Monkey Bytes: September 18

Tuesday provided six reliever wins, though one accompanied a blown save (Josh Hader) and seven saves. Marcus Stroman recorded his first save of the season, logging three innings during a lopsided win in Seattle, but it’s the second of his career. Our condensed game recaps cover yesterday’s high-leverage events of interest.

Closer CliffsNotes

Alexis Díaz (CIN) worked around Orlando Arcia’s two-out single with a game-ending strikeout, preserving a one-run win over Atlanta and securing his 28th save. He threw 19 pitches (12 strikes – 63.2 Strike%) and produced four whiffs (21.1 Strike%) while striking out two in his outing. He’s been scoreless in seven appearances this month with a win and converting four saves, with seven strikeouts against zero walks. Emilio Pagán recorded his seventh hold, giving up a hit and striking out one in a scoreless eighth. Brent Suter was awarded his first win, stranding a runner and yielding a hit in one-third of the seventh. 

  • Hierarchy remains: Alexis Díaz | Emilio Pagán | Fernando Cruz

Jason Foley (DET) retired the side and stranded the “place” runner at the bottom of the tenth, preserving a two-run win in Kansas City and locking down his 25th save. He threw 11 pitches (72.7 Strike%) without a whiff. He’s appeared in three straight games, securing a save in each, and been scoreless in six of his previous seven, converting all five saves. Tyler Holton collected his seventh win. He tossed two clean frames and recorded two strikeouts on 32 pitches (21 strikes – 65.6 Strike%) with one whiff.

  • Hierarchy remains: *Jason Foley | *Tyler Holton | Will Vest
  • *= closer-by-committee

Héctor Neris (HOU) allowed a walk and recorded a strikeout in a scoreless bottom of the tenth, preserving a one-run win while securing his 18th save, his first with the Astros this season. He threw 18 pitches (55.6 Strike%) and induced three whiffs (16.7 SwStr%). Josh Hader logged a multiple-inning outing against his former team to a smattering of boos but uncorked a wild pitch at the bottom of the eighth, scoring Fernando Tatis Jr. with the game-tying run, resulting in his third blown save. After tossing a clean ninth, Hader collected his eighth win. He retired all four batters, two via strikeout on 12 pitches (83.3 Strike%) with three whiffs (25 SwStr%).

  • Hierarchy remains: Josh Hader | Ryan Pressly | Bryan Abreu

Lucas Erceg (KC) suffered his sixth loss. He allowed a one-out RBI single by Parker Meadows in the tenth, scoring the “place” runner, issued a two-out walk, and Riley Greene produced an RBI single, forcing Erceg’s removal. He threw 35 pitches (21 strikes – 60 Strike%) and induced four whiffs. This snapped a five-game scoreless streak, representing his first loss since August 29.

  • Hierarchy remains: Lucas Erceg | John Schreiber | Kris Bubic

Jesús Tinoco (MIA) allowed three hits and two earned runs while striking out one at the top of the ninth against his previous employer in a non-save appearance. He had been in his three previous outings this month and in 14 of 16 games with Miami. He threw 24 pitches (62.5 Strike%) and induced three whiffs in a non-save capacity. 

  • Hierarchy remains: Jesús Tinoco | Declan Cronin | Anthony Bender

Griffin Jax (MIN) took over with two on and one out at the bottom of the ninth. He recorded a strikeout, allowed a single, and induced a game-ending Bo Naylor groundout, preserving the three-run win during his ninth save. He threw eight pitches (75 Strike%) and generated four whiffs. This marked his first save since August 5. Jhoan Durán worked a scoreless eighth, then returned for the ninth. After allowing José Ramírez’s double and striking out Josh Naylor, he was removed after walking Lane Thomas. Durán notched his seventh hold and recorded two strikeouts while throwing 30 pitches (66.7 Strike%) with four whiffs.

  • Hierarchy remains: Jhoan Durán | Griffin Jax | Cole Sands

Marcus Stroman (NYY) recorded his first save and first since 2014, tossing the last three innings in Seattle. He allowed an earned run on Luke Raley’s solo home run while scattering five hits and recording three strikeouts in his outing. He threw 64 pitches (42 strikes – 65.6 Strike%) and induced three whiffs.

