August 2024 – Page 7 – Closer Monkey

Monkey Bytes: August 2

Although small, Thursday’s five-game slate provided plenty of intrigue, especially the last three contests. Raisel Iglesias secured his 23rd save while working in a third straight game. Ryan Helsley allowed a walk-off rally by the Cubs, and cagy veteran Hunter Strickland suffered a blown save versus the Rockies.

Closer CliffsNotes

Raisel Iglesias (ATL) appeared for a third straight game and recorded his 23rd save, his first in the second half, with a clean ninth while recording a strikeout.

Nate Pearson (CHC) benefited from a walk-off rally and collected his first win. He worked two scoreless frames, giving up a hit and striking out one.

Tyler Kinley (COL) notched his first save since June and sixth of the season, with a scoreless bottom of the tenth. Victor Vodnik picked up his third win courtesy of a scoreless ninth, keeping the game tied after his teammates rallied at the top of the inning and scored the game-winning run in the tenth.

Hunter Strickland (LAA) suffered his second blown save. He issued a walk and gave up a game-tying Jake Cave two-run home run in the top of the ninth. If only the team had better options for save chances.

Ryan Helsley (STL) tied his season-high by allowing four hits and three earned runs for the first time in 2024. This resulted in his fourth loss and third blown save during a walk-off against the Cubs.

What to Watch For This Weekend

American League

Baltimore Orioles – Craig Kimbrel last recorded a save on July 7 and has allowed seven earned runs over his last six appearances spanning 5.2 innings. Will Brandon Hyde call upon Yennier Cano and his career 5.34 ERA in the ninth inning or try newly added Seranthony Domínguez (28 career saves) in save situations this weekend?

Boston Red Sox—Kenley Jansen is day-to-day after tweaking his back during a pitch on Wednesday. Will he appear on consecutive days this weekend, or will Lucas Sims and/or Luis García receive an opportunity in the ninth?

Detroit Tigers – Who gets the next save chance for the Tigers? Shelby Miller secured his team’s only second-half save and may be in line, but save chances have been few and far between for this team over the last two weeks.

Kansas City Royals—Although no signs of a role change are imminent, adding Hunter Harvey and Lucas Erceg at the trade deadline signals that the team needs better outcomes in high-leverage events. James McArthur enters the weekend as the presumed closer, but he must improve his recent results. He converted four of five saves in July but allowed at least a run in four of eight games with a 1.73 WHIP and 9.8 K-BB percentage.

Los Angeles Angels—Fantasy managers cannot force a change in the bullpen hierarchy, but Hunter Strickland‘s blown save last night may give Ben Joyce a chance shortly. It’s tough to determine what a rebuilding team gains by using a 35-year-old pending free agent in save situations.

National League

Arizona Diamondbacks – July will be a month Paul Sewald hopes to forget. He suffered four blown saves and was spared a fifth when Ryan Thompson bailed him out on Wednesday. It’s more than a mechanical issue, especially with Sewald’s four-seam velocity remaining a tick down compared with last year. Fantasy players will keep tabs on how Torey Lovullo uses his relievers in save chances this weekend. Will it be Sewald? Thompson (a Clay Holmes-lite)? Or newly acquired A.J. Puk? Or a combination of them in a match-up-based approach with Kevin Ginkel also in the mix?

Los Angeles Dodgers—This leverage ladder has had a rough last 30 days, with as many blown saves (eight) as saves (eight) in 23 games. Which reliever will emerge in August? Can Evan Phillips find his past form? Could Michael Kopech earn a more prominent leverage role in the next two weeks?

Miami Marlins – Although the team has not had a save opportunity since trading Tanner Scott, Calvin Faucher finished a four-run win earlier this week and could be in line for his first save since 2022 this weekend. However, this could also be a match-up-based bullpen with Andrew Nardi and Anthony Bender in the mix. Stay tuned.

