Monkey Bytes: July 31

It’s a difficult time of year with many fantasy players transitioning toward football preparations, the trade deadline, and managers providing sometimes misleading information. Doing our due diligence can reap dividends, but patience may be required, especially for those who stashed Ben Joyce for second-half saves.

Tuesday’s slate provided five reliever wins, two via bulk relief outings and two on blown saves, resulting in a win after his respective team rallied. There were more blown saves (six) than saves (four), with two by the Yankees’ bullpen, including an MLB-leading eighth of the season. Last, two games required extra innings, with the Yankees and Padres emerging victorious.

Closer CliffsNotes

  • Alexis Díaz (CIN) recorded his 21st save. He gave up a hit during a scoreless ninth against the Cubs.
  • Rookie Fraser Ellard (CHW) lost his MLB debut. He issued two walks, which resulted in two earned runs, and retired one batter in the top of the eighth in Kansas City.
  • Jake Bird (COL) suffered his second loss. Taking over a tied game in the bottom of the seventh, he served up a go-ahead Jo Adell home run.
  • Sam Long (KCR) notched his first save with a clean bottom of the ninth and recorded two strikeouts while preserving a one-run win over the White Sox.
  • Hunter Strickland (LAA) secured his first save since 2022 with a clean ninth against the Rockies, as we planned.
  • Alex Vesia (LAD) suffered his third loss, allowing a walk, followed by a single, an intentional walk, and a walk-off hit by Donovan Solano in the bottom of the tenth.
  • Declan Cronin (MIA) allowed his only inherited runner to score, taking over for an injured Edward Cabrera in the sixth. He also absorbed his third loss and first blown save, giving up three hits, four earned runs, and two walks during his outing.
  • Michael Tonkin (NYY) worked the 11th and 12th innings, getting tagged with his second blown save but collecting his fourth win, finishing a one-run win over the Phillies.
  • Orion Kerkering (PHI) suffered his second loss, allowing the “place” runner to score on a hit and a go-ahead sacrifice fly in the top of the 12th.
  • Robert Suarez (SDP) retired the side and recorded two strikeouts in the top of the tenth against the Dodgers, then collected his sixth win courtesy of a walk-off in the bottom of the inning.
  • Tyler Alexander (TBR) logged 2.1 bulk innings en route to his fourth win. He gave up a solo home run and struck out three against Miami.

Three Takeaways

  • Re-Joyce or revolt?: While reading articles or tweets providing information about roles, it’s challenging reading between the lines, but even in this note from Sam Blum, it said Ben Joyce would get “many” of the reps for saves if the team traded Luis García. In the first save chance after the team traded its two veteran relievers atop the hierarchy, Ron Washington summoned Hunter Strickland for the ninth against the Rockies’ bottom-of-the-lineup. In this tweet, Washington said he would use a pending free agent (Strickland), Joyce, and Hans Crouse, in future save opportunities. Patience may be required, but one should avoid overreacting to this usage pattern.
  • Dodgers and fluidity: Last night’s loss marked the third time in the last 13 games Los Angeles squandered a five-run lead, which resulted in a loss. Blake Treinen allowed two solo home runs in the ninth, and Alex Vesia gave up the walk-off run in the tenth, though his manager tried removing him for Evan Phillips but could not because of the rules preventing this after a mound visit by the pitching coach. Operating without defined roles and spotty performances makes predicting who will pitch based on match-ups tough and which reliever will get the save. Since July 12, the Dodgers bullpen has a combined 6.75 ERA. Here are their Win Probability Added results in this timeframe:
  • How long will the leash be for Holmes?: It can be a dubious honor leading the majors in blown saves, but at least he’s still getting chances. Clay Holmes suffered his eighth blown save while trying to protect a one-run lead against the Phillies. He allowed a lead-off infield single, induced a groundout, gave up a single, and recorded another fielder’s choice groundout, but with two outs, he uncorked a wild pitch, scoring Johan Rojas from third base. After intentionally walking Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner produced another infield single, loading the bases before an inning-ending groundout by Bryce Harper. There was no loud contact, but traffic on the bases for a reliever lacking swing-and-miss stuff makes situations like this difficult. Momentum has not been kind; he’s only converted two of six save chances in July with a 1.45 WHIP through 9.2 innings. Will he keep the closer role in August, or will this become another match-up-based bullpen?

Vulture Save Option for Wednesday, July 31

  • Gregory Santos (SEA): Andrés Muñoz and Yimi García have pitched in three of the previous four days.

Vulture Save Stash for Thursday, August 1

  • Pierce Johnson (ATL): If Atlanta’s high-leverage triumvirate all pitch again today in Milwaukee, it will mark consecutive outings for Raisel Iglesias, Joe Jiménez, and A.J. Minter, leaving Johnson in line for the save on Thursday. Stay tuned.

American League – Game Recaps from July 30

Kansas City Royals – Summoned with a one-run lead in the ninth, Sam Long retired the side and recorded two strikeouts for his first save. He threw 14 pitches (71.4 Strike%) and one whiff.

  • Hunter Harvey allowed a lead-off Nicky Lopez single, a one-out Luis Robert Jr. single, and an RBI fielder’s choice groundout before an inning-ending strikeout for his MLB-leading 28th hold.

Updated Hierarchy: *James McArthur | *Hunter Harvey | *Lucas Erceg

*= closer-by-committee

Los Angeles Angels – With a three-run lead, Ron Washington summoned Hunter Strickland for his first save since August 1, 2022. Strickland responded with a clean top of the ninth and recorded a strikeout against the Rockies’ 7-8-9 hitters on nine pitches (77.8 Strike%) with two whiffs (22.2 SwStr%). He’s been scoreless over his last five appearances.

