2017 NL East Preview

March 1, 2017

Atlanta Braves — After a comically horrific start to the 2015 season, Jim Johnson returned to the Braves, where he’s quietly spent the past season and a half regaining his form. His strikeout rate climbed back over the magical one-per-inning mark in 2016, and he ended the year with 20 saves after Arodys Vizcaino went down with an injury. That performance has earned J.J. first dibs on closing this season, as Braves skipper Brian Snitker recently said he didn’t know why Johnson wouldn’t close to start the season. Vizcaino and fireballer Mauricio Cabrera could push him, so he’s not in the most secure of spots, but you could do worse.

Starting 2017 hierarchy: Johnson | Vizcaino | Cabrera.
Holds candidates: Vizcaino, Cabrera, Ian Krol.

Miami Marlins — The Marlins bulked up their bullpen in the offseason, adding a few relievers with closing experience in Brad Ziegler and Junichi Tazawa. Ziegler, who was given a 2-year, $16 million contract, will likely set up for closer A.J. Ramos, while Tazawa will compete for holds alongside last year’s holdovers, David Phelps and Kyle Barraclough.

Starting 2017 hierarchy: Ramos | Ziegler | Phelps.
Holds candidates: Ziegler, Phelps, Barraclough, Tazawa.

New York Mets — The Mets are preparing to start the season without Jeurys Familia, who is awaiting a likely suspension from MLB due to a domestic violence incident in the offseason. (Charges were dropped, but Jose Reyes got a 51-game suspension from MLB despite charges being dropped in his case.) Addison Reed will close in Familia’s absence, with Fernando Salas picking up the eighth inning. Our guess is that Familia misses about 30 games, but until MLB makes an official decision, we’ll leave him at the top of the hierarchy.

Starting 2017 hierarchy: Familia | Reed | Salas.
Holds candidates: Salas, Hansel Robles, Jerry Blevins.

Philadelphia Phillies — Jeanmar Gomez wouldn’t be our choice to close in Philadelphia, but he’ll start the season as the ninth inning guy in Pete Mackanin’s bullpen. There’s a chance he’ll be fine, of course — he saved 37 games last year and was quite good for much of the season despite paltry strikeout totals. But he faltered down the stretch, and then the Phillies couldn’t find a taker for him in the offseason, and there’s probably a good reason for that. We expect Hector Neris, who struck out 102 batters last year and spent the winter adding a third pitch, or maybe even the recently-signed Joaquin Benoit, to take the job at some point during the year.

Starting 2017 hierarchy: Gomez | Neris | Benoit.
Holds candidates: Neris, Benoit, Edubray Ramos, Pat Neshek.

Washington Nationals — The Nationals head into 2017 with World Series hopes, but no proven closer in the back of their bullpen. Dusty Baker doesn’t seem too worried about it, with early indications pointing towards Shawn Kelley and Blake Treinen as the most likely candidates. A late-spring trade remains a possibility for the reigning NL East champions, and another outside possibility is Joe Nathan, who has Baker intrigued despite averaging only 91 mph on his fastball last year. The 42-year-old will have to make the roster first, though. For now, we’ll give Kelley the slight edge.

Starting 2017 hierarchy: *Kelley | Treinen | Nathan.
* = closer-by-committee
Holds candidates: Nathan, Koda Glover, Sammy Solis, Oliver Perez.

Jeanmar Gomez and the Phillies’ ninth are going to see other people

September 24, 2016

Philadelphia Phillies — The Phillies made the confusing announcement that although Jeanmar Gomez will be the closer for the rest of the season, he will get a “break” for the next few save chances — in favor of Hector Neris, Edubray Ramos, or even lefthander Joely Rodriguez. For now, we’ll call this a committee with Gomez as the head, but Neris is a strong candidate for what few saves remain for Philadelphia.

Updated hierarchy: *Gomez | Neris | Ramos.
* = closer-by-committee

Houston Astros — Ken Giles had a disastrous outing, blowing a save and dealing a blow to the Astros playoff hopes in the process. He entered with a two-run lead, but gave up a tying home run before loading the bases and getting yanked. After Michael Feliz gave up a three-run double, Giles was charged with six earned runs and the loss. Giles will hold onto his job, but with the Astros needing every win they can get, his leash will be shorter going forward.

