Updated: July 26, 2024
With days until the trade deadline (July 30), here are the latest playoff projections for the American League courtesy of Baseball-Reference:
Glossary:
BUY+: This reliever has a strong chance (50 percent or better) of becoming a closer after the trade deadline.
BUY: This reliever has a slight chance (at least 20 percent) of becoming a closer after the trade deadline.
SELL: This reliever has a slight chance (at least 20 percent) of losing the closer role by the trade deadline.
SELL+: This reliever has a strong chance (50 percent or higher) of losing the closer role by the trade deadline.
TL;DR – National League Relievers
BUY+: Andrew Nardi (MIA); Devin Williams (MIL); Victor Vodnik (COL)
BUY: Daniel Hudson (LAD); Robert Garcia (WSH); Fernando Cruz (CIN); Nick Mears (COL); Ryan Walker (SFG); Porter Hodge (CHC); Huascar Brazobán (MIA); Julian Merryweather (CHC)
SELL: José Alvarado (PHI); Kyle Finnegan (WSH); Héctor Neris (CHC); Alexis Díaz (CIN); Paul Sewald (ARI); Jalen Beeks (COL); Camilo Doval (SFG); Evan Phillips (LAD)
SELL+: Tanner Scott (MIA); Trevor Megill (MIL)
In case you missed it, our First Half in Review for Relievers covers leaders for saves, holds, SOLDS, and underlying metrics for the first half and the last 365 days. Our American League version was also updated on Tuesday, July 23.
National League East
Atlanta Braves—Spending the offseason building depth through the leverage ladder has paid off, and there is no clear need for this bullpen before the trade deadline. However, an upgrade will not be passed over, though it’s likely a promotion from within, not via trade.
BUY: None; Sell: None
Miami Marlins – Open for business, the Marlins will be selling relievers. The biggest question here is, how many will be traded? Pending free agent Tanner Scott will bring the biggest return, but will they also move Declan Cronin, Calvin Faucher, and others? How many relievers get moved may depend on how the teams on the fence handle their relievers in what has been a slow-moving market.
*Already traded A.J. Puk to Arizona.
BUY+: Andrew Nardi; BUY: Huascar Brazobán; SELL+: Tanner Scott
New York Mets – After finishing the first half with a flurry, the team has turned its season around. It also may have found two relievers for the stretch run out of necessity in Dedniel Núñez and José Buttó. Getting one more solid reliever, especially an upgrade over Jake Diekman, would help this team’s postseason chances. Fantasy managers will also be curious how Edwin Díaz finishes the season, which will determine his price point in drafts next season.
BUY: None; SELL: None
Philadelphia Phillies – Keeping the starting pitchers rested and the bullpen healthy for the postseason will be at the forefront of this team’s thoughts for the second half. Since Tyler Phillips and Spencer Turnbull could make multiple-inning outings over the last two-plus months, getting one more leverage option for the late innings makes sense. How big depends on Dave Dombrowski. Even if they trade for a veteran with “closer” experience, the team’s “floating closer” strategy may remain in place. Per Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Phillies have been linked to Carlos Estévez, Tanner Scott, and Kyle Finnegan in his latest post.
*Traded Seranthony Domínguez to Baltimore for Austin Hays, perhaps opening a bullpen spot for a future move.
Stay tuned.
BUY: None; SELL: José Alvarado
Washington Nationals – It’s tough threading the needle of maximizing return on players under team control through next year while fielding a team that can compete in 2025. This faces the Nationals’ front office. Should the team move Kyle Finnegan, especially if Texas does not become a seller? If he is traded, and Jose A. Ferrer can return to past form, Robert Garcia could be a sneaky play for saves in August.
