Cishek, there has been a slew of new closers. Carlos Estevez could be replaced at any moment, so the best speculative add is probably Adam Ottavino — but don’t forget about John Axford and Mauricio Cabrera, both of whom are backing up struggling veterans. There’s a pretty big gap between the “warmish” and “hot” seats this week; guys at 23 and above look pretty safe, but the bottom seven are iffy.

Hottest: In a committee or on the verge of losing their job right now.
30. Carlos Estevez (Handcuff: Adam Ottavino)
29. Cam Bedrosian (Handcuff: Fernando Salas)
28. Jake Barrett (Handcuff: Enrique Burgos)

Hot: Guys who could be in danger after their next blown save.
27. Ryan Madson (Handcuff: John Axford)
26. Jim Johnson (Handcuff: Mauricio Cabrera)
25. Santiago Casilla (Handcuff: Sergio Romo)
24. Tony Watson (Handcuff: Neftali Feliz)

Warmish: Two blown saves in a row and these players might be in trouble.
23. Sam Dyson
22. Tyler Thornburg
21. Jeanmar Gomez
20. Ken Giles
19. Tony Cingrani
18. Edwin Diaz
17. Brandon Maurer
16. Brandon Kintzler

Cool: These players would have to blow 3 consecutive saves for their jobs to be in jeopardy.
15. Andrew Miller
14. David Robertson
13. Francisco Rodriguez
12. Roberto Osuna
11. A.J. Ramos
10. Alex Colome
9. Seung Hwan Oh
8. Jeurys Familia
7. Kelvin Herrera
6. Dellin Betances
5. Mark Melancon
4. Craig Kimbrel
3. Aroldis Chapman

Sub-zero: These players would have to blow 4+ consecutive saves for their jobs to be in jeopardy.
2. Zach Britton
1. Kenley Jansen

Closer Hot Seat update: June 13, 2016

Welcome to our weekly Closer Hot Seat column! Each week — usually on Mondays — we’ll update this space to give you an easy-to-reference guide on who might be closest to losing their jobs. Note that this isn’t necessarily a ranking of the best closers; rather, it’s a guide to job security.

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Latest update: June 13, 2016

The closer carousel is beginning to spin as we get to the middle of June.  In the past couple weeks, Luke Gregerson and Kevin Jepsen have lost their jobs due to performance, while Jake McGee went down with an injury.  If you missed out on the replacements for those three guys, where should you look next?  Probably still those teams, as their bullpens are not exactly settled.

Brandon Kintzler leads the committee in Minnesota right now, but Fernando Abad has better numbers, and was likely going to get the call in the ninth on Sunday if all had gone according to plan. Kintzler pitched the eighth with a three-run lead but got no one out, and was pulled for Abad.  Abad went two innings without allowing an earned run, but still got tagged with a blown save because he let one of Kintzler’s runners score to tie the game.

In Houston, Will Harris has been good, but he gave up a run in his last save opportunity. Ken Giles has been pitching better and Gregerson is still hanging around.  Ross Ohlendorf might deserve another look in Cincinnati: Tony Cingrani has seven saves but also five blown saves.  Ohlendorf picked up his first save over the weekend and could challenge for saves if Cingrani keeps struggling — as well as on occasions when Cingrani, the only lefty in the Reds’ bullpen, is used earlier in a game. Santiago Casilla has also had a rough June.  He has two losses and one blown save, and he was pulled from another save opportunity.  Hunter Strickland has classic closer stuff, but Cory Gearrin has been the better pitcher this year.

Hottest: In a committee or on the verge of losing their job right now.
30. Brandon Kintzler (Handcuff: Fernando Abad)

Hot: Guys who could be in danger after their next blown save.
29. Tony Cingrani (Handcuff: Ross Ohlendorf)
28. Will Harris (Handcuffs: Ken Giles, Luke Gregerson)
27. Carlos Estevez (Handcuffs: Jason Motte, Boone Logan)
26. Ryan Madson (Handcuff: Sean Doolittle)
25. Santiago Casilla (Handcuffs: Cory Gearrin, Hunter Strickland)

Warmish: Two blown saves in a row and these players might be in trouble.
24. Jeremy Jeffress
23. Jeanmar Gomez
22. Sam Dyson

Cool: These players would have to blow 3 consecutive saves for their jobs to be in jeopardy.
21. Huston Street
20. Steve Cishek
19. Francisco Rodriguez
18. Roberto Osuna
17. A.J. Ramos
16. Jonathan Papelbon
15. Alex Colome
14. Cody Allen
13. Fernando Rodney
12. Arodys Vizcaino
11. Trevor Rosenthal
10. Jeurys Familia
9. Brad Ziegler
8. David Robertson
7. Hector Rondon
6. Mark Melancon
5. Craig Kimbrel
4. Aroldis Chapman

Sub-zero: These players would have to blow 4+ consecutive saves for their jobs to be in jeopardy.
3. Wade Davis
2. Zach Britton
1. Kenley Jansen

Closer Hot Seat update: May 30, 2016

Welcome to our weekly Closer Hot Seat column! Each week — usually on Mondays — we’ll update this space to give you an easy-to-reference guide on who might be closest to losing their jobs. Note that this isn’t necessarily a ranking of the best closers; rather, it’s a guide to job security.