Hierarchy remains: Giles | Gregerson | Harris.

Chicago Cubs — Pedro Strop was activated from the DL on Friday, and pitched a scoreless eighth with the Cubs up five. Joe Maddon indicated that he wants Strop, Rondon, and Chapman to man the late innings heading into the playoffs and, given his solid work last night, Strop will immediately crack the Cubs hierarchy.

Updated hierarchy: Chapman | Rondon | Strop.

Boston Red Sox — Brad Ziegler got a save opportunity for the surging Red Sox yesterday with both Craig Kimbrel and Koji Uehara unavailable. Uehara has not given up a run since returning from the DL, but hasn’t pitched on back-to-back days over that time either. With the Red Sox solidifying a playoff spot, we don’t expect to see anyone overworked in the season’s last week, so Ziegler may get another sneaky save opp.

Hierarchy remains: Kimbrel | Uehara | Ziegler. 

New York Mets — Hansel Robles came in with two on and one out in the seventh, up two runs. He induced a double play, the Mets scored three more runs, and Robles finished out the last two innings to earn his first career save.

Hierarchy remains: Familia | Reed | Salas.

Washington Nationals — Koda Glover has struggled over the last two weeks, posting a 10.13 ERA and 1.88 WHIP. Meanwhile, Blake Treinen has put up 12 straight scoreless outings (six holds, one blown save) since his five-run debacle on August 24.

Updated hierarchy: Melancon | Kelley | Treinen.

Milwaukee Brewers — After struggling for two weeks, Corey Knebel has six straight scoreless appearances, including two consecutive eighth-inning holds.

Updated hierarchy: Thornburg | Knebel | Torres.

Atlanta Braves — Mauricio Cabrera got another save yesterday with Jim Johnson taking a second day off after pitching in three straight. Cabrera has been excellent in the save opportunities he has seen, but Brian Snitker has stuck with the veteran Johnson, who should be available to close today.

Hierarchy remains: Johnson | Cabrera | Simmons.

Pittsburgh Pirates — The Pirates used newly-acquired lefty Phil Coke in the seventh inning of a one-run game yesterday. The 34-year-old journeyman was acquired for cash considerations on Thursday, and this was his first action since the deal. Coke won’t crack Pittsurgh’s hierarchy, but could be a sneaky add for the playoffs in holds leagues, as he will probably be used both as a LOOGY, and to spell Felipe Rivero with the Pirates nearly out of contention.

Hierarchy remains: Watson | Rivero | Bastardo.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Hector Neris, Philadelphia Phillies — Jeanmar Gomez is getting a break from closing.
2. Luke Gregerson, Houston Astros — Ken Giles threw 30 pitches in Friday night’s meltdown.
3. Shawn Kelley, Washington Nationals — Mark Melancon has pitched in two of three (44 pitches).

Hunter Strickland could stabilize volatile Giants bullpen

September 12, 2016

Miami Marlins – It was only a one-out save, but A.J. Ramos showed he was up to the task despite his troublesome finger. He remains the most likely choice for saves for the Marlins down the stretch.

Hierarchy remains: *Ramos | Rodney | Barraclough.
* = closer-by-committee

San Francisco Giants – The San Francisco closer roulette wheel on Sunday landed on Hunter Strickland, who pitched the final 1.1 innings for his third save of the season. Sergio Romo and Will Smith bridged the gap to Strickland, though Romo had a forgettable outing, allowing a home run and a hit while only retiring one man. All things considered, this pushes Strickland to the top of the Giants closer committee. If he’s given (and converts) the next opportunity, he could seize hold of the job.

Updated hierarchy: *Strickland | Romo | Nathan.
* = closer-by-committee

Colorado Rockies – Jake McGee got the 9th inning of a tie game on Sunday, and pitched a scoreless inning with two strikeouts. He’s now logged seven straight scoreless appearances and has fought his way back on to the Rockies hierarchy.

Updated hierarchy: Ottavino | Logan | McGee.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Shawn Kelley, Washington Nationals – Mark Melancon has pitched in three straight.
2. Kelvin Herrera, Kansas City Royals – The Royals may take it easy on Wade Davis today, who has pitched in two straight and thrown over 20 pitches in each appearance.

