Monkey Bytes, April 6: Two Bullpen Structures in Flux, Command Issues across the slate, Workload Management, and more

Friday did not feature a full slate of games but it provided a bevy of high-leverage events of interest. A.J. Hinch acknowledged frustrated fantasy players, Pete Fairbanks complained about the baseballs in Colorado, Kenley Jansen moved into sixth place all-time in saves, and vulture options too, covered in today’s Monkey Bytes.

Detroit Tigers – Just when it felt safe trusting a Tigers reliever, matching-up by lineup pockets appears. IDuring a tied game in the eighth, Jason Foley faced the 3-4-5 lineup pocket, retiring the side in order while recording two strikeouts on nine pitches (77.8 Strike%) with two whiffs (22.2 SwStr%) and collected his second win courtesy of a rally in the bottom of the frame. Andrew Chafin opened the ninth but gave up two walks while striking out one over two-thirds scoreless before getting lifted, resulting in his second hold. Alex Lange entered with two runners on, striking out his only batter faced on four pitches (75 Strike%) and getting one whiff (25 SwStr%) for his first save this season. All four of these relievers have appeared on consecutive days.

Hierarchy remains: *Jason Foley | *Shelby Miller | *Andrew Chafin

*=closer-by-committee

Kansas City Royals – Taking over in the top of the ninth with two runners on and one out, James McArthur induced a game-ending double play groundout by Andrew Vaughn for his first save of the season, throwing only two pitches. Will Smith gets credit for his first hold, giving up a hit and a walk while striking out one in one-third of the ninth. Key here, he was pulled from this outing, which puts his “closer” role in question moving forward. Chris Stratton collected his first win, tossing a scoreless eighth, yielding a hit and a walk while striking out one. John Schreiber stranded a runner and recorded two outs in the seventh, walking one and striking out one. There’s a chance manager Mike Quatraro shifts into a match-up-based approach, but McArthur may emerge with primary save share with consistent outings moving forward. He’s the preferred addition if he was dropped or available in your league. 

Updated Hierarchy: *James McArthur | *Will Smith | John Schreiber 

* = closer-by-committee

American League (Game Recaps from April 5)

Baltimore Orioles – Nailing down his first save, Craig Kimbrel fired a clean ninth, striking out two while preserving a three-run win in Pittsburgh. He threw 13 pitches (9 strikes – 69.2 Strike%) and induced two whiffs (15.4 SwStr%). Yennier Cano retired the side in order in the eighth, recording two strikeouts for his first hold on 11 pitches (63.6 Strike%) with two whiffs (18.2 SwStr%).

Updated Hierarchy: Craig Kimbrel | Yennier Cano | Danny Coulombe

Boston Red Sox – Facing the 3-4-5 lineup pocket, Kenley Jansen converted his third save of the year, and 423rd of his career, putting him into sixth place all-time. He fired a clean ninth and recorded one strikeout on 18 pitches (13 strikes – 72.2 Strike%) and produced two whiffs (11.1 SwStr%). He’s been scoreless over four outings with six strikeouts versus five walks. Isaiah Campbell notched his second hold, retiring the side in order in the eighth. Chris Martin suffered his first blown save and collected his first win, giving up two hits and an earned run while striking out two. This snapped his 24-game scoreless streak, but he’s only allowed two earned runs over his last 38.2 innings.

Updated Hierarchy: Kenley Jansen | Chris Martin | Isaiah Campbell

Chicago White Sox – Still within his high-leverage learning curve, Michael Kopech suffered his first loss, issuing Salvador Perez a one-out walk, who was replaced by pinch runner Dairon Blanco, who promptly stole second base, and scored on an RBI single by MJ Melendez. Kopech bounced back recording consecutive strikeouts, but he must be more aggressive, and efficient in the strike zone. He threw 31 pitches (17 strikes – 54.8 Strike%) while producing six whiffs (19.4 SwStr%). Steven Wilson retired all four batters faced, three via strikeout on 13 pitches (10 strikes – 76.9 Strike%) with three whiffs (23.1 SwStr%). John Brebbia recorded two outs but left after re-injuring his calf. It’s being reported as minor, but he may be unavailable the rest of the weekend.

Updated Hierarchy: *Michael Kopech | *Steven Wilson | Jordan Leasure

* = closer-by-committee

Seattle Mariners – After his team rallied for two runs tying the game in the top of the ninth, Andrés Muñoz struggled in the bottom of the inning, walking four of five batters faced, suffering his first loss of the year. He threw 26 pitches (9 strikes – 34.6 Strike%) with one whiff. There were some close calls, but the strike zone was consistently tight all evening. Ryne Stanek allowed three hits and an earned run while striking out one in the eighth.

Hierarchy remains: Andrés Muñoz | Ryne Stanek | Gabe Speier

Tampa Bay Rays – In a wild finish at Coors Field, Pete Fairbanks suffered his first loss after walking all three batters faced, resulting in three earned runs against his ledger. He threw 17 pitches (29.4 Strike%) without getting a whiff. One wonders if the cold weather played a part with his Raynaud’s syndrome affecting his command issues. Jason Adam took over the bases-loaded situation, striking out his first batter faced before serving up a walk-off grand slam by Ryan McMahon, resulting in his first blown save. Colin Poche was tagged with his first blown save in the sixth, allowing three hits, including a two-run home run by Ezequiel Tovar. 

Hierarchy remains: Pete Fairbanks | Jason Adam | Colin Poche

Toronto Blue Jays – Recording his first save since May 2, 2022, Chad Green closed out his former team while navigating around two hits for a scoreless ninth, preserving a shutout win. He threw 12 pitches (75 Strike%) and induced one whiff. He’s logged three outings this year, posting a 1.50 WHIP with one strikeout over 3.1 innings. Trevor Richards fired 1.1 clean frames and recorded three strikeouts for his first hold. Génesis Cabrera secured his first hold, walking one during two-thirds scoreless in the seventh. Yimi García collected his first win, retiring both batters faced in the sixth, one via strikeout.