Milwaukee Brewers – Devin Williams will not be making back-to-back outings in the near term, and there has been no indication when the team will take the training wheels off during his return from a stress fracture in his back. Will Joel Payamps be the preferred ancillary save option? Can those with Trevor Megill hold out hope for save chances once he returns?

San Diego Padres—After reporting to his new team, Tanner Scott said he would be ready whenever the phone rang, as Kevin Acee covered in this post for The San Diego Union-Tribune. Mike Shildt confirmed Robert Suarez will remain his closer, but he can used more sparingly and not log multiple-inning outings with the new “superpen” A.J. Preller has put together, adding Scott and Jason Adam.

San Francisco Giants – The good news is Camilo Doval converted six of seven save opportunities in July. However, he also finished the month with a 1.68 WHIP and 18.4 K-BB percentage through 8.1 innings. Can he regain past results over the remainder of the second half?

Vulture Save Option for Friday, August 2

Joe Jiménez (ATL): This time, an Atlanta reliever other than Raisel Iglesias should pitch since he’s worked in three consecutive games.

Vulture Save Option for Saturday, August 3

Andrew Kittredge (STL): If Helsley pitches again today, it will be back-to-back outings.

American League – Game Recap from August 1

Los Angeles Angels – In the top of the tenth, Hans Crouse made a throwing error on a sacrifice bunt by Sam Hilliard leading off the inning, scoring the “place” runner. This resulted in his third loss. Crouse recovered with two strikeouts while retiring the next three batters.

Hunter Strickland suffered his second blown save in the ninth. His outing started with a walk, a leverage mortal sin, and a one-out, game-tying Jake Cave two-run home run. Strickland finished with a hit, two earned runs, and a walk while striking out one on 18 pitches (50 Strike%) with one whiff.
Ben Joyce tossed a scoreless eighth, navigating around a hit and a walk while striking out one. After the first two batters reached, he induced a double play groundball and struck out Brenton Doyle, ending the threat. He threw 19 pitches (12 strikes – 63.2 Strike%) and induced two whiffs. He secured his seventh hold and extended his scoreless streak to 17 games, spanning 21.1 innings with 19 strikeouts against 10 walks and a 0.85 WHIP.

Hierarchy remains: *Ben Joyce | *Hunter Strickland | Hans Crouse

*= closer-by-committee

National League – Game Recaps from August 1

Atlanta Braves – Securing his first second-half save and 23rd of the season, Raisel Iglesias fired a clean top of the ninth and recorded a strikeout despite appearing in a third straight game. He threw 10 pitches (60 Strike%) and induced one whiff. He’s been scoreless over his last seven with nine strikeouts against one walk.

A.J. Minter retired the side and recorded two strikeouts for his ninth hold in the eighth inning.
Luke Jackson let one of two inherited runners score, yielding a hit and retiring one for his third hold.
Dylan Lee issued two walks, resulting in an earned run, and recorded a strikeout in two-thirds of the seventh, getting credit for his third hold.

Hierarchy remains: Raisel Iglesias | Joe Jiménez | A.J. Minter

Chicago Cubs – Taking over with his team down by two runs, Nate Pearson tossed two scoreless frames, allowing a hit and striking out one. He collected his first win courtesy of his team’s three-run rally in the bottom of the ninth. Pearson threw 28 pitches (20 strikes – 71.4 Strike%) and induced one whiff during his second outing with his new team.

Jorge López let his only inherited runner score in the seventh on Nolan Arenado’s RBI single and recorded a strikeout in his one-third of an inning.

Hierarchy remains: Héctor Neris | Porter Hodge | Julian Merryweather

Colorado Rockies – With a one-run lead in the bottom of the tenth, Tyler Kinley retired the side and recorded a strikeout against the Angels’ 3-4-5 hitters despite uncorking a wild pitch. This marked his first save since June 11.

Victor Vodnik collected his third win. He threw a scoreless ninth, allowing a walk and striking out one while his team trailed by one, then benefited from a game-tying two-run home run by Jake Cave. Vodnik tossed 18 pitches (55.6 Strike%) and induced one whiff. He’s been scoreless in six of his last seven appearances with eight strikeouts against two walks while converting this win and three saves.
Angel Chivilli worked a clean seventh and recorded a strikeout.

