Hicks on his way to Toronto and some post-trade shakeups.

July 31, 2023
Toronto Blue Jays – The Blue Jays bolstered their bullpen on Sunday picking up Jordan Hicks from the St. Louis Cardinals. Hicks will take his 100+ MPH fastball north of the border and is likely to be the first choice for Toronto as long as Jordan Romano is out. We do think Romano will return to the closers spot when he is off the IL, so this move is probably a hit to Hicks’ long term value, but he may work his way into a committee if he can string together some solid performances early. 

Updated hierarchy: Hicks | Swanson | Garcia.
*=closer-by-committee

St. Louis Cardinals — The Cardinals have begun the firesale, moving closer Jordan Hicks to Toronto and also sending Chris Stratton to the Texas Rangers. This leaves Giovanny Gallegos and JoJo Romero as the top options for the Cardinals right now. Gallegos pitched 2 scoreless innings yesterday, and Romero pitched the 9th for his first career save. Gallegos certainly has more experience, but Romero has been excellent for the past couple weeks, and given that he got the first save, we will slot him into the top spot in a committee for now. As we noted in our trade deadline preview, keep an eye on Ryan Helsley, who has begun throwing off a mound, and may walk into a cleared out bullpen in early August. 

Updated hierarchy: *Gallegos | Romero | Pallante.
* = closer-by-committee

July 31, 2023
New York Mets – The second save after the David Robertson trade went also to Brooks Raley, who pitched a clean 9th for his 3rd save on the year. Adam Ottavino had gotten the last 2 outs of the 8th right ahead of him. Two in a row is enough to get the leader of the committee tag, but Ottavino is riding a 6 game scoreless streak right now, so he may get the next opportunity. 

Updated hierarchy: *Raley | Ottavino | Smith.
* = closer-by-committee

Kansas City Royals – Our pick for the vulture save last night, Dylan Coleman, got the 8th inning, leaving the vulture save to Carlos Hernandez. Hernandez converted for his first career save. Hernandez has proven himself as a valuable handcuff for Scott Barlow, but with tomorrow’s deadline looming he may be a closer sooner rather than later. 

Hierarchy remains: Barlow | Hernandez | Clarke.

Vulture Save Watch:

  1. Jose Soriano (LAA) — Carlos Estevez and Matt Moore both had long outings yesterday and may get the night off.
  2. Nick Martinez (SD) – Josh Hader has thrown 49 pitches over the past 2 days.
  3. Taylor Rogers (SF) — Both Camilo Doval and Tyler Rogers had long outings yesterday and have now pitched back to back.

For Tuesday

  1. Kirby Yates/Joe Jimenez (ATL) — Today would be back to back and 3 of 4 for the entire Atlanta hierarchy.
  2. Gregory Soto/Seranthony Dominguez (PHI) — The same is true for Philadelphia.

Another meltdown in Arizona

July 25, 2023

Kansas City Royals – Carlos Hernandez got the 8th inning ahead of Scott Barlow, which has been a trend as of late. He moves up to the handcuff spot after another successful bridge.

Updated hierarchy: Barlow | Hernandez | Clarke.

Baltimore Orioles – With most of the Orioles hierarchy on the shelf due to heavy usage, Cionel Perez was the man summoned for the 9th inning. He converted for his first save of the season.

Hierarchy remains: Bautista | Cano | Baker.

Arizona Diamondbacks – A brutal stretch for the Arizona bullpen continued last night, as Andrew Chafin was unable to protect a 1-run lead in the 9th, while Kevin Ginkel allowed a backbreaking 3-run double when summoned to try and keep the game close. And while Scott McGough provided a clean 8th inning outing, that was actually his first scoreless appearance since July 5th. We’ll continue to keep a close eye as to how Torey Lovullo proceeds here.

Hierarchy remains: *Ginkel | Chafin | Castro.
* = closer-by-committee

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
Today
1. Erik Swanson – Jordan Romano has gone back to back and four of five.
2. Justin Topa – Same for Paul Sewald, and Andres Munoz threw 24 pitches yesterday and took a blown save.
3. Carlos Hernandez – Scott Barlow has gone back to back.
4. Gregory Soto – Same for Craig Kimbrel…
5. Brusdar Graterol – …and Evan Phillips.
6. Lucas Sims – Alexis Diaz has gone in three of four.