Updated Hierarchy: Chad Green | Yimi García (HLR) | Génesis Cabrera

National League (Game Recaps from April 5)

Arizona Diamondbacks – Entering in the bottom of the 10th, Scott McGough suffered his loss, giving up a walk-off single by Travis d’Arnaud. Kevin Ginkel was tagged with his first blown save, allowing two hits, two runs (one earned), and recording two strikeouts over 1.1 innings. This double by Jarred Kelenic scored the game-tying run. Ginkel threw 21 pitches (71.4 Strike%) and generated six whiffs (28.6 SwStr%).

Hierarchy remains: Kevin Ginkel | Ryan Thompson | Scott McGough

Atlanta Braves – Working a scoreless top of the 10th, Pierce Johnson collected his second win courtesy of a walk-off rally in the bottom of the frame. He gave up a walk and recorded two strikeouts, throwing 14 pitches (8 strikes – 57.1 Strike%) and inducing two whiffs (14.3 SwStr%). Raisel Iglesias tossed a scoreless ninth, yielding a hit, needing only 11 pitches (72.7 Strike%) without a whiff.

Hierarchy remains: Raisel Iglesias | A.J. Minter | Pierce Johnson

Chicago Cubs – Hanging on for his first save, Adbert Alzolay navigated around consecutive singles by Freddie Freeman and Will Smith by inducing a fly ball, a fielder’s choice groundout, and a game-ending lineout by James Outman. Alzolay threw 20 pitches (80 Strike%) without recording a whiff. Julian Merryweather notched his first hold, tossing 1.1 scoreless frames, but he did let both inherited runners score giving up a hit and a walk while striking out three.

Hierarchy Remains: Adbert Alzolay | Hector Neris | Julian Merryweather

Colorado Rockies – A walk-off rally featuring a Ryan McMahon grand slam, handing Jalen Beeks his first win of the season. He let his only inherited runner score in the ninth while retiring two of three batters faced. Justin Lawrence turned in an inauspicious debut, allowing a hit to five of the six batters he faced, resulting in five runs against, four earned over one-third of the ninth. Nick Mears notched his second hold, navigating around a hit and a walk while striking out two in a scoreless eighth. Jake Bird worked a scoreless seventh, yielding a hit and striking out two for his first hold.

Updated Hierarchy: Justin Lawrence | Nick Mears | Jake Bird

Milwaukee Brewers – Handed a two-run in the top of the ninth, Abner Uribe suffered his first blown save, giving up three hits, two earned runs, and a walk. However, he collected his first win courtesy of a walk-off walk, in the bottom of the frame. He threw 25 pitches (60 Strike%) and induced three whiffs (12 SwStr%). He’s converted three of four save chances this season, but games like this will happen with a sinkerball pitcher. Elvis Peguero notched his first hold, working around a hit and striking out two in a scoreless eighth.

Updated Hierarchy: Abner Uribe | Joel Payamps | Elvis Peguero

New York Mets – Recording his first save of the season and first since October 4, 2022, Edwin Díaz allowed an unearned run and walked one with one strikeout in a one-run win. His outing began with an error allowing Jonathan India to reach and a walk, putting two runners on before a fielder’s choice groundout, a sacrifice fly, and a game-ending strikeout. He threw 16 pitches (9 strikes – 56.3 Strike%) and induced one whiff. Adam Ottavino notched his first hold, firing a clean eighth and striking out two. Brooks Raley stranded two runners for his second hold, walking one and striking out one over one-third of an inning. Drew Smith also stranded two runners but gave up two hits and recorded one strikeout over a combined inning. All four of these relievers have appeared on consecutive days.

Hierarchy remains: Edwin Díaz | Adam Ottavino | Brooks Raley

San Francisco Giants – Benefiting from a walk-off, Camilo Doval collected his first win. He worked a scoreless top of the ninth, navigating around a hit and a walk while striking out two. He threw 27 pitches (16 strikes – 59.3 Strike%) and generated four whiffs (14.8 SwStr%). Tyler Rogers retired the side in order in the eighth, recording one strikeout. 

Hierarchy remains: Camilo Doval | Tyler Rogers | Taylor Rogers

Vulture Save Options for Saturday, April 6

BOS: Jansen and Martin have appeared in three games over the last four days. Isaiah Campbell could be in line for a traditional one-inning save chance and Justin Slaten may be in play for a multiple-inning outing which could yield a vulture win or save chance.

CWS: Kopech threw 31 pitches last night, putting Steven Wilson in play for the vulture save.

DET: Because of a doubleheader on Thursday, Foley, Chafin, and Lange have worked on consecutive days, though Lange only threw four pitches on Friday. Shelby Miller logged 34 pitches across two innings on Thursday, so he may be available, but Tyler Holton working a multi-inning outing along with Alex Faedo may be necessary on Saturday.

KCR: Smith has pitched in three of the last four, which puts McArthur or Schreiber on the radar for a save chance. He’s off to a rough start, but Nick Anderson may see leverage work as well.

NYM: With the bullpen stretched thin referenced above, Jorge López emerges as the vulture save option for Saturday.

Vulture Save Options for Sunday, April 7

ATL: If Iglesias pitches on Saturday, A.J. Minter may fill in with an ancillary save on Sunday.

BAL: Monitor how the Orioles use the leverage relievers on Saturday. If Kimbrel and Cano pitch again, they will be off on Sunday, placing Keegan Akin or Jacob Webb in play for a vulture save chance.

