Monkey Bytes: July 25

Wednesday did not feature a doubleheader, with the second game in Atlanta being postponed, but it did provide nine reliever wins. Two were relievers replacing a struggling starter while their team held the lead (Adam Ottavino and Sam Moll), and one was in a bulk relief outing (Jakob Junis). There were only four saves, including Joel Payamps getting the vulture save, his first since April.

There’s a fine line in high-leverage events, which boxscores cannot always capture. Two such circumstances will be covered in today’s takeaways and when the Brewers’ bullpen hierarchy will receive a boost.

Three Takeaways

  • The Phillies’ rough road trip: Coming out of the All-Star break on the road, Philadelphia lost two games, during which it led by three runs. This was not the case on Wednesday, but Gregory Soto could have done better in his audition for a larger role in his team’s hierarchy. He was awarded the win on Tuesday despite uncorking a wild pitch and only throwing two strikes of his nine pitches. Yesterday, he suffered the loss, throwing another wild pitch and only six of his 12 pitches in the strike zone. Matt Gelb of The Athletic covered this topic and the team’s trade deadline modus operandi. Within the post, he suggested José Alvarado may retake his lost leverage role after his demotion, which represented a wakeup call. Because of the varied results over the last 30 days, the hierarchy has not been altered. As the weekend usage patterns unfold, and trade rumors gain traction, it will adapt. For now, this link displays the team’s Win Probability Added results from the last 30 days and this table with their results by reliever:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/FGWKH/1/

  • A missed call derails McArthur: One cannot sugarcoat James McArthur giving up five earned runs in a blown save meltdown, especially since he produced an average exit velocity of 101.1 m.p.h. among his six batted ball events. However, with one out and a full count, he issued a walk on a pitch in the strike zone, which affected his outing. It’s discussed in Anne Rogers’ game recap for MLB.com, along with quotes from his teammates standing by the reliever. It’s a fine line relievers walk in save situations, and with Hunter Harvey wriggling out of his own messy situation in the eighth, the Royals may be in the market for one more veteran with “closer” experience ahead of the deadline. For now, McArthur will be on watch for a hierarchy shift, and here’s the illustrator courtesy of Statcast on ball four:
  • D-Will’s timeline: Devin Williams may be on the precipice of rejoining the Brewers after making his third rehab appearance and second at Triple-A. He tossed a scoreless inning, issuing a walk and striking out two on 19 pitches (52.6 Strike%) with three whiffs (15.8 SwStr%). Although the team suggested he may require six to eight outings before returning, his recall may be expedited by team need and some positivity following Christian Yelich’s unfortunate back injury. Those hoping they can stash the talented closer should act sooner rather than later. His last hurdle may be pitching on consecutive days or two times in a three-day span unless the team sees his velocity last night as a sign of him being ready.

Next, our condensed game recaps cover Wednesday’s high-leverage events of interest.

Closer CliffsNotes

American League

Cleveland Guardians – Preserving a one-run win, Emmanuel Clase worked a scoreless top of the ninth, allowing a walk and striking out one for his 31st save. He threw 17 pitches (12 strikes – 70.6 Strike%) and induced one whiff against the Tigers’ 9-1-2-3 batters. He’s converted 18 straight save chances since May 20 and has been scoreless over his last four.

  • Hunter Gaddis collected his fourth win after firing a clean eighth, striking out the side on 12 pitches.
  • Tim Herrin retired both batters in the seventh.
  • Scott Barlow tossed 1.1 clean frames, striking out one.

Hierarchy remains: Emmanuel Clase | Hunter Gaddis | Scott Barlow

Kansas City Royals -Handed a one-run lead in the top of the ninth, James McArthur suffered his fourth loss and fifth blown save after being a strike away from preserving a win. He allowed a one-out Lourdes Gurriel Jr. single and a walk to Geraldo Perdomo, followed by Gabriel Moreno’s go-ahead two-RBI double. Corbin Carroll reached on an infield single, and Ketel Marte launched a three-run home run. McArthur finished with four hits allowed, five earned runs, and a walk while striking out one.

  • Hunter Harvey tossed a scoreless eighth, giving up a walk, and recorded his 27th hold.
  • Sam Long retired the side in the seventh, striking out one for his third hold.

Hierarchy remains (for now): James McArthur | Hunter Harvey | John Schreiber

Los Angeles Angels – Capping a come-from-behind win, Carlos Estévez nailed down his 20th save, retiring the side in Seattle. He threw nine pitches (77.8 Strike%) and induced one whiff against the 6-7-8 lineup pocket. This extends his scoreless streak to 18 games. He’s recorded a win and 13 saves with 15 strikeouts versus two walks across his last 18 innings.

  • Luis García notched his 11th hold, allowing a hit during a scoreless eighth.
  • Hans Crouse earned his fourth win. He allowed a hit and struck out two in a scoreless seventh, ahead of his team’s two-run rally in the top of the eighth.

Hierarchy remains: Carlos Estévez | Luis García | Ben Joyce

Minnesota Twins – Despite throwing 27 pitches last night, Jhoan Durán took over a tied game in the top of the ninth. He dispensed the top of the Phillies’ lineup in order and recorded a strikeout on 10 pitches (60 Strike%) with one whiff. He collected his sixth win courtesy of a walk-off rally in the bottom of the frame.

  • Cole Sands fired a clean eighth and recorded two strikeouts.
  • In his first appearance since May 1, Brock Stewart allowed a hit, an earned run, and a walk while striking out one.

Hierarchy remains: Jhoan Durán | Griffin Jax | Jorge Alcala

National League

Chicago Cubs – Tasked with the top of the ninth during a tied game, Héctor Neris suffered his third loss. He allowed Blake Perkins’ lead-off single and a one-out, William Contreras RBI double, resulting in the team’s 22nd loss in a one-run contest. This snapped Neris’ nine-game scoreless streak.

