March 8, 2015
Chicago Cubs – The Cubs enter the season with more certainty at closer than they have had in years. Hector Rondon did not waste his opportunity last year, and enters this year with Joe Maddon already committing to him as the closer. Maddon has never been shy about using his closer in non-save spots though, so that takes a bite out of Rondon’s value and adds some to the other relief options. There are a lot of power arms available in the Cubs bullpen, so the true hierarchy will probably be in flux early on. Pedro Strop will start in the set-up role and Neil Ramirez will be in line in case they falter. Maddon also spoke highly of their major pickup Jason Motte, calling him a “force multiplier.” And with the recent addition of Phil Coke, they found the lefty specialist that they were looking for, and he should be in line for any LOOGY holds that pop up. Overall, the Cubs have a lot of solid options in the bullpen, but that hurts each player’s individual value, especially with Maddon’s tendency to use his best relievers in the highest-leverage spots, without worrying if they will pick up a hold or a save.
Starting 2015 hierarchy: Rondon | Strop | Ramirez.
Holds candidates: Strop, Ramirez.
Cincinnati Reds – The Reds bullpen has a fantasy monster in closer Aroldis Chapman. When healthy, he is the most dominant relief pitcher in the game, and will rack up K’s as quickly as some starting pitchers. Behind him, Cincy is a bit of a mess. Jumbo Diaz was a solid option for them last year, and will likely start with the 8th inning duties, but he doesn’t have overpowering stuff. Sam LeCure was a consistent performer last year, but despite injuries and poor performances around him, he only found himself in 2 save opportunities all season. Newly acquired Kevin Gregg has closing experience, but at 38 and coming off an injury, he will have to prove himself before he gets the call. Sean Marshall was supposed to be the primary left hander, but injuries last year and a recent setback in his recovery have slowed his return. Finally, J.J. Hoover is trying to forget his 2014 campaign, and the early returns are solid, striking out the side in his first appearance in spring training. With a multitude of options, nobody really stands out. The best bets for holds early on are Diaz and LeCure. If Marshall and Gregg can recover from their injuries, or if Hoover regains some of his form, then they could run away with the set up job, but nothing but an injury is going to unseat the Cuban Missile in the closer role.
Starting 2015 hierarchy: Chapman | Diaz | LeCure
Holds candidates: Diaz, LeCure.
Milwaukee Brewers – With the re-signing of Francisco Rodriguez, and the addition of Jonathan Broxton, the top two spots in the Milwaukee pen seem to be pretty well set. That’s what we thought last year as well, before a surprise appearance of K-Rod coming on to close instead of Jim Henderson. Rodriguez never looked back, and racked up 44 saves over a very solid season. This year the job is his to lose, but he has yet to report to camp. The Brewers say they are not worried, but if his absence stretches later into March we know that Ron Roenicke isn’t afraid to defy expectations. Will Smith will be the primary lefty in the pen and should see plenty of work against right handed hitters as well. If he can Focus on avoiding a mid-season lull like last year, he is a strong candidate for holds as he led the league in appearances with 78. Jim Henderson is a sleeper candidate for saves as the former closer is trying to make a comeback from a forgettable 2014.
Starting 2015 hierarchy: Rodriguez | Broxton | Smith.
Holds candidates: Broxton, Smith.
Pittsburgh Pirates – The Pirates head into the season with no major changes to their bullpen. Mark Melancon will get the first shot at saves after taking over the closers role last year — he converted 23 of 24 save opportunities down the stretch and was instrumental in Pittsburgh’s playoff run. Behind him, the Pirates will turn to lefty Tony Watson as their primary set up man, who has value as a middle reliever, particularly in holds leagues, as a strikeout-per-inning pitcher who doesn’t walk many batters. Newly acquired Antonio Bastardo joins him as the other lefty in the pen, with Jared Hughes also in the mix for late-inning work. In holds leagues, the pride of New Zealand, John Holdzkom, is a sleeper candidate for high leverage innings. He has a power arm and performed well in his brief call up at the end of 2014, but he’s unproven in the majors and has minor league options available. The Pirates may send him down early, and lean on new acquisitions Arquimedes Caminero and former top prospect Radhames Liz to fill out the back end of their bullpen.
Starting 2015 hierarchy: Melancon | Watson | Bastardo.
Holds candidates – Watson, Hughes.
St. Louis Cardinals – Trevor Rosenthal seems secure in his spot to start 2015, though the departure of All Star Pat Neshek has left a hole in the setup role. However, the Cardinals acquired Jordan Walden and Matt Belisle, who will likely slot into the late innings along with Kevin Siegrist. The Cardinals have made a habit of picking up relievers and making them stars, and that could happen with either of their new additions, or journeyman Carlos Villanueva. Villanueva has posted much better numbers as a reliever than as a starter, and if the Cards shift him to that role, he could be a poor man’s Pat Neshek.
Starting 2015 hierarchy: Rosenthal | Walden | Belisle.
Holds candidates: Walden, Belisle.
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