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Latest update: May 30, 2016

The Reds remain in a committee — you know that — but most of the other relievers on the hot seat this week are ones facing competition from their predecessors. Two of these are DL situations. Brad Boxberger could make his Tampa debut as early as today, and although he’s expected to be eased back into the closer role, everyone anticipates that he’ll get there. The Angels are counting on Huston Street’s return this week too, even if his fastball is a bit underwhelming. Meanwhile, Ryan Madson still has the edge in Oakland, but Sean Doolittle picking up a save on Sunday turns up the heat at least a little. Finally, Kevin Jepsen has been pretty bad for the Twins, but with Glen Perkins taking a week off in his rehab, Minnesota doesn’t have many good alternatives on the horizon.

Hottest: In a committee or on the verge of losing their job right now.
30. Tony Cingrani (Handcuff: Ross Ohlendorf)

Hot: Guys who could be in danger after their next blown save.
29. Alex Colome (DL return: Brad Boxberger)
28. Joe Smith (DL return: Huston Street)
27. Ryan Madson (Handcuff: Sean Doolittle)
26. Kevin Jepsen (Handcuffs: Fernando Abad/Trevor May)

Warmish: Two blown saves in a row and these players might be in trouble.
25. Sam Dyson
24. Jeremy Jeffress
23. Luke Gregerson
22. Santiago Casilla
21. Jeanmar Gomez

Cool: These players would have to blow 3 consecutive saves for their jobs to be in jeopardy.
20. Steve Cishek
19. Francisco Rodriguez
18. A.J. Ramos
17. Jake McGee
16. Cody Allen
15. Fernando Rodney
14. Arodys Vizcaino
13. Roberto Osuna
12. Jeurys Familia
11. Brad Ziegler
10. David Robertson
9. Hector Rondon
8. Jonathan Papelbon
7. Mark Melancon
6. Craig Kimbrel
5. Trevor Rosenthal

Sub-zero: These players would have to blow 4+ consecutive saves for their jobs to be in jeopardy.
4. Aroldis Chapman
3. Wade Davis
2. Zach Britton
1. Kenley Jansen

Closer Hot Seat update: May 2, 2016

Welcome to our weekly Hot Seat column! Each week — usually on Mondays — we’ll update this space to give you an easy-to-reference guide on who might be closest to losing their jobs. Note that this isn’t necessarily a ranking of the best closers; rather, it’s a guide to job security.

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Latest update: May 2, 2016

Outside of Cincinnati and a few injuries, closers have been pretty stable this year.  Ryan Madson is a perfect 8-for-8 in save chances this year and has put some distance between himself and Sean Doolittle.  Fernando Rodney has a 0.00 ERA on the season, while his main competition, Kevin Quackenbush and Brandon Maurer, both have ERAs over 5.00.  Huston Street went down with an injury this past week, but Joe Smith should step right in and be pretty secure as the closer until Street comes back.  Zach Britton drops a tier due to his injury scare, but he seems to have avoided anything major.  Cincinnati’s bullpen is still a mess, and there haven’t been enough save opportunities recently to know what manager Bryan Price is thinking.  Kevin Jepsen blew a couple saves last week, so Trevor May could be a guy to keep an eye on.  Other than that, things have been quiet this year…a little too quiet for those speculating on saves.

Hottest: In a committee or on the verge of losing their job right now.
30. Ross Ohlendorf (Handcuffs: Tony Cingrani, Caleb Cotham)

Hot: Guys who could be in danger after their next blown save.
29. Kevin Jepsen (Handcuff: Trevor May; DL return: Glen Perkins)

Warmish: Two blown saves in a row and these players might be in trouble.
28. Ryan Madson
27. Alex Colome
26. Arodys Vizcaino
25. Francisco Rodriguez
24. Jeanmar Gomez
23. Santiago Casilla
22. Shawn Tolleson

Cool: These players would have to blow 3 consecutive saves for their jobs to be in jeopardy.
21. Fernando Rodney
20. Jake McGee
19. Jeremy Jeffress
18. Roberto Osuna
17. Steve Cishek
16. Joe Smith
15. Hector Rondon
14. Luke Gregerson
13. Jonathan Papelbon
12. Mark Melancon
11. Brad Ziegler
10. Cody Allen
9. A.J. Ramos
8. David Robertson
7. Craig Kimbrel
6. Andrew Miller
5. Jeurys Familia
4. Trevor Rosenthal
3. Zach Britton

Sub-zero: These players would have to blow 4+ consecutive saves for their jobs to be in jeopardy.
2. Wade Davis
1. Kenley Jansen