Fernando Salas trade opens Angels’ ninth for Ramirez or Guerra

September 1, 2016

Los Angeles Angels — With the waiver deadline deal of Fernando Salas to the Mets, we expect a combination of J.C. Ramirez and Deolis Guerra (traded from the Mets eight years ago for Johan Santana) to handle the L.A. closing duties going forward. Whichever guy gets the job full-time will be the Angels’ fifth closer of the season.

Updated hierarchy: *Ramirez | Guerra | Morin.
* = closer-by-committee

Washington Nationals — After five appearances in six days, the Nationals finally gave Mark Melancon a breather. Lefthander Marc “Scrabble” Rzepczynski started the ninth inning against a switch hitter and a lefty, leaving just the final out for Shawn Kelley. Since arriving in a trade from Oakland late last week, Rzepczynski has seen immediate use in the late innings, including eighth-inning holds on Monday and Wednesday. Dusty Baker has a history of trusting lefthanded relievers (Sean Marshall, Aroldis Chapman, Felipe Rivero), and it looks like Scrabble could be his latest.

Updated hierarchy: Melancon | Kelley | Rzepczynski.

New York Mets — We give the newly acquired Fernando Salas a slight edge over Jim Henderson, given Salas’s good performance since the All-Star break.

Updated hierarchy: Familia | Reed | Salas.

Texas Rangers — Jeremy Jeffress apologized and entered rehab on Wednesday, avoiding any suspension by MLB. He’s expected to be in treatment for about a month, leaving open the possibility that he could rejoin the Rangers for the postseason.

Hierarchy remains: Dyson | Diekman | Bush.

Cleveland Indians — You can earn a save by retiring one man with a five-run lead, just as long as you enter the game with the bases loaded. That’s how Bryan Shaw got his first save of the season last night.

Hierarchy remains: *Allen | Miller | Shaw.
* = closer-by-committee

Boston Red Sox — Jonathan Papelbon evidently won’t be pitching for Boston or anyone else this season; his indecision stretched beyond the deadline for postseason eligibility. The Sox need some kind of bullpen help. Wednesday night, Fernando Abad and Junichi Tazawa combined to blow a lead before the offense bailed the team out again.

Hierarchy remains: Kimbrel | Ziegler | Buchholz.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. C.J. Edwards, Chicago Cubs — Aroldis Chapman has pitched in three straight games, including a 31-pitch outing on Wednesday.
2. Addison Reed, New York Mets — Jeurys Familia has also gone in three straight.

Nate Jones leads the league in blown saves

August 30, 2016

St. Louis Cardinals — Alex Reyes’s return to the rotation over the weekend has left a hole in the seventh inning for the Cardinals. Matt Bowman has been filling in there, but when he and Kevin Siegrist gave up a combined four runs last night, it was the recently promoted Miguel Socolovich who stopped the bleeding and set St. Louis up for a comeback win. It was an impressive outing for Socolovich, but not enough to crack the hierarchy yet.

Updated hierarchy: Oh | Siegrist | Bowman.

Chicago White Sox — The major league leader in blown saves is Nate Jones, who suffered his ninth on Monday night. It’s mostly been a matter of bad timing, however; his 0.93 WHIP and 3.25 FIP don’t point to any significant problems.

Hierarchy remains: Robertson | Jones | Jennings.

Toronto Blue Jays — Joe Biagini picked up a clean eighth-inning hold last night, his fifth of the season to go with a 2.28 ERA. Biagini still seems to be fourth in the Toronto bullpen, but we’ll be keeping an eye on the big righty down the stretch.

Hierarchy remains: Osuna | Grilli | Benoit.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
1. Andrew Miller, Cleveland Indians — Cody Allen threw 37 pitches to get five outs on Monday.
2. Antonio Bastardo, Pittsburgh Pirates — The Pirates bullpen is running on fumes at this point. Tony Watson and Felipe Rivero have pitched on five of the last six days, and Neftali Feliz has gone on four of five (including a 29-pitch outing last night). Who’s left? We’re crazy enough to think it might be Bastardo, who has pitched surprisingly well since returning to Pittsburgh at the trade deadline.
3. Shawn Kelley, Washington Nationals — Mark Melancon has pitched in four of five.