Hierarchy remains: Victor Vodnik | Tyler Kinley | Justin Lawrence

St. Louis Cardinals – August began poorly for Ryan Helsley. He suffered his fourth loss and third blown save, allowing a walk-off rally by the Cubs. After retiring Seiya Suzuki on a pop-out, Cody Bellinger launched a solo home run, followed by an Isaac Paredes groundout. However, with two outs, Nico Hoerner singled, stole second base, and scored on Dansby Swanson’s RBI double, then scored on Mike Tauchman’s pinch-hit double. Helsley gave up four hits for the second time this season and three earned runs, his most allowed all year. He threw 24 pitches (17 strikes – 70.8 Strike%) and produced five whiffs (20.8 SwStr%).

JoJo Romero notched his 27th hold with a clean bottom of the eighth and two strikeouts.

Hierarchy remains: Ryan Helsley | Andrew Kittredge | JoJo Romero

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

Baseball-Reference.com

Statcast

Monkey Bytes: August 1

Following a voluminous trade deadline for relievers, roles will continue to evolve through this weekend. It is challenging to say one reliever will be the closer when teams may be deploying a match-up-based approach or auditioning players for their leverage role. Because of this, the hierarchies and our closer depth chart will undergo multiple updates over the next few days.

Yesterday, two relievers recorded wins, and there were only four saves. While many keep chasing saves in unsettled situations, a reliever may emerge for the Rockies. Change may be on tap in Arizona, and the Dodgers remain challenging to predict.

Closer CliffsNotes

Ryan Thompson (ARI) was called upon with one out in the ninth and two runners on. He produced a strikeout, scored a runner on a wild pitch, intentionally walked a batter, and induced a game-ending groundout, preserving a one-run win.

Pierce Johnson (ATL) collected his fourth win. He took over in the sixth and stranded two runners. He finished with 1.1 scoreless innings, giving up a hit and a walk while striking out two.

Zack Kelly (BOS) worked a scoreless top of the tenth, navigating around a wild pitch and a walk while striking out one. He earned his fourth win via a walk-off double by Rafael Devers leading off the bottom of the inning.

Victor Vodnik (COL) nailed down his fourth save. He retired the side against the Angels and recorded a strikeout while preserving a one-run win.

Josh Hader (HOU) notched his 21st save with a scoreless ninth. He allowed a hit and recorded a strikeout while finishing a one-run come-from-behind win over the Pirates.

Jared Koenig (MIL) was tagged with his third loss. He gave up a hit, two unearned runs, and a walk while striking out one in two-thirds of the seventh. Elvis Peguero replaced him, letting two of three inherited runners score on an Austin Riley single.

Clay Holmes (NYY) recorded his 22nd save, allowing a hit during a scoreless ninth.

Two Takeaways

Sewald on the hot seat: Although his manager deflected a direct answer in this video, Paul Sewald began July with three blown saves, and he ended it with a hold but was removed from his save opportunity yesterday on the brink of his fifth in a 12-game span. His four-seam fastball velocity remains down this season and the lingering effects of his oblique injury may signal it’s not going to rebound with time off. In the near term, fantasy managers await Torey Lovullo’s plan for future saves, but a mix of A.J. Puk, Ryan Thompson, and Kevin Ginkel may happen as soon as this weekend. For the visual crowd, here is his splits-by-pitch this year versus last:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/MEhoi/3/

V-squared: Targeting a Rockies reliever can cause apprehension, but with so many bullpens thrust into disarray, could Victor Vodnik help fantasy managers in the near term? He secured his fourth save in July and has a 20.3 K-BB percentage with a 0.92 over his last 16.1 innings since June 21.

Vulture Save Option for Thursday, August 1

A.J. Minter (ATL): He did not pitch yesterday, but Iglesias and Jiménez did, leaving him atop our hierarchy for today’s match-up against Miami.
Calvin Faucher (MIA): If being contrarian, he worked the ninth during a four-run win and could receive the team’s first save chance in the post-Scott era.

American League – Game Recaps from July 31

Boston Red Sox – Navigating around a wild pitch, Zack Kelly collected his fourth win after stranding the “place” runner in the top of the tenth. He allowed a walk and recorded a strikeout during his scoreless outing before his team’s walk-off rally in the bottom of the frame.

Kenley Jansen tossed a scoreless ninth, issuing a walk and striking out one. He did “tweak” his back, and he’s considered day-to-day until their next game on Friday.
Josh Winckowski retired the side in the eighth and recorded a strikeout.
Lucas Sims stranded two runners despite issuing a walk during two-thirds scoreless in the seventh.

Hierarchy remains: Kenley Jansen | Lucas Sims | Zack Kelly

Houston Astros – Securing his 21st save, Josh Hader worked around a one-out Jared Triolo single with a strikeout and a game-ending groundout, preserving the one-run win. He threw 13 pitches (76.9 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (23.1 SwStr%). He finished July with nine saves while making 12 appearances, eight scoreless with 14 strikeouts versus four walks, and a 097 WHIP through 10.1 innings.

Ryan Pressly navigated around two hits for a scoreless eighth and his 18th hold.
Bryan Abreu retired the side in the seventh, notching his 26th hold.

Hierarchy remains: Josh Hader | Ryan Pressly | Bryan Abreu

New York Yankees – Working around a lead-off Kyle Schwarber single, Clay Holmes retired Austin Hays on a flyout and induced a game-ending double play groundout by Bryce Harper for his 22nd save, preserving a one-run win and a sweep. He threw seven pitches (85.7 Strike%) with one whiff. He converted three of seven save opportunities in July and allowed at least a run in four outings.

Mark Leiter Jr. gave up three hits and an earned run while striking out two in the eighth, getting credit for his 16th hold.
Tommy Kahnle notched his seventh hold, stranding a runner and issuing a walk with a strikeout in two-thirds of the seventh.
Luke Weaver recorded his 16th hold, allowing two hits and an earned run during his combined inning.

Hierarchy remains: Clay Holmes | Luke Weaver | Mark Leiter Jr.

National League – Game Recaps from July 31

Arizona Diamondbacks – Summoned with two runners on and one out in the top of the ninth, Ryan Thompson recorded a strikeout against Harold Ramírez, intentionally walked Luis García Jr., and induced a game-ending groundout by Riley Adams for his first save.

Paul Sewald gets credit for his first hold despite his rough outing. It started with a lead-off walk, a leverage mortal sin, a groundout, a CJ Abrams RBI double, and two more walks, prompting his removal. Sewald finished with a hit, two earned runs, and three walks on 24 pitches (9 strikes – 37.5 Strike%). He finished July with a bloated 2.20 WHIP through 12 appearances spanning 10 innings and converted five of nine save chances, though this outing does not qualify.
Kevin Ginkel allowed three hits and an earned run while striking out one in the eighth.
A.J. Puk fired a clean seventh, striking out one.

Updated Hierarchy: Paul Sewald (hot seat) | A.J. Puk | Ryan Thompson

Atlanta Braves – Pressed into action with two runners on and two outs in the bottom of the sixth, Pierce Johnson kept the game tied despite issuing a walk with an inning-ending strikeout. He added a scoreless seventh inning and collected his fourth win when his teammates rallied for two in the top of the inning. Johnson finished with a hit and a walk while striking out two over his 1.1 scoreless innings.

Joe Jiménez tossed a scoreless eighth, giving up a hit and striking out two.
Raisel Iglesias retired the side and recorded two strikeouts in the ninth, preserving the four-run win. He threw 15 pitches (60 Strike%) and induced two whiffs. He’s been scoreless in his last six outings but has not secured a save in the second half.