  • Mark Leiter Jr. tossed a clean eighth and struck out one.
  • Porter Hodge issued a walk and recorded two strikeouts in a scoreless seventh.
  • Tyson Miller was tagged with his first blown save, letting one of two inherited runners score while allowing two hits in two-thirds of the sixth.

Hierarchy remains: Héctor Neris | Mark Leiter Jr. | Porter Hodge

Miami Marlins – Not only did Tanner Scott record his 17th save with a scoreless ninth against the Orioles, but he’s completed a reliever no-hitter with nine straight hitless appearances, spanning 9.2 innings since June 27. He worked around a hit-batter with two strikeouts during the three-run win, throwing 15 pitches (66.7 Strike%) with two whiffs (13.3 SwStr%). He’s been scoreless over his last 15 games with 19 strikeouts against five walks.

  • A.J. Puk fired two clean frames while recording three strikeouts and collected his fourth win. He owns a 13-game scoreless streak with four wins and 22 strikeouts versus three walks across 15 innings.
  • Andrew Nardi notched his 11th hold, retiring the side and striking out two in the sixth.

Hierarchy remains: Tanner Scott | A.J. Puk | Calvin Faucher

Milwaukee Brewers – Recording his fifth save, and first since April 24, Joel Payamps fired a clean bottom of the ninth, preserving a one-run win over the Cubs. He threw 15 pitches (66.7 Strike%) and produced four whiffs (26.7 SwStr%). He’s on a five-game scoreless streak.

  • Jakob Junis collected his third win. He logged three scoreless innings, allowing a hit and a walk while striking out one, benefiting from his team’s rally in the top of the ninth.
  • Bryse Wilson worked four innings, giving up Seiya Suzuki’s solo home run and recording three strikeouts.

Hierarchy remains: Trevor Megill | Elvis Peguero | Bryan Hudson

Philadelphia Phillies – Vying for a larger leverage role, Gregory Soto was summoned into a tied contest in the bottom of the ninth. However, his command did him in. He hit Trevor Larnach, putting the lead-off hitter aboard, uncorked a wild pitch, moving him to second, and a sacrifice bunt got him to third with one out. Soto induced a groundball by Max Kepler, but it was up the middle and let the runner score for a walk-off rally, resulting in his fourth loss.

  • Jeff Hoffman tossed a scoreless eighth, allowing a hit and striking out two on 21 pitches (66.7 Strke%) with three whiffs (14.3 SwStr%).
  • Matt Strahm suffered his fifth blown save, letting all three inherited runners score on a fielder’s choice groundout and Carlos Santana’s two-RBI double.
  • Orion Kerkering gave up three earned runs on a hit batter and two walks during his one-third of the seventh but was credited with his tenth hold.

Hierarchy remains (for now): *Jeff Hoffman | *José Alvarado | Gregory Soto

*= floating closer

Vulture Save Options for Thursday, July 25

  • Cade Smith (CLE): Clase, Gaddis, and Barlow have all appeared in back-to-back contests.
  • A.J. Puk (MIA): Scott has pitched in two straight, and if the team’s showcasing for trade, what better way than Puk in a save chance?
  • David Robertson (TEX): If the team can give Kirby Yates an extra day off after working three straight, they should. If not, Robertson could be in line for Friday.
  • Ben Joyce (LAA): Estévez and García have appeared three times in the last four days. If they work again today, Joyce will be in line for Friday.

Vulture Save Option for Friday, July 26

*See above. Otherwise, it’s dependent on usage patterns today, with 14 teams receiving an off-day.

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Statcast

Monkey Bytes: July 24

Tuesday night’s 14 games featured six reliever wins and nine saves. There was a rainout, which means Atlanta and Cincinnati will play a doubleheader on today’s slate. There were two ancillary saves, including the first of the season by Matt Strahm.

Last night’s most common theme was command, which affected results by some key leverage relievers, covered in today’s takeaways.

Three Takeaways

  • Durán suffers his fifth loss: Entering a scoreless game in the top of the ninth, Jhoan Durán allowed a one-out Bryce Harper double, issued consecutive walks, and gave up a go-ahead Brandon Marsh sacrifice fly, followed by a two-RBI Nick Castellanos double. He was removed after giving up three runs and suffered his fifth loss. His final line was two hits, three earned runs, and two walks over two-thirds of an inning. He threw 27 pitches (11 strikes – 40.7 Strike%) and only induced one whiff. Before this appearance, Durán posted 16 strikeouts against four walks across 16 innings while recording five wins and converting five of six save chances. Rocco Baldelli stood by his closer in postgame comments, but he must command his arsenal better than this moving forward:
  • Did Hoffman issue two walks?: Before Durán’s outing in the ninth, Jeff Hoffman could not finish the eighth inning for the Phillies. He handed out two walks for the first time in any appearance this season and the first time since August 2 last year. He threw 20 pitches (55 Strike%) and induced three whiffs (15 SwStr%) against the Twins’ 9-1-2-3 lineup pocket before his removal. Although he’s been scoreless through seven games in July, he’s allowed four walks during his last 3.2 innings.
  • Dodgers call on Phillips?: Alex Vesia began his outing in the ninth with a four-run lead by issuing consecutive walks. He had allowed two walks against his previous 46 batters. After allowing an earned run and his pitch count rising, Evan Phillips took over for Vesia and walked Jorge Soler before getting a game-ending groundout for his 15th save. Suggesting Phillips is past his recent struggles would be premature, but he’s still in Dave Roberts’ trust tree and has been placed back into our updated bullpen hierarchy below.

Our condensed game recaps cover Tuesday’s high-leverage events of interest.

Also, we updated the reliever buy/sell posts with less than a week before the trade deadline:

Closer CliffsNotes

American League

Cleveland Guardians – Shutting the door on his American League-leading 30th save, Emmanuel Clase preserved a one-run while retiring the side against Detroit. He threw nine pitches (88.9 Strike%) without a whiff and has converted his last 17 save opportunities since May 20. His 116 saves since the start of 2022 leads all major league relievers.

