Monkey Bytes: September 6

Despite Thursday’s slate featuring only nine games, three relievers recorded a win and seven secured saves. It began with a combined shutout by the Reds against the Astros and ended with a go-ahead grand slam by Detroit off of Robert Suarez, resulting in a come-from-behind road win.

Our condensed game recaps cover all of yesterday’s high-leverage events of interest.

Closer CliffsNotes

Kevin Ginkel (ARI) recorded a strikeout and induced an inning-ending flyout, stranding two runners in the bottom of the eighth. However, during his return in the ninth, he gave up Tyler Fitzgerald’s single, a stolen base, and Patrick Bailey’s walk-off RBI double, resulting in his third loss.

  • Hierarchy remains: Justin Martinez | A.J. Puk | Ryan Thompson

Alexis Díaz (CIN) retired the side and recorded a strikeout for his 25th save, finishing a 1-0 win over Houston. He threw 14 pitches (8 strikes – 57.1 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (21.4 SwStr%). This marked his second straight clean appearance and his first save since August 13. Tony Santillan collected his second win, logging 1.2 scoreless frames, issuing a walk, and striking out one. He’s been scoreless in six of his last seven with 15 strikeouts against five walks over nine innings. 

  • Hierarchy remains: Alexis Díaz | Emilio Pagán | Tony Santillan

Tyler Kinley (COL) shut the door on his ninth save, preserving a two-run win in Atlanta. Kinley retired the side and recorded two strikeouts against the 2-3-4 lineup pocket. He threw 15 pitches (66.7 Strike%) and produced four whiffs (26.7 SwStr%). Since August 1, he’s converted three of four save chances with 18 strikeouts versus three walks across 13.2 innings. 

  • Hierarchy remains: Tyler Kinley | Angel Chivilli | Justin Lawrence

Tyler Holton (DET) recorded his seventh save, navigating around Xander Bogaerts’ two-out single with a game-ending flyout. He threw 13 pitches (10 strikes – 76.9 Strike%) and induced one whiff. He’s been scoreless in ten of his last 11 and secured a save in three of his last five appearances. 

  • Hierarchy remains: *Jason Foley | *Tyler Holton | Shelby Miller
  • *= closer-by-committee

Bryan Abreu (HOU) entered a scoreless tie, allowing Ty France’s lead-off solo home run and Jake Fraley’s double before retiring the next three batters, resulting in his third loss.

  • Hierarchy remains: Josh Hader | Bryan Abreu | Ryan Pressly

Jhoan Durán (MIN) fired a clean bottom of the ninth and recorded two strikeouts, facing the 7-8-9 lineup pocket, while notching his 22nd save. He threw 12 pitches (83.3 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (25 SwStr%). He’s converted a save in four straight appearances, with clean outings in his last three. 

  • Hierarchy remains: Jhoan Durán | Griffin Jax | Cole Sands

Aroldis Chapman (PIT) took over a bases-loaded situation with one out at the bottom of the ninth. He retired both batters faced, one via strikeout, on six pitches (all strikes) with two whiffs (33.3 SwStr%). He’s been scoreless in 12 out of 13 outings since August 3, with 21 strikeouts versus three walks over 12.2 innings.

  • Hierarchy remains: *Aroldis Chapman | *Dennis Santana | Kyle Nicolas
  • *= closer-by-committee

Matt Strahm (PHI) retired the side while recording one strikeout during a three-run win in Miami, securing his third save. He threw ten pitches (90 Strike%) and induced one whiff. He’s notched a save in his last two outings and been scoreless in six of his last seven.

  • Hierarchy remains: Carlos Estévez | Jeff Hoffman | Matt Strahm

Robert Suarez (SD) struggled with his command and suffered his third loss and fourth blown save, appearing for the fourth time in five days. He allowed a lead-off single, issued a walk, induced a pop-out, and loaded the bases on a second walk. After striking out Kerry Carpenter, he allowed Parker Meadows’ go-ahead grand slam on a 3-2 count, prompting his removal. Suarez threw 26 pitches (12 strikes – 46.2 Strike%) and induced three whiffs. 

  • Hierarchy remains: Robert Suarez | Tanner Scott | Jason Adam

Andrés Muñoz (SEA) issued Lawrence Butler a walk with two outs; then Brent Rooker ambushed a first-pitch fastball for a two-run home run. Muñoz finished with a hit, two earned runs, and a walk while striking out two on 14 pitches (9 strikes – 64.3 Strike%) with four whiffs (28.6 SwStr%) in a non-save appearance. He’s allowed at least a run in back-to-back outings and a home run in four of his last seven.

  • Hierarchy remains: Andrés Muñoz | Collin Snider | Austin Voth

Ryan Walker (SF) recorded an inning-ending strikeout of Jake McCarthy, stranding a runner at third in the eighth. Walker returned for the ninth, working around a walk and striking out two, keeping the game tied. He collected his ninth win on a walk-off rally in the bottom of the inning. He finished with 1.1 scoreless innings, issuing a walk and striking out three on 22 pitches (15 strikes – 68.2 Strike%) with three whiffs (13.6 SwStr%). He’s been scoreless in 13 of his last 14 games, recording two wins and converting all five save chances with 30 strikeouts against three walks through 16 innings.

  • Hierarchy remains: Ryan Walker | Tyler Rogers | Camilo Doval

Kirby Yates (TEX) fired a clean top of the ninth while striking out the side and recording his 27th save. He threw 12 pitches (83.3 Strike%) and generated four whiffs (33.3 SwStr%). Since suffering his only blown save on August 18, Yates has converted his last six saves and two wins while being scoreless in seven of his last eight appearances with 12 strikeouts against two walks over 7.1 innings.