BOS: Reports hinted Jansen pitched through a sore back on Friday, placing Chris Martin on the radar for the save chance on Sunday with a plane ride home looming after the contest.

CHC: If Alzolay pitches on Saturday, it will mean he’s worked on consecutive days, and in three of the last four, placing Hector Neris on the vulture save horizon for Sunday.

MIL: Last, but not least, if Uribe pitches again on Saturday, Joel Payamps will be the vulture target for Sunday.

Closer Monkey’s filthy pitch of the day award goes to Tyler Rogers, who confounded Graham Pauley with this slider last night, courtesy of the Pitching Ninja.

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Monkey Bytes, April 2: April Fools by managers?; Game Recaps, and Injury Updates

Although fantasy players prefer clarity during high-leverage events, some managers will deploy their best relievers in the highest-leveraged moment, not necessarily reserve them for the traditional save chance in the ninth inning. This happened not, once or twice, but during three separate contests in Monday’s slate. It remains early for tracking bullpen usage patterns, but it could affect how save situations evolve moving forward.

Seattle Mariners – Protecting a two-run lead, Andrés Muñoz entered in the top of the eighth against Cleveland’s 3-4-5 lineup pocket, in the highest-leveraged moment. Although he served up a solo home run by Josh Naylor, he secured the hold and recorded a strikeout while throwing 16 pitches (75 Strike%) with three whiffs (18.8 SwStr%). Ryne Stanek fired a clean ninth, striking out one for his first save versus the 7-8-9 pocket. Also appearing in relief, Tayler Saucedo retired two batters in the sixth for his first hold. Gabe Speier notched his second hold, giving up a hit and striking out two in a scoreless seventh. Scott Servais played for the win, not for a traditional save.

Hierarchy Remains: Andrés Muñoz | Ryne Stanek | Gabe Speier

Cincinnati Reds – Taking over in the bottom of the eighth with two runners on and one out, Alexis Díaz picked off the pinch-runner at second, and retired all four batters faced, recording two strikeouts, then collected his first win of the season courtesy of a rally in the top of the 10th. He threw 14 pitches (64.3 Strike%) and generated three whiffs (21.4 SwStr%). Tejay Antone worked the 10th, allowing a hit, an unearned run, and a walk while striking out two. Brent Suter gave up two hits during one-third of the eighth before being removed. Justin Wilson tossed a scoreless seventh, walking one and striking out one. Emilio Pagán retired two batters in the sixth, giving up a hit and striking out one. David Bell has done this before with his relievers. The good news, Díaz only needed 14 pitches in this outing, so he could record the save chance if called upon in tonight’s contest.

Hierarchy Updated: Alexis Díaz | Lucas Sims | Fernando Cruz

Miami Marlins – In a curious leverage pattern, Tanner Scott took over a tied game in the top of the eighth against the top of the Angels lineup, which features three right-handed hitters in the top four spots. Scott issued three straight walks, let the go-ahead run score on a fielder’s choice groundout, and then retired the next two hitters en route to his second loss. He threw 27 pitches (14 strikes – 51.9 Strike%) with no whiffs. In the ninth, Anthony Bender allowed two hits and two earned runs while striking out one over two-thirds of an inning. Burch Smith recorded the last out in the inning after walking a batter. In the seventh, Andrew Nardi gave up a hit and recorded a strikeout in a scoreless outing. George Soriano was tagged with his first blown save, serving up two solo home runs and striking out one in the sixth. Manager Skip Schumaker remains steadfast in his support for Scott, but Nardi could be on the radar for those interested for future save chances if the command issues linger.

Hierarchy Remains: Tanner Scott | Andrew Nardi | Anthony Bender

American League (Game Recaps April 1)

Baltimore Orioles – As far as blown saves come, this was a tough one for Craig Kimbrel during his team debut. With one out, he allowed an opposite-field bloop single, then pinch-runner Dairon Blanco stole second and third, then scored on a sacrifice fly, tying the game, before an inning-ending strikeout of Bobby Witt Jr. However, Kimbrel collected his first win courtesy of a walk-off home run in the bottom of the frame. He threw 23 pitches (15 strikes – 65.2 Strike%) with one whiff. Yennier Cano navigated around two hits and a walk while striking out one over 1.1 scoreless innings. Keegan Akin tossed 1.1 scoreless frames, yielding a hit and striking out one.

Hierarchy Remains: Craig Kimbrel | Yennier Cano | Dillon Tate

Boston Red Sox – Taking the baton from Tanner Houck, newly acquired reliever Chase Anderson recorded a three-inning save, allowing a hit and striking out three in a scoreless appearance, preserving a combined shutout in Oakland. He threw 40 pitches (75 Strike%) and induced five whiffs (12.5 SwStr%). Before the game, manager Alex Cora indicated Kenley Jansen was available if needed per Christopher Smith of MassLive on “X”. 

Hierarchy Remains: Kenley Jansen | Chris Martin | Josh Winckowski

Detroit Tigers – Closing out a combined shutout, Shelby Miller retired the side in order in the bottom of the 10th, stranding the “place” runner. He threw 16 pitches (50 Strike%) without a whiff. Jason Foley collected his first win, tossing a scoreless ninth, giving up a hit, and striking out two on 15 pitches (80 Strike%) with two whiffs (13.3 SwStr%). Alex Faedo logged two scoreless frames, allowing a hit and a walk while striking out three. Will Vest stranded a runner and retired his only batter faced in the sixth.

Hierarchy Remains: *Jason Foley | *Shelby Miller | Andrew Chafin

Kansas City Royals -Suffering his first loss, Nick Anderson allowed two hits, including a walk-off two-run home run by Jordan Westburg in Baltimore. James McArthur gave up three hits and an earned run while striking out one in the eighth, though his team defense did him no favors. Chris Stratton worked a scoreless seventh, allowing a hit. John Schreiber fired a clean sixth, striking out one.

