Appreciating this remains a fluid process, especially given the recent injury news for many relievers, a second run of tiered rankings seems appropriate, especially for those who may be drafting or taking part in an auction this weekend. These rankings do not reflect average draft position (available at Fantasy Pros). Instead, they are based on blended rankings from Fangraphs (Steamer, THE BAT, and ZiPS), with my save projections fused in. I use a spreadsheet with Standings Gain Points as my guide, though there are a couple of liberties taken in the tiers below.
One does not have to take a reliever where they will be listed, but this will be a guide on relievers, not consensus group think. It’s not gospel, and if you feel differently about a reliever, target him accordingly.
Tier One
- Emmanuel Clase (CLE)
- Edwin Díaz (NYM)
This tier lost a member when Devin Williams was diagnosed with two stress fractures in his back. Others will be drafted ahead of this group, but using the data, they bubbled toward the top. No other reliever may provide the strikeout upside Díaz possesses, and Durán may take his game to a new level like Félix Bautista did last year. There’s risk with any reliever, but they present high ceilings. No one loves Clase, but he’s recorded 40-plus saves in consecutive seasons. He’s the floor play. (UPDATE: With Jhoan Durán on the injured list for Opening Day with an oblique injury, he leaves this tier for upcoming drafts)
Tier Two
- Andrés Muñoz (SEA)
- Raisel Iglesias (ATL)
- Josh Hader (HOU)
- Camilo Doval (SFG)
- Pete Fairbanks (TBR)
- Evan Phillips (LAD)
- David Bednar (PIT)
It’s the pick-your-poison tier, with Muñoz leading the way. He’s not for the risk-averse, but if he’s closer to his 2022 iteration than last year, he could be the reliever taken in the second tier this year who performs like a top-tier reliever. Iglesias and Hader will be “safer” picks, especially given their team’s propensity for contending each season. Doval could be hurt by his team’s win total. Fairbanks may not be sexy, but when healthy, produces solid numbers. Bednar made his spring debut on Thursday (March 21), showing no decline in velocity. His workload may be managed early on, but he’s back on track for Opening Day.
Tier Three
- Craig Kimbrel (BAL)
- Tanner Scott (MIA)
- Alexis Díaz (CIN)
- Ryan Helsley (STL)
- Jordan Romano (TOR)
- Jhoan Durán (MIN)
- Clay Holmes (NYY)
- Adbert Alzolay (CHC)
- Mason Miller (OAK)
Many fantasy players may draw a line in this tier, meaning they will have one, if not two relievers, because this represents the cliff for many. There will be the never-pay-for-saves crowd in every room, which can work, especially since one can make the case for and against each of these relievers. Díaz tailed off at the end of last year, was it fatigue or the decaying K-BB percentage? Scott has displayed poor command this spring, can he dial it back in while working on his mechanics in the backfields? Miller may emerge as a terrific high-leverage reliever, will the A’s let him? (UPDATE: With Durán’s injury, giving him 50 projected innings, which lands him between Sewald and Holmes in SGPs. Add Paul Sewald into this mix with a Grade 2 oblique strain of his own)
Tier Four
- Robert Suarez (SDP)
- Kenley Jansen (BOS)
- José Leclerc (TEX)
- Alex Lange (DET)
- Carlos Estévez (LAA)
- José Alvarado (PHI)
- Hunter Harvey (WSH)
Mining for a second reliever here can make sense, and at his present price point, Suarez will enhance many team builds. Jansen did not make a splashy debut this spring, but he did record 29 saves last year in 33 chances. He does present a risk in WHIP moving forward, father time always wins. No one loves Estévez, but he has the ninth inning and his main competition has not resumed throwing with shoulder discomfort. Alvarado’s another high-risk, high-reward reliever, but his floor will not be as safe as others.
Tier Five
- Kevin Ginkel (ARI)
- Griffin Jax (MIN)
- Michael Kopech (CWS)
- Paul Sewald (ARI)
- Robert Stephenson (LAA)
- Devin Williams (MIL)
- Jason Adam (TBR)
- Aroldis Chapman (PIT)
- Ryan Pressly (HOU)
- A.J. Minter (ATL)
- Yuki Matsui (SDP)
- Jeff Hoffman (PHI)
- Brock Stewart (MIN)
It feels like risk may be the prevailing theme of this exercise. Stephenson and Williams still receive decent SGPs based on past pedigree, but health will determine their fantasy impacts. Can Kopech thrive as a closer, or will his team even use him as one? No idea. However, his results as a reliever in 2021, especially the 25.2 K-BB percentage over 55.1 innings with 80 strikeouts cannot be overlooked. If he does well, the team can move him ahead of the trade deadline. Adam, Matsui, Chapman, Pressly, and Minter represent handcuffs with ancillary save upside. If you believe in Lange, move him up. It’s all about the walk rate in my apprehension with him. He has great secondary offerings, but his fastball remains flat and hittable. Hoffman may be a surprise, yet, he could be a late round flier who gets double digits in saves within the Phillies’ “floating closer” concept. (UPDATE: With the Twins’ news, Jax enters this tier with a projected 10 saves by our team).
Tier Six
- Kyle Finnegan (WSH)
- Will Smith (KCR)
- Justin Lawrence (COL)
- Bryan Abreu (HOU)
- Joel Payamps (MIL)
- Giovanny Gallegos (STL)
- Yimi García (TOR)
- Josh Sborz (TEX)
- Justin Lawrence (COL)
Can Finnegan prove me wrong for a third straight year, it’s entirely possible. Beat writers keep saying it’s Payamps getting the first chance, but if he gets stuck as the HLR (highest leveraged reliever), a different Brewers reliever may provide late-round value, segue alert.
Late-Round Fliers
- Trevor Megill/Abner Uribe (MIL)
- Jordan Leasure (CWS) – stash play
- Chris Martin (BOS) – Jansen’s workload will also be managed closely
- James McArthur (KCR) – this year’s Alzolay
Hybrids (Relievers who may work multiple innings with ancillary save upside)
- Ian Hamilton (NYY) – though he may emerge as the primary high-leverage set-up reliever
- Chad Green (TOR)
- Sixto Sánchez (MIA)
Thanks for stopping by. Until next time, stay safe and be well.
Please consider becoming a premium subscriber, it helps keep the content flowing.
