August 2024 – Page 3 – Closer Monkey

Monkey Bytes: August 20

All ten games on Monday were decided by three runs or fewer. However, two of those contests featured relievers (Cincinnati and Arizona) allowing at least a run in the bottom of the ninth during a road win. Four relievers recorded a win, and six saves were secured. Boston suffered its MLB-leading 12th blown save in the second half during an eventual walk-off loss in Houston. Baltimore also allowed a walk-off home run in its loss against the Mets. Our condensed recaps cover last night’s high-leverage events of interest.

Closer CliffsNotes

Paul Sewald (ARI) had his six-game scoreless streak snapped in a non-save outing in Miami. He allowed three hits and two earned runs while closing out a win. His average velocity with his four-seam fastball was only 90.7 m.p.h. in this appearance.

Seranthony Domínguez (BAL) took over a tied game in the bottom of the ninth, producing a strikeout, then served up a walk-off home run by Francisco Alvarez, resulting in his third loss.

Kenley Jansen (BOS) had his six-game scoreless streak snapped by Yainer Diaz’s walk-off home run in the bottom of the ninth, handing the closer his second loss.

Tony Santillan (CIN) took over in the bottom of the fifth and collected his first win. He worked 1.1 scoreless frames, giving up a walk and striking out one. Alexis Díaz closed out the win in a non-save opportunity. He allowed a solo home run and recorded a strikeout.

John Schreiber (KCR) returned from the injured list and secured his second save with a scoreless ninth against the Angels. He worked around a lead-off single with a double play groundout and a game-ending lineout.

Evan Phillips (LAD) fired a clean top of the ninth and recorded two strikeouts, preserving a combined shutout of Seattle. He’s only allowed one unearned run during nine appearances this month, with 13 strikeouts versus one walk.

Edwin Díaz (NYM) fired a clean top of the ninth and recorded a strikeout. He collected his fourth win courtesy of a walk-off home run in the bottom of the inning. He’s been scoreless in six of his last seven appearances with this win, two saves, and 12 strikeouts against two walks.

Mason Miller (OAK) secured his 19th save while preserving a combined shutout. He allowed a walk and struck out one against the Rays. His 357 pitches at 100 m.p.h. or faster leads all major league pitchers this season.

Robert Suarez (SDP) posted his 28th save despite allowing an earned run on a two-out walk and an RBI single. He’s converted all five save chances in August but has given up a run in three of his last five games.

Jordan Hicks (SFG) held on for his first save with a scoreless top of the ninth. He allowed two hits in a bend-but-not-break outing, preserving a two-run win over the White Sox. He’s been scoreless through six relief outings in August. He also became the second Giants pitcher to record at least 20 starts and a save in a season, joining Tim Lincecum (2014).

Kirby Yates (TEX) recorded his 22nd save with a clean ninth while striking out two. He preserved a one-run win against the Pirates on 15 pitches (80 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (20 SwStr%).

Vulture Save Options for Tuesday, August 20

Bryan Abreu (HOU): Hader has recorded back-to-back outings.
David Robertson (TEX): Yates has logged consecutive appearances.
Yennier Cano (BAL): Domínguez has pitched in the two previous games.
Michel Otañez (OAK): Miller and Ferguson have logged back-to-back appearances.

Vulture Save Stashes for Wednesday. August 21

Pending usage patterns from Tuesday.

Three Takeaways

Phillips ditched the cutter: Evan Phillips recorded his first save since July 23 and changed his pitch mix, fueling his bounce back in August. He’s allowed an unearned run in nine appearances this month with 12 strikeouts against one walk and a 0.69 WHIP over 7.1 innings. In previous posts, his struggles with his cutter, especially against left-handed batters, have been emphasized. However, in his last nine games, he’s relied on his four-seam fastball (20 SwStr%, 37.9 percent whiff rate, .162 weighted on-base average) and his sweeper (9.1 SwStr%, 23.5 percent whiff rate, .138 xwOBA) while shelving the cutter. It’s a positive sign for the remainder of his season. This chart, courtesy of Statcast, illustrates his adapted pitch mix:

Boston and blown saves: Amid a stretch of 27 games in 27 days (8/9-9/4), the Red Sox need its leverage ladder to remain in the mix for the Wild Card. Unfortunately, the team leads the majors in blown saves (12) in the second half, and last night’s blown save resulted in a walk-off loss. Kenley Jansen suffered the loss, but Lucas Sims blew the lead in the eighth inning. He’s only allowed runs in three outings since his acquisition, all against Houston, resulting in six runs. Through its last 29 contests, the Red Sox have only recorded four saves, and its relievers rank dead last in Win Probability Added since the All-Star break. Help may be on the way in the form of Justin Slaten and Liam Hendriks, but will it happen early enough to keep playoff aspirations alive?
Sewald and velocity: Just when it seemed like the door was ajar enough for a return into high-leverage relevance for Paul Sewald, his velocity declined during his outing on Monday in Miami. He allowed three hits and two earned runs while averaging 90.7 m.p.h. with his four-seam fastball. His results with his four-seam above and below 92 m.p.h. cannot be ignored, and these velocities do not bode well:

American League – Full Game Recaps, August 19

Baltimore Orioles – With the score tied in the bottom of the ninth, Seranthony Domínguez recorded a strikeout, then allowed Francisco Alvarez’s walk-off solo home run, resulting in his third loss. He threw eight pitches (50 Strike%) and induced one whiff. He’s allowed a home run in his last two games, and all three earned runs with the Orioles have come via a solo home run. Through 11 games, he’s converted all three save chances with a 14:3 K:BB and a 0.84 WHIP across 10.2 innings.

Keegan Akin fired two clean frames and recorded five strikeouts.
Colin Selby stranded two runners in the fifth and retried all four batters faced, three on strikeouts.