Hierarchy Remains: Will Smith | James McArthur | John Schreiber

Los Angeles Angels – Securing his second save, Carlos Estévez turned in a scoreless bottom of the ninth, yielding a hit. He threw 12 pitches (75 Strike%) without inducing a whiff. Matt Moore notched his first hold, firing a clean eighth, and striking out one. Adam Cimber collected his first win, firing 1.2 clean frames and striking out one. José Suarez worked 1.1 scoreless innings, navigating around a hit and two walks while striking out two. José Cisnero scattered two hits during a scoreless fourth.

Hierarchy Remains: Carlos Estévez | Matt Moore | José Soriano

New York Yankees – Providing the high-leverage relievers rest, manager Aaron Boone called upon Victor González for the save in the bottom of the ninth, and he responded with a scoreless inning, yielding a one-out double, but retired the next two batters. Nick Burdi secured his first hold, firing a clean eighth while striking out one. Luke Weaver collected his second win, logging 2.1 innings, giving up two hits, an earned run, and a walk.

Hierarchy Remains: Clay Holmes | Ian Hamilton | Jonathan Loáisiga

National League (Game Recaps April 1)

Philadelphia Phillies – Entering with his team down by four, Nick Nelson retired his only batter faced via strikeout, stranding a runner. Connor Brogdon suffered his first loss, giving up four runs (three earned) on a grand slam in the top of the 10th after issuing two walks. He finished with three walks versus two strikeouts in his two-thirds of an inning. José Alvarado worked a scoreless ninth, walking one and striking out two. He threw 15 pitches (60 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (18.8 SwStr%). Yunior Marte tossed a clean eighth, striking out one. Matt Strahm fired a clean seventh, striking out one. Jeff Hoffman was tagged with his first blown save, letting both inherited runners score while allowing two hits and striking out two in the sixth. 

Hierarchy Remains: *José Alvarado | *Jeff Hoffman | *Seranthony Domínguez

Pittsburgh Pirates – Pressed into action with two runners on and two outs, Aroldis Chapman retired his only batter-faced on a game-ending flyout, throwing only three pitches for his first save of the season, and 322nd of his career. He’s logged 2.1 innings over three outings with three strikeouts. Ryder Ryan got credit for his first hold, allowing two hits, an earned run, and a walk while striking out three over 1.2 innings. Roansy Contreras made his season debut as a reliever, collected his first win, and was tagged with his first blown save. He allowed two hits, including a game-tying two-run home run, and a walk while striking out three during his two-inning stint. There’s been four saves by the Pirates, David Bednar has not recorded one of them.

Hierarchy Remains: David Bednar | Aroldis Chapman | Ryan Borucki

St. Louis Cardinals – Finishing off a four-run win in San Diego, Ryan Helsley tossed a scoreless bottom of the ninth, allowing a two-out single by Manny Machado. He threw six pitches (83.3 Strike%) with no whiffs. Even though this was a non-save outing, his velocity returned, averaging 98.3 m.p.h. with his four-seam fastball while facing the 2-3-4-5 hitters. JoJo Romero fired a clean eighth, striking out one on nine pitches (77,8 Strike%) with four whiffs (44.4 SwStr%).

Hierarchy Remains: Ryan Helsley | Giovanny Gallegos | JoJo Romero

Injury Updates (click the player’s name for the update)

Vulture Saves

For Tuesday, April 2:

  • Matt Moore (LAA)
  • Andrew Nardi (MIA)
  • Seranthony Domínguez (PHI)

Contingency Options for April 3:

  • Lucas Sims (CIN): if Alexis Díaz pitches on Tuesday
  • Giovanny Gallegos (STL): if Ryan Helsley pitches on Tuesday
  • Keegan Akin or Dillon Tate (BAL): if Craig Kimbrel pitches on Tuesday

Closer Monkey’s filthy outing of the day, Edwin Díaz in a non-save appearance, courtesy of the Pitching Ninja.

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Monkey Bytes, March 28: Burning question(s) for all 30 teams

It’s the calm before the storm, with Opening Day upon us. Every team starts this season with hopes and aspirations, along with the fantasy community. Because there are no results worth sharing, going through each team’s high-leverage questions before games count makes sense. These will be split by league. Enjoy.

American League

Baltimore Orioles

With Félix Bautista out for the season, can the revamped leverage ladder preserve leads for Craig Kimbrel?

The good news, Dillon Tate and Danny Coulombe turned in strong spring outings. The bad news, Cionel Pérez, and Jacob Webb did not. A key for the bullpen will be Yennier Cano not suffering a sophomore slump.

Boston Red Sox

Can Kenley Jansen stay healthy and boost his cutter velocity once games count? Who will he be traded to?

Most forget Jansen converted 29 of 33 save chances last year, though this snapped his streak of recording at least 30 saves over a full 162-game season since 2014. He and Chris Martin will be unrestricted free agents at the end of the year, so it’s a matter of when, not if each gets moved ahead of the trade deadline. This brings up the last question, will Liam Hendriks secure a save in 2024?

Chicago White Sox

Who receives the first save chance? Can a reliever emerge with the primary save share?

No matter who the fantasy community prefers gets save chances, it’s the manager’s decision. After showing strong results in spring appearances as a reliever, will Pedro Grifol deploy Michael Kopech as his closer?

Cleveland Guardians

Will Emmanuel Clase post a third straight year with at least 40 saves?