  • Hierarchy remains: Kirby Yates | David Robertson | Andrew Chafin

Vulture Save Option for Friday, September 6

  • David Robertson (TEX): Yates has appeared in back-to-back games.

Vulture Save Stash for Saturday, September 7

  • Tanner Scott (SD): Although he’s also logged an outing in four of the previous five games, Scott’s pitch count and durability make him the pivot for the save chance in this match-up; Suarez should receive two days rest after Thursday’s loss. 
  • Cole Sands (MIN): If Durán and Jax pitch on Friday, it will be consecutive outings.

Three Takeaways

Suarez and four-seams: Since the workload for Robert Suarez has previously been explored, it’s time we focus on his four-seam fastball-heavy approach. He uses his fastball almost 75 percent of the time this season, and when his command wavers, it results in traffic. It’s easy to note the go-ahead grand slam, but the two walks before it represents the larger issue. His K-BB percentage has dropped from 18.8 percent in the first half to 13.6 since the All-Star break. Appearing four times in five days and relying on one pitch makes a reliever very predictable, as his illustrator from last night’s outing displays:

Muñoz and health: After being unavailable on Tuesday, Andrés Muñoz made his first appearance in September during a non-save outing in Oakland. He retired the first two batters on six pitches, striking out each, then issued Lawrence Butler a walk. With two outs, he threw this pitch to Brent Rooker, resulting in a two-run home run:

It’s a small sample, but Muñoz has allowed at least a run in three of his last six appearances, with three of the five hits allowed being home runs, resulting in a 1.150 on-base plus slugging percentage against in his last 5.1 innings. Can fantasy managers trust him throughout the season when assessing him for next year? His multiple-inning saves this season may manifest in his recent elbow soreness, but it’s a trend worth tracking. 

Rockies closer conundrum: Victor Vodnik begins his rehab assignment at Double-A Hartford later this evening and could return soon. This will strengthen the leverage ladder, but should he immediately return as the de facto closer? Which reliever would you prefer in the ninth, using their second-half results: 

  • Player A: 19.2 IP, 23.1 K-BB%, 0.92 WHIP, 2.85 SIERA, 63.7 Strike%, 18.2 SwStr%, 64 percent contact rate allowed
  • Player B: 14.1 IP, 4.8 K-BB%, 1.53 WHIP, 4.82 SIERA, 59.4 Strike%, 6.4 SwStr%, 84.3 percent contact rate allowed

Perhaps the team will deploy a match-up-based approach, but Vodnik is represented by Player B in this comparison, and Tyler Kinley has produced Player A’s results since the All-Star break.

Friday also provides intrigue for fantasy managers. How will the Yankees’ creative leverage approach appear this weekend against the Cubs? Which reliever receives the first save chance when Clay Holmes does not operate as the closer? Can Boston’s bullpen hold together, and can Liam Hendriks provide a boost, even if he’s working with reduced velocity? This is fun, right?

Those seeking full game recaps should surf the team pages; they’ve all been updated with Thursday’s results.

Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community. Stay safe and be well.

Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

Baseball-Reference.com

Statcast

Monkey Bytes: September 5

Before delving into Wednesday’s high-leverage results, the Yankees announced they would be “creative” during save situations while giving Clay Holmes a break from his closer duties. For now, it’s anticipated there will be a match-up-based approach.

During the full slate of contests, relievers recorded five wins and secured five saves. Our condensed recaps cover all of the high-leverage events of interest.

Closer CliffsNotes

Justin Martinez (ARI) allowed two hits, two earned runs, and a walk while striking out in the bottom of the ninth against the Giants. He entered with a four-run lead, issuing Michael Conforto a walk, followed by Tyler Fitzgerald’s double and LaMonte Wade’s two-RBI single, before retiring the last three batters. He threw 19 pitches (11 strikes – 57.9 Strike%) and induced three whiffs (15.8 SwStr%). He’s given up at least a run in five of his last seven appearances.

  • Hierarchy remains: Justin Martinez | A.J. Puk | Ryan Thompson

Raisel Iglesias (ATL) recorded his 30th save while closing out a three-run win over Colorado. He allowed a walk and recorded a strikeout in a scoreless top of the ninth. This extended his scoreless streak to 20 games, spanning 23.1 innings with 28 strikeouts versus three walks.

  • Hierarchy remains: Raisel Iglesias | Joe Jiménez | Pierce Johnson

Kenley Jansen (BOS) walked on the wild side in a non-save outing. He allowed a hit, four earned runs, and three walks while striking out one in one-third of the eighth. He threw 28 pitches (13 strikes – 46.4 Strike%) and only induced two whiffs. He’s allowed a run in four of his last six outings with a 1.70 WHIP in his last 4.2 innings.

  • Hierarchy remains: Kenley Jansen | Chris Martin | Justin Slaten

Brent Suter (CIN) notched his first save in an eventual seven-run win. He worked 3.1 innings, allowing three hits, including Jon Singleton’s solo home run, and recorded six strikeouts. He threw 45 pitches (33 strikes – 73.3 Strike%) and produced ten whiffs (22.2 SwStr%). 

  • Hierarchy remains: Alexis Díaz | Emilio Pagán | Tony Santillan

Jason Foley (DET) suffered his fifth loss. He recorded two quick outs, intentionally walked Luis Arraez, then allowed Fernando Tatis’ walk-off RBI single, scoring the “place” runner. He threw eight pitches (75 Strike%) without a whiff during his two-thirds of the tenth inning in San Diego. 

