Monkey Bytes: August 26

Sunday featured a bevy of high-leverage events of interest. Seven relievers recorded a win, including two on walk-off rallies (Pittsburgh and San Diego). Eight relievers secured a save, including an ancillary one by Anthony Banda (LAD). Our condensed game recaps cover the outcomes of interest from yesterday’s slate.

Closer CliffsNotes

  • Justin Martinez (ARI) finished his sixth save despite allowing Tyler O’Neill’s solo home run during a two-run win in Boston. He’s converted six of eight save opportunities in August with 21 strikeouts against seven walks. 
  • Luke Jackson (ATL) took over a tied game in the top of the seventh and suffered his third loss. He allowed two hits and three runs (two earned) while striking out one in one-third of the inning. 
  • Burch Smith (BAL) served up two solo home runs in the top of the seventh against Houston, resulting in his first loss. 
  • Alexis Díaz (CIN) suffered his fourth loss and a third blown save. He recorded an out, hit Bryan De La Cruz with a pitch, and served up Bryan Reynolds’ walk-off two-run home run. Díaz has not converted a save since August 13 and allowed a home run in two of his last three appearances.
  • Emmanuel Clase (CLE) shut the door on his American League-leading 38th save with a clean ninth while striking out the side against Texas. He only needed 12 pitches and has converted 25 straight saves since May 20. 
  • Josh Hader (HOU) began his outing by identifying mound issues and walking Gunnar Henderson, who led off the bottom of the ninth. Hader rebounded with a lineout and a game-ending double play groundout for a scoreless outing and his 28th save. He’s only allowed one unearned run across ten appearances in August while recording two wins and converting all seven save chances. 
  • Anthony Banda (LAD) was summoned with a two-run lead and worked around a one-out single for a scoreless ninth, securing his second save. He’s been scoreless in 10 of 11 outings in August, with 14 strikeouts against two walks while converting two saves.
  • Jhoan Durán (MIN) allowed a one-out single, followed by a fielder’s choice throwing error, putting runners on second and third with one out. After recording a strikeout, he gave up Lars Nootbar’s go-ahead two-RBI single, resulting in his seventh loss and a second blown save. He finished with two hits, two unearned runs, and strikeouts. 
  • Edwin Díaz (NYM) was tasked with a tied game in the bottom of the ninth. He retired Jake Cronenworth via strikeout, then gave up Jackson Merrill’s walk-off home run, resulting in his second loss. 
  • Mason Miller (OAK) locked down his 21st save while retiring all four batters faced, one via strikeout, preserving a one-run win over the Brewers. He’s converted nine straight save chances since June 18 while posting 26 strikeouts against five walks over 18 innings. 
  • Aroldis Chapman (PIT) worked a scoreless top of the ninth, giving up a hit and striking out two. He collected his fifth win courtesy of a walk-off home run in the bottom of the inning. He’s been scoreless in his last nine outings with 17 strikeouts against one walk across nine innings.
  • Robert Suarez (SDP) fired a clean top of the ninth and recorded a strikeout against the Mets, keeping the game tied. He collected his eighth win on Jackson Merrill’s walk-off blast in the bottom of the inning. Through nine outings in August, he’s recorded two wins and converted all six save chances. 
  • Andrés Muñoz (SEA) navigated around two walks and recorded two strikeouts during a scoreless ninth for his 19th save. This represents his first save since July 28, and he’s been scoreless over his last two appearances. 
  • Ryan Helsley (STL) allowed a lead-off single and then retired the next three batters en route to his 39th save. He’s been scoreless over his last six and converted his last seven save chances. 
  • Richard Lovelady (TBR) hit Shohei Ohtani with a pitch and gave up Mookie Betts’ go-ahead two-run home run, resulting in his fifth loss. 
  • Kyle Finnegan (WSH) entered with a three-run lead and a runner in the bottom of the eighth. He logged 1.1 scoreless innings, allowing a hit and striking out two for his 32nd save. Two of his four saves in August have required four out appearances. 