His 110 saves since the start of 2021 ranks first among all relievers. Yes, he suffered 12 blown saves last year. Can his slider perform more like 2022 (27.5 swinging strike percentage) versus last year’s results (16.4 percent swinging strike rate)? If yes, he’s as stable as they come for saves.

Detroit Tigers

Will Alex Lange throw enough first-pitch strikes and rein in his command unlocking a career year? Or, will he lose his grip on the preferred save share in his hierarchy?

Lange finished spring with an encouraging 62.5 strike percentage, which would represent a career-best in the category. It’s a very limited sample, but a point of emphasis in his off-season training. He’s a different pitcher when ahead in counts, which unlocks the door to his devastating change-up (18.7 percent swinging strike rate) and curve (23.4 swinging strike percentage). If he struggles, Jason Foley or Shelby Miller could move atop the bullpen hierarchy, but time will tell if it’s necessary.

Houston Astros

Beat writers for the Astros call Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly, and Bryan Abreu a dominant triumvirate, can they overcome a weak leverage bridge or will they wear down as the season ensues?

It’s been encouraging seeing Hader throw more sliders, which could increase his strikeout rate this season. However, Abreu finished the spring with a bloated 2.63 WHIP and seven strikeouts versus six walks over 5.1 innings. He’s also sitting a m.p.h. below his normal average fastball velocity. If he’s pitching through an injury or the struggles linger into the season, this already shaky leverage ladder gets even shakier.

Kansas City Royals

How long does Will Smith remain atop the hierarchy?

Adding veteran southpaw, and three-time World Champion Smith on the roster provides veteran leadership in the bullpen. But he struggled in the second half and was not a factor during his team’s postseason run. It feels like he’s a stopgap in the ninth, not a solution. This situation feels like the Cubs last year, meaning it may only be a matter of time until James McArthur takes over as the closer by June. Time will tell.

Los Angeles Angels

When does Robert Stephenson make his debut? Can Carlos Estévez remain atop the hierarchy until the trade deadline?

Riding the wave of a dominant second half with the Rays last year, Stephenson signed a three-year deal with the Angels as the closer of the future. He did not appear in a spring contest while dealing with shoulder discomfort in camp. He’s throwing on the side, but there’s no timeline for his team debut. Estévez was dominant in the first half last year, then regression fueled by fatigue harpooned his results after the All-Star break. He begins the year as the closer, but was two-to-four m.p.h. down with his fastball velocity this spring. Stay tuned.

Minnesota Twins

Who gets the first save chance this year? Will Griffin Jax be the team’s most valuable reliever this year?

Acknowledging most spring numbers may not matter, one cannot overlook Jax’s robust 12:0 K:BB through 7.2 scoreless frames with a 0.39 WHIP and a 30.2 swinging strike percentage. He may not be the interim closer and operate as the HLR, but his potential breakout season will help keep Jhoan Durán healthy when he returns and his role as the closer. Brock Stewart remains on the radar in deeper formats since he may accrue ancillary saves with Durán on the injured list.

New York Yankees

Which reliever replaces Michael King and who becomes the primary set-up reliever for Clay Holmes?

Early in the spring, it seemed like Ian Hamilton would be the natural replacement for King in this leverage ladder. He can log multiple-inning outings with strikeout upside or take on an opponent’s toughest lineup pocket before the ninth. However, with Tommy Kahnle on the injured list, Hamilton may be the eighth-inning cog and not cede the role. It’s also been reported Jonathan Loásiga will man a multi-inning relief role, then receive two days off before his next outing. If things go sideways, Holmes, Kahnle, and Loáisiga will be free agents at the end of the season. This ride may get bumpy, especially if the starting pitchers do not work deep into games with Gerrit Cole sidelined.

Oakland A’s

Will Mark Kotsay use Mason Miller as the closer?

This one’s a slam-dunk question since it determines the fantasy ceiling for the most talented pitcher on this team’s roster. Multiple beat writers have insinuated this will be his role, but until he receives early save chances, it causes apprehension for fantasy players. However, Miller posted a 14:2 K:BB (40 K-BB percentage) with a 57.1 ground-ball percentage, and 25.8 swinging strike percentage this spring. Facing major league lineups will be tougher, but his stuff should play as a high-leverage reliever. Health remains his final hurdle to clear.

Seattle Mariners

Can the Opening Day relievers be effective until Matt Brash and Gregory Santos return?

One of the most popular speculative relievers was Brash in the preseason, but his helium was tempered by an elbow issue. He’s at least three weeks away from appearing with the Mariners, and Santos may not be ready until mid-May. In the interim, the team needs strong performances from Ryne Stanek, Gabe Speier, Trent Thornton, Tayler Saucedo, and Austin Voth. Feeling lucky or will Andrés Muñoz be sleepless in Seattle?

Tampa Bay Rays

Will Pete Fairbanks follow up last year’s career bests with more innings and saves this year?

In 2023, Fairbanks set career highs in appearances (49), innings (45.1), strikeouts (68), and saves (25). His breakout dispelled the myth about the team using multiple relievers for saves rather than a primary save share. Will he remain healthy in 2024?

Texas Rangers

Does José Leclerc remain the closer for the entirety of 2024? Will Texas produce a better save percentage this season?

For Leclerc, it’s all about velocity and command. Throwing strikes unleashes his slider for strikeouts. Working behind in counts results in traffic, which represents tightrope walks during high-leverage events. Despite winning the World Series, this bullpen only converted 47.6 percent of its save chances. Less than optimal.

Toronto Blue Jays

Who gets the first save this season? When will Jordan Romano (elbow) and Erik Swanson (forearm) return?

Late injury news during spring training creates anxiety for fantasy players. Although the team maintains the MRIs for its top leverage options were clean, both will open the season on the injured list. Yimi García and Chad Green project as the most likely options for saves in their stead. But, this will be a different leverage ladder with Wes Parsons and Nate Pearson active instead of Romano and Swanson.