  • Ben Joyce notched his sixth hold, retiring the side in the eighth against the 4-5-6 lineup pocket, needing only six pitches (83.3 Strike%) with one whiff (16.7 SwStr%). This extended his scoreless streak to 16 games, spanning 20.1 innings.
  • José Quijada gave up a game-tying Ezequiel Tovar solo home run, resulting in his first blown save, and collected his first win courtesy of his team’s rally in the bottom of the inning.

Updated Hierarchy: *Ben Joyce | *Hunter Strickland | Hans Crouse

*= closer-by-committee

New York Yankees – Working two innings in the 11th and 12th, Michael Tonkin collected his fourth win and second blown save, allowing a hit, an unearned run, and a walk while striking out three.

  • Mark Leiter Jr. navigated around a hit and a walk for a scoreless tenth, stranding the “place” runner in his team debut.
  • Clay Holmes suffered his MLB-leading eighth blown save. He gave up three hits, an earned run on a wild pitch, and a walk (intentional – Kyle Schwarber) in the bottom of the ninth. He’s only converted two of his last six save chances and given up at least a run in four of his previous eight.
  • Luke Weaver notched his 15th hold, retiring the side in the eighth.
  • Tommy Kahnle fired a clean seventh, striking out one for his sixth hold.

Updated Hierarchy: Clay Holmes | Luke Weaver | Mark Leiter Jr.

National League – Game Recaps from July 30

Cincinnati RedsNavigating around a lead-off walk with three straight outs, Alexis Díaz secured his 21st save, finishing a three-run win over the Cubs. He threw 16 pitches (9 strikes – 56.3 Strike%) and induced one whiff. He’s converted all four save chances in July despite allowing at least a run in three of eight outings.

  • Buck Farmer notched his first hold, firing a clean eighth and striking out two.
  • Fernando Cruz let his only inherited runner score on a wild pitch, allowed a walk, and gave up a hit during one-third of the seventh, getting credit for his 22nd hold.
  • Justin Wilson allowed an earned run and a walk while striking out one during a combined inning for his tenth hold.
  • Nick Martinez collected his fourth win as the “bulk follower,” logging four scoreless frames, scattering four hits, and striking out three.

Hierarchy remains: Alexis Díaz | Fernando Cruz | Sam Moll

Los Angeles Dodgers – Working with reduced velocity in recent outings, Alex Vesia suffered his third loss in the bottom of the tenth against the Padres. He issued Kyle Higashioka a lead-off walk and retired Luis Arraez on a sacrifice bunt, putting runners on second and third. After a mound visit, Vesia issued Jurickson Profar an intentional walk but had to remain in the game despite Dave Roberts trying to get Evan Phillips from the bullpen because of the previous mound visit. Donovan Solano delivered a walk-off RBI single instead.

  • Blake Treinen gave up two solo home runs, including a game-tying blast by Jackson Merrill, resulting in his fourth blown save in the ninth.
  • Anthony Banda secured his sixth hold, retiring the side and striking out one in the eighth.

Hierarchy: *Daniel Hudson | *Brent Honeywell | Blake Treinen 

*= closer-by-committee

New York MetsPressed into action with two runners on and two outs in the eighth, Edwin Díaz quelled the rally with an inning-ending strikeout and retired all three in the ninth for his first four-out save in 2024. He threw 20 pitches (70 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (15 SwStr%) while recording two strikeouts and his 13th save. He’s converted six of seven save chances in July.

  • Ryne Stanek had a runner reach on an error and issued a walk during two-thirds scoreless in the eighth, securing his 16th hold.

Updated Hierarchy: Edwin Díaz | Phil Maton | Huascar Brazobán

Philadelphia Phillies – Suffering his second loss, Orion Kerkering allowed a lead-off Jazz Chisolm Jr. single and a go-ahead sacrifice fly, scoring the “place” runner in the top of the 12th. He also recorded a strikeout while throwing 12 pitches (75 Strike%) and getting two whiffs (16.7 SwStr%).

  • Jeff Hoffman logged two innings, spanning the 10th and 11th, giving up two hits, an unearned run, and striking out one.
  • Carlos Estévez retired the side in the ninth against the Yankees’ 3-4-5 lineup pocket on 15 pitches during his team debut.
  • José Ruiz tossed a scoreless eighth, issuing a walk and striking out two.
  • Matt Strahm was tagged with his sixth blown save, issuing two walks and serving up a go-ahead Chisolm Jr. three-run home run.
  • José Alvarado retired his only batter in the sixth for his seventh hold and stranded two runners.

Adjusted Hierarchy: Carlos Estévez | Jeff Hoffman | José Alvarado

San Diego Padres Preserving a tied game with a clean top of the tenth, Robert Suarez collected his sixth win when his teammates produced a walk-off rally in the bottom of the inning. He threw 10 pitches (80 Strike%) and generated four whiffs against the Dodgers’ 4-5-6 lineup pocket.

  • Jeremiah Estrada tossed a scoreless ninth, allowing a hit and striking out two.
  • Logan Gillaspie retired the side in the eighth.
  • Adrian Morejon navigated around a hit and two walks while striking out one in a scoreless seventh.

Adjusted Hierarchy: Robert Suarez | Tanner Scott | Jason Adam

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

Baseball-Reference.com

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