Updated: July 26, 2024
With days remaining until the trade deadline (July 30), here are the latest playoff projections for the American League courtesy of Baseball-Reference:
Glossary:
BUY+: This reliever has a strong chance (50 percent or better) of becoming a closer after the trade deadline.
BUY: This reliever has a slight chance (at least 20 percent) of becoming a closer after the trade deadline.
SELL: This reliever has a slight chance (at least 20 percent) of losing the closer role by the trade deadline.
SELL+: This reliever has a strong chance (50 percent or higher) of losing the closer role by the trade deadline.
TL;DR – American League Relievers
BUY+: Ben Joyce (LAA)
BUY: Jason Adam (TBR): Hunter Harvey (KCR); Tyler Ferguson (OAK)
SELL: Pete Fairbanks (TBR); Clay Holmes (NYY); Chad Green (TOR); James McArthur (KCR); Mason Miller (OAK); Kenley Jansen (BOS)
SELL+: Michael Kopech (CHW); Carlos Estévez (LAA)
In case you missed it, our First Half in Review for Relievers covers leaders for saves, holds, SOLDS, and underlying metrics for the first half and the last 365 days.
American League East
Baltimore Orioles – With eyes on a repeat of a postseason berth, the Orioles will be buyers ahead of the trade deadline. Though its main focus will be on starting pitching, getting a veteran reliever capable of setting up in high-leverage situations will also be on the team’s radar. Reports have speculated that the team will get Tanner Scott back from Miami, and a left-handed reliever makes sense, given the timeline for Danny Coulombe‘s injury. How Craig Kimbrel pitches early in the second half will determine his team’s course of action at closer.
BUY: None; SELL: None
Boston Red Sox – Losing four straight beginning the second half places general manager Craig Breslow into a tough position. He planned on trading closer Kenley Jansen, per reports, early in the season, but the players and manager suggest the team should be adding, not selling, ahead of the deadline. This weekend and next week may play a pivotal part in how he threads the needle in handling the roster for the rest of the season. Liam Hendriks may be available as soon at some point in August, which could bolster the leverage ladder if the team adds before the deadline.
BUY: TBD; SELL: Kenley Jansen
New York Yankees – This bullpen’s deficiencies are not its closer’s fault, but there is a chance Clay Holmes should be the primary set-up reliever, not the closer. Much of this will depend on how the Yankees handle the trade deadline. New York should add one if not two, relievers for the stretch run, but will it shop at the top of the closer food chain? Time will tell.
BUY: None; SELL: Clay Holmes
Tampa Bay Rays – According to Tankathon, the Rays have the second most difficult schedule from July 23-on, which does not help its current 1.4 percent playoff odds by Baseball-Reference. This may prompt the team to buy and sell ahead of the trade deadline, which puts closer Pete Fairbanks on the block. He’s converted 18 of 20 save chances this season with diminished underlying metrics. However, the Rays may keep him based on his below market value contract and move Jason Adams instead. Stay tuned.
BUY: Jason Adam; SELL: Pete Fairbanks
Toronto Blue Jays – Projected as a seller, the Blue Jays will try moving pending free agents Yimi García and Trevor Richards. How they handle Chad Green will determine how save chances are recorded in the last two months of the season, but if he’s traded too, this bullpen may be worth avoiding from a fantasy perspective. Reports suggest Baltimore and the Yankees are interested in Green.
BUY: None; SELL: Chad Green (if traded)
American League Central
Chicago White Sox – It may be ironic if the team traded John Brebbia but did not move Michael Kopech. Both may be moved, but time will tell how Chris Getz handles the deadline. If he trades both veteran relievers, the hierarchy will be very light on experience for the last two months. Unpopular opinion, if Kopech stays: he will finish the year strong despite his team’s limited upside for wins in the second half.