  • Hierarchy remains: *Luke Weaver | *Tommy Kahnle | Jake Cousins
  • *= closer-by-committee

Mason Miller (OAK) allowed Ian Happ’s solo home run and recorded two strikeouts, finishing a one-run win and tying a franchise record with his 26th save as a rookie. He threw 21 pitches (66.7 Strike%) and generated five whiffs (23.8 SwStr%). He’s converted three straight saves but lost his modest three-game scoreless streak in this outing. 

  • Hierarchy remains: Mason Miller | Tyler Ferguson | Michel Otañez

Jeremiah Estrada (SD) retired both batters, keeping his team within one run. Adrian Morejon suffered his second loss, allowing two hits and the “place” runner to score on Kyle Tucker’s RBI single during one-third of the tenth. Robert Suarez navigated around a lead-off double and recorded a strikeout in a scoreless ninth. He threw 12 pitches (75 Strike%) and induced one whiff while appearing in a third straight game.

  • Hierarchy remains: Robert Suarez | Tanner Scott | Jason Adam

Ryan Helsley (STL) allowed a two-out single and recorded two strikeouts while finishing a two-run win over the Pirates while securing his 45th save. He threw 16 pitches (75 Strike%) and induced two whiffs. Since August 7, he’s logged 13 appearances, with 12 being scoreless while converting ten of 11 save chances with 19 strikeouts against three walks.

  • Hierarchy remains: Ryan Helsley | Andrew Kittredge | JoJo Romero

Matt Festa (TEX) collected his fifth win after taking over at the top of the fifth. He logged 1.1 scoreless frames, walking and striking out two against Toronto. José Leclerc retired the side for his 12th hold in the seventh. David Robertson gave up two hits and an earned run in the eighth while getting credit for his 32nd hold. Kirby Yates navigated around two walks for a scoreless ninth, finishing the five-run victory. 

  • Hierarchy remains: Kirby Yates | David Robertson | José Leclerc

Vulture Save Options for Wednesday, September 18

  • Tanner Scott (SD): Suarez and Adam have appeared in three consecutive games. 
  • Will Vest (DET): Hinch has pulled all the right strings, but Foley has pitched in three straight contests; Holton has worked in two of the last three, throwing 54 pitches. 
  • Kris Bubic (KC): If going against the grain, Erceg logged 35 pitches last night, and Bubic could match up against the heavy left-handed top of the Tigers lineup. 
  • Cole Sands (MIN): Durán threw 30 pitches in yesterday’s win, and Jax appeared in back-to-back games. 

Vulture Save Stashes for Thursday, September 19

  • Andrew Kittredge (STL): If Helsley pitches today, it marks consecutive outings. 
  • Tony Santillan (CIN): If Díaz appears today, he will be off on Thursday. 

Today’s Takeaways

Kimbrel and the Cliff: Any high-leverage reliever has a shelf life. Craig Kimbrel has transitioned from an All-Star snub, per many analysts, in the first half to a questionable postseason spot on the roster. After last night’s implosion, he has made 18 appearances in the second half without a save. Across 17 innings, he’s produced 20 strikeouts against 15 walks with a 2.177 WHIP, one win in four decisions, and one blown save. Watching the twilight of one of the best relievers is tough, but working with declining velocity, his days as a closer may be finished. 

Miller’s “second half”: While assessing Mason Miller and projecting him for 2025, marrying his strong start of the season with less pronounced strikeout rates throughout his rookie campaign must be accounted for and last night marked his 50th game, putting June 18 as the midpoint of his season. Over his last 25 games, he’s suffered a loss while converting all 14 save chances across 28 innings. He’s generated 39 strikeouts versus seven walks (29.4 K-BB%) with a 0.86 WHIP, 66.4 strike percentage, 19.1 percent swinging strike rate, and a 64.2 contact percentage allowed. It’s all impressive, but not quite at the levels he produced in his first 25 games. There’s nothing wrong with a reliever on pace for 90 strikeouts in this sample, and he will be projected as a top-five reliever next season. Note his 10-game rolling chart and target accordingly: 

Those seeking full game recaps should surf the team pages; they’ve all been updated with Tuesday’s results.

Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community. Stay safe and be well.

Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

Baseball-Reference.com

Statcast