Monkey Bytes: July 3

Tuesday provided plenty of high-leverage events of interest, including walk-offs by the Dodgers and the Guardians, plus another extra-inning contest between the Mets and Nationals. Relievers recorded five wins and eight saves on this slate, including one by a newly promoted pitcher for the Mets, who may alter the team’s plans ahead of the trade deadline.

Three Takeaways

  • Could José Buttó alter the Mets’ deadline plans? Out of necessity, New York promoted José Buttó, who delivered two scoreless innings during an eventual win over the Nationals. Although the team prefers keeping him stretched out if they need a starting pitcher, his presence in the bullpen would allow the team to use Dedniel Núñez as a more traditional one-inning reliever, strengthening a glaring weakness in the leverage ladder.
  • Miller’s metamorphosis: It’s not that Mason Miller allowed two earned runs in a non-save appearance; it’s the rise in contact allowed as the season has progressed. There was no way he could continue his dominant start to the season. Still, fantasy managers must adjust their expectations for him moving forward, illustrated by his rolling 10-game chart from Fangraphs:
  • Rockies leverage woes continue: It’s been 18 games since Colorado recorded a save. Tyler Kinley closed out a win against the Twins on June 11. In last night’s game, manager Bud Black used Jalen Beeks in a tied game at the top of the eighth against Milwaukee’s 5-6-7 lineup pocket. He turned in a scoreless outing and was in line for the win until a blown save by Nick Mears in the top of the ninth. He was used out of necessity based on past usage patterns, but it’s tough trusting any reliever not named Beeks in this leverage ladder in any format:

Time will tell who emerges in the Rockies’ bullpen, especially with Beeks, a pending free agent, on the trade block. As for last night, our condensed game recaps cover the high-leverage moments of interest.

Closer CliffsNotes

American League

Baltimore Orioles – Completing the combined shutout and recording his 20th save, Craig Kimbrel worked around a lead-off hit-by-pitch (Luke Raley), a one-out hit batter (Jorge Polanco), with a groundout, followed by a game-ending strikeout of Julio Rodríguez. He threw 17 pitches (10 strikes – 58.8 Strike%) without a whiff while striking out two in his outing. The good news is that he’s riding a four-game scoreless streak with a save in each outing, and the two-hit batters do not affect his WHIP.

  • Cionel Pérez retired the side in the eighth for his 11th hold.
  • Yennier Cano stranded a runner and retired both batters, one via strikeout, while securing his 21st hold in the seventh.

Hierarchy remains: Craig Kimbrel | Yennier Cano | Cionel Pérez

Chicago White SoxIt was a tough-luck loss for Michael Kopech. He took over a tied contest in the bottom of the ninth and allowed a lead-off single. After a fielder’s choice groundout moved the runner to second, Kopech caught a spike, throwing a wild pitch, putting him on third. With one out, he allowed a walk-off sacrifice fly.

  • John Brebbia fired a clean eighth, striking out two against Cleveland’s 3-4-5 lineup pocket.
  • Tanner Banks retired the side in the seventh and recorded one strikeout.

Hierarchy remains: Michael Kopech | John Brebbia | Tanner Banks

Cleveland GuardiansWith the score tied, Emmanuel Clase retired the side in the top of the ninth while facing the White Sox 7-8-9 hitters. He collected his fourth win courtesy of a walk-off in the bottom of the inning. He threw 10 pitches (60 Strike%) and induced one whiff. This extended his scoreless streak to eight games, during which he’s recorded five strikeouts against one walk and converted five saves.

  • Scott Barlow tossed a scoreless eighth, giving up a hit and striking out three.
  • Hunter Gaddis suffered his fourth blown save. He took over in the seventh with two runners on and let both score on a single by Luis Robert Jr. before the next two batters, one via strikeout.
  • Cade Smith gets credit for his 14th hold despite allowing three hits and three earned runs during his one-third of the seventh. 

Updated Hierarchy: Emmanuel Clase | Hunter Gaddis | Scott Barlow

Minnesota Twins – Nailing down his 13th save, Jhoan Durán retired the side and recorded one strikeout in the top of the ninth against the Tigers’ 5-6-7 lineup pocket. He threw 13 pitches (8 strikes – 61.5 Strike%) and induced two whiffs. He’s been scoreless in 10 of his last 11 outings with nine strikeouts against two walks across 11 innings.

  • Griffin Jax gave up a hit and struck out one during a scoreless eighth for his 13th hold.
  • Jorge Alcala collected his second win, retiring all four batters faced and striking out one.

Hierarchy remains: Jhoan Durán | Griffin Jax | Jorge Alcala

Oakland A’s – Entering with a four-run lead, Mason Miller issued a lead-off walk, a leverage no-no. He bounced back with two quick outs but allowed an RBI double by Nolan Schanuel, followed by Luis Rengifo’s RBI single, before inducing a game-ending strikeout. He threw 24 pitches (66.7 Strike%) and did not produce a whiff while giving up two hits, two earned runs, and a walk.

  • Lucas Erceg tossed a scoreless eighth, yielding a hit and striking out one.
  • Scott Alexander let both inherited runners score on a Schanuel single before getting an inning-ending double play in the seventh.