Hierarchy remains: Seranthony Domínguez | Yennier Cano | Cionel Pérez

Boston Red Sox – After striking out Yordan Alvarez on three pitches, Kenley Jansen suffered his second loss, allowing Yainer Diaz’s walk-off home run. This represents his first loss since May 16 and snapped his modest six-game scoreless streak.

Lucas Sims struggled with his command, allowing two hits, an earned run, and two walks while striking out one during his fourth blown save in the eighth. The Red Sox have produced 12 blown saves in the second half, most in the majors.
Chris Martin navigated around two hits and recorded three strikeouts in a scoreless seventh, securing his 12th hold.

Hierarchy remains: Kenley Jansen | Chris Martin | Lucas Sims

Houston Astros – Benefiting from a walk-off home run, Josh Hader collected his sixth win. He retired the side against Boston’s 7-8-9 lineup pocket on 12 pitches (75 Strike%) and induced one whiff. His scoreless streak reached ten games, producing 12 strikeouts versus three walks over his last 10.1 innings.

Caleb Ferguson fired a clean eighth and recorded two strikeouts.
Tayler Scott let his only inherited runner score, allowing Masataka Yoshida’s home run, putting one earned on his ledger during his 1.1-inning outing.

Hierarchy remains: Josh Hader | Bryan Abreu | Tayler Scott

Kansas City Royals – Back from the injured list, John Schreiber secured his second save, preserving a two-run win over the Angels. He navigated around Logan O’Hoppe’s leadoff single with a double play groundout and a game-ending lineout. He threw eight pitches (75 Strike%) without a whiff. This marked his first outing since July 28 and his first save since May.

Kris Bubic gave up Zach Neto’s solo home run and recorded two strikeouts for his third hold in the eighth.

Updated Hierarchy: *Lucas Erceg | *Kris Bubic | *John Schreiber

*= closer-by-committee

Oakland A’s – Securing his 19th save, Mason Miller navigated around a two-out walk with a game-ending lineout, preserving the combined shutout. He threw 17 pitches (10 strikes – 58.8 Strike%) and induced two whiffs while recording one strikeout. He’s converted four saves since his reinstatement from the injured list while being scoreless in six contests with nine strikeouts versus three walks.

Tyler Ferguson recorded his fourth hold with a clean eighth and two strikeouts. He’s been scoreless in 15 of his last 17.
Grant Holman notched his second hold in as many outings with a scoreless seventh. He allowed a walk and recorded two strikeouts.

Hierarchy remains: Mason Miller | Tyler Ferguson | Michel Otañez

Texas Rangers – Bouncing back after suffering his first blown save, Kirby Yates preserved a one-run win with a clean ninth for his 22nd save. He threw 15 pitches (80 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (20 SwStr%) while recording two strikeouts. This snapped his streak of runs allowed at two.

José Ureña collected his fourth win. He logged four scoreless innings, scattering two hits and issuing two walks while striking out three.

Hierarchy remains: Kirby Yates | David Robertson | Andrew Chafin

National League – Full Game Recaps, August 19

Los Angeles Dodgers – Completing a combined shutout and recording his first save since July 23, Evan Phillips nailed down his 16th save with a clean ninth while striking out two against Seattle. He threw 13 pitches (9 strikes – 69.2 Strike%) and induced one whiff. He’s allowed an unearned run across nine appearances in August with 13 strikeouts against one walk.

Joe Kelly retired the side and struck out one in the eighth, securing his 13th hold.

Updated Hierarchy: Michael Kopech | Evan Phillips | Daniel Hudson

New York Mets – After retiring the side in the top of the ninth and keeping the game tied, Edwin Díaz collected his fourth win courtesy of a walk-off home run in the bottom of the inning. He threw 11 pitches (72.7 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (27.3 SwStr%) against Baltimore’s 5-6-7 lineup pocket. He’s been scoreless in six of his last seven appearances with this win, two saves, and 12 strikeouts against two walks.

José Buttó allowed a walk during a scoreless eighth.

Hierarchy Remains: Edwin Díaz | Phil Maton | Reed Garrett

San Diego Padres – Although he could not complete the combined shutout, Robert Suarez recorded his 28th save. He issued Edouard Julien a two-out walk, who took second on defensive indifference, then scored on Christian Vazquez’s RBI single. Suarez produced a game-ending groundout against pinch-hitter José Miranda. He threw 22 pitches (12 strikes – 54.5 Strike%) and induced one whiff. He’s converted all five save chances in August but has allowed a run in three of his last five.

Tanner Scott notched his sixth hold with a clean top of the eighth.
Jason Adam fired a clean seventh, striking out the side for his 21st hold.

Hierarchy remains: Robert Suarez | Tanner Scott | Jason Adam

San Francisco Giants – Holding on for his first save, Jordan Hicks navigated around two hits for a scoreless ninth, securing a two-run win over the White Sox. He threw 22 pitches (16 strikes – 72.7 Strike%) without a whiff. He’s been scoreless in all six relief outings this month.

Tyler Rogers let both inherited runners score, yielding two hits and recording a strikeout over two-thirds of the eighth for his 26th hold.
Spencer Bivens gave up two hits and two earned runs over one-third of the eighth.
Erik Miller tossed a scoreless seventh, walking and striking out one.

Hierarchy remains: Ryan Walker | Tyler Rogers | Jordan Hicks

Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community. Stay safe and be well.

Statistical Credits:

Monkey Bytes: August 19

Somedays provide more angst than others in the world of high-leverage relievers. Yesterday, they offered an anxiety-driven afternoon. Tampa Bay closer Pete Fairbanks not only suffered his fourth blown save, he allowed a game-tying three-run home run before leaving with the team’s trainer. Early reports speculate on the potential for a lat injury, which could end his season depending on the severity. While fantasy managers prefer clarity, this may result in the Rays mixing-and-matching for saves over the next two weeks or the rest of the season.

