Monkey Bytes: July 15

Sunday’s full game slate provided high-leverage events of interest and the end of the first half. Ten relievers recorded a win, one via a “bulk” outing behind an opener. Eight saves were recorded, with only one being a reliever’s first of the season (Roansy Contreras). There were walk-offs by the Giants and the Tigers, plus a wild finish between the Yankees and the Orioles.

Three Takeaways

  • Doval’s rising WHIP: It begins with a tweak of his arsenal; Camilo Doval has shelved his sinker and leaned into his slider. However, he suffered his fourth blown save on Sunday, allowing two hits after a lead-off walk resulting in two earned runs. At the end of the first half, he owns a bloated 1.62 WHIP through 39 games spanning 37 innings. Small sample sizes can skew results. Taking his results from the last 365 days (statistical year), he’s recorded 26 saves with a 1.48 WHIP over his last 62.2 innings. He does not reside on the “hot seat” entering the second half, but fantasy managers must account for the ratio risk he presents with hitters sitting on his cutter:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/L7nO4/6/

  • Dodgers treading water: It’s been a rough start to July for Los Angeles. With a makeshift rotation, the bullpen has cracked under heavy usage patterns. In 12 games this month, Dodger starters have only logged 49.2 innings (roughly 19 batters faced per start) with zero wins, five losses, and a 1.65 WHIP. Although the relievers have recorded four wins, they have worked more innings (54.2) through the team’s first 12 games in July and enter the break with a combined 1.61 WHIP this month. When considering why the team remained with Yohan Ramírez on Sunday, here are the recent workloads by the bullpen:
  • Will Tampa Bay trade Fairbanks? It’s strange to speculate about the Rays potentially being sellers at the trade deadline, but they remain one of the most pragmatic franchises, working under the age-old adage by Kenny Rogers, “Know when to hold them and when to fold them.” Pete Fairbanks has converted 33 of 38 save chances in the last statistical year with a 1.15 WHIP, 22 K-BB percentage, and an 11.6 percent swinging strike rate. These are very good results, but he’s been trending in the wrong direction this season in terms of contact allowed and strikeouts produced, which may make him more suited for a set-up role on a different team than the closer in Tampa Bay:

Next, our condensed game recaps cover Sunday’s high-leverage events. During the All-Star break, we will post a First-Half in Review and trade deadline updates, with eyes on second half saves.

Closer CliffsNotes

American League

Baltimore Orioles – Despite allowing a go-ahead three-run home run, resulting in his fifth blown save, Craig Kimbrel benefited from his team’s walk-off rally and collected his sixth win. After not appearing since July 7, the closer displayed signs of rust, issuing consecutive walks at the onset of the ninth with a one-run lead before serving up Ben Rice’s three-run shot. Kimbrel induced a Juan Soto groundout, struck out Aaron Judge, and retired Alex Verdugo on a flyout. He finished with a hit, three earned runs, and a walk while striking out one, throwing 28 pitches (13 strikes – 46.4 Strike%) with three whiffs.

  • Yennier Cano secured his 24th hold, tossing 1.1 scoreless frames, giving up a hit and a walk.
  • Cionel Pérez worked a scoreless combined inning, yielding a hit and striking out two for his 13th hold. 

Hierarchy remains: Craig Kimbrel | Yennier Cano | Cionel Pérez

Boston Red SoxHanging on for his 19th save, Kenley Jansen logged two innings, allowing two hits, an earned run, and a walk while striking out three in a one-run win over the Royals. After tossing a clean eighth, he gave up a one-out Hunter Renfroe single in the ninth, followed by a walk and Freddy Fermin’s RBI single with a runner thrown out at third, then induced a game-ending groundout. Jansen threw 27 pitches (22 strikes – 81.5 Strike%) and induced two whiffs during his second two-inning save this season.

  • Brennan Bernardino stranded a runner and recorded two outs in the eighth, one via strikeout for his seventh hold.

Updated Hierarchy: Kenley Jansen | Zack Kelly | Brennan Bernardino

Detroit Tigers – Benefiting from a walk-off rally, Alex Faedo collected his fourth win. He took over in the ninth and stranded two runners despite issuing a walk with an inning-ending strikeout of Chris Taylor.

  • Jason Foley worked a combined scoreless inning, giving up two walks and striking out one with his team down by one.
  • Andrew Chafin tossed a scoreless combined inning, yielding a hit and striking out two.
  • Kenta Maeda logged 3.2 scoreless innings as the “bulk follower,” allowing a hit and striking out five.
  • Tyler Holton logged two scoreless frames. He gave up a hit and struck out two.

Hierarchy remains: *Jason Foley | *Tyler Holton | *Shelby Miller

*= closer-by-committee

Los Angeles Angels – Protecting a one-run lead, Roansy Contreras recorded his first save this season and the second of his career with a clean ninth, striking out one. He threw 16 pitches (62.5 Strike%) without a whiff.

  • Hans Crouse collected his third win, navigating around a hit and a walk while striking out two in a scoreless eighth inning ahead of his team’s rally in the bottom of the inning.
  • Matt Moore allowed a hit, an earned run, and a walk while striking out three in the seventh.

Hierarchy remains: Carlos Estévez | Luis García | Ben Joyce

Minnesota Twins – Entering a tied game in the bottom of the ninth, Jhoan Durán suffered his fourth loss on Mike Yastrzemski’s lead-off triple and a throwing error awarding him home, resulting in an unearned run on his ledger.

  • Griffin Jax fired a clean eighth and recorded a strikeout.
  • Josh Staumont retired his only batter via strikeout in the seventh, stranding a runner.
  • Caleb Thielbar gave up a hit and struck out one in two-thirds scoreless in the seventh.
  • Jorge Alcala stranded two runners while retiring his only batter in the sixth.

Hierarchy remains: Jhoan Durán | Griffin Jax | Jorge Alcala

New York Yankees – Deserving a better outcome, Clay Holmes suffered his fourth loss and sixth blown save during a walk-off loss in Baltimore. He should not issue two walks, but with two outs and the bases loaded, Anthony Volpe committed an error, letting a run score without recording an out. Then, Cedric Mullins hit an opposite-field fly ball, which Alex Verdugo misjudged, slipped and fell, letting the game-winning runs score. All three runs were unearned for Holmes, but his two hits and two walks will not help fantasy managers from a WHIP perspective. He enters the All-Star break, allowing at least a run in six of his last 10 appearances and multiple runs in five.

  • Jake Cousins stranded a runner and retired both batters, one via strikeout in the eighth. He’s been scoreless in his last four games, recording nine strikeouts during 4.2 innings.
  • Luke Weaver allowed a hit and struck out one in a scoreless combined inning.

Updated Hierarchy: Clay Holmes | Luke Weaver | Jake Cousins

Tampa Bay Rays – Completing a combined shutout, Pete Fairbanks navigated around consecutive hits leading off the ninth with a José Ramírez pop-out, a Josh Naylor lineout, and a game-ending David Fry flyout. He threw 19 pitches (14 strikes – 73.7 Strike%) without a whiff. He ended the first half by converting his last seven save chances but allowed a run in two of his last four outings.

  • Jason Adam fired a clean eighth and recorded two strikeouts on 12 pitches (75 Strike%) with four whiffs (33.3 SwStr%) for his 18th hold.
  • Colin Poche notched his 12th hold, retiring the side in the seventh.

Hierarchy remains: Pete Fairbanks | Jason Adam | Colin Poche

Texas Rangers – Although he gave up an earned run in the ninth, Kirby Yates recorded his 16th save during a two-run win in Houston. He issued a lead-off walk, a leverage no-no, followed by a Jeremy Peña single. With two on and no outs, he induced consecutive fielder’s choice groundouts, scoring the run before a game-ending groundout. Yates threw 12 pitches (66.7 Strike%) and induced one whiff. This snapped his eight-game scoreless streak, but he’s converted 16 of 18 save chances in the first half with 46 strikeouts against six walks.

  • Jacob Latz stranded two runners and retired both hitters in the eighth, one via strikeout for his eighth hold.
  • José Leclerc logged 1.1 scoreless frames, allowing a hit and striking out one.
  • Josh Sborz collected his second win, tossing two clean innings and striking out one.

Hierarchy remains: Kirby Yates | David Robertson | José Leclerc

Toronto Blue Jays –  Securing his sixth save, Chad Green logged 1.1 scoreless frames and stranded a runner in the bottom of the eighth while retiring Ketel Marte via strikeout. In the ninth, Green navigated around a two-out single by Christian Walker with a game-ending Corbin Carroll flyout. He threw 15 pitches (60 Strike%) without a whiff. He’s converted all four save chances in July but has allowed at least a run in three of his seven appearances.

  • Brendon Little recorded his fourth hold, tossing a scoreless combined inning, yielding a hit, and striking out one.
  • Ryan Burr was awarded his first hold, issuing a walk and striking out one in two-thirds scoreless.
  • Trevor Richards collected his second win, retiring the side in the sixth, ahead of his team’s rally in the seventh.
  • Following the game, the Blue Jays announced they are demoting Brandon Eisert so they can activate Yimi García on Friday. 

Updated Hierarchy: Chad Green | Yimi García | Trevor Richards

National League

Arizona Diamondbacks – During a tied game in the top of the seventh, Kevin Ginkel suffered his second loss. He allowed three hits, including Vlad Guerrero Jr.’s go-ahead solo home run, and recorded two strikeouts.