National League

Arizona Diamondbacks

Will this bullpen withstand the loss of Paul Sewald (oblique) early on?

Even though manager Torey Lovullo refused to name a replacement for Sewald, fantasy players will focus on Kevin Ginkel. He recorded six wins, two saves, a 0.96 WHIP, and 36 strikeouts over his last 27.2 innings last year. He’s capable of filling in for Sewald, but getting him the ball in the ninth may be a challenge at times unless Ryne Nelson, Scott McGough, and Miguel Castro step up.

Atlanta Braves

Does Raisel Iglesias remain healthy all season?

Despite missing time last year with a shoulder injury, Iglesias notched 33 saves in only 58 appearances. During his time in Atlanta, he owns a 98:20 K:BB (23.6 K-BB percentage), a 1.07 WHIP, and secured 34 saves across 82 innings.

Chicago Cubs

How well does Adbert Alzolay do in his second season atop the hierarchy?

It was a tale of two halves for Alzolay during his first full season as a reliever. In the first half, he posted a 24.8 K-BB percentage, a 2.80 SIERA, and a 0.92 WHIP. After the All-Star break, his K-BB percentage slipped to 16.3 percent with a 3.82 SIERA, and 1.18 WHIP. He also missed time with forearm tightness in September. His injury issues from the past should be ignored, but he’s still the best option for saves in this leverage ladder.

Cincinnati Reds

Will the real Alexis Díaz please stand up, please stand up?

Through September 15 last year, he owned a 2.10 ERA with 36 saves after 66 appearances. After this, his results cratered though fatigue was a contributing factor. But, his K-BB percentage declined by the month down the stretch. He also turned in a rough spring, so he enters the season under the microscope of many fantasy players.

Colorado Rockies

Who leads this team in saves at the end of the year?

After a spring competition for the closer role, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post wrote the team has “penciled” in Justin Lawrence as the primary save share but speculated Tyler Kinley could also factor in early save chances. Meanwhile, Daniel Bard continues his rehab for a return in May. This role may change hands multiple times this year.

Los Angeles Dodgers

How do the veterans hold up under the pitch clock rules in 2024?

Since most relievers adapted to the rules changes enacted last year, Blake Treinen and Daniel Hudson did not, missing the majority of 2023. They will be factors in this leverage ladder but may wear down or require injured list stints throughout the season. Brusdar Graterol opens the year on it with shoulder and hip soreness. If this unit loses veteran relievers, the team will be very active ahead of the trade deadline. Thankfully, Evan Phillips remains one of the most under appreciated relievers in baseball. For a second straight season he logged at least 60 appearances, produced 60 strikeouts over 60-plus innings, and owned a WHIP below one. He’s the only qualified reliever to do this over the last two years.

Miami Marlins

Can Tanner Scott carry over his command gains? Will he be traded ahead of the deadline? If yes, who replaces him as the primary save share?

Scott became the second reliever in team history with at least 100 strikeouts last year and tied for the most multiple-strikeout outings in the National League with 32. From August first-on, owned a 5-1 record while converting 10 of 12 save opportunities with a 33:3 K:BB (29.7 K-BB percentage) over 27.1 innings, a 0.70 WHIP, 0.99 ERA, 2.16 SIERA, 72 Strike percentage, and 18.2 swinging strike rate. After a rough spring, can he maintain some of these gains? He’s an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season, so which reliever(s) pitch well this year could be replacements in waiting for saves in August. Stay tuned.

Milwaukee Brewers

Who gets the first save chance? The second? The third?

See a theme here? What seemed like one of the easiest leverage ladders to predict became one of the toughest when Devin Williams was diagnosed with three stress fractures in his back. Add in a new manager who suggested a match-up-based approach in the high-leverage innings and it’s chaos for fantasy players. Now we await if it’s Joel Payamps, Abner Uribe, or Trevor Megill receiving the save chances, but it could be all three.

New York Mets

Will the trumpets returning be enough for this leverage ladder?

Displaying no signs of rust after missing 2023, Edwin Díaz will be the team’s closer and remains one of the best at his craft. However, his leverage bridge may be shaky at times, and this will affect his save total if they do not pitch well.

Philadelphia Phillies

Does any reliever represent the primary save share or will the “floating closer” concept remain in effect?

This topic was covered in detail in yesterday’s committee post, so it will not be repeated. Some asked about Orion Kerkering as well. He will be a leverage factor but will open the year on the injured list after missing most of training camp because of illness. Which sets his clock back for earning a larger role in this bullpen.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Is David Bednar ready for Opening Day? Should the velocity readings by Aroldis Chapman in his last spring outing be a concern? Who sets up for these two?

Will two spring outings be enough for Bednar? His velocity was on track, but his command was a bit spotty. Chapman was four m.p.h. his normal velocity against the Yankees, hopefully, this will be a blip. The biggest worry remains the bridge relievers getting the team to save chances.

San Diego Padres

Will “Big Game” Bobby remain healthy? How will Yuki hold up?

With two games under their belt, and Robert Suarez already tied for the major league lead in saves, he’s missed time in each of the two previous seasons, will he be available all year? Yuki Matsui has impressed, but can he handle the demands of an MLB season and the travel? Most players from the NPB wear down during their transitional season.

San Francisco Giants

Does Camilo Doval find trust in his slider again?

Doval went through a rough patch last August, blowing four straight save chances. During this time, he almost stopped throwing his slider, which did not resurface until Gabe Kapler was fired. Perhaps a new voice at the helm, and being on the precipice of his Age-26 season fuels growth in his strikeout percentage.

