Monkey Bytes, March 31: Uribe records his second save, Jansen’s “back”, Lange’s command struggles resurface, Houston we have a bullpen problem, Game Recaps, and more

First, and foremost, Happy Easter to those who celebrate. Saturday provided a full slate, though teams on the West Coast played through the rain. Despite this season’s limited sample, chaos reigns supreme across the saves landscape, but perhaps not in Milwaukee.

Milwaukee Brewers – For a second straight day, Pat Murphy called upon Abner Uribe for the save opportunity. Uribe converted his second save, working around a solo home run (Pete Alonso), and striking out two while preserving a one-run win. He threw 18 pitches (72.2 Strike%) and induced three whiffs (16.7 SwStr%). Through two games, he owns a 0.50 WHIP with two strikeouts. Hoby Milner let both inherited runners score, giving up a three-run home run by Brett Baty in the eighth. Bryce Wilson gave up two hits and two earned runs over one-third of the eighth. Trevor Megill navigated around two hits for a scoreless seventh while recording all three outs via strikeout. Elvis Peguero collected his first win, firing two clean frames on 26 pitches. Both Uribe and Megill have pitched in two straight games, which means Joel Payamps should be in line for the save chance, if provided, on Sunday. 

Adjusted Hierarchy: *Abner Uribe | *Joel Payamps | Trevor Megill

Boston Red Sox – It’s a tough spot making an MLB debut in the bottom of the 10th, with a runner in scoring position, and Justin Slaten gave up a walk-off RBI-single by Julio Rodríguez. This handed Joely Rodríguez his first loss and blown save after giving up two hits and three runs (two earned) in one-third of the 10th. Greg Weissert tossed a scoreless ninth, walking one and striking out two, keeping the game tied. Chris Martin worked a scoreless eighth, walking one and striking out one. Isaiah Campbell fired a clean seventh, striking out two. The biggest question remains, where was Kenley Jansen who last pitched on Thursday? In this post-game interview, Alex Cora commented his closer had a tight back and was unavailable. This type of injury can linger, which puts Martin on the radar for a vulture save or as a back-up for them moving forward. It sounds like this was preemptive, but fantasy players must monitor Jansen’s availability closely.

Hierarchy Tentatively Remains: Kenley Jansen | Chris Martin | Josh Winckowski

Detroit Tigers – Logging two scoreless frames, including the bottom of the 10th, Shelby Miller collected his first win. He threw 17 pitches (10 strikes – 58.8 Strike%) with one whiff. Through two clean outings, he’s recorded two strikeouts over three innings. Will Vest worked 1.2 scoreless innings, stranding the bases-loaded in the seventh, and giving up a hit while striking out two, keeping the game tied. Alex Lange entered in the seventh but walked the bases loaded and recorded on out, throwing 23 pitches (8 strikes – 34.8 Strike%). Tyler Holton tossed a scoreless sixth, yielding a hit and striking out one. Alex Faedo turned in 1.2 scoreless innings, allowing a hit and striking out one. This usage pattern lines up Jason Foley and Andrew Chafin for the high-leverage innings if presented on Sunday.

Adjusted Hierarchy: *Jason Foley | *Shelby Miller | Andrew Chafin

Houston Astros – Although we’re only three games into the season, this bullpen has been abysmal. Down by two runs, Josh Hader tossed a scoreless ninth, walking one and striking out two. He threw 18 pitches (11 strikes – 61.1 Strike%) with two whiffs (11.1 SwStr%). He’s appeared in two of the first three games, which puts his status for Sunday in question. Ryan Pressly served up a solo home run (Anthony Volpe) and recorded two strikeouts in the eighth. Bryan Abreu made his season debut but suffered his first loss and blown save, giving up two hits, both home runs, three earned runs, and two walks while striking out one. Less than optimal for what many called a dominant triumvirate in the preseason.

Hierarchy Remains: Josh Hader | Ryan Pressly | Bryan Abreu

Because there were so many high-leverage events of the interest, the remaining recaps will be split by league.

American League Recaps (March 30)

Chicago White Sox – Taking over a tied game in the top of the 10th, Deivi García gave up a go-ahead RBI single by Carson Kelly, scoring the “place” runner, resulting in his first loss. He did record two strikeouts in this outing. John Brebbia retired the 3-4-5 lineup pocket on five pitches in the ninth. Steven Wilson worked a clean eighth versus the 9-1-2 hitters. Tim Hill suffered his first blown save, letting his only inherited runner score on a Kelly single, and recorded two outs. Dominic Leone got credit for his first hold despite serving up a solo home run among his two hits and permitting two earned runs over one-third of the seventh. Jordan Leasure made his MLB debut, tossing a scoreless sixth. He worked around a hit and a walk while striking out one.

Adjusted Hierarchy: *Michael Kopech | *John Brebbia | Steven Wilson

Kansas City Royals – A rough team debut for Will Smith, suffering his first loss while giving up two hits, four earned runs, and two walks in the top of the ninth. He threw 25 pitches (60 Strike%) and produced four whiffs (16 SwStr%). James McArthur got tagged with his first blown save, allowing two hits and an earned run while striking out one in the eighth. John Schreiber navigated around two hits with a strikeout and an inning-ending double play for his first hold.