  • Scott Barlow secured his 18th hold, allowing a hit and striking out one in a scoreless eighth.
  • Hunter Gaddis notched his 21st hold despite letting both inherited runners score on a sacrifice fly and his throwing error. He issued a walk during two-thirds of the seventh.
  • Nick Sandlin gave up a hit, two runs (one earned), and a walk while striking out one in one-third of the seventh.
  • Cade Smith collected his fifth win, logging 1.2 clean frames and recording three strikeouts.

Hierarchy remains: Emmanuel Clase | Hunter Gaddis | Scott Barlow

Tampa Bay Rays – Securing his 19th save, Pete Fairbanks retired the side, closing out a two-run win in Toronto. He threw 11 pitches (72.7 Strike%) without a whiff. He’s converted six straight save chances despite allowing a run in three outings.

  • Jason Adam recorded his 19th hold, firing a clean eighth and striking out one. Kevin Kelly tossed a clean seventh for his 12th hold.
  • Manuel Rodriguez was credited with his fourth hold, although he allowed two solo home runs in the sixth.
  • Tyler Alexander collected his third win, logging three scoreless frames as the “bulk follower,” scattering three hits and striking out four.

Hierarchy remains: Pete Fairbanks | Jason Adam | Colin Poche

Texas Rangers – Summoned for a third straight game, Kirby Yates retired both batters, one via strikeout, while recording his 18th save. He threw six pitches (83.3 Strike%) and induced one whiff (16.7 SwStr%). He’s converted seven saves in July with 13 strikeouts against three walks across 8.2 innings.

  • Josh Sborz gets credit for his sixth hold. He allowed Andrew Benintendi’s solo home run leading off the ninth and recorded a strikeout over two-thirds combined innings.

Hierarchy remains: Kirby Yates | David Robertson | José Leclerc

National League

Los Angeles Dodgers – With a three-run lead, two runners on, and two outs, the Dodgers called upon Evan Phillips to face Jorge Soler. Although he issued a walk loading the bases, he induced a game-ending LaMonte Wade Jr. groundout for his 15th save, his first since July 5. He threw nine pitches (33.3 Strike%) without a whiff.

  • Alex Vesia struggled with his command, walking the first two batters he faced and allowing an RBI single before recording two outs. He was removed after throwing 26 pitches (15 strikes – 57.7 Strike%) and only getting one whiff. He had issued two walks in his previous 46 batters faced over 12 games.
  • Blake Treinen secured his eighth hold, giving up a hit and a walk while striking out one in a scoreless eighth.
  • Brent Honeywell logged two scoreless frames, yielding a hit for his first hold.

Updated Hierarchy: *Daniel Hudson | *Alex Vesia | *Evan Phillips

*= closer-by-committee

Miami Marlins – Not only did Tanner Scott record his 17th save with a scoreless ninth against the Orioles, but he’s completed a reliever no-hitter with nine straight hitless appearances, spanning 9.2 innings since June 27. He worked around a hit-batter with two strikeouts during the three-run win, throwing 15 pitches (66.7 Strike%) with two whiffs (13.3 SwStr%). He’s been scoreless over his last 15 games with 19 strikeouts against five walks.

  • A.J. Puk fired two clean frames while recording three strikeouts and collected his fourth win. He owns a 13-game scoreless streak with four wins and 22 strikeouts versus three walks across 15 innings.
  • Andrew Nardi notched his 11th hold, retiring the side and striking out two in the sixth.

Hierarchy remains: Tanner Scott | A.J. Puk | Calvin Faucher

Milwaukee Brewers – Navigating around a lead-off single, Trevor Megill retired the next three hitters for a scoreless ninth, preserving a shutout during his 20th save. He threw 16 pitches (11 strikes – 68.8 Strike%) and induced two whiffs. He’s converted three of four save opportunities in July and been scoreless in five of seven appearances.

  • Jared Koenig worked around two hits and a walk for a scoreless eighth, hanging on for his fight hold.
  • Elvis Peguero collected his sixth win, tossing a clean seventh and striking out one.
  • Bryan Hudson worked a clean sixth, recording one strikeout.

Hierarchy remains: Trevor Megill | Elvis Peguero | Bryan Hudson

New York Mets – With limited bullpen options, Jake Diekman stepped up for his teammates. He posted his fourth save with a scoreless bottom of the ninth, preserving a one-run win over the Yankees. He navigated around a one-out Juan Soto walk with a strikeout of Aaron Judge and a game-ending ground-out by Ben Rice.

  • Phil Maton notched his 12th hold, walking one and striking out one in a scoreless eighth.
  • Dedniel Núñez secured his ninth hold, issuing a walk and striking out one in a scoreless seventh.
  • Alex Young retired two batters and stranded one for his fifth hold in the sixth.
  • Adam Ottavino gave up two hits and an earned run during his one-third of the sixth, getting credit for his 14th hold.

Hierarchy remains: Edwin Díaz | Dedniel Núñez | Phil Maton

Philadelphia Phillies – Capping a ninth-inning rally, Matt Strahm secured his first save. He retired the side and recorded two strikeouts in the bottom of the ninth against the Twins, throwing 11 pitches (63.6 Strike%) with two whiffs (18.2 SwStr%).

  • Gregory Soto collected his first win, issuing a walk and stranding two runners in the bottom of the eighth, retiring his only batter via a fielder’s choice groundout.
  • Jeff Hoffman issued two walks and recorded two strikeouts in the eighth but was removed after two outs. He remains unscored upon through seven appearances in July, but this outing represents the first time all year he’s allowed more than one walk.

Hierarchy remains: *Jeff Hoffman | *José Alvarado | Gregory Soto

*= floating closer

St. Louis Cardinals – Nailing down his MLB-leading 33rd save, Ryan Helsley preserved a one-run in Pittsburgh by striking out the side. He threw 13 pitches (9 strikes – 69.2 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (18.6 SwStr%). This represents his 17th clean save, leading all relievers this season.