St. Louis Cardinals

Can Ryan Helsley make it through a full season? Will his velocity spike during a regular season outing?

Usually fantasy players worry about the usage patterns for Helsely by his manager, but ahead of Opening Day, it’s more about his velocities this spring:

In an interview, the reliever said working with lower velocity was by design with eyes on remaining healthy throughout 2024. We will find out soon.

Washington Nationals

Will Kyle Finnegan fend off Hunter Harvey and remain the primary save share in 2024?

Finnegan opened 2023 as the closer, lost his grip on the role, regained it after the All-Star break, and never looked back while recording a career-best 28 saves. Despite this, many prefer Harvey as the closer of the future for this franchise. This may be an inevitability, but once the lights go on, it’s still Finnegan atop the hierarchy, for now.

Thanks for stopping by Closer Monkey on Opening Day. Until next time, stay safe and be well.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

Baseball-Reference.com

BrooksBaseball.net

Updated Tiered Rankings, March 23 (Jewett)

Photo by: Jennifer Buchanan / The Seattle Times)

Appreciating this remains a fluid process, especially given the recent injury news for many relievers, a second run of tiered rankings seems appropriate, especially for those who may be drafting or taking part in an auction this weekend. These rankings do not reflect average draft position (available at Fantasy Pros). Instead, they are based on blended rankings from Fangraphs (Steamer, THE BAT, and ZiPS), with my save projections fused in. I use a spreadsheet with Standings Gain Points as my guide, though there are a couple of liberties taken in the tiers below.

One does not have to take a reliever where they will be listed, but this will be a guide on relievers, not consensus group think. It’s not gospel, and if you feel differently about a reliever, target him accordingly.

Tier One

  • Emmanuel Clase (CLE)
  • Edwin Díaz (NYM)

This tier lost a member when Devin Williams was diagnosed with two stress fractures in his back. Others will be drafted ahead of this group, but using the data, they bubbled toward the top. No other reliever may provide the strikeout upside Díaz possesses, and Durán may take his game to a new level like Félix Bautista did last year. There’s risk with any reliever, but they present high ceilings. No one loves Clase, but he’s recorded 40-plus saves in consecutive seasons. He’s the floor play. (UPDATE: With Jhoan Durán on the injured list for Opening Day with an oblique injury, he leaves this tier for upcoming drafts)

Tier Two

  • Andrés Muñoz (SEA)
  • Raisel Iglesias (ATL)
  • Josh Hader (HOU)
  • Camilo Doval (SFG)
  • Pete Fairbanks (TBR)
  • Evan Phillips (LAD)
  • David Bednar (PIT)

It’s the pick-your-poison tier, with Muñoz leading the way. He’s not for the risk-averse, but if he’s closer to his 2022 iteration than last year, he could be the reliever taken in the second tier this year who performs like a top-tier reliever. Iglesias and Hader will be “safer” picks, especially given their team’s propensity for contending each season. Doval could be hurt by his team’s win total. Fairbanks may not be sexy, but when healthy, produces solid numbers. Bednar made his spring debut on Thursday (March 21), showing no decline in velocity. His workload may be managed early on, but he’s back on track for Opening Day.

Tier Three

  • Craig Kimbrel (BAL)
  • Tanner Scott (MIA)
  • Alexis Díaz (CIN)
  • Ryan Helsley (STL)
  • Jordan Romano (TOR)
  • Jhoan Durán (MIN)
  • Clay Holmes (NYY)
  • Adbert Alzolay (CHC)
  • Mason Miller (OAK)

Many fantasy players may draw a line in this tier, meaning they will have one, if not two relievers, because this represents the cliff for many. There will be the never-pay-for-saves crowd in every room, which can work, especially since one can make the case for and against each of these relievers. Díaz tailed off at the end of last year, was it fatigue or the decaying K-BB percentage? Scott has displayed poor command this spring, can he dial it back in while working on his mechanics in the backfields? Miller may emerge as a terrific high-leverage reliever, will the A’s let him? (UPDATE: With Durán’s injury, giving him 50 projected innings, which lands him between Sewald and Holmes in SGPs. Add Paul Sewald into this mix with a Grade 2 oblique strain of his own)

Tier Four

  • Robert Suarez (SDP)
  • Kenley Jansen (BOS)
  • José Leclerc (TEX)
  • Alex Lange (DET)
  • Carlos Estévez (LAA)
  • José Alvarado (PHI)
  • Hunter Harvey (WSH)

Mining for a second reliever here can make sense, and at his present price point, Suarez will enhance many team builds. Jansen did not make a splashy debut this spring, but he did record 29 saves last year in 33 chances. He does present a risk in WHIP moving forward, father time always wins. No one loves Estévez, but he has the ninth inning and his main competition has not resumed throwing with shoulder discomfort. Alvarado’s another high-risk, high-reward reliever, but his floor will not be as safe as others.

Tier Five

  • Kevin Ginkel (ARI)
  • Griffin Jax (MIN)
  • Michael Kopech (CWS)
  • Paul Sewald (ARI)
  • Robert Stephenson (LAA)
  • Devin Williams (MIL)
  • Jason Adam (TBR)
  • Aroldis Chapman (PIT)
  • Ryan Pressly (HOU)
  • A.J. Minter (ATL)
  • Yuki Matsui (SDP)
  • Jeff Hoffman (PHI)
  • Brock Stewart (MIN)

It feels like risk may be the prevailing theme of this exercise. Stephenson and Williams still receive decent SGPs based on past pedigree, but health will determine their fantasy impacts. Can Kopech thrive as a closer, or will his team even use him as one? No idea. However, his results as a reliever in 2021, especially the 25.2 K-BB percentage over 55.1 innings with 80 strikeouts cannot be overlooked. If he does well, the team can move him ahead of the trade deadline. Adam, Matsui, Chapman, Pressly, and Minter represent handcuffs with ancillary save upside. If you believe in Lange, move him up. It’s all about the walk rate in my apprehension with him. He has great secondary offerings, but his fastball remains flat and hittable. Hoffman may be a surprise, yet, he could be a late round flier who gets double digits in saves within the Phillies’ “floating closer” concept. (UPDATE: With the Twins’ news, Jax enters this tier with a projected 10 saves by our team).

