Thursday’s small slate became smaller courtesy of two postponements, however, there were a couple high-leverage events of interest worth exploring, along with some bonus content with eyes on the weekend.
Oakland A’s – Slamming the door on his second save, Mason Miller faced the first three hitters in the Rangers lineup, retiring them in order, including two strikeouts, preserving a 1-0 win. He threw 16 pitches (13 strikes – 81.3 Strike%) and generated four whiffs (25 SwStr%). He owns a 1.29 WHIP with 12 strikeouts versus three walks through his first seven innings. Lucas Erceg secured his second hold, firing a clean eighth, and striking out one. Austin Adams stranded his only inherited runner while retiring both batters faced in the seventh.
Updated hierarchy: Mason Miller | Lucas Erceg | Austin Adams
Remaining with Miller for a moment, this outing was not only impressive because of the radar readings, but he dominated the defending World Champions in it. This season, he’s thrown 70 four-seam fastballs with 46 of them hitting 100 m.p.h. or higher (65.7 percent) per Statcast data. From yesterday’s outing, he averaged 102.3 m.p.h.:
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Referencing Brooks Baseball, he’s produced an 18.6 swinging strike percentage with his four-seam fastball and a 24.1 percent swinging strike rate with his slider. It’s a small sample size, but he owns a 12:3 K:BB (30 K-BB percentage) with a 19.8 swinging strike percentage, 66.7 strike percentage, and a 58.3 percent contact rate allowed. He’s one of seven qualified relievers with a K-BB percentage greater than 20, a swinging strike percentage of 15 or better, a strike percentage of at least 65 percent, and a contact rate allowed of 65 percent or lower. Health remains the last hurdle, but as a closer, he’s been terrific.
During the MASN broadcast, they announced last night’s game was the second in history during which two relievers with at least 400 saves appeared in the same contest. Kenley Jansen (423 career saves) and Craig Kimbrel (419 career saves) turned in scoreless outings in Thursday’s extra-inning game in Boston, joining Trevor Hoffman and Billy Wagner, who recorded the first such instance in a regular season game. Which segues into last night’s results.
Baltimore Orioles – Pitching on consecutive days, Craig Kimbrel collected his second win, retiring the side in order and striking out one in the bottom of the ninth. He threw 15 pitches (46.7 Strike%) without recording a whiff. He’s posted a 0.20 WHIP with eight strikeouts versus zero walks over five innings. Mike Baumann finished the contest, giving up an RBI double, and scoring the “place” runner during the tenth. Yennier Cano only faced one batter in the eighth but did not return for the ninth, perhaps with an eye on a save chance tomorrow. Danny Coloumbe suffered his first blown save, serving up a game-tying, pinch-hit home run over two-thirds of the eighth. Jacob Webb fired 1.1 clean frames, striking out one.
Hierarchy remains: Craig Kimbrel | Yennier Cano | Danny Coulombe
Boston Red Sox – Another rough outing for Isaiah Campbell, suffering his first loss, giving up four hits, including two home runs, six runs (five earned), and a walk, while striking out one in the top of the tenth. Kenley Jansen issued two walks and recorded a strikeout during his two-thirds of the ninth. He threw 19 pitches (7 strikes – 36.8 Strike%) and induced one whiff. He’s been hitless and scoreless through his first five outings but has a 7:7 K:BB over 4.2 innings. Greg Weissert was tagged with his first blown save, allowing an inherited runner to score while serving up a go-ahead home run by Anthony Santander. Joely Rodríguez gave up an unearned run and struck out one over two-thirds of the eighth for his third hold. Justin Slaten worked two scoreless frames, walking one and striking out one. He’s retired 23 of his last 24 batters faced.
Updated hierarchy: Kenley Jansen | Chris Martin | Justin Slaten
What to Watch For (Weekend Edition)
Chicago White Sox – Will Pedro Grifol take a page from Mark Kotsay and transition his best reliever into a more traditional one-inning role during save situations? Michael Kopech has converted two saves this year, both requiring two-inning outings, which require, on average, two days off afterward.