  • Justin Martinez retired the side in the eighth and struck out one.
  • Paul Sewald fired a clean ninth, striking out one on 15 pitches (66.7 Strike%) with two whiffs (13.3 SwStr%). He ended the first half on a three-game scoreless streak.

Updated Hierarchy: Paul Sewald | Kevin Ginkel | Justin Martinez

Atlanta Braves – Shutting the door on his 22nd save, Raisel Iglesias fired a clean ninth and recorded a strikeout, finishing a three-run win over the Padres. He threw 18 pitches (55.6 Strike%) and induced two whiffs. He carries an eight-game scoreless streak into the second half, and he has converted his last 14 save chances.

  • Joe Jiménez notched his 18th hold, logging 1.1 scoreless frames and stranded two runners in the seventh.
  • A.J. Minter struggled, allowing three hits, including Luis Campusano’s two-run home run and a walk over two-thirds of the seventh.

Hierarchy remains: Raisel Iglesias | Joe Jiménez | A.J. Minter

Cincinnati RedsEntering a tied game in the top of the eighth, Fernando Cruz suffered his seventh loss, allowing two hits and an earned run during his two-thirds inning. He gave up Jake Burger’s two-out double and a go-ahead RBI single by Xavier Edwards before being replaced.

  • Justin Wilson stranded a runner while inducing an inning-ending flyout by Jesús Sánchez.
  • Alexis Diaz tossed a scoreless ninth, navigating around two hits and striking out one.

Hierarchy remains: Alexis Díaz | Fernando Cruz | Sam Moll

Colorado Rockies – Summoned with one out and two runners on, Victor Vodnik took over in the bottom of the eighth and issued a walk to Francisco Lindor, induced a fielder’s choice groundout, scoring a run and an inning-ending lineout by Francisco Alvarez. In the ninth, he allowed consecutive one-out singles before recording back-to-back strikeouts, converting his second save. He worked 1.2 scoreless innings, allowing two hits and a walk while striking out two on 38 pitches (22 strikes – 57.9 Strike%) with five whiffs (13.2 SwStr%).

  • Jalen Beeks gave up two hits, two earned runs, and a walk while striking out one in one-third of the eighth.

Hierarchy remains: Jalen Beeks | Victor Vodnik | Tyler Kinley

Los Angeles Dodgers – Working in a third straight game, Yohan Ramírez suffered his fifth loss and second blown save. He tossed a scoreless eighth but did not record an out in the ninth. It started with Zach McKinstry’s lead-off triple, followed by Justyn-Henry Malloy’s game-tying RBI single, then consecutive bunts with an error, scored the game-winning run on an errant throw to third base. Ramírez finished with three hits, two runs (one earned), and a strikeout in his inning of work.

  • Anthony Banda notched his third hold, retiring both batters in the eighth, one via strikeout.
  • Michael Peterson stranded a runner while issuing a walk and striking out one in two-thirds innings.

Hierarchy remains: Evan Phillips | Daniel Hudson | Alex Vesia

Miami Marlins – Taking over in the bottom of the eighth with a runner on, Tanner Scott induced an inning-ending pop-out. In the ninth, he navigated around a lead-off walk and a two-out intentional walk of Santiago Espinal with a game-ending strikeout for his 14th save. He threw 20 pitches (60 Strike%) and produced four whiffs (20 SwStr%) while preserving a one-run win. He ends the first half with scoreless outings in 25 of his last 26, converting 10 of 11 save chances with 33 strikeouts against 12 walks.

  • A.J. Puk collected his third win, tossing a scoreless combined inning. He allowed a walk and recorded a strikeout in his outing while stranding two runners in the seventh. He’s recorded a 10-game scoreless streak with 15 strikeouts against two walks in his last 11 innings.

Hierarchy remains: Tanner Scott | A.J. Puk | Andrew Nardi

San Francisco Giants – With the go-ahead run at second base, Ryan Walker was brought in against the Twins and retired both batters, keeping the game tied. He collected his sixth win courtesy of a walk-off rally in the bottom of the inning.

  • Camilo Doval created the situation. He incurred his fourth blown save, allowing a lead-off walk, a leverage mortal sin, followed by a double, putting runners on second and third. After inducing a strikeout, he allowed Manuel Margot’s two-RBI double, removing him from the contest. Doval threw 18 pitches (11 strikes – 61.1 Strike%) and produced two whiffs. This snapped his modest five-game scoreless streak, and he ended the first half with 17 saves in 21 opportunities.
  • Tyler Rogers retired the side in the eighth, securing his 18th hold.

Hierarchy remains: Camilo Doval | Tyler Rogers | Ryan Walker

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

Baseball-Reference.com

Statcast