  • Ryan Fernandez collected his first win. He induced an inning-ending groundball double play in the eighth and stranded a runner, ahead of his team taking the lead in the top of the ninth.
  • JoJo Romero suffered his fifth blown save, giving up two hits and an earned run during one-third of the eighth. Andrew Kittredge secured his 27th hold, retiring the side and striking out one in the seventh. 

Hierarchy remains: Ryan Helsley | Andrew Kittredge | JoJo Romero

Vulture Save Options for Wednesday, July 24

  • David Robertson (TEX): Yates has appeared in three straight games, leaving the veteran atop the hierarchy for today’s contest against the White Sox.
  • Jakob Junis (MIL): Megill has pitched in three of the last four days. Junis should be in line for a multiple-inning outing. He’s recorded two wins and a save through four outings in July. Joel Payamps may get the save chance, but it depends on how the late-innings progress.
  • Grant Holmes (ATL): Same idea as Junis, with a doubleheader on tap, he may absorb a multi-inning appearance with a shot at a vulture win or save finishing up a contest. Pierce Johnson could also be in play as the preferred vulture save chance if Atlanta can sweep Cincinnati.

Vulture Save Options for Thursday, July 25

  • Scott Barlow (CLE): If Clase and Gaddis pitch today, and Barlow does not, he would be in line for the save on Thursday.
  • A.J. Puk (MIA): If Scott appears today, Puk could get the vulture save chance on Thursday.

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2024 Trade Deadline Buy/Sell: National League

Updated: July 26, 2024

With days until the trade deadline (July 30), here are the latest playoff projections for the American League courtesy of Baseball-Reference:

Glossary:

BUY+: This reliever has a strong chance (50 percent or better) of becoming a closer after the trade deadline.

BUY: This reliever has a slight chance (at least 20 percent) of becoming a closer after the trade deadline.

SELL: This reliever has a slight chance (at least 20 percent) of losing the closer role by the trade deadline.

SELL+: This reliever has a strong chance (50 percent or higher) of losing the closer role by the trade deadline.

TL;DR – National League Relievers

BUY+: Andrew Nardi (MIA); Devin Williams (MIL); Victor Vodnik (COL)

BUY: Daniel Hudson (LAD); Robert Garcia (WSH); Fernando Cruz (CIN); Nick Mears (COL); Ryan Walker (SFG); Porter Hodge (CHC); Huascar Brazobán (MIA); Julian Merryweather (CHC)

SELL: José Alvarado (PHI); Kyle Finnegan (WSH); Héctor Neris (CHC); Alexis Díaz (CIN); Paul Sewald (ARI); Jalen Beeks (COL); Camilo Doval (SFG); Evan Phillips (LAD)

SELL+: Tanner Scott (MIA); Trevor Megill (MIL)

In case you missed it, our First Half in Review for Relievers covers leaders for saves, holds, SOLDS, and underlying metrics for the first half and the last 365 days. Our American League version was also updated on Tuesday, July 23.

National League East

Atlanta Braves—Spending the offseason building depth through the leverage ladder has paid off, and there is no clear need for this bullpen before the trade deadline. However, an upgrade will not be passed over, though it’s likely a promotion from within, not via trade.

BUY: None; Sell: None

Miami Marlins – Open for business, the Marlins will be selling relievers. The biggest question here is, how many will be traded? Pending free agent Tanner Scott will bring the biggest return, but will they also move Declan Cronin, Calvin Faucher, and others? How many relievers get moved may depend on how the teams on the fence handle their relievers in what has been a slow-moving market. 

*Already traded A.J. Puk to Arizona.

BUY+: Andrew Nardi; BUY: Huascar Brazobán; SELL+: Tanner Scott

New York Mets – After finishing the first half with a flurry, the team has turned its season around. It also may have found two relievers for the stretch run out of necessity in Dedniel Núñez and José Buttó. Getting one more solid reliever, especially an upgrade over Jake Diekman, would help this team’s postseason chances. Fantasy managers will also be curious how Edwin Díaz finishes the season, which will determine his price point in drafts next season. 

BUY: None; SELL: None

Philadelphia Phillies – Keeping the starting pitchers rested and the bullpen healthy for the postseason will be at the forefront of this team’s thoughts for the second half. Since Tyler Phillips and Spencer Turnbull could make multiple-inning outings over the last two-plus months, getting one more leverage option for the late innings makes sense. How big depends on Dave Dombrowski. Even if they trade for a veteran with “closer” experience, the team’s “floating closer” strategy may remain in place. Per Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Phillies have been linked to Carlos Estévez, Tanner Scott, and Kyle Finnegan in his latest post.

*Traded Seranthony Domínguez to Baltimore for Austin Hays, perhaps opening a bullpen spot for a future move.

Stay tuned.

BUY: None; SELL: José Alvarado

Washington Nationals – It’s tough threading the needle of maximizing return on players under team control through next year while fielding a team that can compete in 2025. This faces the Nationals’ front office. Should the team move Kyle Finnegan, especially if Texas does not become a seller? If he is traded, and Jose A. Ferrer can return to past form, Robert Garcia could be a sneaky play for saves in August.

BUY: Robert Garcia; SELL: Kyle Finnegan

National League Central

Chicago Cubs – Part of the decision process on how the team handles the trade deadline will depend on the bevy of relievers on the mend. Julian Merryweather has been activated but has not appeared as of this writing. He could be back by next weekend. Adbert Alzolay hopes he can return, plus Caleb Kilian could log important relief outings over the last two months. If they sell, Héctor Neris will be a free agent at the end of the season, making him expendable. He does have a contract stipulation worth noting:

BUY: Porter Hodge, Julian Merryweather; SELL: Héctor Neris

Cincinnati Reds – Getting a solid second half out of Alexis Díaz may be the best-case scenario for this fragile leverage ladder. If his struggles continue, especially with traffic on the bases, the team may be forced to move him out of save situations. Monitor his results closely. He was featured in Three Takeaways on July 23. As for the Reds, they remain on the fence ahead of the trade deadline, though Baltimore has been linked to trade interest for Nick Martinez.