For Sunday’s 15-game slate, 13 games were decided by two or fewer runs, seven were one-run contests, and four were extended into extra innings. Seven relievers recorded wins and nine secured saves. Our condensed game recaps capture the high-leverage events of interest, but those seeking deeper analysis should reference the specific team pages, or this post will be too long.

Closer CliffsNotes

Justin Martinez (ARI) tossed a scoreless bottom of the 11th but suffered his fourth loss in the 12th. Following a sacrifice bunt and a walk, he gave up Dylan Carlson’s walk-off RBI single. He absorbed two losses in Tampa Bay, throwing 18 strikes of his 34 pitches (52.9 Strike%).

Raisel Iglesias (ATL) shut the door on his 26th save with a clean ninth and recorded one strikeout. This extended his scoreless streak to 12 games, during which he’s converted five saves with 16 strikeouts versus one walk across 13 innings.

Seranthony Domínguez (BAL) quelled a bases-loaded situation in the top of the eighth on an inning-ending popout. He recorded his fourth save, third with Baltimore, despite giving up Rob Refsnyder’s solo home run in the ninth while retiring three batters via strikeout. He’s been scoreless in eight of ten games with the Orioles, and both runs have been scored on solo home runs.

Victor Vodnik (COL) issued a one-out walk during a scoreless ninth and notched his ninth save, securing a one-run win over the Padres. He’s converted five of six save opportunities in August but has posted more walks (8) than strikeouts (6) over his 8.1 innings this month.

Beau Brieske (DET) collected his second win even though he let the “place” runner score in the top of the tenth, courtesy of a walk-off rally in Williamsport. He allowed a hit and recorded a strikeout against the Yankees.

Josh Hader (HOU) nailed down his 27th save with a clean top of the ninth and two strikeouts while preserving a combined shutout against the White Sox. This extended his scoreless streak to nine games, during which he’s recorded one win and seven saves, with 12 strikeouts against three walks through 9.1 innings.

Lucas Erceg (KCR) was summoned with the bases loaded and one out in the seventh. He retired both batters via strikeout, then worked around a one-out single in the eighth for 1.2 scoreless frames. He secured his 18th hold and recorded four strikeouts, but this usage pattern should remind fantasy managers he’s the highest-leveraged reliever, not the closer.

Michael Kopech (LAD) notched his second save with the Dodgers and 11th of the season with a clean ninth, preserving a one-run win in St. Louis. He did work with reduced velocity after appearing three times in four days. He will get at least two days off, per Dave Roberts. Kopech has been scoreless through 9.1 innings since the trade deadline with 13 strikeouts against one walk (40 K-BB%) and retired 28 of 30 batters faced (0.22 WHIP).

Calvin Faucher (MIA) navigated around consecutive singles by retiring the next three Mets, two via strikeout, securing his third save and preserving a one-run win.

Jared Koenig (MIL) recorded his first career save with a clean ninth against Cleveland’s 2-3-4 hitters. After the game, manager Pat Murphy confirmed Devin Williams was unavailable after appearing in three of the previous four contests.

Jhoan Durán (MIN) appeared for the fourth time in five days, suffering his sixth loss in the bottom of the tenth. After recording a strikeout, he gave up Josh Jung’s walk-off RBI single.

Reed Garrett (NYM) stranded two runners in the seventh but issued two walks, resulting in an earned run and his fifth loss in the eighth. Phil Maton let one of two inherited runners score on Derek Hill’s RBI single but worked 1.1 scoreless innings.

Clay Holmes (NYY) suffered his MLB-leading tenth blown save. He allowed Colt Keith’s one-out double and Jace Jung’s game-tying RBI single in the bottom of the ninth. Despite his recent rough patch, Aaron Boone said Holmes will be his closer. Mark Leiter Jr. gave up two hits and two runs (one earned) during his fifth loss and a third blown save in the bottom of the tenth.

Dany Jiménez (OAK) took over in the top of the tenth against the Giants and served up two home runs, resulting in three runs (two earned), and his third loss of the season. Mason Miller fired a clean ninth and recorded two strikeouts, keeping the game tied.

Matt Strahm (PHI) took over a tied game at the top of the eighth. He allowed a lead-off single and a walk. After a sacrifice put runners in scoring position, a go-ahead sacrifice fly resulted in his second loss.

Ryan Walker (SFG) logged two innings while registering his eighth win. He returned for the tenth after tossing a scoreless ninth in a tied contest. He allowed the “place” runner to score on Brent Rooker’s RBI single but prevented further damage by retiring the next three hitters via strikeout. Walker finished with two hits allowed, an unearned run, and a walk while striking out five.

Edwin Uceta (TBR) navigated around a bunt single for a scoreless top of the 12th while recording two strikeouts. He collected his first win courtesy of a walk-off rally in the bottom of the inning. He’s been scoreless in 10 of 11 appearances in the second half, with 23 strikeouts against two walks across 16 innings.

Andrew Chafin (TEX) retired the side in the top of the tenth and struck out one. He collected his fourth win courtesy of a walk-off rally in the bottom of the inning. Kirby Yates suffered his first blown save, allowing Carlos Santana’s game-tying solo home run in the ninth.

Chad Green (TOR) navigated around Cody Bellinger’s single and stolen base for a scoreless ninth and his 13th save during a 1-0 win in Chicago. Despite allowing a run in three of his previous four appearances, he’s converted all six save chances in August.

Kyle Finnegan (WSH) gave up a lead-off single and then induced a double play groundout, followed by an inning-ending grounder, preserving a two-run win in Philadelphia for his 31st save.