Vulture Save Options for Monday, August 26

  • Chris Martin (BOS): His team will complete a suspended game and play a full one. In a sweep, he could nab an ancillary save.
  • Scott Barlow (CLE): A second doubleheader features the Guardians and the Royals. A sweep for Cleveland could feature Barlow unless Clase wants the ball in both contests.
  • John Schreiber (KCR): If Erceg appears in Game 1, it could be Schreiber in Game 2. 

Vulture Save Stashes for Tuesday, August 27

  • Jeff Hoffman (PHI): If Estévez pitches today, it will be consecutive outings. 
  • Tayler Scott (HOU): If Hader, Abreu, and Neris work tonight, it will be back-to-back outings for the Astros triumvirate.

What to Watch For

Arizona Diamondbacks – The Diamondbacks’ bullpen will face the Mets and Dodgers this scoring period, which will be a true test of its postseason aspirations. Justin Martinez has converted all six save opportunities since August 5 but has allowed a run in four of his last five games. Over his last nine games, he’s posted a 1.45 WHIP with 15 strikeouts against six walks (20.5 K-BB%) and a 3.24 SIERA. Will A.J. Puk be deployed against the top three Dodgers’ hitters, including two left-handed ones? He’s been scoreless in his last 11 outings with 14 strikeouts versus one walk (37.1 K-BB%) with a 0.52 WHIP and a 1.54 SIERA. Stay tuned, but how Martinez gets used in September may be decided this week. 

Baltimore Orioles – After a three-game stretch, allowing a solo home run in each appearance, Seranthony Domínguez rebounded with consecutive scoreless games while securing a save. In his 14 games with the Orioles, he’s 0-2 with five saves and one hold while recording 15 strikeouts against three walks (27.1 K-BB%). He’s only allowed seven hits, but four have been solo home runs. With three games against the Dodgers on the road and three in Coors Field, his home run per fly ball rate will be tested. 

Boston Red Sox Beginning the week with the resumption of a suspended game resulting in a de facto doubleheader applies pressure to an already struggling bullpen. Entering gameplay this week, the Red Sox leverage ladder has a 1.57 WHIP and negative 1.37 Win Probability Added for the month, next to last in the majors. Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin have pitched very well, but can the setup relievers get them leads? 

Chicago Cubs – Fantasy managers prefer clarity but the Cubs used two different relievers in save chances last scoring period, Porter Hodge and Jorge López. Hodge has been scoreless over his last eight games, recording two wins, a save, and four holds. López has not allowed a run in eight of nine games this month while posting a win, two saves, and two holds. Here are their underlying metrics for August: 

  • Hodge: 13:3 K:BB (27.5 K-BB%), 0.93 WHIP, 2.52 SIERA, 11.3 SwStr%, 72.7 percent contact rate allowed, 62.4 Strike%
  • López: 16:1 K:BB (44.1 K-BB%). 0.75 WHIP, 0.87 SIERA, 19 SwStr%, 62.1 percent contact rate allowed, 75,8 Strike%

Cincinnati Reds Closer Alexis Díaz last recorded a save on August 13, though he’s been pitching better in the second half. However, his walk rate depresses his K-BB percentage (14.3 percent since the All-Star break), and his 1.00 WHIP does not reflect two hit batters reaching base. Those seeking positives will point out he’s converted five of six chances in the second half with a 14.8 swinging strike percentage. Expanding his sample to the last statistical year, he’s 27-for-32 in save chances with a 1.47 WHIP and a 7.3 K-BB percentage (56:37 K:BB). How he finishes the season may determine how he’s viewed by fantasy players for 2025. 

Colorado Rockies – With Victor Vodnik landing on the injured list, Tyler Kinley should assume the primary save share in the interim. Since July 28, Kinley’s recorded a win, a save in two chances, and seven holds with 14 strikeouts against three walks (23.9 K-BB%) and a 0.54 WHIP. Vodnik has a 1.94 WHIP with a zero K-BB percentage while allowing an 82.7 percent contact rate in this same timeframe. Perhaps fantasy managers focus too much on saves? 

Detroit Tigers – Segue alert, but Jason Foley has resumed his primary save share status for the Tigers. He’s secured his team’s last two saves (August 15 and 23) while being scoreless in eight of his last nine appearances.

Los Angeles Angels – Amidst a five-game losing streak, manager Ron Washington tried a match-up-based approach on Saturday in Toronto, using Ben Joyce in the eighth against the opposition’s 3-4-5 lineup pocket. Joyce secured his eighth hold, but the team lost when Roansy Contreras served up consecutive home runs at the bottom of the ninth without recording an out. Will this be a trend moving forward, or will the rookie be used in save situations over the remaining five weeks? 

Los Angeles Dodgers – First, there is no closer on this team right now. Although Michael Kopech converted saves on the 16th and 18th, he also appeared in the eighth inning on Saturday, with Evan Phillips receiving the save chance with a one-run lead. Dave Roberts may be using relievers against lineup lanes, so naming a closer in this bullpen seems misleading. Will Kopech continue receiving save chances? Yes. Will Phillips? It appears likely. Those in deep leagues can also try streaming Anthony Banda. He’s taken over as the top left-handed relief option in the hierarchy. He could be used against Joc Pederson later this week, though Phillips projects as the preferred option against Eugenio Suárez. Stay tuned for “As the Dodgers’ leverage events turn.”

Milwaukee Brewers – With a three-run lead entering the top of the ninth on Saturday in Oakland, Trevor Megill was warming for the potential save opportunity and Bryse Wilson if the lead grew. After the Brewers scored two runs in the top of the inning, Wison took over in a non-save outing. However, Devin Williams was not a part of the equation despite last appearing on Wednesday. After tireless searching on “X,” this video appeared with Pat Murphy speaking about a sore left shoulder for Williams. This sounds like a non-issue, but monitor usage patterns for this bullpen closely during this scoring period. 

New York Yankees – As September approaches, help for the bullpen may be arriving soon. Ian Hamilton made his first rehab outing at Double-A with a clean inning while striking out the side on 12 pitches. Lou Trivino has been scoreless over his last four appearances and retired his last nine batters faced, four via strikeout, also at Double-A. Clay Holmes remains the closer, and his underlying data portends better results than he’s experienced. However, when recalled, Hamilton could be a sneaky play, especially if the team keeps him in one-inning appearances. 

Pittsburgh Pirates – Recency bias affects fantasy managers, especially when valuing relievers at the end of the season for next year. David Bednar will be a hot topic this winter. After going through a six-game stretch allowing at least a run in each, he’s been scoreless in three of his last four, converting two saves. It’s a small step forward, but his splits before and after his in-season oblique injury cannot be overlooked. How he performs over the next five weeks may determine how the Pirates and fantasy players view him for 2025. 

San Francisco Giants – Despite recalling Camilo Doval on Saturday, Bob Melvin kept Ryan Walker installed as his closer. It’s tough arguing with his decision. Walker’s been scoreless in nine of ten games in August while posting the second-best K-BB percentage (45.7) among all qualified relievers. His robust 23 strikeouts versus two walks over 11.2 innings with a 0.69 WHIP and 16.3 swinging strike percentage are impressive enough, then toss in his 68.7 strike percentage. It’s far from Doval’s traffic-infused outings throughout the season. However, when the team drifts further from playoff contention, should it discover what it has in Doval? Or feature him for a potential trade this winter? Time will tell, but Walker will be the preferred save share until usage patterns suggest otherwise. 

Tampa Bay RaysTankathon rates the Rays’ remaining schedule as the second hardest in the majors, behind only the Giants. Manuel Rodríguez, Edwin Uceta, and Garrett Cleavinger recorded a save in the last scoring period. This aligns with past closer-by-committee machinations by Kevin Cash and the organization. Although the team traded Jason Adam and potentially lost Pete Fairbanks for the rest of the season, it ranks first in bullpen WHIP (0.95) in the second half while sitting second in K-BB percentage and Win Probability Added. As for clarity, our adjusted hierarchy lists all three relievers; hopefully, their roles become more pronounced over the next two weeks.

Those seeking full game recaps should surf the team pages; they’ve all been updated with Sunday’s results.

Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community. Stay safe and be well.

Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

Baseball-Reference.com

Statcast