  • Hierarchy remains: *Jason Foley | *Tyler Holton | Shelby Miller
  • *= closer-by-committee

Lucas Erceg (KC) retired the side and recorded a strikeout for his ninth save, closing out a three-run win over Cleveland. He threw 15 pitches (60 Strike%) and induced one whiff. This snapped a streak of three games in which he gave up at least a run and marked his first save since August 26.

  • Updated Hierarchy: Lucas Erceg | John Schreiber | Kribs Bubic

John McMillon (MIA) collected his first win on a walk-off rally in the bottom of the inning. He threw 13 pitches (10 strikes – 76.9 Strike%) and generated four whiffs (30.8 SwStr%) in a clean top of the tenth. He’s been scoreless in his last four appearances with six strikeouts versus one walk. Calvin Faucher suffered his second blown save, letting all three inherited runners score on a bases-loaded walk, an RBI fielder’s choice groundout, and James Woods’ RBI double in the top of the eighth. 

  • Hierarchy remains: Calvin Faucher | John McMillon | Jesús Tinoco

Joel Payamps (MIL) was tagged with his seventh loss. He allowed an unearned run and walked one during his two-thirds of the tenth. Hoby Milner let the “place” runner score on Luken Baker’s RBI single and recorded an inning-ending strikeout one-third of the tenth. 

  • Hierarchy remains: Devin Williams | Trevor Megill | Joel Payamps

Edwin Díaz (NYM) allowed a walk and recorded two strikeouts in a scoreless top of the ninth against Boston’s 6-7-8-9 hitters, finishing a five-run win. He warmed up for the save chance, but it evaporated when his teammates scored four in the bottom of the eighth. The good news is he’s been scoreless over his last four with nine strikeouts versus one walk while converting both save chances.

  • Hierarchy remains: Edwin Díaz | Phil Maton | Reed Garrett

Carlos Estévez (PHI) secured his 24th save with a scoreless ninth. He allowed a walk and recorded two strikeouts, preserving a two-run win in Toronto. He’s been scoreless in his last five outings, spanning six innings, with a win and three saves while posting a 6:2 K:BB. 

  • Hierarchy remains: Carlos Estévez | Jeff Hoffman | Matt Strahm

Jeremiah Estrada (SD) took over at the top of the tenth and issued Spencer Torkelson a walk with two outs during a scoreless appearance. He recorded his fifth win courtesy of a walk-off rally in the bottom of the inning. He threw 17 pitches (10 strikes – 58.8 Strike%) with three whiffs (17.6 SwStr%). Robert Suarez tossed a scoreless ninth, allowing a walk. He owns a modest three-game scoreless streak and has secured two saves this month. 

  • Hierarchy remains: Robert Suarez | Tanner Scott | Jason Adam

Ryan Fernandez (STL) secured his second save, issuing Jackson Chourio an intentional walk and recording three strikeouts in a scoreless bottom of the tenth in Milwaukee, preserving a one-run win. He threw 17 pitches (10 strikes – 58.8 Strike%) and produced five whiffs (29.4 SwStr%). Andrew Kittredge collected his third win. He tossed 1.2 scoreless frames, issuing a walk and striking out two. 

  • Hierarchy remains: Ryan Helsley | Andrew Kittredge | JoJo Romero

Kirby Yates (TEX) was summoned with two runners on, two outs, and a four-run lead. He induced a game-ending Giancarlo Stanton lineout for his 26th save. He’s been scoreless in six of his last seven games, recording two wins and converting five saves with nine strikeouts against two walks across 6.1 innings.

  • Hierarchy remains: Kirby Yates | David Robertson | Andrew Chafin

Derek Law (WSH) retired Nick Fortes but gave up Xavier Edwards’ walk-off RBI single, scoring the “place” runner, resulting in his third loss in the bottom of the tenth. Kyle Finnegan was tagged with his fifth blown save. He took over with two runners on base in the eighth and allowed Jake Burger’s game-tying RBI single, then recorded an inning-ending strikeout. He navigated around two hits for a scoreless ninth, finishing 1.1 scoreless innings.

  • Hierarchy remains: Kyle Finnegan | Jacob Barnes | Jose Ferrer

Vulture Save Options for Thursday, September 5

  • Pierce Johnson (ATL): Iglesias and Jiménez have pitched in back-to-back games. 
  • Tanner Scott (SD): He’s also worked in three of the last four, but the team prefers providing Suarez with more rest in these situations. 
  • Ryan Thompson (ARI): Martinez and Puk have appeared on consecutive days.

Vulture Save Stashes for Friday, September 6

  • Matt Strahm (PHI): If Estévez and Hoffman pitch today, it will be two straight appearances. 
  • David Robertson (TEX): It will be consecutive outings if Yates pitches in tonight’s contest.

Three Takeaways

J-Mart and BAbip: In last night’s outing, Justin Martinez gave up two earned runs after issuing a lead-off walk and allowing two hits. He rebounded by retiring his last three batters faced. However, he’s given up at least a run in seven of his last 10 appearances and 13 hits over these 10.2 innings with a .462 batting average on balls in play (BAbip). He’s also allowed six walks resulting in a 1.78 WHIP in this sample. He’s still producing an 18.5 swinging strike percentage and a 63 percent contact rate allowed. His inflated BAbip should normalize but the 62.9 strike percentage must improve so his 5.14 ERA migrates toward his 3.14 SIERA in these contests. Here’s his rolling game chart reflecting the recent spike in BAbip: 

McMillon’s surging, but is it sustainable? After retiring the side and striking out two in the top of the tenth against the Nationals, John McMillon collected his first win on a walk-off rally. He’s been scoreless over his last four games allowing one baserunner on a walk and recording six strikeouts (35.7 K-BB%) across 4.1 innings. For the season, he throws his slider almost 62 percent of his pitches and it’s generated a 22.7 swinging strike percentage with a .126 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA). It’s been an elite pitch for him. However, his four-seam fastball has a negative K-BB percentage with a .385 xwOBA. Can he take the next step as a high-leverage option in this bullpen? Time will tell, but he’s worth watching over the last three-plus weeks.