BUY: Fernando Cruz; SELL: Alexis Díaz

Milwaukee Brewers – It’s been a terrific run, but those who have Trevor Megill on their roster should be planning on potential replacements ahead of the trade deadline. He may record ancillary saves once Devin Williams returns, but he will slot into the eighth inning, making this good bullpen even better.

BUY+: Devin Williams; SELL+: Trevor Megill

Pittsburgh Pirates – It appears the team may add ahead of the deadline. Still, its focus will be on hitters and a potential starting pitcher, not necessarily the bullpen, which continues to get healthier. A returning Ryan Borucki and Hunter Stratton may be this team’s biggest leverage ladder additions.

BUY: None; SELL: None

St. Louis Cardinals – Closer Ryan Helsley combined to share in 70 percent of his team’s 50 victories in the first half with 32 saves and three wins. His 17 clean saves (three batters faced) leads all MLB relievers, and he became the eighth pitcher with 32 saves before the All-Star break, first since Edwin Díaz (36 in 2018). As great as this sounds, the team needs some depth ahead of the trade deadline. Andrew Kittredge has already logged 47 appearances, his most since 57 games in 2021. JoJo Romero ended the first half tied for the major league lead in holds (26). However, he’s produced a 0.00 ERA on one-day rest this year (13.1 innings) versus a 6.30 ERA on zero days rest (10 innings). 

BUY: None; SELL: None

National League West

Arizona Diamondbacks – Mike Hazen has reported the team will be buying ahead of the trade deadline, so it appears Paul Sewald will remain the closer through the end of the season. Making a move, the Diamondbacks have traded for A.J. Puk, and he immediately slots into our adjusted bullpen hierarchy. He will be under team control through the end of 2026 and could earn a save share if Sewald’s struggles persist into August. Stay tuned.

BUY: A.J. Puk; SELL: Paul Sewald

Colorado Rockies—If they can move Jalen Beeks, the team will do so. Focusing on relievers capable of operating in Coors with velocity and an arsenal suited for the ballpark would help moving forward. Victor Vodnik emerged with three saves in July and may become the de facto closer after the trade deadline. Keep tabs on Nick Mears; his arsenal suits Coors well.

BUY+: Victor Vodnik; Buy: Nick Mears; SELL: Jalen Beeks

Los Angeles Dodgers – Although Dave Roberts supports Evan Phillips, his recent outings do not give fantasy managers confidence. Daniel Hudson has recorded a save in his last four appearances, taking over the top spot in our adjusted hierarchy. How the Dodgers handle the trade deadline may provide the second-half blueprint for the leverage roles, but for now, they seem fluid.

BUY: Daniel Hudson; SELL: Evan Phillips

San Diego Padres – Anchoring his bullpen’s hierarchy, Robert Suarez has recorded five saves requiring four or more outs this season. His team has won 37 of 39 games he’s appeared in, and he’s only nine innings for tying his career MLB high in a season. Jeremiah Estrada has already thrown 45.1 innings across Triple-A and the majors this season; his career-high is only 54 innings set in 2022. If the Padres plan on contending for a spot in the postseason, they will need a reliever or two before the deadline lapses. 

BUY: None; SELL: None

San Francisco Giants – On the positive side, the team has one of the easiest remaining strengths of schedules while getting starting pitchers back. This could fuel a run. However, Camilo Doval‘s inflated WHIP (1.605) places him on watch at the onset of the second half. If Doval’s struggles continue into August, Ryan Walker may earn some save chances in the second half.

BUY: Ryan Walker; SELL: Camilo Doval

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Statcast

2024 Trade Deadline Buy/Sell: American League

Updated: July 26, 2024

With days remaining until the trade deadline (July 30), here are the latest playoff projections for the American League courtesy of Baseball-Reference:

Glossary:

BUY+: This reliever has a strong chance (50 percent or better) of becoming a closer after the trade deadline.

BUY: This reliever has a slight chance (at least 20 percent) of becoming a closer after the trade deadline.

SELL: This reliever has a slight chance (at least 20 percent) of losing the closer role by the trade deadline.

SELL+: This reliever has a strong chance (50 percent or higher) of losing the closer role by the trade deadline.

TL;DR – American League Relievers

BUY+: Ben Joyce (LAA)

BUY: Jason Adam (TBR): Hunter Harvey (KCR); Tyler Ferguson (OAK)

SELL: Pete Fairbanks (TBR); Clay Holmes (NYY); Chad Green (TOR); James McArthur (KCR); Mason Miller (OAK); Kenley Jansen (BOS)

SELL+: Michael Kopech (CHW); Carlos Estévez (LAA)

In case you missed it, our First Half in Review for Relievers covers leaders for saves, holds, SOLDS, and underlying metrics for the first half and the last 365 days.

American League East

Baltimore Orioles – With eyes on a repeat of a postseason berth, the Orioles will be buyers ahead of the trade deadline. Though its main focus will be on starting pitching, getting a veteran reliever capable of setting up in high-leverage situations will also be on the team’s radar. Reports have speculated that the team will get Tanner Scott back from Miami, and a left-handed reliever makes sense, given the timeline for Danny Coulombe‘s injury. How Craig Kimbrel pitches early in the second half will determine his team’s course of action at closer. 

BUY: None; SELL: None

Boston Red Sox – Losing four straight beginning the second half places general manager Craig Breslow into a tough position. He planned on trading closer Kenley Jansen, per reports, early in the season, but the players and manager suggest the team should be adding, not selling, ahead of the deadline. This weekend and next week may play a pivotal part in how he threads the needle in handling the roster for the rest of the season. Liam Hendriks may be available as soon at some point in August, which could bolster the leverage ladder if the team adds before the deadline. 