Vulture Save Options for Monday, August 19

Tyler Rogers (SFG): Walker logged two innings and threw 35 pitches on Sunday.
Manuel Rodríguez (TBR): Uceta and Cleavinger have appeared in back-to-back games. Expect fluidity in usage patterns with Fairbanks sidelined.
Paul Sewald (ARI): Martinez has pitched in two of the last three. Will Sewald receive his first save chance since July?
Cole Sands (MIN): Durán’s worked in four of the previous five days, and Jax in three of the last four.
Kris Bubic (KCR): Erceg tossed 28 pitches during a 1.2 inning Sunday.

Vulture Save Stashes for Tuesday, August 20

David Robertson (TEX): If Yates pitches tonight, it will be consecutive appearances.
Bryan Abreu (HOU): If Hader pitches today, it will be his second straight outing. Abreu pitched on Saturday and Sunday, so he should be rested on Monday. If not, Tayler Scott would be in line for Tuesday.

What to Watch For (August 19-through-25)

Arizona Diamondbacks: Torey Lovullo has deployed Justin Martinez as his closer but has not confirmed his role in press conferences. He’s very loyal to veterans, and a strong week by Paul Sewald could propel him back into the “closer” conversation.

Baltimore Orioles: Seranthony Domínguez has taken over the primary save share. How will the team handle getting there? Dillon Tate and Bruce Zimmerman could be recalled before the end of August. The biggest question remains: can the team help Craig Kimbrel find his first-half form?

Boston Red Sox: Can the team remain in the mix until Justin Slaten and Liam Hendriks can bolster the bullpen?

Chicago Cubs: Héctor Neris has a clause in his contract and receives a player option if he appears in 60 games or records a game-finished in 45. Entering this scoring period, he’s pitched in 46 games and finished 33. If the team prefers letting him walk at the end of the season, will Jorge López receive more save chances over the last six weeks?

Chicago White Sox: Will the team keep using Chad Kuhl in save chances, sparse as they are? Will anyone emerge down the stretch for the closer role in 2025? Should we care?

Colorado Rockies: Will Victor Vodnik remain the closer despite a negative K-BB percentage in August? He’s posted a 2.04 WHIP and a 6.34 SIERA across 8.1 innings this month.

Detroit Tigers: Has Jason Foley reclaimed the primary save share for Detroit? He recorded his 16th save and has pitched in the ninth inning in his last three appearances.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Does Michael Kopech parlay his strong start with the Dodgers into a more prominent leverage role in 2025, too? Should fantasy managers be concerned with his velocity dip on Sunday in St. Louis?

Milwaukee Brewers: What workload can Devin Williams handle over the last six weeks? Three appearances in four days prove encouraging, but when Trevor Megill returns, will they press this type of usage pattern with “The Airbender” or keep him rested for the postseason?

Minnesota Twins: With Rocco Baldelli pursuing the division, not just the playoffs, does this keep Cole Sands on the periphery of fantasy value in deeper formats? He’s recorded two wins and two saves since July 22. He’s one of four relievers with at least two wins and two saves in this timeframe: Robert Suarez (three wins, four saves), Joel Payamps (two wins, two saves), and Josh Hader (two wins, seven saves).

Philadelphia Phillies: Can they get their leverage ladder back on track? It’s been tough sledding in the second half.

Pittsburgh Pirates: How does David Bednar finish the season? This may determine his fantasy value for 2025. He showed signs in his most recent save while navigating around a bases-loaded situation against Seattle, but can he carry this over for the last six weeks?

San Francisco Giants: When will the team recall Camilo Doval, and will he receive save opportunities in September? Bob Melvin left the door open for the demoted closer:

Tampa Bay Rays: With Pete Fairbanks potentially out for the remainder of the season, pending his MRI, we project a match-up-based bullpen with Edwin Uceta, Garrett Cleavinger, Manuel Rodríguez, Colin Poche, and Kevin Kelly in the mix for saves. Here are the team’s Win Probability Added results for the second half through Sunday’s extra-inning win over Arizona:

Texas Rangers: There have been conflicting reports on how the team will handle the end of the season as its hopes of making the playoffs fade. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic speculated that the team could put some players on waivers to save money, but Evan Grant, the team’s beat writer for The Dallas Morning News, reported Chris Young does not want to take this route.

Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community. Stay safe and be well.

Statistical Credits:

Monkey Bytes: August 18

Baseball Reference identifies a blowout as a game decided by five or more runs. Saturday’s slate featured six such contests, though two provided a save. Relievers only recorded two wins and seven saves, though four were of the ancillary variety. Our condensed recaps cover the high-leverage events of interest and some relievers getting in work in yesterday’s action.

Closer CliffsNotes

Paul Sewald (ARI) tossed a scoreless bottom of the eighth in an eventual loss. He allowed a hit and hit a batter while recording all three outs via strikeout. He’s been scoreless through six outings in August with eight strikeouts against two walks.

Jorge López (CHC) gave up Addison Barger’s lead-off home run in the top of the ninth, then struck out Toronto’s 1-2-3 hitters, including a game-ending strikeout of Vlad Guerrero Jr. for his third save, first as a Cub. López had his 14-game scoreless streak snapped, but he’s produced a 23:7 K:BB since June 28.

Alexis Díaz (CIN) tossed a scoreless top of the seventh during a lopsided loss, allowing a hit and striking out one against the Royals’ 5-6-7-8 batters. He threw 10 pitches (80 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (30 SwStr%). He’s been scoreless in six of his last seven with seven strikeouts against two walks over 6.2 innings.

Jason Foley (DET) completed a combined shutout with a scoreless ninth. He navigated around Aaron Judge’s leadoff double and a walk while striking out one in a non-save appearance.