Hierarchy remains: Michael Kopech | Steven Wilson | Jordan Leasure
Kansas City Royals – Riding the wave of momentum, James McArthur has recorded his team’s last two saves, will this continue? One more linear pathway toward him in the ninth will remove the Royals’ current hierarchy classification.
Hierarchy remains: *James McArthur | *Will Smith | John Schreiber
* = closer-by-committee
Miami Marlins – Representing the last team with a save this season, Tanner Scott held on for his first during a traffic-infused 1.2-inning appearance against the Yankees during which he issued three walks. Command remains an issue for the southpaw this season, illustrated by his -10 K-BB percentage and 52.8 strike percentage. If this continues, Andrew Nardi will be worth tracking for future saves in this leverage ladder.
Hierarchy remains: Tanner Scott | Andrew Nardi | Anthony Bender
Philadelphia Phillies – Although it feels like I beat this phrase to death, the “floating closer” concept deployed by Rob Thomson relies on matching up his relievers by lineup pockets in the late innings, not a traditional pathway toward a save. José Alvarado leads the team with two saves, but Orion Kerkering will arrive this weekend, adding a high-octane option to the bullpen. He’s been hitting 98 m.p.h. during his rehab outings and the arsenal for being the “closer” of the future. Will he be used immediately in leverage events, pushing Jeff Hoffman into a “fireman” role earlier in the games? For now:
Hierarchy remains: *José Alvarado | *Jeff Hoffman | *Gregory Soto
* = closer-by-committee
Pittsburgh Pirates – Standing by his man, Derek Shelton said in a live radio interview on Thursday that if a save chance arose that evening, he would use David Bednar. It makes sense, he’s been terrific since arriving via trade from San Diego. Bednar’s underlying data suggests positive migration toward the mean. He owns a 12.46 ERA with a 2.01 SIERA and a 21.7 K-BB percentage. He deserves better outcomes, here’s hoping it happens for “The Renegade“.
Hierarchy remains (for now): David Bednar | Aroldis Chapman | Hunter Stratton
Texas Rangers – Bruce Bochy supported his closer, José Leclerc, saying it’s too early for a change in leverage roles. However, Leclerc converted one of two save opportunities but owns a 2.40 WHIP, -7.1 K-BB percentage, 56.6 strike percentage, and a career-low 8.8 swinging strike percentage. It’s a limited sample, but pressure mounts quickly for a struggling closer with his fanbase. Monitor this closely.
Hierarchy remains (for now): José Leclerc | Kirby Yates | David Robertson
Toronto Blue Jays – Both Erik Swanson (0.2 IP, 2 hits, one earned run, 70.6 strike percentage) and Jordan Romano (0.1 IP, hit, two walks, 44.4 strike percentage) made rehab outings for Buffalo on Thursday. Rushing their returns does not make sense, so they likely make at least one more appearance in the minors. Because this will transition the leverage ladder soon:
Current hierarchy: Chad Green | Yimi García | Génesis Cabrera
Projected hierarchy (*once they return): Jordan Romano | Erik Swanson | Yimi García (HLR)
Vulture Save Option on April 12
BAL: As mentioned above, Kimbrel has pitched in two straight games placing Yennier Cano in line for the save chance today—those streaming for holds, Keegan Akin.
Vulture Save Options for April 13
DET: With a doubleheader on tap, Shelby Miller, Andrew Chafin, or Alex Lange could receive an ancillary save chance. The Tigers will also play 14 games over the next 13 days, putting relievers like Tyler Holton on the radar for multi-inning outings, vulture wins, or an ancillary save.
MIN: If Brock Stewart pitches today, it will mark three outings in four days. Steven Okert recorded the last save and may be in play versus the Tigers’ lineup pocket against Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter if they hit in the ninth.
Closer Monkey’s filthy sequence of the day goes to, no surprise, Mason Miller, with video courtesy of the Pitching Ninja.
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