BUY: Robert Garcia; SELL: Kyle Finnegan
National League Central
Chicago Cubs – Part of the decision process on how the team handles the trade deadline will depend on the bevy of relievers on the mend. Julian Merryweather has been activated but has not appeared as of this writing. He could be back by next weekend. Adbert Alzolay hopes he can return, plus Caleb Kilian could log important relief outings over the last two months. If they sell, Héctor Neris will be a free agent at the end of the season, making him expendable. He does have a contract stipulation worth noting:
BUY: Porter Hodge, Julian Merryweather; SELL: Héctor Neris
Cincinnati Reds – Getting a solid second half out of Alexis Díaz may be the best-case scenario for this fragile leverage ladder. If his struggles continue, especially with traffic on the bases, the team may be forced to move him out of save situations. Monitor his results closely. He was featured in Three Takeaways on July 23. As for the Reds, they remain on the fence ahead of the trade deadline, though Baltimore has been linked to trade interest for Nick Martinez.
BUY: Fernando Cruz; SELL: Alexis Díaz
Milwaukee Brewers – It’s been a terrific run, but those who have Trevor Megill on their roster should be planning on potential replacements ahead of the trade deadline. He may record ancillary saves once Devin Williams returns, but he will slot into the eighth inning, making this good bullpen even better.
BUY+: Devin Williams; SELL+: Trevor Megill
Pittsburgh Pirates – It appears the team may add ahead of the deadline. Still, its focus will be on hitters and a potential starting pitcher, not necessarily the bullpen, which continues to get healthier. A returning Ryan Borucki and Hunter Stratton may be this team’s biggest leverage ladder additions.
BUY: None; SELL: None
St. Louis Cardinals – Closer Ryan Helsley combined to share in 70 percent of his team’s 50 victories in the first half with 32 saves and three wins. His 17 clean saves (three batters faced) leads all MLB relievers, and he became the eighth pitcher with 32 saves before the All-Star break, first since Edwin Díaz (36 in 2018). As great as this sounds, the team needs some depth ahead of the trade deadline. Andrew Kittredge has already logged 47 appearances, his most since 57 games in 2021. JoJo Romero ended the first half tied for the major league lead in holds (26). However, he’s produced a 0.00 ERA on one-day rest this year (13.1 innings) versus a 6.30 ERA on zero days rest (10 innings).
BUY: None; SELL: None
National League West
Arizona Diamondbacks – Mike Hazen has reported the team will be buying ahead of the trade deadline, so it appears Paul Sewald will remain the closer through the end of the season. Making a move, the Diamondbacks have traded for A.J. Puk, and he immediately slots into our adjusted bullpen hierarchy. He will be under team control through the end of 2026 and could earn a save share if Sewald’s struggles persist into August. Stay tuned.
BUY: A.J. Puk; SELL: Paul Sewald
Colorado Rockies—If they can move Jalen Beeks, the team will do so. Focusing on relievers capable of operating in Coors with velocity and an arsenal suited for the ballpark would help moving forward. Victor Vodnik emerged with three saves in July and may become the de facto closer after the trade deadline. Keep tabs on Nick Mears; his arsenal suits Coors well.
BUY+: Victor Vodnik; Buy: Nick Mears; SELL: Jalen Beeks
Los Angeles Dodgers – Although Dave Roberts supports Evan Phillips, his recent outings do not give fantasy managers confidence. Daniel Hudson has recorded a save in his last four appearances, taking over the top spot in our adjusted hierarchy. How the Dodgers handle the trade deadline may provide the second-half blueprint for the leverage roles, but for now, they seem fluid.
BUY: Daniel Hudson; SELL: Evan Phillips
San Diego Padres – Anchoring his bullpen’s hierarchy, Robert Suarez has recorded five saves requiring four or more outs this season. His team has won 37 of 39 games he’s appeared in, and he’s only nine innings for tying his career MLB high in a season. Jeremiah Estrada has already thrown 45.1 innings across Triple-A and the majors this season; his career-high is only 54 innings set in 2022. If the Padres plan on contending for a spot in the postseason, they will need a reliever or two before the deadline lapses.
BUY: None; SELL: None
San Francisco Giants – On the positive side, the team has one of the easiest remaining strengths of schedules while getting starting pitchers back. This could fuel a run. However, Camilo Doval‘s inflated WHIP (1.605) places him on watch at the onset of the second half. If Doval’s struggles continue into August, Ryan Walker may earn some save chances in the second half.
BUY: Ryan Walker; SELL: Camilo Doval
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