Calvin Faucher (MIA) worked a clean bottom of the eighth and recorded a strikeout in a shutout loss against the Mets. He threw 11 pitches (63.6 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (27.3 SwStr%). He’s been scoreless over his last four appearances but has not received a save chance on August 7.

Cole Sands (MIN) notched his fourth save with a clean bottom of the ninth and striking out one, finishing a three-run win against Texas.

Devin Williams (MIL) recorded his fourth save with a clean top of the ninth, preserving a one-run win against Cleveland’s 2-3-4 lineup pocket on ten pitches.

Michel Otañez (OAK) navigated around a two-out infield single and a walk for a scoreless ninth while recording his first major league save. He threw 26 pitches (17 strikes – 65.4 Strike%) and generated six whiffs (23.1 SwStr%) with three strikeouts, completing the combined shutout of the Giants.

David Bednar (PIT) inherited a bases-loaded with no-out situation in the top of the ninth and retired three straight batters, two via strikeout, for his 22nd save. He only threw nine pitches and produced three whiffs, snapping his six-game streak of allowing at least a run.

Ryan Helsley (STL) nailed down his MLB-leading 38th save with a clean ninth and recorded a strikeout during a two-run win over the Dodgers. He’s registered a save in five straight outings.

Richard Lovelady (TBR) took over a bases-loaded situation in the top of the eighth with two outs and stymied the rally. He returned for the ninth and recorded his first save, throwing 1.1 clean frames in a five-run win over Arizona. He’s the ninth pitcher with a save for the Rays this season.

Vulture Save Options for Sunday, August 18

Aroldis Chapman (PIT): Bednar has appeared in two straight games.
Josh Winckowski (BOS): Jansen, Martin, and Sims have pitched the previous two games.

Three Takeaways

Sewald and velocity: During his team’s eventual loss, Paul Sewald recorded his sixth scoreless appearance in August. He’s collected a win this month but has not received a save opportunity since July 31. His manager has not closed the door for the veteran to get save chances through the end of the season, but with 38 games remaining, the window of opportunity continues to shrink. Fantasy managers should monitor his velocity closely, Justin Martinez’s walk rate, and usage patterns over the next two weeks. Sewald has seen a slight uptick in recent outings, and he admitted the oblique injury earlier this season affected his results. Mining his results from Statcast since his arrival in Arizona, here are Sewald’s splits when he throws his four-seam fastball above and below 92 m.p.h. since August 5, 2023:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/EpkpW/6/

Cubs hierarchy tweak: Although Porter Hodge has performed well in a set-up capacity, with Héctor Neris unavailable after throwing 33 pitches on Friday, Craig Counsell called upon Jorge López for the save. He responded with his third of the season and first as a Cub after allowing a lead-off home run by striking out the first three hitters in Toronto’s lineup, including a game-ending one of Vlad Guerrero Jr. Neris remains atop our hierarchy. If his past struggles resurface, it could open the door for more López save chances.
A vulture in Sands: Usage patterns and performance dictate value in head-to-head leagues. Hitting on the right stream option can swing a week. Over his last 10 appearances, Cole Sands has recorded two wins and two saves with 12 strikeouts against one walk and a 0.975 WHIP across 12.1 innings since July 22. He’s not perfect and not assured this productivity level will continue, but with the Twins pushing for the division and a spot in the playoffs, he may be a sneaky streamer moving forward.

American League – Game Recaps for August 17

Minnesota Twins – Providing his teammates with much-needed rest, Cole Sands capped his team’s comeback rally by securing his fourth save, preserving a three-run win in Texas. He retired the side and recorded a strikeout on nine pitches (77.8 Strike%) with two whiffs (22.2 SwStr%).

Jorge Alcala notched his 15th hold, firing a clean eighth and striking out one against the Rangers’ 3-4-5 lineup pocket.
Ronny Henriquez logged two scoreless frames, scattered two hits, and recorded a strikeout while collecting his first win.

Hierarchy remains: Jhoan Durán | Griffin Jax | Jorge Alcala

Oakland A’s – After recording two strikeouts in the top of the ninth, Michel Otañez allowed an infield single and a walk before producing a game-ending strikeout of Casey Schmitt for his first career save. He threw 26 pitches (17 strikes – 65.4 Strike%) and generated six whiffs (23.1 SwStr%) while completing the combined shutout.

T.J. McFarland stranded a runner and retired both batters in the eighth for his 14th hold.
Grant Holman made his major league debut by stranding two runners in the seventh and gave up a hit during two-thirds scoreless while recording his first hold.
Scott Alexander worked two-thirds scoreless in the seventh despite yielding a hit and a walk.

Adjusted Hierarchy: Mason Miller | Tyler Ferguson | Michel Otañez

National League – Game Recaps for August 17

Chicago Cubs – Pitching through the rain, Jorge López lost his 14-game scoreless streak, allowing Addison Barger’s lead-off home run in the top of the ninth. He recovered with consecutive strikeouts of George Springer, Daulton Varsho, and Vlad Guerrero Jr. for his first save as a Cub and his third of the season. López threw 14 pitches (11 strikes – 78.6 Strike%) and produced four whiffs (28.6 SwStr%). He’s been moving up the leverage ladder and may push Héctor Neris aside for more save chances.

Porter Hodge notched his ninth hold, issuing two walks and recording two strikeouts over 1.2 scoreless innings.
Drew Smyly gave up three hits and an earned run in one-third of the seventh, getting credit for his seventh hold.
Julian Merryweather worked a scoreless sixth for his second hold.
Tyson MIiler secured his ninth hold with a scoreless fifth. Nate Pearson collected his second win with two scoreless innings, navigating around a hit and two walks while striking out one.