Jansen’s end nearing in Beantown: Last night’s ugly non-save appearance line brings attention to a rough patch of outings by Kenley Jansen. He allowed four earned runs and three walks over one-third of the eighth innings in an eventual loss. He’s given up at least a run in four of his last six games resulting in a loss and a blown save while posting a 1.70 WHIP across 4.2 innings. This decline in production coincides with the pending return by the 2025 closer, Liam Hendriks. Will this open the door for shared saves over the last two weeks of the season? Stay tuned.

Roster Notes and Injury Updates

  • The Cubs placed Jorge López (groin) on the 15-day injured list, which paves the way for Porter Hodge as the closer over the next two weeks.
  • On Friday, Victor Vodnik (COL) begins his rehab assignment at Double-A Hartford. He could be activated later this weekend or early next week, barring a setback.
  • Andrés Muñoz (SEA) was unavailable on Tuesday but played catch before last night’s game and was presumed available. Monitor his health status and outings closely this weekend.

Those seeking full game recaps should surf the team pages; they’ve all been updated with Wednesday’s results.

Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community. Stay safe and be well.

Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

Baseball-Reference.com

Statcast

Monkey Bytes: September 4

Tuesday’s 13-game slate resulted in five wins recorded by relievers and four securing saves. Two games required extra innings, and two ended in walk-off rallies at the bottom of the ninth. Our condensed recaps cover yesterday’s high-leverage events of interest.

Closer CliffsNotes

Justin Martinez (ARI) took over at the bottom of the eighth with two outs and two runners on. He let one score on a single before recording an inning-ending strikeout. Returning for the ninth, he held on for his eighth save, giving up a lead-off single and a one-out Heliot Ramos double while preserving a one-run win. Martinez finished with three hits, an earned run, and three strikeouts over his 1.1 innings. 

  • Hierarchy remains: Justin Martinez | A.J. Puk | Ryan Thompson

Raisel Iglesias (ATL) shut the door on his 29th save. He retired the side and recorded one strikeout against the Rockies, completing a combined shutout. He extended his MLB-leading scoreless streak to 22.1 innings, producing 26 strikeouts against two walks with a minuscule 0.27 WHIP. In this outing, he threw 12 pitches (7 strikes – 58.3 Strike%) without a whiff. 

  • Hierarchy remains: Raisel Iglesias | Joe Jiménez | Pierce Johnson

Lucas Erceg (KC) made his first appearance since injuring his finger on August 29. He allowed two hits, three earned runs, and hit a batter while recording two strikeouts over two-thirds of the eighth. James McArthur let all three inherited runners score, issuing a walk and allowing Steven Kwan’s two-RBI single during his one-third of the eighth.

  • Updated Hierarchy: Lucas Erceg | John Schreiber | James McArthur

Roansy Contreras (LAA) suffered his fourth loss taking over at the top of the tenth. He let the “place” runner score on a one-out Miguel Rojas single, intentionally walked Shohei Ohtani with two outs, and allowed Mookie Betts’ three-run home run before being removed. He finished with two hits, four runs (three earned), and a walk while recording two outs. Ben Joyce retired the side and recorded two strikeouts against the 4-5-6 lineup pocket, including the fastest pitch on a strikeout in the Statcast era. He extended his scoreless streak to seven games with ten strikeouts against zero walks over his last eight innings.

  • Hierarchy remains: Ben Joyce | Hunter Strickland | José Quijada

Michael Kopech (LAD) collected his fifth win after firing a clean bottom of the ninth against the Angels, courtesy of a four-run rally at the top of the tenth. He threw 12 pitches (66.7 Strike%) and induced two whiffs (16.7 SwStr%) versus the 4-5-6 lineup pocket. He’s been scoreless in 14 of his 15 appearances since his acquisition, posting three wins and converting three saves with 20 strikeouts against four walks over 15.1 innings.

  • Hierarchy remains: *Michael Kopech | *Evan Phillips | Anthony Banda
  • *= closer-by-committee

Elvis Peguero (MIL) suffered his fourth loss. He entered at the top of the 12th, giving up a hit, three runs (one earned), and a walk while striking out two. Devin Williams fired a clean ninth and recorded two strikeouts on an efficient 14 pitches (71.4 Strike%) with four whiffs (28.6 SwStr%).

  • Hierarchy remains: Devin Williams | Trevor Megill | Joel Payamps

Clay Holmes (NYY) suffered his MLB-leading 11th blown save on Wyatt Langford’s walk-off grand slam. He allowed a Carson Kelly single, a stolen base by pinch-runner Leody Taveras, followed by consecutive walks ahead of the home run, resulting in his fifth loss. Holmes threw 25 pitches (48 Strike%) and induced one whiff during his one-third of the ninth. He’s firmly affixed on the “hot seat.” 

  • Hierarchy remains: Clay Holmes | Tommy Kahnle | Luke Weaver

Hogan Harris (OAK) logged three scoreless frames, taking the baton from J.T. Ginn against Seattle, and collected his third win courtesy of a walk-off rally in the bottom of the ninth. Harris allowed two walks and recorded two strikeouts on 37 pitches (22 strikes – 59.5 Strike%) with five whiffs (13.5 SwStr%).

  • Hierarchy remains: Mason Miller | Tyler Ferguson | Michel Otañez

Matt Strahm (PHI) held on for his second save. He allowed Leo Jiménez’s two-out solo home run and recorded two strikeouts, closing a one-run win in Toronto. He threw 21 pitches (12 strikes – 57.1 Strike%) and induced four whiffs (19 SwStr%). Orion Kerkering worked a scoreless eighth, yielding a hit and collecting his fourth win.

  • Hierarchy remains: Carlos Estévez | Jeff Hoffman | Matt Strahm

David Bednar (PIT) retired the side and recorded a strikeout, finishing a combined shutout in a non-save capacity. He threw nine pitches (77.8 Strike%) and produced two whiffs (22.2 SwStr%). He’s recorded consecutive clean outings since being removed from the closer role.

  • Hierarchy remains: *Aroldis Chapman | *Dennis Santana | Kyle Nicolas
  • *= closer-by-committee

Trent Thornton (SEA) issued a one-out walk, gave up Shea Langeliers’ single, and a walk-off Seth Brown RBI single in the bottom of the ninth in Oakland, resulting in his third loss. 

  • Hierarchy remains: Andrés Muñoz | Collin Snider | Austin Voth

Ryan Helsley (STL) logged his second multiple-inning outing of the season. He suffered his fourth blown save at the bottom of the 11th and collected his seventh win after working a clean bottom of the 12th. He matched his season-high, throwing 27 pitches (22 strikes – 81.5 Strike%) and generating six whiffs (22.2 Strike%). He allowed a hit and an unearned run while striking out four over two innings.

  • Hierarchy remains: Ryan Helsley | Andrew Kittredge | JoJo Romero

Garrett Cleavinger (TB) recorded a one-out save, stranding two runners after inducing a game-ending groundout and preserving a one-run win over the Twins. Edwin Uceta gets credit for his fifth hold. He allowed two hits and recorded two strikeouts at the top of the ninth before getting pulled.  

  • Hierarchy remains: *Manuel Rodríguez | *Edwin Uceta | *Garrett Cleavinger
  • *=  closer-by-committee

Walter Pennington (TEX) collected his first major league win after issuing a walk and recording one out in the top of the ninth, stranding a runner. He benefited from his team’s walk-off grand slam in the bottom of the inning. 

  • Hierarchy remains: Kirby Yates | David Robertson | Andrew Chafin

Chad Green (TOR) suffered his second blown save in his last two games. He took over with a one-run lead at the top of the ninth and gave up three consecutive hits, including Kyle Schwarber’s go-ahead three-run home run. Green bounced back with back-to-back strikeouts before being removed but was tagged with his fifth loss.

  • Hierarchy remains: Chad Green | Génesis Cabrera | Erik Swanson

Vulture Save Options for Wednesday, September 4

  • Andrew Kittredge (STL): Helsley worked two innings and matched his season-high with 27 pitches yesterday.
  • Luke Weaver (NYY): Holmes has appeared in two straight, and Weaver was warming during last night’s blown save.

Vulture Save Stash for Thursday, September 5

  • Pierce Johnson (ATL): If Iglesias and Jiménez pitch today, it will be consecutive outings.

Three Takeaways

  • “The Good:” Preserving a tied game at the top of the ninth, Ben Joyce retired the side and recorded two strikeouts against the Dodgers’ 4-5-6 lineup pocket. He’s been scoreless over his last seven games, spanning eight innings, with ten strikeouts and no walks with a 0.63 WHIP. Since August 16, he ranks sixth in swinging strike percentage (23.9), tied for ninth in contact rate allowed (58.5 percent), and 11th in SIERA (1.36) among his peers. 
  • “The Bad:” For a second straight appearance, Chad Green suffered a blown save, allowing a go-ahead three-run home run last night. He converted his first 16 save chances this season but may be fatigued. He only logged 27 innings between 2022 and 2023 and has 46.1 innings after Tuesday’s outing. This may be a blip, but monitor his strikeout rate and contact allowed over the last four weeks of the season:
  • “The Ugly:” It’s tough quantifying 11 blown saves by Clay Holmes. His underlying data suggests it’s part bad luck and tough timing. However, how many more times can his team palate these outings? Last night, he struggled with his sinker location, which fueled the walk-off grand slam. His ground ball has declined slightly, and his home run per fly ball percentage has increased, but his meltdowns are usually when he lacks command. The hardest part is that there’s no clear option to replace him, which makes this situation more difficult down the stretch:

Those seeking full game recaps should surf the team pages; they’ve all been updated with Tuesday’s results.

Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community. Stay safe and be well.

Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

Baseball-Reference.com

Statcast

Monkey Bytes: September 3

Monday’s slate featured 11 games, with relievers securing seven saves and recording four wins. The save came in various ways, including a one-out save by the Reds (Justin Wilson) and a three-inning save by Cole Irvin of the Orioles. This will be a unique week for usage patterns, with teams receiving different off days, including yesterday, today, and Thursday. Our condensed game recaps highlight yesterday’s high-leverage events of interest.

Closer CliffsNotes

Cole Irvin (BAL) logged a three-inning save, closing out a 10-run win over the White Sox. It’s his first of the season and the second of his major league career. He allowed two hits and an earned run while striking out two. 

  • Hierarchy remains: Seranthony Domínguez | Yennier Cano | Cionel Pérez

Jorge López (CHC) was summoned at the top of the eighth to protect a 3-0 lead. However, he allowed four hits, including two home runs and four earned runs, while recording one out, resulting in his third loss and a first blown save. 

  • Updated Hierarchy: Porter Hodge | Jorge López | Drew Smyly

Justin Wilson (CIN) induced a game-ending lineout by Yordan Alvarez for his second save, retiring his only batter faced; Emilio Pagán did the heavy lifting, allowing a hit and striking out three over 2.1 scoreless frames. 

  • Hierarchy remains: Alexis Díaz | Emilio Pagán | Tony Santillan

Emmanuel Clase (CLE) recorded his 41st save with a clean bottom of the ninth, preserving a two-run win in Kansas City. He’s converted 28 consecutive save chances since May 20 with 31 strikeouts against six walks and has been scoreless in ten of his last 11 appearances.

  • Hierarchy remains: Emmanuel Clase | Hunter Gaddis | Cade Smith

Jhoan Durán (MIN) nailed down his 21st save with a clean bottom of the ninth and recorded one strikeout. He’s been scoreless over his last three appearances, securing a save in each. Jorge Alcala collected his fourth win, logging 1.1 scoreless innings, scattering two hits and striking out three.

  • Hierarchy remains: Jhoan Durán | Griffin Jax | Cole Sands

Phil Maton (NYM) notched his third save and first as a Met, firing a clean top of the ninth while striking out two. He’s been scoreless in 10 of his last 11.

  • Hierarchy remains: Edwin Díaz | Phil Maton | Reed Garrett

Tyler Ferguson (OAK) took over a tied game at the top of the ninth and retired Seattle’s 9-1-2 hitters by striking out the side on 12 pitches. He collected his third win courtesy of a walk-off home run in the bottom of the inning. 

  • Hierarchy remains: Mason Miller | Tyler Ferguson | Michel Otañez

Dennis Santana (PIT) preserved a comeback win against the Cubs by retiring the side and striking out one for his third save, his first as a Pirate. He’s been scoreless over his last 11 appearances, spanning 14 innings, with 15 strikeouts against one walk. Aroldis Chapman matched up against the top of the lineup and tossed a scoreless eighth, allowing a walk on 15 pitches (60 Strike%) without a whiff for his 22nd hold.

  • Hierarchy remains: *Aroldis Chapman | *Dennis Santana | Kyle Nicolas
  • *= closer-by-committee

Robert Suarez (SDP) shut the door on his 31st save, tossing a scoreless top of the ninth and completing a combined shutout of the Tigers. He’s converted both saves with scoreless outings in September, and the Padres are now 52-3 in the 55 games he’s pitched in.

  • Hierarchy remains: Robert Suarez | Tanner Scott | Jason Adam

Austin Voth (SEA) entered a tied game at the bottom of the ninth in Oakland and suffered his fifth loss. He gave up Shea Langeliers’ walk-off home run leading off the inning. 

  • Hierarchy remains: Andrés Muñoz | Collin Snider | Austin Voth

Vulture Save Options for Tuesday, September 3

  • Edwin Uceta (TB): Rodrìguez has pitched in back-to-back games. 
  • Caleb Thielbar (MIN): Durán, Jax, and Sands appeared in the previous two games. 

Vulture Save Stash for Wednesday, September 4

  • Hunter Gaddis (CLE): If Clase pitches today, it will be consecutive outings, though with Thursday as an off day, he may work three in a row. 

Three Takeaways

  • Porter on tap: Although he did not receive the save opportunity, Porter Hodge was in line for the ninth inning when Jorge López took over the top of the eighth against Pittsburgh with a three-run lead. Although Craig Counsell did not name a replacement for Héctor Neris in save situations, Hodge has recorded two since he was released. He’s been scoreless over 11 outings since August 4 with 19 strikeouts versus five walks (32.6 K-BB%) and a 0.83 WHIP across 12 innings. One would prefer his walk rate (11.6 percent), so fantasy managers should monitor his strike percentage through the end of the season, but he’s emerging as the preferred save option. 
  • Santana records his first save for Pittsburgh: On the other side of this contest, manager Derek Shelton maintained it would be a closer-by-committee after the team removed David Bednar from the closer role, and he used Aroldis Chapman in the bottom of the eighth after rallying for a one-run lead. Chapman worked around a walk and retired Cody Bellinger on an inning-ending flyout. Reding the tea leaves, it appears that the southpaw reliever will go against Bellinger’s lineup pocket in this series, which resulted in Dennis Santana securing his first save as a Pirate. However, he’s been very good in recent outings and extended his scoreless streak to 11 games with a clean bottom of the ninth. Since August 8, he’s allowed three bases runners (two hits and one walk) of 43 batters faced while racking up 15 strikeouts (32.6 K-BB%), resulting in a minuscule 0.21 WHIP and a 1.99 SIERA. It’s tough believing in short samples, but he’s on a heater, as his rolling game chart illustrates:
  • Adam-to-Scott-to-Suarez: While watching the Dodgers game earlier in the day, Orel Hershisher spoke about the regular season being measured by series, but the playoffs get broken down into at-bats. During the Padres’ combined shutout of Detroit, it deployed its high-leverage triumvirate: Jason Adam in the seventh, Tanner Scott in the eighth, and Robert Suarez in the ninth. This can fluctuate based on hitter-handedness in the seventh and eighth innings. Still, a clear pattern has emerged since the trade deadline, and it appears A.J. Preller’s plan on reducing games to six innings may translate into postseason success, especially when viewing the Win Probability Added results over the last 30 days:

Those seeking full game recaps should surf the team pages; they’ve all been updated with Monday’s results.

Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community. Stay safe and be well.

Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

Baseball-Reference.com

Statcast

Monkey Bytes: September 2

Happy Labor Day! Here’s hoping you enjoy quality time with family and friends. As for Sunday’s games, eight relievers recorded a win and six secured saves. The slate ended with an extra-inning battle between Atlanta and Philadelphia, with the Phillies winning on a walk-off rally in the bottom of the 11th, handing Carlos Estévez his third win. It also featured Ben Joyce securing his fourth save while working on consecutive days. Our condensed recaps cover all of yesterday’s high-leverage events of interest, and our What to Watch For sets the plate for the first week of September.