Tomorrow
1. Griffin Jax/Emilio Pagan – If Jhoan Duran goes today, it’s three of four.
2. Joel Payamps – If Devin Williams goes today, it’s back to back and three of four.
3. Bryan Abreu – If Ryan Pressly goes today, it’s back to back.
4. Giovanny Gallegos – Same for Jordan Hicks.

Chapman Traded and Daniel Hudson returns

July 1, 2023

Texas Rangers — Aroldis Chapman was traded to the Texas Rangers last night in the first major move of trade deadline season. Chapman re-discovered some of the fire that made him the top closer in the game a few years ago, sporting a 16.45 K/9 and a 2.45 ERA. This would normally be good enough to immediately seize a closers role, but Will Smith is having an excellent season as well and hasn’t given up any runs since June 14, although he hasn’t pitched since June 23. GM Chris Young said it would ultimately be up to Bruce Bochy how he deploys the back end of the bullpen, but that Young envisioned it being “sort of matchup based to start and we will see how it evolves after that.” If you’re comparing the two: Chapman has better underlying raw numbers in terms of K/9, whiff rate, and FIP, but has mainly been used in a set up role. Smith has been extremely successful in the closers role in Texas (14 saves, 1 blown) and has done nothing to indicate his job is in jeopardy. We think that Chapman has more upside and will be given a real chance to take over the 9th inning, but it probably requires Will Smith to falter. This looks like a committee for now, and the first few save chances will give us a lot more to go off of, but both Chapman and Smith are worth owning until it all shakes out. 

Updated hierarchy: *Chapman | Smith | Sborz.


Kansas City Royals — The Royals traded Aroldis Chapman yesterday to the Texas Rangers. Chapman had a resurgence in Kansas City, and quickly became an attractive trade piece for the Royals. The new handcuff for Scott Barlow is Taylor Clarke and the recently activated Amir Garrett returns to the hierarchy. It may not be too long before Barlow is shipped out as well, so keep an eye on the Royals bullpen as a possible source of cheap saves come trade deadline time. 

Updated hierarchy: Barlow | Clarke | Garrett.

Colorado Rockies — After being removed from the closers role a few weeks back, Pierce Johnson has rebounded nicely for the Rockies. Over his last 4 appearances he has a win, 2 holds and a clean save from last night, where he came in to protect a 3 run lead. It wasn’t the most difficult of save chances, but that does give him 13 total saves on the year, and he is consistently pitching in the late innings with leads, which is enough to get back into the hierarchy.  

Updated hierarchy: *Lawrence | Bard | Johnson.
* = closer-by-committee

Los Angeles Dodgers – The Dodgers activated Daniel Hudson from the IL yesterday, after missing nearly a year with an ACL injury. The Dodgers immediately gave him the ball in the 8th inning of a 6 run game. He pitched a clean frame with 2 strikeouts and is a welcome addition to the back end of the Dodgers bullpen. Hudson was one of the most reliable set up men before his injury last year, and we will see if he can return to form. Don’t be surprised if he starts moving up the hierarchy quickly, but we will wait to see how he is deployed before making a move. 

Hierarchy remains: *Phillips | Graterol | Ferguson.
* = closer-by-committee

Vulture Save Watch:

  1. Adam Ottavino (NYM) — David Robertson has pitched in back to back, including 29 pitches last night.
  2. Buck Farmer (CIN) — Alexis Diaz has thrown in 3 of 4 including a 13 pitch blown save last night.
  3. Tommy Kahnle (NYY) — The Yankees have a double-header today…
  4. Giovanny Gallegos (STL) — …against the Cardinals.