Updated Hierarchy: Héctor Neris | Jorge López | Porter Hodge

Milwaukee Brewers – Shutting the door on his fourth save, Devin Williams fired a clean top of the ninth against the Guardians’ 2-3-4 lineup pocket. He threw 10 pitches (50 Strike%) and induced two whiffs. He’s converted a save in his last four outings, recording six strikeouts while retiring all 12 batters.

Jared Koenig secured his sixth hold with a clean eighth and struck out the side.
Joel Payamps worked a clean seventh and recorded a strikeout for his 14th hold.

Hierarchy remains: Devin Williams | Joel Payamps | Bryan Hudson

Pittsburgh Pirates – Summoned with the bases loaded and no outs, David Bednar inherited a save situation with a five-run lead. He induced a shallow flyout by Victor Robles, then produced consecutive Randy Arozarena and Julio Rodríguez strikeouts, stranding all three runners and securing his 22nd save. He threw nine pitches (77.8 Strike%) and generated three whiffs (33.3 SwStr%). His split finger had much better movement in this outing. This snapped his six-game streak of allowing at least a run, and he retired five of his last six batters via strikeout.

Domingo Germán created the mess, issuing a walk and hitting two batters, prompting his removal in the top of the ninth.
Dennis Santana logged two scoreless frames and recorded three strikeouts for his second hold.
Kyle Nicolas retired his only batter on a strikeout and notched his sixth hold in the sixth.

Hierarchy remains: David Bednar | Aroldis Chapman | Kyle Nicolas

St. Louis Cardinals – Retaking the major league lead with his 38th save, Ryan Helsley fired a clean top of the ninth and recorded a strikeout, finishing a two-run win against the Dodgers. He only needed six pitches (83.3 Strike%) and induced one whiff (16.7 SwStr%) while facing the 4-5-6 lineup pocket. He’s converted a save in his last five appearances and been scoreless in four.

JoJo Romero secured his 29th hold, retiring the side in the eighth.

Hierarchy remains: Ryan Helsley | Andrew Kittredge | JoJo Romero

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Monkey Bytes: August 17

Even though it was not a full slate, Friday’s 14 games featured 11 games decided by three or fewer runs, nine by two or less, and seven one-run contests. Relievers recorded six wins, though a blown save accompanied two. High-leverage relievers also secured eight saves in a stress-filled slate.

Our condensed game recaps cover all of the high-leverage outings of interest. Plus, today’s Three Takeaways looks into Los Angeles relievers bringing the heat during their save chances last night, another bumpy save with David Bednar, and Craig Kimbrel’s decline continues with a hat tip for one of my Dad’s favorite movies, “The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly.”

Closer CliffsNotes

Justin Martinez (ARI) took over a tied game in the bottom of the ninth. After issuing a one-out walk, a two-out single scored the runner on a fielding error in centerfield, handing Martinez his third loss. He finished two-thirds of an inning with two hits, an unearned run, and a walk while striking out two.

Craig Kimbrel (BAL) allowed a walk and two home runs, resulting in three earned runs in the top of the seventh with his four-seam fastball averaging 92.7 m.p.h.

Kenley Jansen (BOS) shut the door on his 23rd save with a clean bottom of the ninth and two strikeouts versus the Orioles’ 2-3-4 lineup pocket. He’s not allowed a baserunner through 4.2 innings in August while converting all three save chances.

Héctor Neris (CHC) had been pitching well in the second half, but with one out and the bases loaded, he was called for a balk, then allowed a two-out, two-RBI triple, ceding a three-run lead. He was charged with his fifth blown save and his first since June 17. Tyson Miller emerged with his fourth win courtesy of a clean top of the tenth and a walk-off rally in the bottom of the inning.

Chad Kuhl (CHW) held on for his first save during a one-run over the Astros. He gave up Jon Singleton’s solo shot in the bottom of the ninth and recorded two strikeouts in his appearance. Justin Anderson was awarded his first win. He logged 1.1 scoreless frames.

Victor Vodnik (COL) finished a four-run win in a non-save capacity. He dealt with traffic. His outing began with a hitter reaching on an error, followed by a single. He induced a double play groundout, issued a walk, and induced a game-ending groundout for a scoreless ninth.

Ben Joyce (LAA) recorded his second save. He took over in the eighth with two runners on and one out, inducing an inning-ending double play groundout. Against the top of Atlanta’s lineup in the ninth, he worked around Marcell Ozuna’s two-out single and recorded a strikeout for 1.2 scoreless frames.

Michael Kopech (LAD) nailed down his first save with the Dodgers, firing a clean bottom of the ninth and striking out two while preserving a one-run win in St. Louis. He’s the 12th reliever with a save this season which ties a team record set in 2022. He’s also retired 25 of 27 batters faced since the trade deadline with 13 strikeouts.

Joel Payamps (MIL) filled in capably for his closer, securing his sixth save with a clean top of the ninth and striking out one against the Guardians.

Jhoan Durán (MIN) appeared for a third straight contest and notched his 18th save with a scoreless bottom of the ninth. He allowed a two-out infield hit but produced a game-ending strikeout, preserving the one-run win.

Clay Holmes (NYY) nailed down his 26th save with a clean ninth and recorded two strikeouts while preserving a combined shutout in Detroit.

Carlos Estevez (PHI) could not finish the combined shutout, giving up three consecutive hits in the top of the ninth, and suffered his fourth blown save. However, he collected his third win courtesy of a walk-off rally in the bottom of the inning. Estévez allowed three hits and two earned runs while striking out two on 27 pitches.

David Bednar (PIT) allowed a run for a sixth straight appearance but held on for his 21st save during a two-run win. He gave up two hits and an earned run while recording three strikeouts against the Mariners.