BUY: TBD; SELL: Kenley Jansen

New York Yankees – This bullpen’s deficiencies are not its closer’s fault, but there is a chance Clay Holmes should be the primary set-up reliever, not the closer. Much of this will depend on how the Yankees handle the trade deadline. New York should add one if not two, relievers for the stretch run, but will it shop at the top of the closer food chain? Time will tell. 

BUY: None; SELL: Clay Holmes

Tampa Bay Rays – According to Tankathon, the Rays have the second most difficult schedule from July 23-on, which does not help its current 1.4 percent playoff odds by Baseball-Reference. This may prompt the team to buy and sell ahead of the trade deadline, which puts closer Pete Fairbanks on the block. He’s converted 18 of 20 save chances this season with diminished underlying metrics. However, the Rays may keep him based on his below market value contract and move Jason Adams instead. Stay tuned.

BUY: Jason Adam; SELL: Pete Fairbanks

Toronto Blue Jays – Projected as a seller, the Blue Jays will try moving pending free agents Yimi García and Trevor Richards. How they handle Chad Green will determine how save chances are recorded in the last two months of the season, but if he’s traded too, this bullpen may be worth avoiding from a fantasy perspective. Reports suggest Baltimore and the Yankees are interested in Green.

BUY: None; SELL: Chad Green (if traded)

American League Central

Chicago White Sox – It may be ironic if the team traded John Brebbia but did not move Michael Kopech. Both may be moved, but time will tell how Chris Getz handles the deadline. If he trades both veteran relievers, the hierarchy will be very light on experience for the last two months. Unpopular opinion, if Kopech stays: he will finish the year strong despite his team’s limited upside for wins in the second half.

BUY: None; SELL+: Michael Kopech

Cleveland Guardians – Representing one of the few contenders not requiring bullpen help, an extra veteran with playoff experience would prove beneficial based on the team’s second half strength of schedule. Focused on winning the division, do not plan on many changes in the leverage ladder, one of the most stable in the majors. 

BUY: None; SELL: None

Detroit Tigers – Although Jason Foley has recorded 15 of his team’s 22 saves, he’s only secured four since the start of June. Through 17 games in July, he has notched two saves, while Andrew Chafin, Tyler Holton, and Shelby Miller have one each. This bullpen has been fluid over the last 14 days. Projected as sellers, Chafin and Miller will be traded, if possible, since they are pending free agents. How the team handles save chances during the second half will be monitored closely. 

BUY: None; SELL: Jason Foley

Kansas City Royals – In an early move to strengthen their leverage ladder, they traded for Hunter Harvey in early July. General Manager J.J. Picollo discussed getting him in this video and suggested that he will work in high-leverage innings and save situations will evolve. For now, James McArthur remains the closer, but his runway in the role gets shorter with Harvey in the mix. 

BUY: Hunter Harvey; SELL: James McArthur

Minnesota Twins – The biggest thing for fantasy managers in this leverage ladder is how Jhoan Durán finishes the season and his velocities. This team has other needs than the bullpen, so do not anticipate a big move here unless an injury happens in the next ten days. Getting Brock Stewart and Justin Topa back may represent the second-half’s two biggest additions for this bullpen. 

BUY: None; SELL: None

American League West

Houston Astros – Although he’s had some issues with home runs, Josh Hader will remain the closer. After the slow start, the team enters the last week before the deadline tied with Seattle for first place. Only a collapse would prompt the team to move Ryan Pressly, who will opt out at the end of the season if he wants to close games next year. Projected as buyers, the team will target one or two veterans for the bullpen, capable of protecting leads in the sixth and seventh innings.

BUY: None; SELL: None

Los Angeles Angels – There is no denying the improvement displayed by Ben Joyce since introducing his “splinker” on June 14, but he needs the team to trade Luis García, not just Carlos Estévez, for a full run as the closer. This should happen, but one cannot ignore Ron Washington’s patience in not moving up Logan O’Hoppe or Zach Neto in the lineup to avoid putting pressure on the young hitters. The good news is that the Angels should be moving any commodity possible, and with the easiest remaining strength of schedule, Joyce hopefully accrues six to eight saves down the stretch.

BUY+: Ben Joyce; SELL+: Carlos Estévez

Oakland A’s – One of the biggest trade deadline questions remains: how will they handle Mason Miller? In the latest post about the topic by Joel Sherman of the New York Post. This decision looms, especially after Miler’s dominant outing in the All-Star game. The team may hold onto him and move Lucas Erceg instead, but monitor how this evolves closely. If the team does move Erceg, it paves the way for Tyler Ferguson to gain a larger leverage role for the rest of the season.

BUY: Tyler Ferguson; SELL: None

Seattle Mariners – This leverage ladder remains a delicate ecosystem. All three relievers have missed time because of injuries, with Andrés Muñoz and Ryne Stanek pitching through lingering back issues and Gregory Santos missing most of the first half with a lat injury. With one of the best rotations in baseball, the team must add one, if not two, relievers for depth in leverage situations.

BUY: None; SELL: None

Texas Rangers – With a week until the trade deadline, they sit only four games back in the division, making their plans more difficult. Preparing to buy and sell, a mix of both will likely happen. If they decide to sell, they can take over the reliever market with Kirby Yates and José Leclerc being pending free agents, while David Robertson (mutual option) could also be moved. This would create a huge chasm in the leverage ladder, but if he’s healthy, Josh Sborz could be the beneficiary of save chances over the last two months with Jonathan Hernández getting a larger leverage role as well.

**Updated on July 25: Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports the team will buy ahead of the deadline, which would remove Yates, Robertson, and Leclerc from trade discussions.