Hierarchy Remains: Will Smith | James McArthur | John Schreiber

Minnesota Twins – Once again matched up with the top of the Royals lineup, Griffin Jax worked around a one-out walk (Bobby Witt Jr.) for a scoreless eighth, and striking out one while collecting his first win. He threw 12 pitches (7 strikes – 58.3 Strike%) and generated one whiff. Through two games, he owns a 1.00 WHIP with two strikeouts against two walks over two innings. After warming up for a potential save chance, Brock Stewart turned in a scoreless ninth, preserving the four-run win, recording all three outs via strikeout on 22 pitches (68.2 Strike%) with two whiffs. Steven Okert tossed a scoreless combined inning, giving up a hit and a walk while striking out one. Jorge Alcala retired both batters he faced in the seventh inning.

Hierarchy Remains: *Griffin Jax | *Brock Stewart | Steven Okert

New York Yankees – Capping a third straight comeback win in Houston, Clay Holmes secured his second save working a scoreless ninth, working around a hit batter (Jeremy Peña) with three ground outs. He threw 11 pitches (6 strikes – 54.5 Strike%) with one whiff. Ian Hamilton racked up his second hold, firing two clean frames and striking out two on 20 pitches (80 Strike%) while producing six whiffs (30 SwStr%). He’s posted a 0.33 WHIP with three strikeouts through three scoreless innings.

Hierarchy Remains: Clay Holmes | Ian Hamilton | Jonathan Loáisiga

Oakland A’s – An inauspicious season debut for Mason Miller. He allowed three hits, two earned runs, and a walk while striking out one. He threw 30 pitches (19 strikes – 63.3 Strike%) and induced four whiffs (13.3 SwStr%). There may be a transition period for him as a leverage reliever, but there’s not much juice entering a game trailing by seven. Lucas Erceg worked a scoreless eighth, walking one and striking out one. Dany Jiménez logged 1.1 innings, stranding a runner in the fourth, but gave up a hit, two unearned runs, and a walk during his outing. Because of the elevated pitch count for Miller, Erceg could be a vulture save candidate later today.

Hierarchy Remains: *Mason Miller | *Lucas Erceg | Dany Jiménez

Seattle Mariners – Benefiting from a walk-off in the bottom of the 10th, Tayler Saucedo garnered his first win despite letting his only inherited runner score while giving up a hit and a walk over one-third of an inning in the top of the frame. Trent Thornton allowed two hits and two runs (one earned) while recording two outs in the 10th. Austin Voth worked a scoreless ninth, walking one and striking out three. Gabe Speier fired a clean eighth, striking out two on 14 pitches (9 strikes – 64.3 Strike%) with three whiffs (21.4 SwStr%).

Hierarchy Remains: Andrés Muñoz | Ryne Stanek | Gabe Speier

Tampa Bay Rays – Collecting his second win this spring, Pete Fairbanks fired a clean eighth, striking out one on 15 pitches (60 Strike%) with three whiffs (20 SwStr%). He’s made six appearances and posted a 0.88 WHIP with eight strikeouts versus two walks over 5.2 innings. Colin Poche only retired one batter and walked two in the seventh. Jason Adam worked a scoreless sixth, giving up a hit and striking out three.

Hierarchy Remains: Pete Fairbanks | Jason Adam | Colin Poche

Texas Rangers – Although José Leclerc warmed up for the save, the Rangers blew the game open with a six-run eighth, so Brock Burke closed out the nine-run win with a scoreless ninth, walking one and striking out one. Kirby Yates worked a scoreless eighth, yielding a hit for his first hold. David Robertson gave up a hit during a scoreless seventh while securing his first hold. Josh Sborz fired a clean sixth, striking out one for his first hold.

Adjusted Hierarchy: José Leclerc | Kirby Yates | Josh Sborz

National League Recaps (March 30)

Atlanta Braves – Forced into an impromptu bullpen game, Jesse Chavez logged three innings while collecting his first win, giving up two hits and an earned run while striking out one. Tyler Matzek worked 1.1 scoreless frames for his first hold, scattering two hits. Pierce Johnson tossed a scoreless sixth, yielding a hit and striking out one. Dylan Lee turned in two scoreless innings, walking one and striking out one. Raisel Iglesias made his season debut with a scoreless ninth, allowing a hit and striking out one on eight pitches (75 Strike%) with one whiff.

Hierarchy Remains: Raisel Iglesias | A.J. Minter | Pierce Johnson

Cincinnati Reds – Following up a rough spring, Alexis Díaz suffered his first loss and blown save, giving up two hits, three earned runs, and two walks while striking out one over one-third of the ninth versus the Nationals. He did not benefit from a couple of close calls, but traffic infused outings for closers rarely end well. He threw 20 pitches (45 Strike%) and produced one whiff. Brent Suter recorded the last two outs in the ninth, stranding two of three runners. In the eighth, Lucas Sims gave up two hits, including a solo home run, and struck out one during his first blown save. Fernando Cruz got credit for his first hold, allowing a hit and an earned run while striking out four over 1.1 innings. Justin Wilson tossed a scoreless combined inning, yielding a hit and striking out one.

Hierarchy Remains: Alexis Díaz | Lucas Sims | Emilio Pagán

Colorado Rockies – During a non-save outing, Justin Lawrence worked around a lead-off walk by inducing a ground ball double play and a game-ending fly out while facing Arizona’s 2-3-4 batters. He threw 15 pitches (8 strikes – 53.3 Strike%) without a whiff. Tyler Kinley tossed a scoreless eighth, giving up a hit and a walk while striking out one. Nick Mears retired all three batters faced in the seventh, stranding two runners and recording a strikeout for his first hold. Jalen Beeks issued two walks and recorded one out in a combined one-third of an inning for his first hold. Peter Lambert collected his first win, logging a scoreless combined innings, navigating around a hit and two walks. 

Hierarchy Remains: Justin Lawrence | Tyler Kinley | Nick Mears

Los Angeles Dodgers – Appearing on consecutive days, Evan Phillips retired his only batter faced via strikeout on five pitches (60 Strike%) with one whiff (20 SwStr%). Kyle Hurt suffered his first loss, giving up a hit and an unearned run while striking out three over 2.2 innings. Alex Vesia stranded a runner and walked one during his one-third of the seventh. Joe Kelly went nuclear allowing three hits, five runs (four earned), a hit batter, a balk, and a walk resulting in his first blown save. Daniel Hudson secured his first hold, firing a clean sixth, striking out one.

Hierarchy Remains: Evan Phillips | Joe Kelly | Daniel Hudson

New York Mets – Although trailing by two runs, the trumpets blared to signal the return of Edwin Díaz. He worked a scoreless ninth during his first major league outing since 2022, allowing a hit and striking out one. He threw 18 pitches (66.7 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (16.7 SwStr%). Adam Ottavino gave up three hits and an earned run while striking out two in the eighth. Jorge López stranded a runner while walking one and striking out one over two-thirds of the seventh. Yohan Ramírez recorded a strikeout before being ejected for throwing behind Rhys Hoskins. Jake Diekman fired a clean sixth, striking out one.

Hierarchy Remains: Edwin Díaz | Adam Ottavino | Brooks Raley

Pittsburgh Pirates – Finishing off a six-run win, David Bednar made his season debut with a clean bottom of the ninth, striking out one. He threw 14 pitches (9 strikes – 64.3 Strike%) and induced two whiffs (14.3 SwStr%):

Jose Hernandez retired the side in order in the eighth. Hunter Stratton gave up a hit and struck out one over two-thirds of the seventh. Ryan Borucki got credit for his first hold despite letting one of two inherited runners score, yielding a hit and striking out one over two-thirds combined innings.

Hierarchy Remains: David Bednar | Aroldis Chapman | Ryan Borucki

San Francisco Giants – Pressed into duty with the lead evaporating, Camilo Doval did not fare well, allowing two earned runs on a walk and a home run (Grant Pauley) while recording two outs, finishing off a 9-6 win in a non-save appearance. He threw 17 pitches (10 strikes – 58.8 Strike%) and induced three whiffs (17.6 SwStr%). He also frustrated his manager by getting two pitch clock violations, per Andrew Baggarly on “X”. Erik Miller gave up a hit, three earned runs, and three walks while striking out one in one-third of the ninth. Tyler Rogers notched his first hold, retiring his only batter-faced. Taylor Rogers logged 1.2 innings, giving up two hits and an earned run while striking out three.

Hierarchy Remains: Camilo Doval | Taylor Rogers | Tyler Rogers

St. Louis Cardinals – Running on fumes, Giovanny Gallegos bent but did not break, recording his first save while stranding the “place” runner despite giving up an infield hit and a walk with one strikeout, finishing off a one-run win. He threw 27 pitches (14 strikes – 51.9 Strike%) and generated five whiffs (18.5 SwStr%). Ryan Hesley was awarded his first win and his first blown save, allowing four hits and two earned runs while striking out two. He produced five whiffs (18.5 SwStr%) while throwing 27 pitches (66.7 Strike%). Andrew Kittredge notched his first hold firing a clean eighth, striking out one. JoJo Romero got credit for his first hold, yielding two hits and an earned run with two strikeouts. 

Hierarchy Remains: Ryan Helsley | Giovanny Gallegos | JoJo Romero

Washington Nationals – Capping his team’s ninth inning rally, Kyle Finnegan recorded his first save, walking one and striking out one in a scoreless ninth. He threw 16 pitches (75 Strike%) and induced two whiffs (12.5 SwStr%). Hunter Harvey collected his first win even though he allowed two hits, two earned runs, and a walk while striking out one in the bottom of the eighth. Jordan Weems fired a clean seventh, striking out one. Derek Law logged 1.2 scoreless frames, giving up a hit and striking out two.

Hierarchy Remains: Kyle Finnegan | Hunter Harvey | Matt Barnes

Closer Monkey’s filthy sequence of the day goes to Ian Hamilton, courtesy of the Pitching Ninja.

Sunday’s vulture save candidates:

  • Joel Payamps (MIL)
  • Chris Martin (BOS)
  • Aroldis Chapman (PIT)
  • Daniel Hudson (LAD)
  • Lucas Erceg (OAK)

Until next time, stay safe and be well.

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Mining saves from the wire, March 29

There’s a fine line between securing saves early in the season on the waiver wire and overreacting to small sample circumstances. Going through relievers available across three sites (CBS, ESPN, and Yahoo), our first waiver wire column will do its best to sort through the best available options. Please remember, your team build determines if any of these moves will be necessary, do not make changes on a whim, but based on necessity. **Availability percentages based on results at 10 a.m. EST, March 29**

CBS Most Added Relievers

  • Kevin Ginkel (ARI): Available in 52 percent of leagues
  • Griffin Jax (MIN): Available in 64 percent of leagues

One could catch lightning in a bottle by adding Ginkel, who will be a priority add for teams who lost Paul Sewald (oblique) until at least mid-May, perhaps into June. Jax will work in a match-up-based leverage ladder, but recorded his team’s first save of the season, which will increase his price point in leagues with free agency acquisition budgets (FAAB).

CBS Closers on the Wire

  • Carlos Estévez (LAA): Available in 34 percent of leagues
  • Kyle Finnegan (WSH): Available in 55 percent of leagues
  • Will Smith (KCR): Available in 60 percent of leagues

Those in deeper formats would love seeing saves on waivers, but these three have their warts. Still, those in need of early saves can weather the storm with one of these three options, listed in order of preference.