Closer CliffsNotes

  • Aaron Bummer (ATL) gave up a walk and left with runners on the corners in the bottom of the 11th. He suffered his third loss when Grant Holmes allowed Nick Castellanos’ walk-off RBI single. Raisel Iglesias worked two scoreless frames, giving up a walk and striking out three. 
  • Hierarchy remains: Raisel Iglesias | Joe Jiménez | Pierce Johnson
  • Rich Hill (BOS) entered a tied game at the bottom of the fifth but gave up a walk, and Spencer Torkelson’s go-ahead two-run home run resulted in his first loss. 
  • Hierarchy remains: Kenley Jansen | Chris Martin | Justin Slaten
  • Alexis Díaz (CIN) retired the side in the top of the 11th and collected his second win following a walk-off rally in the bottom of the inning. After a rough August, which featured two losses and three saves in five chances, the Reds’ closer would benefit from a strong finish to ensure his role in 2025. 
  • Hierarchy remains: Alexis Díaz | Emilio Pagán | Tony Santillan
  • Jason Foley (DET) nailed down his 20th save with a clean ninth and one strikeout, preserving a three-run win over Boston. He’s been scoreless in his last eight outings while converting all five save chances since August 14. 
  • Hierarchy remains: *Jason Foley | *Tyler Holton | Shelby Miller
  • *= closer-by-committee
  • Ben Joyce (LAA) preserved a one-run lead by navigating around a lead-off single with a double play groundout and a game-ending strikeout. He extended his scoreless streak to six games, and he’s recorded a win while converting three saves with eight strikeouts against zero walks in his last seven innings.
  • Hierarchy remains: Ben Joyce | Hunter Strickland | José Quijada
  • Calvin Faucher (MIA) fired a clean bottom of the ninth while striking out the side and recording his sixth save. Since August 3, he’s been scoreless in ten of 12 appearances, converting all six save chances with 18 strikeouts versus four walks over 12 innings.
  • Updated Hierarchy: Calvin Faucher | John McMillon | Jesús Tinoco
  • Bryse Wilson (MIL) logged an extended outing, working 3.2 innings but suffered his fourth loss when the “place” runner scored on a ricocheted comebacker in the bottom of the 11th in Cincinnati. He allowed two hits and an unearned run while striking out two. 
  • Hierarchy remains: Devin Williams | Trevor Megill | Joel Payamps
  • Jhoan Durán (MIN) preserved a one-run win over the Blue Jays and recorded his 20th save. He worked around a hit batter and struck out one. He’s been scoreless in his last two outings, recording a save in each, but last worked a clean inning on August 15.
  • Hierarchy remains: Jhoan Durán | Griffin Jax | Cole Sands
  • Edwin Díaz (NYM) shut the door on his 16th save with a clean bottom of the ninth while striking out the side. After consecutive losses, he’s leaned into his four-seam fastball and been scoreless in his last three appearances, striking out seven of nine batters.
  • Hierarchy remains: Edwin Díaz | Phil Maton | Reed Garrett
  • Mason Miller (OAK) allowed Jace Jung’s walk-off three-run home run, resulting in his second loss. After giving up a hit in a scoreless ninth, Miller returned for the tenth, allowing two hits, four runs (three earned), and a walk while striking out one. This marked his 12th multiple-inning appearance and third-highest pitch total of the season. 
  • Hierarchy remains: Mason Miller | Tyler Ferguson | Michel Otañez
  • Carlos Estévez (PHI) collected his third win on a walk-off rally in the bottom of the 11th. He worked two clean frames, stranding both “place” runners while striking out two. After a slow start since his acquisition, he’s been scoreless over his last five with a win and two saves. 
  • Hierarchy remains: Carlos Estévez | Jeff Hoffman | Matt Strahm
  • Robert Suarez (SD) held on for his 30th save, navigating around a hit and a walk for a scoreless ninth, preserving a one-run win in Tampa Bay. He’s converted 30 of 32 save opportunities this season but has allowed a run in four of his last nine appearances. Tanner Scott collected his ninth win. He gave up a hit and a walk while striking out two in a scoreless bottom of the eighth.
  • Hierarchy remains: Robert Suarez | Tanner Scott | Jason Adam
  • JoJo Romero (STL) stranded two runners in the sixth and logged 1.1 scoreless innings, allowing a hit and a walk while striking out three. He collected his sixth win after his teammates rallied for five runs in the top of the seventh. 
  • Hierarchy remains: Ryan Helsley | Andrew Kittredge | JoJo Romero
  • Manuel Rodríguez (TB) took over a tied game at the top of the ninth. His outing began with a walk and a single, followed by a go-ahead sacrifice fly, resulting in his fourth loss. 
  • Hierarchy remains: *Manuel Rodríguez | *Edwin Uceta | *Garrett Cleavinger
  • *= closer-by-committee
  • Matt Festa (TEX) gave up two runs (one earned) on two hits and recorded two strikeouts in the top of the tenth. Despite this, he collected his third win on a walk-off rally in the bottom of the inning.
  • Hierarchy remains: Kirby Yates | David Robertson | Andrew Chafin
  • Chad Green (TOR) took over with a two-run lead in the bottom of the eight. However, he not only had his five-game scoreless streak snapped, he suffered his fourth loss and a first blown save, giving up Royce Lewis’ go-ahead three-run home run. Hierarchy remains: Chad Green | Génesis Cabrera | Erik Swanson

Vulture Save Options for Monday, September 2

  • Emilio Pagán (CIN): Alexis Díaz has pitched in four of the previous five days. 
  • Phil Maton (NYM): Edwin Díaz has appeared in four of the last five games. 
  • Michel Otañez (OAK): Miller threw 34 pitches across a two-inning outing on Sunday. Tyler Ferguson could also be used, so this is a tougher dart throw. 