Tier Six

  • Kyle Finnegan (WSH)
  • Will Smith (KCR)
  • Justin Lawrence (COL)
  • Bryan Abreu (HOU)
  • Joel Payamps (MIL)
  • Giovanny Gallegos (STL)
  • Yimi García (TOR)
  • Josh Sborz (TEX)
  • Justin Lawrence (COL)

Can Finnegan prove me wrong for a third straight year, it’s entirely possible. Beat writers keep saying it’s Payamps getting the first chance, but if he gets stuck as the HLR (highest leveraged reliever), a different Brewers reliever may provide late-round value, segue alert.

Late-Round Fliers

  • Trevor Megill/Abner Uribe (MIL)
  • Jordan Leasure (CWS) – stash play
  • Chris Martin (BOS) – Jansen’s workload will also be managed closely
  • James McArthur (KCR) – this year’s Alzolay

Hybrids (Relievers who may work multiple innings with ancillary save upside)

  • Ian Hamilton (NYY) – though he may emerge as the primary high-leverage set-up reliever
  • Chad Green (TOR)
  • Sixto Sánchez (MIA)

Thanks for stopping by. Until next time, stay safe and be well.

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Top 60 Relievers for SOLDS, March 22 (Jewett)

Leagues that use SOLDS (saves plus holds) allow fantasy players a little more leeway while building a roster. One can target the best relievers on teams with high win totals, not necessarily targeting “closers“, which creates unique values, especially for relievers with strong K-BB percentages and strong ratios. Fusing blended projections from Fangraphs with my own SOLDS projections, here’s a top 60 for the upcoming draft weekend. For those interested, the projections can be viewed on this SPREADSHEET.

SOLDS Top 60 Relievers

  1. Emmanuel Clase, Cleveland Guardians
  2. Camilo Doval, San Francisco Giants
  3. Edwin Díaz, New York Mets
  4. Andrés Muñoz, Seattle Mariners
  5. Raisel Iglesias, Atlanta Braves
  6. Josh Hader, Houston Astros
  7. Pete Fairbanks, Tampa Bay Rays
  8. Evan Phillips, Los Angeles Dodgers
  9. David Bednar, Pittsburgh Pirates
  10. Ryan Helsley, St. Louis Cardinals
  11. Craig Kimbrel, Baltimore Orioles
  12. Paul Sewald, Arizona Diamondbacks
  13. Jordan Romano, Toronto Blue Jays
  14. Alexis Díaz, Cincinnati Reds
  15. Clay Holmes, New York Yankees
  16. Tanner Scott, Miami Marlins
  17. Jhoan Durán, Minnesota Twins
  18. Adbert Alzolay, Chicago Cubs
  19. Robert Suarez, San Diego Padres
  20. Kenley Jansen, Boston Red Sox
  21. Carlos Estévez, Los Angeles Angels
  22. Hunter Harvey, Washington Nationals
  23. Devin Williams, Milwaukee Brewers
  24. Mason Miller, Oakland Athletics
  25. José Alvarado, Philadelphia Phillies
  26. José Leclerc, Texas Rangers
  27. Alex Lange, Detroit Tigers
  28. Aroldis Chapman, Pittsburgh Pirates
  29. Kyle Finnegan, Washington Nationals
  30. Michael Kopech, Chicago White Sox
  31. A.J. Minter, Atlanta Braves
  32. Ryan Pressly, Houston Astros
  33. Jason Adam, Tampa Bay Rays
  34. Robert Stephenson, Los Angeles Angels
  35. Will Smith, Kansas City Royals
  36. Yuki Matsui, San Diego Padres
  37. Griffin Jax, Minnesota Twins
  38. Bryan Abreu, Houston Astros
  39. Yennier Cano, Baltimore Orioles
  40. Joel Payamps, Milwaukee Brewers
  41. Seranthony Domínguez, Philadelphia Phillies
  42. Josh Sborz, Texas Rangers
  43. Chris Martin, Boston Red Sox
  44. Kevin Ginkel, Arizona Diamondbacks
  45. Scott Barlow, Cleveland Guardians
  46. Tyler Kinley, Colorado Rockies
  47. Giovanny Gallegos, St. Louis Cardinals
  48. Julian Merryweather, Chicago Cubs
  49. Yimi García, Toronto Blue Jays
  50. Abner Uribe, Milwaukee Brewers
  51. James McArthur, Kansas City Royals
  52. Pierce Johnson, Atlanta Braves
  53. Ian Hamilton, New York Yankees
  54. Shelby Miller, Detroit Tigers
  55. Jason Foley, Detroit Tigers
  56. Jeff Hoffman, Philadelphia Phillies
  57. Justin Lawrence, Colorado Rockies
  58. Hector Neris, Chicago Cubs
  59. Taylor Rogers, San Francisco Giants
  60. Trevor Megill, Milwaukee Brewers

Looking back, here are the SOLDS leaders in 2023

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/lpxoS/27/

For a look at team results by league, here are the high-leverage results in the American League

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/DkjKo/22/

And, the team results for the National League in 2023

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/mMTVE/19/

Best of luck in your upcoming drafts, it’s the best time of the year.

Stay safe and be well.

Statistical Credits

  • Fangraphs.com
  • Baseball-Reference.com