For Sunday:

  1. Joel Payamps/Elvis Peguero (MIL) — Today would be 3 of 4 for Devin Williams (and 4 of 6 and 5 of 7).
  2. Kyle Finnegan (WAS) — Today would be back to back and 4 of 5 for Hunter Harvey.
  3. Bryan Abreu (HOU) — Today would be back to back and 3 of 4 for Ryan Pressly

Non-standard usage for Justin Lawrence

June 8, 2023

Colorado Rockies — Justin Lawrence was used as a fireman on Wednesday, coming in with two on in the seventh with a one-run lead. When he escaped that jam, he stayed in for the eighth, but gave up the go-ahead run on a squeeze bunt. If Lawrence keeps getting summoned in high-leverage spots before the ninth, his asterisk could be a permanent appendage.

Hierarchy remains: *Lawrence | Johnson | Bard.
* = closer-by-committee

Atlanta Braves — With Raisel Iglesias resting after three games in four days, AJ Minter came on for a clean ninth, earning his eighth save of the season.

Hierarchy remains: Iglesias | Minter | Anderson.

Oakland A’s — Trevor May picked up a two-out save, entering with two on and the tying run on deck. He gave up a single before shutting the door.

Hierarchy remains: *Lovelady | May | Acton.
* = closer-by-committee

Kansas City Royals — Josh Staumont is headed to the IL with a neck strain, putting Taylor Clarke back into the hierarchy.

Updated hierarchy: Barlow | Chapman | Clarke.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
Today:
1. Caleb Ferguson/Shelby Miller (LAD) — Evan Phillips and Brusdar Graterol have each gone in three of four. Ferguson threw 30 pitches Tuesday.
2. Kevin Kelly (TB) — Jason Adam and Colin Poche have each been used in two of three (and three of five).
3. Pierce Johnson (COL) — Justin Lawrence threw 31 pitches Wednesday.
4. Kendall Graveman (CWS) — The White Sox have a doubleheader…
5. Clay Holmes (NYY) — …against the Yankees.

Friday:
1. Nick Anderson/AJ Minter (ATL) — Raisel Iglesias has had a heavy recent workload, as has Minter.
2. Lucas Sims (CIN) — Alexis Diaz has gone in two of three.

Miguel Castro collects another save

May 24, 2023

Arizona Diamondbacks — We mentioned a couple days ago that the Arizona hierarchy could become a committee. Well, after recording a save on Monday, Andrew Chafin faced the top of the Phillies’ order in the eighth inning on Tuesday before Miguel Castro tossed a 1-2-3 ninth for his fifth save of the season, which is certainly enough to bring out the asterisk. Both men have pitched well of late, as Castro hasn’t allowed an earned run in his last eight appearances while Chafin extended his scoreless streak to seven games.

Updated hierarchy: *Chafin | Castro | McGough.
* = closer-by-committee

Kansas City Royals – As predicted in the Vulture Save Watch, Scott Barlow got Tuesday off and Aroldis Chapman converted the save opportunity in Barlow’s absence.

Hierarchy remains: Barlow | Chapman | Staumont.

Oakland A’s — Trevor May returned from the IL on Tuesday and hit two batters as part of a scoreless eighth inning to keep Oakland’s deficit at 3-2. We’ll slot May back into a hierarchy that you most certainly want to stay away from.

Updated hierarchy: *Lovelady | May | Moll.
* = closer-by-committee

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
Today
1. Giovanny Gallegos/Drew VerHagen (STL) – Ryan Helsley has thrown 50 pitches over the last two days while Gallegos has also worked two straight.
2. Wandy Peralta (NYY) – Michael King threw 31 pitches over two innings last night.
3. Justin Lawrence (COL) – Pierce Johnson has gone in two straight and three of four.
4. Scott McGough (ARI) – Same goes for both Andrew Chafin and Miguel Castro.
5. Caleb Ferguson (LAD) – Both Evan Phillips and Brusdar Graterol have gone back-to-back.

Tomorrow
1. Tyler Rogers (SF) – If Camilo Doval goes today it’ll be two straight and four of five.
2. Nick Martinez/Steven Wilson (SD) – Should either Josh Hader or Martinez pitch tonight that’ll be two straight.
3. Wandy Peralta/Clay Holmes (NYY) – Michael King may get two days off after yesterday’s 31-pitch effort.