Vulture Save Stashes for Tuesday, September 3

  • Tyler Holton (DET): If Foley pitches today, it will be consecutive outings.

What to Watch For (September 2-through-8)

Arizona Diamondbacks -How does Justin Martinez fare in September? He took over the ninth inning in August, recording seven saves while logging 14.1 innings with a 24:7 K:BB (27 K-BB%) and a 1.33 WHIP. One would prefer less traffic on the bases, but his 2.56 SIERA, 17.8 swinging strike percentage, and 63.6 percent contact rate allowed insulate his success during high-leverage events. 

Boston Red Sox – Liam Hendriks has circled this weekend’s series against his former team for his return. With Kenley Jansen affixed as the closer, will the Red Sox ease Hendriks into a high-leverage role and provide him with save chances over the last two weeks of the season? Jansen will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year, while Hendriks is signed through the end of 2025. 

Chicago Cubs – Since designated Héctor Neris for assignment on August 20, Porter Hodge has recorded two saves, Jorge López one, and Keegan Thompson notched a one-out ancillary save. Fantasy managers prefer clarity and will monitor how the Cubs deploy Hodge and López in September. 

Chicago White Sox – Prelander Berroa retired six of seven batters faced, including five via strikeout, allowing only a walk against the Mets. He threw 39 pitches (24 strikes – 61.5 Strike%) and generated eight whiffs (20.5 SwStr%). He’s been inconsistent but has racked up ten strikeotus over his last five innings, giving up one earned run. If these trends continue, it should be worth finding out how he handles a save opportunity in a lost season. 

Cincinnati Reds – It’s been a bumpy season for Alexis Díaz and those with him on their fantasy rosters. Hope lies in his 1.23 second-half WHIP, but can he reestablish himself in the ninth inning? Over his last 14 games, he owns a 1-2 record while converting five of seven save chances with 12 strikeouts against four walks, but he’s also allowed eight runs (seven earned) through 12 innings. Over the last statistical year, he’s posted a 6.9 K-BB percentage and a 1.51 WHIP. 

Colorado Rockies -Although Tyler Kinley has converted his last two save opportunities and been scoreless in 19 of his last 22, he may be usurped in the bullpen hierarchy. Victor Vodnik threw a bullpen session at 80 percent on Saturday, and he’s slated for an “aggressive” bullpen session on Tuesday. If all goes well, he could be activated or work a rehab outing or two before his return. How he finishes the season will determine roles in 2025 for this leverage ladder. 

Los Angeles Angels – One of the biggest concerns regarding Ben Joyce as the closer of the future was workload management. He rarely recorded consecutive outings in college due to multiple-inning appearances. This year, he’s recorded four appearances on back-to-back days for the Angels and accomplished the feat two times at Double-A before his promotion. He’s appeared three times in the last four days, securing two saves and collecting a win while allowing three hits over 3.1 scoreless innings with four strikeouts. As he establishes himself in the closer role, fantasy players hope he will improve on his 9.9 swinging strike percentage and 1.21 WHIP since the All-Star break.

New York Mets – Taking his recent results with a grain of salt, since two saves happened against the White Sox, Edwin Díaz has changed his sequencing following a walk-off loss in Arizona on a hanging slider. In his last three appearances, he’s thrown 42 pitches, 35 four-seam fastballs, and only seven sliders. He’s retired all nine batters, seven via strikeout, while recording one save against Arizona and two versus the White Sox. Adjustments are constantly required in baseball, so it will be intriguing to see how his usage patterns evolve over the rest of September. 

Oakland A’s – Recency bias suggests Mason Miller has struggled in the second half after a walk-off three-run home run in Texas on his 34th pitch. He has seen a dip since the All-Star break, posting a 1.00 WHIP, a 21.1 K-BB percentage, and a 3.21 ERA versus a 3.13 SIERA. Through 12 games in the second half, he’s converted all eight save chances with 17 strikeouts versus five walks across 14 innings. Sustaining the gaudy numbers he produced in the first month was unrealistic, but his results during the remainder of the season will help project how he’s ranked among his peers entering 2025 drafts. 

Pittsburgh Pirates – Aroldis Chapman nailed down his fifth save, his first save since July 11, and he’s been scoreless in ten of his last 11 appearances with 20 strikeouts versus two walks across 11 innings. He should be the preferred save option in the interim. David Bednar did record a clean appearance on Sunday in a low-leverage outing against the 9-1-2-3 hitters of Cleveland, issuing Steven Kwan a walk but retiring the other three, including an inning-ending groundout by José Ramírez. There’s no timeline for Bednar’s removal from the closer role, but it will take more outings like this one and a few strikeouts with his secondary pitches before a return will be imminent.

San Diego Padres – His recent struggles with traffic and earned runs bring more attention to his performance than it should, especially after Robert Suarez recorded his career-best 30th save on Sunday. However, one does notice his 0.90 WHIP through 37.2 innings in the first half versus his 1.10 WHIP in 16.1 innings in the second half. It can be some bad luck, especially in strand rate, but he’s improved his swinging strike percentage and reduced contact allowed since the All-Star break, so this could be working through fatigue. He’s already reached a career-high in innings this season and is working in uncharted territory as the closer while his team fights for playoff positioning each game.

Those seeking full game recaps should surf the team pages; they’ve all been updated with Sunday’s results.

Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community. Stay safe and be well.

Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

Baseball-Reference.com

Statcast