BUY: None; SELL+: Michael Kopech
Cleveland Guardians – Representing one of the few contenders not requiring bullpen help, an extra veteran with playoff experience would prove beneficial based on the team’s second half strength of schedule. Focused on winning the division, do not plan on many changes in the leverage ladder, one of the most stable in the majors.
BUY: None; SELL: None
Detroit Tigers – Although Jason Foley has recorded 15 of his team’s 22 saves, he’s only secured four since the start of June. Through 17 games in July, he has notched two saves, while Andrew Chafin, Tyler Holton, and Shelby Miller have one each. This bullpen has been fluid over the last 14 days. Projected as sellers, Chafin and Miller will be traded, if possible, since they are pending free agents. How the team handles save chances during the second half will be monitored closely.
BUY: None; SELL: Jason Foley
Kansas City Royals – In an early move to strengthen their leverage ladder, they traded for Hunter Harvey in early July. General Manager J.J. Picollo discussed getting him in this video and suggested that he will work in high-leverage innings and save situations will evolve. For now, James McArthur remains the closer, but his runway in the role gets shorter with Harvey in the mix.
BUY: Hunter Harvey; SELL: James McArthur
Minnesota Twins – The biggest thing for fantasy managers in this leverage ladder is how Jhoan Durán finishes the season and his velocities. This team has other needs than the bullpen, so do not anticipate a big move here unless an injury happens in the next ten days. Getting Brock Stewart and Justin Topa back may represent the second-half’s two biggest additions for this bullpen.
BUY: None; SELL: None
American League West
Houston Astros – Although he’s had some issues with home runs, Josh Hader will remain the closer. After the slow start, the team enters the last week before the deadline tied with Seattle for first place. Only a collapse would prompt the team to move Ryan Pressly, who will opt out at the end of the season if he wants to close games next year. Projected as buyers, the team will target one or two veterans for the bullpen, capable of protecting leads in the sixth and seventh innings.
BUY: None; SELL: None
Los Angeles Angels – There is no denying the improvement displayed by Ben Joyce since introducing his “splinker” on June 14, but he needs the team to trade Luis García, not just Carlos Estévez, for a full run as the closer. This should happen, but one cannot ignore Ron Washington’s patience in not moving up Logan O’Hoppe or Zach Neto in the lineup to avoid putting pressure on the young hitters. The good news is that the Angels should be moving any commodity possible, and with the easiest remaining strength of schedule, Joyce hopefully accrues six to eight saves down the stretch.
BUY+: Ben Joyce; SELL+: Carlos Estévez
Oakland A’s – One of the biggest trade deadline questions remains: how will they handle Mason Miller? In the latest post about the topic by Joel Sherman of the New York Post. This decision looms, especially after Miler’s dominant outing in the All-Star game. The team may hold onto him and move Lucas Erceg instead, but monitor how this evolves closely. If the team does move Erceg, it paves the way for Tyler Ferguson to gain a larger leverage role for the rest of the season.
BUY: Tyler Ferguson; SELL: None
Seattle Mariners – This leverage ladder remains a delicate ecosystem. All three relievers have missed time because of injuries, with Andrés Muñoz and Ryne Stanek pitching through lingering back issues and Gregory Santos missing most of the first half with a lat injury. With one of the best rotations in baseball, the team must add one, if not two, relievers for depth in leverage situations.
BUY: None; SELL: None
Texas Rangers – With a week until the trade deadline, they sit only four games back in the division, making their plans more difficult. Preparing to buy and sell, a mix of both will likely happen. If they decide to sell, they can take over the reliever market with Kirby Yates and José Leclerc being pending free agents, while David Robertson (mutual option) could also be moved. This would create a huge chasm in the leverage ladder, but if he’s healthy, Josh Sborz could be the beneficiary of save chances over the last two months with Jonathan Hernández getting a larger leverage role as well.
**Updated on July 25: Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports the team will buy ahead of the deadline, which would remove Yates, Robertson, and Leclerc from trade discussions.
BUY: None; SELL: None
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