CBS Save Streamers

  • Jason Foley (DET): Available in 91 percent of leagues
  • Michael Kopech (CWS): Available in 66 percent of leagues
  • Yimi García (TOR): Available in 85 percent of leagues

Foley secured his team’s first save, but his manager hinted at lineup pockets being his guide in the leverage innings. One can add him with the understanding he’s in a potential save share, not the closer. Kopech falls under the same circumstance, but he pitched in the eighth inning with his team down by one. He could accrue save chances, but he’s in a much weaker leverage ladder on a bad team. Toronto prefers mixing and matching without Jordan Romano, who can be activated as soon as April 9, so tread lightly if adding García.

ESPN Five below 50 Worth Adding

  1. Robert Suarez (SDP): Available in 52 percent of leagues, he’s MLB’s leader in saves. There were concerns about him being the closer, so far, he’s dispelled them.
  2. Kevin Ginkel (ARI): Available in 87 percent of leagues. He will be his team’s closer for potentially the next two months. If he performs well, maybe more.
  3. Carlos Estévez (LAA): Available in 63 percent of leagues. Although he’s a ratio risk, another strong first half makes this an easy choice for saves, though the ghost of Robert Stephenson lingers.
  4. Griffin Jax (MIN): Available in 91 percent of leagues. More of a short-term option, though there’s no timeline for Jhoan Durán’s return, it’s projected for mid-May.
  5. Kyle Finnegan (WSH): Available in 73 percent of leagues, the streaky closer for the Nationals does not curry fantasy fervor, but he’s atop his team’s hierarchy.

One stash and One flier for ESPN Leagues

  • Hector Neris (CHC): Available in 84 percent of leagues, he was a target in the offseason and if Adbert Alzolay struggles early, Neris could emerge with the primary save share.
  • Jason Foley (DET): Available in 91 percent of leagues, he was not on fantasy radars for saves until he closed out a one-run, shutout win over the White Sox. Add for ancillary saves, and profit if he earns a larger share.

Yahoo Adds, Tier One

  • Kevin Ginkel (ARI): Available in 39 percent of leagues
  • Carlos Estévez (LAA): Available in 31 percent of leagues
  • Kyle Finnegan (WSH): Available in 41 percent of leagues
  • Griffin Jax (MIN): Available in 31 percent of leagues

Yahoo Adds, Tier Two (Ancillary Save Options)

  • Aroldis Chapman (PIT): Available in 64 percent of leagues
  • Jason Foley (DET): Available in 84 percent of leagues
  • Abner Uribe (MIL): Available in 74 percent of leagues
  • Joel Payamps (MIL): Available in 48 percent of leagues
  • Yimi García (TOR): Available in 75 percent of leagues

Yahoo Relievers to Stash

  • Hector Neris (CHC): Available in 58 percent of leagues
  • James McArthur (KCR): Available in 82 percent of leagues

Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community. Stay safe and be well.

Statistical Credits:

Yahoo Most Added RPs

CBS Most Added RPs

ESPN RP Roster Percentages on Fantasy Pros

Monkey Bytes, March 28: Burning question(s) for all 30 teams

It’s the calm before the storm, with Opening Day upon us. Every team starts this season with hopes and aspirations, along with the fantasy community. Because there are no results worth sharing, going through each team’s high-leverage questions before games count makes sense. These will be split by league. Enjoy.

American League

Baltimore Orioles

With Félix Bautista out for the season, can the revamped leverage ladder preserve leads for Craig Kimbrel?

The good news, Dillon Tate and Danny Coulombe turned in strong spring outings. The bad news, Cionel Pérez, and Jacob Webb did not. A key for the bullpen will be Yennier Cano not suffering a sophomore slump.

Boston Red Sox

Can Kenley Jansen stay healthy and boost his cutter velocity once games count? Who will he be traded to?

Most forget Jansen converted 29 of 33 save chances last year, though this snapped his streak of recording at least 30 saves over a full 162-game season since 2014. He and Chris Martin will be unrestricted free agents at the end of the year, so it’s a matter of when, not if each gets moved ahead of the trade deadline. This brings up the last question, will Liam Hendriks secure a save in 2024?

Chicago White Sox

Who receives the first save chance? Can a reliever emerge with the primary save share?

No matter who the fantasy community prefers gets save chances, it’s the manager’s decision. After showing strong results in spring appearances as a reliever, will Pedro Grifol deploy Michael Kopech as his closer?

Cleveland Guardians

Will Emmanuel Clase post a third straight year with at least 40 saves?

His 110 saves since the start of 2021 ranks first among all relievers. Yes, he suffered 12 blown saves last year. Can his slider perform more like 2022 (27.5 swinging strike percentage) versus last year’s results (16.4 percent swinging strike rate)? If yes, he’s as stable as they come for saves.

Detroit Tigers

Will Alex Lange throw enough first-pitch strikes and rein in his command unlocking a career year? Or, will he lose his grip on the preferred save share in his hierarchy?

Lange finished spring with an encouraging 62.5 strike percentage, which would represent a career-best in the category. It’s a very limited sample, but a point of emphasis in his off-season training. He’s a different pitcher when ahead in counts, which unlocks the door to his devastating change-up (18.7 percent swinging strike rate) and curve (23.4 swinging strike percentage). If he struggles, Jason Foley or Shelby Miller could move atop the bullpen hierarchy, but time will tell if it’s necessary.

Houston Astros

Beat writers for the Astros call Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly, and Bryan Abreu a dominant triumvirate, can they overcome a weak leverage bridge or will they wear down as the season ensues?

It’s been encouraging seeing Hader throw more sliders, which could increase his strikeout rate this season. However, Abreu finished the spring with a bloated 2.63 WHIP and seven strikeouts versus six walks over 5.1 innings. He’s also sitting a m.p.h. below his normal average fastball velocity. If he’s pitching through an injury or the struggles linger into the season, this already shaky leverage ladder gets even shakier.

Kansas City Royals

How long does Will Smith remain atop the hierarchy?

Adding veteran southpaw, and three-time World Champion Smith on the roster provides veteran leadership in the bullpen. But he struggled in the second half and was not a factor during his team’s postseason run. It feels like he’s a stopgap in the ninth, not a solution. This situation feels like the Cubs last year, meaning it may only be a matter of time until James McArthur takes over as the closer by June. Time will tell.

Los Angeles Angels

When does Robert Stephenson make his debut? Can Carlos Estévez remain atop the hierarchy until the trade deadline?

Riding the wave of a dominant second half with the Rays last year, Stephenson signed a three-year deal with the Angels as the closer of the future. He did not appear in a spring contest while dealing with shoulder discomfort in camp. He’s throwing on the side, but there’s no timeline for his team debut. Estévez was dominant in the first half last year, then regression fueled by fatigue harpooned his results after the All-Star break. He begins the year as the closer, but was two-to-four m.p.h. down with his fastball velocity this spring. Stay tuned.

Minnesota Twins

Who gets the first save chance this year? Will Griffin Jax be the team’s most valuable reliever this year?

Acknowledging most spring numbers may not matter, one cannot overlook Jax’s robust 12:0 K:BB through 7.2 scoreless frames with a 0.39 WHIP and a 30.2 swinging strike percentage. He may not be the interim closer and operate as the HLR, but his potential breakout season will help keep Jhoan Durán healthy when he returns and his role as the closer. Brock Stewart remains on the radar in deeper formats since he may accrue ancillary saves with Durán on the injured list.

New York Yankees

Which reliever replaces Michael King and who becomes the primary set-up reliever for Clay Holmes?

Early in the spring, it seemed like Ian Hamilton would be the natural replacement for King in this leverage ladder. He can log multiple-inning outings with strikeout upside or take on an opponent’s toughest lineup pocket before the ninth. However, with Tommy Kahnle on the injured list, Hamilton may be the eighth-inning cog and not cede the role. It’s also been reported Jonathan Loásiga will man a multi-inning relief role, then receive two days off before his next outing. If things go sideways, Holmes, Kahnle, and Loáisiga will be free agents at the end of the season. This ride may get bumpy, especially if the starting pitchers do not work deep into games with Gerrit Cole sidelined.

Oakland A’s

Will Mark Kotsay use Mason Miller as the closer?

This one’s a slam-dunk question since it determines the fantasy ceiling for the most talented pitcher on this team’s roster. Multiple beat writers have insinuated this will be his role, but until he receives early save chances, it causes apprehension for fantasy players. However, Miller posted a 14:2 K:BB (40 K-BB percentage) with a 57.1 ground-ball percentage, and 25.8 swinging strike percentage this spring. Facing major league lineups will be tougher, but his stuff should play as a high-leverage reliever. Health remains his final hurdle to clear.

Seattle Mariners

Can the Opening Day relievers be effective until Matt Brash and Gregory Santos return?

One of the most popular speculative relievers was Brash in the preseason, but his helium was tempered by an elbow issue. He’s at least three weeks away from appearing with the Mariners, and Santos may not be ready until mid-May. In the interim, the team needs strong performances from Ryne Stanek, Gabe Speier, Trent Thornton, Tayler Saucedo, and Austin Voth. Feeling lucky or will Andrés Muñoz be sleepless in Seattle?

Tampa Bay Rays

Will Pete Fairbanks follow up last year’s career bests with more innings and saves this year?

In 2023, Fairbanks set career highs in appearances (49), innings (45.1), strikeouts (68), and saves (25). His breakout dispelled the myth about the team using multiple relievers for saves rather than a primary save share. Will he remain healthy in 2024?

Texas Rangers

Does José Leclerc remain the closer for the entirety of 2024? Will Texas produce a better save percentage this season?

For Leclerc, it’s all about velocity and command. Throwing strikes unleashes his slider for strikeouts. Working behind in counts results in traffic, which represents tightrope walks during high-leverage events. Despite winning the World Series, this bullpen only converted 47.6 percent of its save chances. Less than optimal.

Toronto Blue Jays

Who gets the first save this season? When will Jordan Romano (elbow) and Erik Swanson (forearm) return?

Late injury news during spring training creates anxiety for fantasy players. Although the team maintains the MRIs for its top leverage options were clean, both will open the season on the injured list. Yimi García and Chad Green project as the most likely options for saves in their stead. But, this will be a different leverage ladder with Wes Parsons and Nate Pearson active instead of Romano and Swanson.

National League

Arizona Diamondbacks

Will this bullpen withstand the loss of Paul Sewald (oblique) early on?

Even though manager Torey Lovullo refused to name a replacement for Sewald, fantasy players will focus on Kevin Ginkel. He recorded six wins, two saves, a 0.96 WHIP, and 36 strikeouts over his last 27.2 innings last year. He’s capable of filling in for Sewald, but getting him the ball in the ninth may be a challenge at times unless Ryne Nelson, Scott McGough, and Miguel Castro step up.

Atlanta Braves

Does Raisel Iglesias remain healthy all season?

Despite missing time last year with a shoulder injury, Iglesias notched 33 saves in only 58 appearances. During his time in Atlanta, he owns a 98:20 K:BB (23.6 K-BB percentage), a 1.07 WHIP, and secured 34 saves across 82 innings.

Chicago Cubs

How well does Adbert Alzolay do in his second season atop the hierarchy?

It was a tale of two halves for Alzolay during his first full season as a reliever. In the first half, he posted a 24.8 K-BB percentage, a 2.80 SIERA, and a 0.92 WHIP. After the All-Star break, his K-BB percentage slipped to 16.3 percent with a 3.82 SIERA, and 1.18 WHIP. He also missed time with forearm tightness in September. His injury issues from the past should be ignored, but he’s still the best option for saves in this leverage ladder.

Cincinnati Reds

Will the real Alexis Díaz please stand up, please stand up?

Through September 15 last year, he owned a 2.10 ERA with 36 saves after 66 appearances. After this, his results cratered though fatigue was a contributing factor. But, his K-BB percentage declined by the month down the stretch. He also turned in a rough spring, so he enters the season under the microscope of many fantasy players.

Colorado Rockies

Who leads this team in saves at the end of the year?

After a spring competition for the closer role, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post wrote the team has “penciled” in Justin Lawrence as the primary save share but speculated Tyler Kinley could also factor in early save chances. Meanwhile, Daniel Bard continues his rehab for a return in May. This role may change hands multiple times this year.

Los Angeles Dodgers

How do the veterans hold up under the pitch clock rules in 2024?

Since most relievers adapted to the rules changes enacted last year, Blake Treinen and Daniel Hudson did not, missing the majority of 2023. They will be factors in this leverage ladder but may wear down or require injured list stints throughout the season. Brusdar Graterol opens the year on it with shoulder and hip soreness. If this unit loses veteran relievers, the team will be very active ahead of the trade deadline. Thankfully, Evan Phillips remains one of the most under appreciated relievers in baseball. For a second straight season he logged at least 60 appearances, produced 60 strikeouts over 60-plus innings, and owned a WHIP below one. He’s the only qualified reliever to do this over the last two years.

Miami Marlins

Can Tanner Scott carry over his command gains? Will he be traded ahead of the deadline? If yes, who replaces him as the primary save share?

Scott became the second reliever in team history with at least 100 strikeouts last year and tied for the most multiple-strikeout outings in the National League with 32. From August first-on, owned a 5-1 record while converting 10 of 12 save opportunities with a 33:3 K:BB (29.7 K-BB percentage) over 27.1 innings, a 0.70 WHIP, 0.99 ERA, 2.16 SIERA, 72 Strike percentage, and 18.2 swinging strike rate. After a rough spring, can he maintain some of these gains? He’s an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season, so which reliever(s) pitch well this year could be replacements in waiting for saves in August. Stay tuned.

Milwaukee Brewers

Who gets the first save chance? The second? The third?

See a theme here? What seemed like one of the easiest leverage ladders to predict became one of the toughest when Devin Williams was diagnosed with three stress fractures in his back. Add in a new manager who suggested a match-up-based approach in the high-leverage innings and it’s chaos for fantasy players. Now we await if it’s Joel Payamps, Abner Uribe, or Trevor Megill receiving the save chances, but it could be all three.

New York Mets

Will the trumpets returning be enough for this leverage ladder?

Displaying no signs of rust after missing 2023, Edwin Díaz will be the team’s closer and remains one of the best at his craft. However, his leverage bridge may be shaky at times, and this will affect his save total if they do not pitch well.

Philadelphia Phillies

Does any reliever represent the primary save share or will the “floating closer” concept remain in effect?

This topic was covered in detail in yesterday’s committee post, so it will not be repeated. Some asked about Orion Kerkering as well. He will be a leverage factor but will open the year on the injured list after missing most of training camp because of illness. Which sets his clock back for earning a larger role in this bullpen.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Is David Bednar ready for Opening Day? Should the velocity readings by Aroldis Chapman in his last spring outing be a concern? Who sets up for these two?

Will two spring outings be enough for Bednar? His velocity was on track, but his command was a bit spotty. Chapman was four m.p.h. his normal velocity against the Yankees, hopefully, this will be a blip. The biggest worry remains the bridge relievers getting the team to save chances.

San Diego Padres

Will “Big Game” Bobby remain healthy? How will Yuki hold up?

With two games under their belt, and Robert Suarez already tied for the major league lead in saves, he’s missed time in each of the two previous seasons, will he be available all year? Yuki Matsui has impressed, but can he handle the demands of an MLB season and the travel? Most players from the NPB wear down during their transitional season.

San Francisco Giants

Does Camilo Doval find trust in his slider again?

Doval went through a rough patch last August, blowing four straight save chances. During this time, he almost stopped throwing his slider, which did not resurface until Gabe Kapler was fired. Perhaps a new voice at the helm, and being on the precipice of his Age-26 season fuels growth in his strikeout percentage.

St. Louis Cardinals

Can Ryan Helsley make it through a full season? Will his velocity spike during a regular season outing?

Usually fantasy players worry about the usage patterns for Helsely by his manager, but ahead of Opening Day, it’s more about his velocities this spring:

In an interview, the reliever said working with lower velocity was by design with eyes on remaining healthy throughout 2024. We will find out soon.

Washington Nationals

Will Kyle Finnegan fend off Hunter Harvey and remain the primary save share in 2024?

Finnegan opened 2023 as the closer, lost his grip on the role, regained it after the All-Star break, and never looked back while recording a career-best 28 saves. Despite this, many prefer Harvey as the closer of the future for this franchise. This may be an inevitability, but once the lights go on, it’s still Finnegan atop the hierarchy, for now.

Thanks for stopping by Closer Monkey on Opening Day. Until next time, stay safe and be well.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

Baseball-Reference.com

BrooksBaseball.net

Monkey Bytes, March 26: Paul Sewald suffers an oblique strain, Twins leverage plan, Toronto injury update, Game Recaps, and more

Arizona Diamondbacks – Not the news anyone wants to see, Paul Sewald suffered a Grade 2 left oblique strain and will open the year on the injured list per Nick Piecoro in this tweet on “X”. In a follow-up note, manager Torey Lovullo did not want to name an interim closer, but Piecoro intimated Ginkel should receive the first save opportunity of the season, which we agree with. Last year, he went 9-1 while converting four of six save chances and recorded eight holds. Through 60 appearances, he logged 65.1 innings with a 70:23 K:BB (18.5 K-BB%), 0.98 WHIP, and a 12.9 swinging strike percentage. Over his last 27 outings, he won six of seven decisions with 36 strikeouts over 27.2 innings. Here’s hoping he carries over last year’s gains into the start of the season. 

Projected Hierarchy: Kevin Ginkel | Ryan Thompson | Scott McGough

Minnesota Twins – In a column highlighting how Griffin Jax has improved his arsenal, Do-Hyoung Kim of MLB.com also shared Rocco Baldelli’s leverage plans with Jhoan Durán sidelined at the onset of the season. Jax will be a high-leverage option, but will share save chances with Brock Stewart, which forces an adjustment of our projected hierarchy. Plan on Jax being the HLR (highest-leveraged reliever), facing the toughest lineup pocket in the eighth or ninth inning, no exclusively deployed in the ninth. If this happens, Stewart would receive the save chance. Plan accordingly. 

Adjusted Hierarchy: *Griffin Jax | *Brock Stewart | Steven Okert

Toronto Blue Jays – Although there’s no confirmation in this tweet by Shi Davidi on “X”, manager John Scheider acknowledges “it’s reasonable to say Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson will begin the season on the IL”. Hopefully, more news emerges, but if they do not throw bullpens until next week, it’s time the hierarchy shifts ahead of Opening Day. 

Projected Hierarchy: *Yimi García | *Chad Green | Génesis Cabrera

Colorado Rockies – In Patrick Saunders’ bullpen preview for the Denver Post, he wrote Justin Lawrence is “penciled” in as the closer with Tyler Kinley projected as the primary set-up reliever in the eighth inning role. It’s been a camp competition for the ninth inning, but as it stands, plan on this adjustment in the leverage ladder unless Bud Black suggests otherwise. 

Adjusted Hierarchy: Justin Lawrence | Tyler Kinley | Jake Bird

Chicago White Sox – Remaining guarded in his comments about having a closer, Pedro Grifol says the team will enter the year without one being named in this tweet shared by Scott Merkin of MLB.com. In Grifol’s words, “We’re attacking leverage. Somebody takes it on, somebody takes it on.”. During the team’s scrimmage with its Triple-A affiliate, Michael Kopech pitched for Charlotte, retiring his teammates in order, including a strikeout of Gavin Sheets. Unofficially, he finishes the spring with four scoreless appearances as a reliever with a 0.25 WHIP and 4:1 K:BB. Hopefully he get a chance to take the closer role on soon. 

Projected Hierarchy: *Michael Kopech | *John Brebbia | Jordan Leasure

Quick Hits (Game Recaps from March 25)

Atlanta Braves -With the regular season drawing nearer, Raisel Iglesias fired a much-needed clean outing, striking out one in the sixth. He finishes spring with a 1.83 WHIP while racking up 13 strikeouts versus four walks over 7.2 innings. As a veteran, getting through the spring healthy represents a win.

Houston Astros – Playing it’s Triple-A affiliate in an exhibition, Ryan Pressly suffered a blown save, giving up two hits, an earned run, and a walk while striking out one. Josh Hader fired a clean sixth, striking out the side. He threw 16 pitches (11 strikes – 68.8 Strike%) and induced three whiffs (18.8 SwStr%). This does not count toward his spring totals, but he recorded a 1.24 WHIP with five strikeouts over 5.2 innings through six outings. Biggest thing from this outing, his slider usage, courtesy of Statcast:

Last year, Hader used his sinker over seventy percent of the time with San Diego last year, this could increase his strikeout percentage in 2024.

New York Yankees – Entering in the sixth inning on Monday, Clay Holmes secured his fourth hold with a scoreless outing, giving up a hit and striking out one. He threw 17 pitches (11 strikes – 64.7 Strike%) with two whiffs (11.8 SwStr%). Through seven outings, he’s posted a 1.41 WHIP with seven strikeouts against one walk.

Oakland A’s – Dominating Giants hitters, Mason Miller fired a clean top of the ninth, striking out the side on 13 pitches (69.2 Strike%) while producing six whiffs (46.2 SwStr%). Five of his pitches exceeded 100 m.p.h. and he finished spring with a 0.91 WHIP with 14 strikeouts over 7.2 innings. Lucas Erceg navigated around two hits and a walk while striking out one for a scoreless eighth. Dany Jiménez retired the side in order in the seventh, as did Zach Jackson in the sixth.

San Diego Padres – Turning in a labored tune-up, Robert Suarez allowed a hit, an earned run, and a walk while striking out two in the top of the ninth versus Seattle. He threw 24 pitches (50 Strike%) inducing three whiffs (12.5 SwStr%). Yuki Matsui tossed a scoreless eighth, yielding a hit and striking out three on 16 pitches (75 Strike%) with four whiffs (25 SwStr%). Jhony Brito fired a clean seventh, striking out two.

Seattle Mariners – In his final spring tuneup, Andrés Muñoz turned in a scoreless sixth, allowing a two-out single by Ha-Seong Kim. Muñoz threw 12 pitches (66.7 Strike%) with one whiff. He’s made seven appearances and posted a 1.05 WHIP with six strikeouts versus zero walks through 6.2 innings. Ryan Divish also provided two injury updates. First, Matt Brash threw 20 pitches and will throw again in a few days during his build-up phase per this tweet. Gregory Santos will undergo an MRI on March, and if it’s clean, he will resume his throwing program. 

Tampa Bay Rays – Collecting his second win this spring, Pete Fairbanks fired a clean eighth, striking out one on 15 pitches (60 Strike%) with three whiffs (20 SwStr%). He’s made six appearances and posted a 0.88 WHIP with eight strikeouts versus two walks over 5.2 innings. Colin Poche only retired one batter and walked two in the seventh. Jason Adam worked a scoreless sixth, giving up a hit and striking out three.

Closer Monkey’s filthy pitch of the day goes to Brent Honeywell‘s screwball, note his catcher’s reaction, courtesy of the Pitching Ninja.

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Until next time, stay safe and be well. We appreciate you stopping by.

Top 60 Relievers for SOLDS, March 22 (Jewett)

Leagues that use SOLDS (saves plus holds) allow fantasy players a little more leeway while building a roster. One can target the best relievers on teams with high win totals, not necessarily targeting “closers“, which creates unique values, especially for relievers with strong K-BB percentages and strong ratios. Fusing blended projections from Fangraphs with my own SOLDS projections, here’s a top 60 for the upcoming draft weekend. For those interested, the projections can be viewed on this SPREADSHEET.

SOLDS Top 60 Relievers

  1. Emmanuel Clase, Cleveland Guardians
  2. Camilo Doval, San Francisco Giants
  3. Edwin Díaz, New York Mets
  4. Andrés Muñoz, Seattle Mariners
  5. Raisel Iglesias, Atlanta Braves
  6. Josh Hader, Houston Astros
  7. Pete Fairbanks, Tampa Bay Rays
  8. Evan Phillips, Los Angeles Dodgers
  9. David Bednar, Pittsburgh Pirates
  10. Ryan Helsley, St. Louis Cardinals
  11. Craig Kimbrel, Baltimore Orioles
  12. Paul Sewald, Arizona Diamondbacks
  13. Jordan Romano, Toronto Blue Jays
  14. Alexis Díaz, Cincinnati Reds
  15. Clay Holmes, New York Yankees
  16. Tanner Scott, Miami Marlins
  17. Jhoan Durán, Minnesota Twins
  18. Adbert Alzolay, Chicago Cubs
  19. Robert Suarez, San Diego Padres
  20. Kenley Jansen, Boston Red Sox
  21. Carlos Estévez, Los Angeles Angels
  22. Hunter Harvey, Washington Nationals
  23. Devin Williams, Milwaukee Brewers
  24. Mason Miller, Oakland Athletics
  25. José Alvarado, Philadelphia Phillies
  26. José Leclerc, Texas Rangers
  27. Alex Lange, Detroit Tigers
  28. Aroldis Chapman, Pittsburgh Pirates
  29. Kyle Finnegan, Washington Nationals
  30. Michael Kopech, Chicago White Sox
  31. A.J. Minter, Atlanta Braves
  32. Ryan Pressly, Houston Astros
  33. Jason Adam, Tampa Bay Rays
  34. Robert Stephenson, Los Angeles Angels
  35. Will Smith, Kansas City Royals
  36. Yuki Matsui, San Diego Padres
  37. Griffin Jax, Minnesota Twins
  38. Bryan Abreu, Houston Astros
  39. Yennier Cano, Baltimore Orioles
  40. Joel Payamps, Milwaukee Brewers
  41. Seranthony Domínguez, Philadelphia Phillies
  42. Josh Sborz, Texas Rangers
  43. Chris Martin, Boston Red Sox
  44. Kevin Ginkel, Arizona Diamondbacks
  45. Scott Barlow, Cleveland Guardians
  46. Tyler Kinley, Colorado Rockies
  47. Giovanny Gallegos, St. Louis Cardinals
  48. Julian Merryweather, Chicago Cubs
  49. Yimi García, Toronto Blue Jays
  50. Abner Uribe, Milwaukee Brewers
  51. James McArthur, Kansas City Royals
  52. Pierce Johnson, Atlanta Braves
  53. Ian Hamilton, New York Yankees
  54. Shelby Miller, Detroit Tigers
  55. Jason Foley, Detroit Tigers
  56. Jeff Hoffman, Philadelphia Phillies
  57. Justin Lawrence, Colorado Rockies
  58. Hector Neris, Chicago Cubs
  59. Taylor Rogers, San Francisco Giants
  60. Trevor Megill, Milwaukee Brewers

Looking back, here are the SOLDS leaders in 2023

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/lpxoS/27/

For a look at team results by league, here are the high-leverage results in the American League

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/DkjKo/22/

And, the team results for the National League in 2023

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/mMTVE/19/

Best of luck in your upcoming drafts, it’s the best time of the year.

Stay safe and be well.

Statistical Credits

  • Fangraphs.com
  • Baseball-Reference.com