BUY: None; SELL: None

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Monkey Bytes: July 23

Monday’s 13-game slate provided six reliever wins, featuring late-inning rallies and two extra-inning contests. Six relievers secured saves, with only Cole Sands providing a vulture one because his team padded its lead. Another late-inning collapse cost the Red Sox, and it may affect their trade deadline maneuvers, which are covered in today’s takeaways.

Three Takeaways

  • Boston’s bullpen creates tough decisions: With the caveat that the recent struggles in the bullpen are due to the lack of depth, Pete Abraham’s tweet encapsulates how front offices must manage in-season events versus the future. During a four-game losing streak at the onset of the second half, the Red Sox have suffered five blown saves. Having Chris Martin and Justin Slaten on the injured list, Liam Hendriks still throwing fastballs only in his side sessions, and Kenley Jansen out for the Colorado series, this leverage ladder is running on fumes. These next two games against the Rockies and this weekend’s set versus the Yankees may decide this team’s modus operandi at the trade deadline, but since peaking at 53 percent postseason odds at Fangraphs on July 18, after last night’s loss, the team’s trending in the wrong direction:
  • As the Dodgers bullpen turns: No, it’s not a new miniseries idea, but recent events in this Los Angeles hierarchy have made things difficult. Daniel Hudson notched his fourth save in as many appearances Monday night and owns the top spot in our updated leverage ladder. However, Dave Roberts maintains Evan Phillips will continue being used in high-leverage situations, though as Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times notes in this post, it may be certain lineup lanes, not save chances in the near term.
  • Díaz, contact, and usage patterns: Displaying signs of rust during his first appearance since July 14, Alexis Díaz could not preserve the combined shutout during a traffic-laden bottom of the ninth. It began with Marcell Ozuna’s lead-off single, a one-out walk by Adam Duvall, a sacrifice fly, a Sean Murphy walk, and a game-ending flyout by Orlando Arcia. Díaz allowed a hit, an earned run, and two walks while throwing 21 pitches (10 strikes – 47.6 Strike%) with two whiffs. After this outing, he owns a 1.67 WHIP through six innings in July with two saves. It’s tough finding a rhythm as a reliever with sporadic usage patterns. Twenty of his 38 appearances have occurred on two days’ rest or more. He’s also allowing more contact while producing fewer whiffs since the second half of last year. His 1.54 WHIP over the last statistical year ranks sixth-worst among all qualified relievers, and his 4.9 K-BB percentage does not inspire confidence. With the Reds becoming sellers, they must determine if he’s their closer entering next season, but these trends must improve:

Next, our condensed game recaps cover Monday’s high-leverage events of interest.

Closer CliffsNotes

American League

Boston Red Sox – Tasked with a bases-loaded situation and two outs in the bottom of the 12th, Chase Anderson allowed a walk-off RBI single by Ezequiel Tovar. Bailey Horn suffered his first loss and a blown save. He gave up a hit, two runs (one earned), and two walks (both intentional) while striking out one in two-thirds of the 12th.

  • Greg Weissert tossed a scoreless 11th, intentionally walking Michael Toglia and striking out one.
  • Zack Kelly logged two innings, which included a scoreless ninth. However, in the tenth, he could not preserve a two-run lead, giving up a game-tying two-run home run by Sam Hilliard. Kelly recorded three strikeouts in his outing on 26 pitches (20 strikes – 76.9 Strike%) and generated eight whiffs (30.8 SwStr%).

Hierarchy remains: Kenley Jansen | Zack Kelly | Brennan Bernardino

Chicago White Sox – Taking over in the tenth, Steven Wilson recorded two quick outs. He issued two intentional walks (Corey Seager and Josh Smith) ahead of Wyatt Langford’s walk-off RBI single, resulting in his sixth loss.

  • John Brebbia suffered his second blown save and his team’s 25th of the season. He gave up two hits, including Jonah Heim’s game-tying single with two outs, one earned run, and a walk while striking out one in the bottom of the ninth.
  • Michael Kopech stranded a runner in the seventh and logged 1.2 scoreless frames, striking out one. He threw 17 pitches (12 strikes – 70.6 Strike%) and induced two whiffs, extending his modest four-game scoreless streak.

Hierarchy remains: Michael Kopech | John Brebbia | Tanner Banks

Los Angeles Angels – Shutting the door on his 19th save, Carlos Estévez fired a clean bottom of the ninth and recorded a strikeout during a two-run win in Seattle. He threw nine pitches, all strikes, and produced three whiffs (33.3 SwStr%) facing the 4-5-6 lineup pocket. He boasts a 17-game scoreless streak, converting all 12 save opportunities with 15 strikeouts against two walks since May 28.

  • Luis García was awarded the win for a second straight game, his fifth on the season, working a scoreless bottom of the eighth. He allowed a hit and recorded two strikeouts.
  • Hunter Strickland retired the side and struck out two in the seventh.
  • Hans Crouse stranded two runners, striking out his only batter in the sixth.

Hierarchy remains: Carlos Estévez | Luis García | Ben Joyce

Minnesota Twins – After retiring the side at the top of the eighth and protecting a two-run lead, Cole Sands remained in the game for the ninth after his teammates tacked on three runs at the bottom of the eighth. He secured his third save, working around a hitter reaching on an error for two scoreless frames and recording two strikeouts. He threw 30 pitches (70 Strike%) and produced four whiffs (13.3 SwStr%). He’s only given up two unearned runs over six games in July, with 11 strikeouts versus zero walks across nine innings. Jhoan Durán was warming for the ninth but sat down when the lead expanded beyond a save chance. 

Hierarchy remains: Jhoan Durán | Griffin Jax | Jorge Alcala

Seattle Mariners – With the game in the balance, Andrés Muñoz took over with two runners on and one out in the top of the eighth. After a double steal put the runners on second and third, he suffered his third blown save, letting one of the two inherited runners score on a Taylor Ward game-tying sacrifice fly. Muñoz threw 10 pitches (50 Strike%) and induced one whiff while retiring both hitters in the eighth.