Andrew Kittredge (STL) suffered his sixth blown save. He let both inherited runners score on three hits, including a three-run home run by Kevin Kiermaier, ceding the lead in the top of the sixth without retiring a batter.

Pete Fairbanks (TBR) not only lost a nine-game scoreless streak, but his stretch of 13 straight saves also ended on Corbin Carroll’s game-tying two-run home run in the top of the ninth. He collected his third win, benefiting from his team’s walk-off rally in the bottom of the inning.

Chad Green (TOR) took over a tied game in the bottom of the tenth and issued a walk, followed by Seiya Suzuki’s walk-off RBI single, resulting in his third loss.

Kyle Finnegan (WSH) suffered his sixth loss on a walk-off in Philadelphia. After allowing two hits, he intentionally walked Kyle Schwarber before giving up Trea Turner’s walk-off single without recording an out.

Vulture Save Option for Saturday, August 17

Griffin Jax (MIN): Durán has appeared in three straight; will Jax be next? It feels like Rocco Baldelli’s all in on pursuing the Guardians. If Jax gets today off, Jorge Alcala would be in line for the vulture save.
Aroldis Chapman (PIT): Bednar threw 26 pitches on Friday, so the team may prefer giving him today off.

Vulture Save Stashes for Sunday, August 18

Paul Sewald (ARI): I’m not sure if he qualifies as a vulture, but if Martinez pitches again on Saturday, it will be consecutive outings, leaving the wily veteran in play for the save on Sunday.

Jake Cousins (NYY): If Holmes, Weaver, and Kahnle pitch today, it will be back-to-back outings for all three, leaving Cousins atop the hierarchy on Sunday.

Three Takeaways

The Good: Michael Kopech (LAD) and Ben Joyce (LAA) recorded saves on Friday night. Kopech nailed down his first with the Dodgers and his tenth of the season with a clean ninth while striking out two. He averaged 99.9 m.p.h. with his four-seam fastball and threw his highest maximum speed this season, reaching 102.6 in this outing. Joyce took over with two runners on and one out in the eighth, inducing an inning-ending double play groundout. He finished his second save with 1.2 scoreless frames, though he only faced four hitters and recorded a strikeout. He averaged 102.7 m.p.h. with his four-seam fastball with a max velocity of 104 m.p.h. Per Statcast, he’s thrown 184 of his 199 four-seams this year at 100 m.p.h. or faster.
The Bad: For a sixth straight appearance, David Bednar allowed at least a run during his 21st save. He gave up Jorge Polanco’s solo home run leading off in the ninth and a single before retiring the next three batters via strikeout. For the season, his ERA (5.83) sits over two runs above his SIERA (3.80), but his WHIP sits at 1.37 after this contest. Since the All-Star break, he’s posted a 2.36 WHIP and a 5.9 K-BB percentage. Over his last six games, he’s converted three of five save chances with two losses, nine runs (eight earned), an 8:7 K:BB, a .387 batting average against, and a 1.190 on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS). He remains the team’s preferred save option, but stashing Aroldis Chapman for ancillary saves may not be a bad idea.
The Ugly: It’s tough seeing the recent results for the reliever with the fifth-most saves all-time, but Craig Kimbrel‘s struggles continued in the seventh inning against Boston last night. He allowed a walk and three earned runs while serving up two home runs without a strikeout. Of bigger concern, he averaged 92.7 m.p.h. with his four-seam fastball in this contest. He’s given up at least a run in five of his last eight games, allowing nine hits, ten runs (eight earned), nine walks against eight strikeouts, a .290 batting average against, and a 1.055 OPS. He’s only throwing strikes in 55.1 percent of his pitches in these contests, resulting in a 2.35 WHIP, 6.25 SIERA, and a 9.6 swinging strike percentage. He may need a reset or a stint on the injured list, but he should not be in lineups moving forward.

American League – Full Recaps for August 17

Boston Red Sox – Shutting the door on his 23rd save and the 443rd of his career, Kenley Jansen retired the side and recorded two strikeouts against the Orioles’ 2-3-4 lineup pocket. He threw 12 pitches (66.7 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (25 SwStr%). He’s not allowed a baserunner through four appearances in August and converted all three saves with seven strikeouts in 4.2 innings.

Chris Martin allowed three hits and an earned run during his 11th hold in the eighth.
Luis García gave up four hits and three earned runs in the seventh.
Lucas Sims retired all three batters and stranded a runner in the sixth for his 15th hold.
Bailey Horn stranded two runners in the fifth, issued a walk, and recorded two strikeouts in two-thirds scoreless, securing his third hold.

Hierarchy remains: Kenley Jansen | Chris Martin | Lucas Sims

Los Angeles Angels – Summoned with two runners on and one out in the top of the eighth, Ben Joyce induced an inning-ending double play groundout. He returned against the top of Atlanta’s lineup on the ninth, worked around Marcell Ozuna’s two-out single, and recorded a strikeout in 1.2 scoreless frames for his second save. He threw 14 pitches (71.4 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (21.4 SwStr%).

Matt Moore gave up a hit and a walk over one-third scoreless in the eighth, getting credit for his tenth hold.
Hunter Strickland navigated around two hits and recorded a strikeout in a scoreless seventh, securing his eighth hold.
Brock Burke collected his first win, logging 1.2 scoreless innings, issuing two walks, and striking out two.

Updated Hierarchy: Ben Joyce | Hunter Strickland | Matt Moore

Minnesota Twins – Appearing for a third straight game, Jhoan Durán secured his 18th save with a scoreless ninth. He allowed a two-out infield single before producing a game-ending strikeout. He threw 13 pitches (9 strikes – 69.2 Strike%) and generated four whiffs (30.8 SwStr%). He’s converted three saves in August and been scoreless in five of six outings this month.