Updated Hierarchy: Mason Miller | Lucas Erceg | Scott Alexander

Tampa Bay Rays – During a non-save appearance, Pete Fairbanks finished a four-run win over the Royals with a clean bottom of the ninth. He threw 14 pitches (57.1 Strike%) without a whiff. He owns a modest four-game scoreless streak and converted his last three save chances.

  • Jason Adam fired a clean eighth and recorded a strikeout for his 14th hold.
  • Colin Poche allowed a hit while tossing a scoreless seventh and secured his eighth hold.
  • Kevin Kelly gave up a solo home run (Bobby Witt Jr.) and struck out one in the sixth, getting credit for his ninth hold.

Hierarchy remains: Pete Fairbanks | Jason Adam | Colin Poche

Toronto Blue Jays – Navigating around a lead-off double, Chad Green bore down and retired the next three Astros hitters on two strikeouts, followed by Jose Altuve’s game-ending flyout. This marked his third save of the season and first since April 9. He threw 16 pitches (75 Strike%) and generated four whiffs (25 SwStr%). He also extended his scoreless streak to eight games.

  • Trevor Richards garnered his sixth hold, giving up a hit and an unearned run in the eighth.
  • Nate Pearson logged two scoreless frames, yielding a hit and striking out three.

Updated Hierarchy: Chad Green | Trevor Richards | Nate Pearson

National League

Arizona Diamondbacks – With a one-run lead in the bottom of the ninth, Paul Sewald suffered his first loss and blown save during a walk-off rally in Los Angeles. It started rather innocently with consecutive strikeouts of Gavin Lux and Shohei Ohtani. However, Will Smith produced a two-out double, Freddie Freeman hit an RBI double, and the game-winning RBI single by Teoscar Hernández completed the rally. Sewald threw 17 pitches (14 strikes – 82.4 Strike%) without a whiff while giving up three hits and two earned runs, snapping his 17-game scoreless streak.

  • Kevin Ginkel tossed a scoreless eighth, giving up a hit and striking out one.
  • Justin Martinez allowed a two-run home run by Shohei Ohtani and a walk while striking out one over his 1.1 innings. 

Hierarchy remains: Paul Sewald | Ryan Thompson | Kevin Ginkel

Cincinnati Reds Shutting the door on his 18th save, Alexis Díaz fired a clean bottom of the ninth and recorded one strikeout during a one-run win over the Yankees. He threw nine pitches (88.9 Strike%) and induced one whiff. He’s converted his last 10 save opportunities and owns a five-game scoreless streak.

  • Fernando Cruz tossed a clean eighth, striking out one for his 16th hold.
  • Sam Moll gave up a solo home run (Aaron Judge) and recorded two outs in the seventh, securing his eighth hold.
  • Nick Martinez notched his fifth hold, allowing a hit over 1.1 scoreless innings.

Hierarchy remains: Alexis Díaz | Fernando Cruz | Sam Moll

Colorado Rockies – Taking over with a one-run lead, Nick Mears suffered his fourth loss and second blown save. It began with a lead-off single by Andruw Monaterio, a Brice Turang walk, and a one-out single by Christian Yelich to load the bases. Mears allowed a game-tying sacrifice fly, issued a walk, and recorded a strikeout before his removal.

  • Justin Lawrence took over the bases-loaded situation, hitting Rhys Hoskins, forcing across a run, striking out Blake Perkins, and ending the inning.
  • Jalen Beeks was in line for the win after working a scoreless eighth, yielding a hit and striking out against the Brewers 5-6-7 lineup pocket.
  • Ty Blach was tagged with his first blown save, giving up three hits, an earned run, and a walk while striking out one over two innings. The Rockies’ last save was on June 11 by Tyler Kinley.

Hierarchy remains: Jalen Beeks | Victor Vodnik | Justin Lawrence

Los Angeles Dodgers – Despite allowing Joc Pederson’s go-ahead solo home run at the top of the ninth, Evan Phillips collected his first win courtesy of a walk-off rally at the bottom of the inning. He threw 13 pitches (11 strikes – 84.6 Strike%) without a whiff against Arizona’s 2-3-4-5 hitters. This snapped a nine-game scoreless stretch.

  • Blake Treinen suffered his second blown save in the eighth. He gave up a lead-off walk and a pinch-hit single on a bunt while committing a throwing error, which scored an unearned run.
  • Alex Vesia allowed three hits and an earned run while striking out one in the seventh.
  • Daniel Hudson tossed a scoreless sixth, yielding a hit and striking out two. 

Hierarchy remains: Evan Phillips | Daniel Hudson | Alex Vesia

Milwaukee Brewers – Capping a rally in the top of the ninth, Trevor Megill secured his 18th save, navigating around a two-out single by Ryan McMahon with a game-ending strikeout. He threw 16 pitches (75 Strike%) and did not record a whiff while striking out two. He’s been scoreless in 14 of his last 15 appearances and converted all 10 save chances with 14 strikeouts against four walks.

  • Rob Zastryzny collected his first win after stranding two runners and retiring both batters in the bottom of the eighth, one via strikeout.
  • Bryan Hudson worked a clean seventh, then gave up Brenton Doyle’s go-ahead RBI double and two walks in one-third of the eighth. He finished 1.1 innings with a hit allowed, an earned run, and two walks while striking out one.

Hierarchy remains: Trevor Megill | Joel Payamps | Bryan Hudson

New York Mets – José Buttó collected his second win, first as a reliever, tossing two scoreless frames. He allowed a hit and a walk while striking out one on 26 pitches (14 strikes – 53.8 Strike%) with two whiffs.

  • In a non-save outing, Dedniel Núñez retired the side and recorded a strikeout, finishing a five-run win in the bottom of the tenth in Washington. He threw 14 pitches (11 strikes – 78.6 Strike%) without a whiff.

Updated Hierarchy: *Reed Garrett | *Jake Diekman | Dedniel Núñez

*= match-up-based approach

Philadelphia Phillies – Forced into action in the bottom of the ninth, Jeff Hoffman was summoned with a two-run lead after José Ruiz allowed a three-run home run without recording an out. Hoffman recorded his seventh save, retiring all three batters and striking out two. He threw 11 pitches (72.7 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (27.3 SwStr%). He’s turned in two straight scoreless outings with a save in each.

  • Yunior Marte worked a clean eighth.
  • Orion Kerkering fired a clean seventh and recorded a strikeout. He owns a modest four-game scoreless streak.
  • Gregory Soto fired a clean sixth, striking out two.

Hierarchy remains: *José Alvarado | *Jeff Hoffman | Orion Kerkering

*= floating closer

San Francisco Giants – Locking down his 15th save, Camilo Doval fired a clean bottom of the ninth and recorded two strikeouts during a two-run win in Atlanta. He faced the 5-6-7 lineup pocket and threw 12 pitches (7 strikes – 58.3 Strike%) with two whiffs (16.7 SwStr%). He’s been scoreless in consecutive outings.

  • Tyler Rogers allowed two hits and an earned run while recording two strikeouts in the eighth for his 15th hold.
  • Ryan Walker retired the side in the seventh, securing his 15th hold.
  • Randy Rodríguez worked a clean sixth, notching his second hold.

Hierarchy remains: Camilo Doval | Tyler Rogers | Ryan Walker

St. Louis Cardinals – Preserving a three-run win and extending his save streak to 31, Ryan Helsley fired a clean ninth while striking out one in Pittsburgh. He threw 17 pitches (10 strikes – 58.8 Strike%) and induced two whiffs. He’s now tied for the 11th most consecutive saves converted with Jordan Romano and sits one behind Josh Hader (32, June 2021-June 2022).

  • JoJo Romero notched his 26th hold, retiring the side in the eighth.
  • Ryan Fernandez logged 1.1 scoreless frames, yielding a hit and securing his eighth hold.
  • John King recorded his fifth hold, allowing a hit and striking out one in two-thirds scoreless in the sixth.

Hierarchy remains: Ryan Helsley | Andrew Kittredge | JoJo Romero

Washington Nationals – Another rough tenth inning for the Nationals, this one by Robert Garcia. He suffered his third loss, giving up four hits, including a two-run home run by Pete Alonso, resulting in five runs (four earned).

  • Kyle Finnegan fired a clean ninth and recorded a strikeout. He threw 10 pitches (60 Strike%) and did not induce a whiff.
  • Hunter Harvey was tagged with his second blown save, allowing a Francisco Lindor double with one out and a game-tying RBI single by Brandon Nimmo. Harvey’s given up a run in four of his last five appearances.
  • Dylan Floro secured his ninth hold, logging 1.1 scoreless frames and striking out two.

Hierarchy Remains: Kyle Finnegan | Hunter Harvey | Dylan Floro

Vulture Save Options for Wednesday, July 3

  • Elvis Peguero (MIL): Megill has pitched in two straight games in Colorado, potentially putting Peguero atop the hierarchy for tonight’s match-up.
  • Daniel Hudson (LAD): Phillips has pitched in three of the last four games, putting Hudson at the front of the leverage ladder for a vulture save tonight.
  • Ryan Pressly (HOU): Although he did not enter, Josh Hader was warming up during the ninth in Toronto. He appeared in games on July 1 and June 29, plus he got hot for an appearance on the 30th, but a rain delay kept him from pitching in the game. Still, this represents throwing on four straight days. If he pitches tonight, then you will have Pressly for Thursday.
  • Tanner Rainey (WSH): Finnegan, Harvey, and Garcia have pitched on consecutive days, leaving Derek Law for a multiple-inning outing and Rainey for the potential save chance, not for the risk-averse.

Vulture Save Option for Thursday, July 4

  • Lucas Sims (CIN): If Alexis Díaz pitches tonight, it will be consecutive outings, but Sims has struggled recently, making this a risky venture at best.

Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community. Stay safe and be well.

Please consider becoming a premium subscriber for a one-time $20 donation to the site, featuring full-text emails with charts, column blurbs, and ad-free analysis.

Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

Baseball-Reference.com

Statcast