  • Ryne Stanek gets credit for his 15th hold despite issuing two walks and an earned run on his ledger while striking out one in one-third of the eighth.
  • Trent Thornton gets tagged with his second loss. He gave up consecutive two-out walks and a go-ahead RBI single by Jo Adell, scoring two runs (one earned) in the top of the ninth.

Hierarchy remains: Andrés Muñoz | Ryne Stanek | Gregory Santos

Texas Rangers – Benefiting from a walk-off rally at the bottom of the tenth, Jonathan Hernández collected his third win. He retired the side at the inning’s top and recorded two strikeouts. He threw nine pitches (88.9 Strike%) and generated five whiffs (55.6 SwStr%).

  • Kirby Yates allowed his first home run of the season, a solo shot by Paul DeJong, issued a walk, and struck out two in the top of the ninth.
  • David Robertson tossed a clean eighth, striking out one.
  • José Leclerc fired two clean frames and recorded four strikeouts.

Hierarchy remains: Kirby Yates | David Robertson | José Leclerc

National League

Chicago Cubs – Recording his 14th save, Héctor Neris worked around a two-out Garrett Mitchell double with a game-ending William Contreras ground-out, preserving a two-run win against the Brewers. He threw 12 pitches (83.3 Strike%) and induced one whiff. He extended his scoreless streak to nine games, collecting two wins and converting all four save chances.

  • Porter Hodge was credited with his fourth hold despite allowing Willy Adames’ solo home run in the eighth.
  • Mark Leiter Jr. fired a clean seventh, striking out the side.
  • Tyson Miller notched his sixth hold, yielding a hit and striking out two in a scoreless sixth.
  • Drew Smyly earned his third win and gave up a hit through 1.2 scoreless frames.

Hierarchy remains: Héctor Neris | Mark Leiter Jr. | Porter Hodge

Colorado Rockies – Despite letting the “place” runner score in the top of the 12th, Justin Lawrence collected his third win following his team’s walk-off rally at the bottom of the inning. He logged two innings, allowing an RBI single and striking out one.

  • Victor Vodnik gave up two hits and two runs (one earned) while recording a strikeout during his two-inning outing. He tossed a scoreless ninth and gave up both runs in the top of the tenth on a Dominic Smith double and a sacrifice fly.
  • Jalen Beeks suffered his seventh blown save, giving up three hits, including a game-tying Connor Wong solo home run in the eighth.
  • Nick Mears retired the side and recorded a strikeout in the seventh.

Updated Hierarchy: *Jalen Beeks | *Victor Vodnik | Nick Mears

*= closer-by-committee

Los Angeles Dodgers – Capping an eighth-inning rally, Daniel Hudson secured his seventh save. He navigated around a two-out walk with a game-ending flyout, preserving the one-run win. He threw 19 pitches (11 strikes – 57.9 Strike%) and produced four whiffs (21.1 SwStr%) while recording two strikeouts. This marked his second instance of appearing three times in four days this season, and he’s recorded four straight saves.

  • Blake Treinen collected his fourth win, working a scoreless eighth. He issued a walk and recorded two strikeouts.
  • Ryan Yarbrough suffered his second blown save, allowing a game-tying Tyler Fitzgerald solo home run and striking out two in the seventh.
  • Alex Vesia took over in the sixth with runners on the corners and recorded consecutive strikeouts, stranding both in a high-leverage moment.

Updated Hierarchy: *Daniel Hudson | *Alex Vesia | *Blake Treinen

*= closer-by-committee

New York Mets –Hanging on for his 12th save, Edwin Díaz worked himself into and out of trouble in the bottom of the ninth in Miami. He allowed a one-out single, walked Jazz Chilsolm Jr., and loaded the bases with a Bryan De La Cruz single. After giving up a run on a fielder’s choice groundout, Díaz induced a game-ending pop-out by Jake Burger, finishing the two-run win. He threw 28 pitches (15 strikes – 53.6 Strike%) and produced five whiffs (17.9 SwStr%). This snapped the closer’s nine-game scoreless streak.

  • Phil Maton tossed a clean eighth, recording his 11th hold.
  • José Buttó notched his second hold, allowing a De La Cruz solo home run and striking out three over two innings.

Hierarchy remains: Edwin Díaz | Dedniel Núñez | Phil Maton

Pittsburgh Pirates – Securing his 18th save, David Bednar navigated around a two-out Paul Goldschmidt with a game-ending Nolan Gorman strikeout. He threw 13 pitches (11 strikes – 84.6 Strike%) and produced four whiffs (30.8 SwStr%) while preserving a one-run win. He’s been scoreless in four of his last five while converting four saves.

  • Aroldis Chapman collected his second win. He retired the side and struck out one in the eighth, ahead of his team taking the lead in the bottom of the inning. He’s made consecutive clean appearances in the second half, striking out four of six batters.

Hierarchy remains: David Bednar | Aroldis Chapman | Colin Holderman

Vulture Save Options for Tuesday, July 23

  • Ben Joyce (LAA): Estévez and García have worked in back-to-back games, leaving the rookie in line for the save chance.
  • Jonathan Hernández (TEX): Yates and Robertson have pitched on consecutive days. Leclerc also logged two innings in Monday’s game, leaving the leverage ladder a bit thin and Hernández potentially atop the hierarchy for a save chance. Josh Sborz will also be in the mix.
  • Gregory Santos (SEA): Muñoz has appeared in two straight, and Stanek’s nursing a sore back.
  • Jorge López (CHC): It’s a long shot, but the Cubs hierarchy has pitched the last two days, leaving the veteran in line for the vulture save chance in Milwaukee.

Vulture Save Stash for Wednesday, July 23

  • Colin Holderman (PIT): If Bednar and Chapman pitch tonight, it will be consecutive outings and three of the last four.

Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community. Stay safe and be well.

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Statistical Credits:

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Baseball-Reference.com

Statcast