Griffin Jax locked down his 20th hold with a clean eighth and recorded two strikeouts.
Steven Okert notched his seventh hold, stranding a runner while retiring both batters in the seventh, one via strikeout.
Cole Sands escaped with his fourth hold, scattering three hits and striking out one in two-thirds scoreless.

Hierarchy remains: Jhoan Durán | Griffin Jax | Jorge Alcala

New York Yankees – Completing a combined shutout and his 26th save, Clay Holmes retired the side and recorded two strikeouts in Detroit. He threw 14 pitches (71.4 Strike%) and induced two whiffs (14.3 SwStr%). He’s converted three straight save chances and five of his last six.

Tommy Kahnle fired a clean eighth, securing his tenth hold.
Luke Weaver allowed a hit and struck out one in a scoreless seventh, notching his 19th hold.

Hierarchy remains: Clay Holmes | Luke Weaver | Jake Cousins

National League – Full Recaps for August 17

Arizona Diamondbacks – Taking over a tied game in the bottom of the ninth, Justin Martinez suffered his third loss. He issued a one-out walk and gave up a walk-off single, with a fielding error by Jake McCarthy scoring the walk-off run. Martinez finished his outing with a hit, an unearned run, and a walk while striking out two on 14 pitches (50 Strike%) with two whiffs (14.3 SwStr%).

Ryan Thompson was tagged with his seventh blown save. He allowed four hits, three earned runs, and a walk while striking out two in two-thirds of the eighth.
A.J. Puk notched his 11th hold, stranding a runner and retiring all three batters he faced, one via strikeout.

Hierarchy remains: Justin Martinez | A.J. Puk | Paul Sewald

Chicago Cubs – Benefiting from a walk-off rally, Tyson Miller notched his fourth win after retiring the side in the top of the tenth.

Héctor Neris suffered his fifth blown save and first since June 17 in the ninth. His outing began with consecutive singles, and a one-out hit loaded the bases. With one out, he was called for a balk, scoring a runner, before eventually recording a strikeout. However, with two outs, George Springer launched a game-tying two-RBI triple. Neris finished with four hits and three earned runs while striking out two. He had been scoreless in eight of his previous ten games in the second half.
Porter Hodge secured his eighth hold with a scoreless eighth inning, giving up a hit and striking out two.
Jorge López fired a clean seventh and struck out two for his eighth hold. This extended his scoreless streak to 14 games, and he’s posted 20 strikeouts against six walks with a 1.125 WHIP over his last 16 innings.
Drew Smyly worked a clean sixth while striking out the side for his sixth hold.

Updated Hierarchy: Héctor Neris | Porter Hodge | Jorge López

Los Angeles Dodgers – Summoned with a one-run lead, Michael Kopech recorded his first save with his new team and his tenth of the season. He retired the side against the Cardinals’ 9-1-2 lineup pocket and recorded two strikeouts. This save tied a franchise record set in 2022, becoming the 12th pitcher with at least a save for Los Angeles this season. He threw 13 pitches (69.2 Strike%) and induced two whiffs (15.4 SwStr%). He’s allowed two baserunners of his 27 batters faced since the trade deadline with 13 strikeouts (48.1 K%).

Joe Kelly secured his 12th hold with a scoreless eighth, giving up a walk and striking out one.
Evan Phillips notched his fourth hold, walking one and striking out one.
Anthony Banda navigated around two hits and recorded a strikeout during thirds scoreless in the sixth for his eighth hold, though he let both inherited runners score.

Updated Hierarchy: *Daniel Hudson | *Michael Kopech | Evan Phillips

*= closer-by-committee

Milwaukee Brewers – Filling in capably during his closer’s day off, Joel Payamps nailed down his sixth save with a clean top of the ninth and recorded a strikeout. He threw 14 pitches (9 strikes – 64.3 Strike%) and induced one whiff against the Guardians’ 8-9-1 hitters.

Nick Mears notched his 12th hold, striking out both batters in the eighth.
Bryse Wilson gave up three hits, including two home runs and three earned runs, during one-third of the eighth.
Elvis Peguero worked a scoreless seventh, issuing a walk and striking out two.

Hierarchy remains: Devin Williams | Joel Payamps | Bryan Hudson

Philadelphia Phillies – Suffering his first blown save since April 16, Carlos Estévez allowed an opposite-field, bloop, and José Tena’s RBI single before recording an out. The game-tying run scored on a fielder’s choice RBI groundout. Estévez bore down, recording consecutive strikeouts, keeping the game tied. He collected his second win courtesy of a walk-off rally in the bottom of the inning. Of more considerable concern, he’s allowed a run in four of his first eight appearances since the trade deadline while converting one save.

Jeff Hoffman stranded a runner and secured his 17th hold, retiring both batters in the eighth, one via strikeout.
Matt Strahm stranded two runners in the seventh and left with a runner on in the eighth, resulting in his 12th hold.

Hierarchy remains: Carlos Estévez | Jeff Hoffman | Matt Strahm

Pittsburgh Pirates – It was difficult, but David Bednar held on for his 21st save, snapping his team’s 10-game losing streak. However, he did allow Jorge Polanco’s solo home run, extending his streak of giving up a run to six straight appearances. Bednar finished with two hits, an earned run, and three strikeouts in this outing. He threw 26 pitches (15 strikes – 57.7 Strike%) and produced six whiffs (23.1 SwStr%). He’s converted three of his last five save opportunities.

Aroldis Chapman fired a clean eighth and recorded a strikeout for his 19th hold.
Kyle Nicolas tossed a clean seventh, securing his fifth hold.

Hierarchy remains: David Bednar | Aroldis Chapman | Kyle Nicolas

Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community. Stay safe and be well.

Statistical Credits: