Despite a three-game slate, Monday provided high-leverage intrigue in each one. Houston held on for a two-run win over Toronto, the Mets prevailed in extra-innings barely, and Colorado won on a walk-off in the bottom of the tenth. Today’s Three Takeaways features two of these teams and one reliever struggling for the Nationals.
Three Takeaways
- Hader’s home runs: While converting 13 of 14 save chances this year, Josh Hader has an impressive 1.87 SIERA versus his 3.82 ERA, with his best WHIP (1.01), K-BB percentage (32.7) and swinging strike rate (18.7 percent) since 2021. Statcast data shows he ranks in the 99th percentile in strikeout percentage and whiff rate. However, after yesterday’s outing, he’s given up six home runs versus his first 150 batters faced, one every 25 plate appearances. In 2019, he allowed 15 home runs against 289 hitters, one every 19.3 per plate appearance as a frame of reference. It’s not one pitch: he’s allowed three on his sinker, two against his slider, and one off of his change-up. Rather, he’s allowing a higher hard-hit percentage (40) and owns a .412 expected on-base average on contact (xwOBAcon). Beneath the batted ball data, 59.2 percent of his batted ball events are fly balls (36.8) and line drives (22.4), with an almost five percent increase in his pull percentage allowed. He will remain his team’s closer, but fantasy managers must plan on more home runs and some rocky rides in save situations.
- Harvey’s rough patch: It’s tough to besmirch a reliever who ranks third in the majors with 23 holds, but Hunter Harvey’s recent outings have not gone well. He suffered the loss in Monday’s extra-inning contest against the Mets, allowing multiple earned runs for the second time in his last three appearances. Over his last 11 games since the start of June, he’s given up 17 hits, 14 runs (12 earned), and six walks while striking out 11 in 11 innings. This translates into a 2.09 WHIP, and he’s yielded a .354 batting average allowed with a 1.124 on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS). It’s not one pitch, either. His hard-hit rates since June are 52.2 hard-hit percent against his split-fingered fastball, 50 percent hard-hit rate versus his four-seam, 60 percent against his curve, and 50 percent versus his slider. Monitor his outcomes closely before the All-Star break; he may need an injured list stint for rest and a reset.
- Mets riding out the storm: Operating a man down amid 17 games in 17 days, New York held on after scoring six runs in the top of the tenth for a two-run win. After this game, the team’s relievers rank 28th in Win Probability Added (WPA) in the majors, and its 54 meltdowns (a Fangraphs metric that measures if a reliever hurts his team’s chances of winning) are tied for the fourth most with Colorado. Running on fumes, here’s the recent usage patterns for the team since June 21:
If a save chance presents itself today, here are the advanced metrics for the Mets relievers in this time frame:
Also posted today is our June Month in Review featuring saves, holds, SOLDS, and leaderboards.
Our updated Tiered Rankings for closers and SOLDS for Week 15 were published on Monday night.
Next, our condensed recaps cover Monday’s high-leverage events of interest.
Closer CliffsNotes
Colorado Rockies – Benefiting from a walk-off rally, Tyler Kinley collected his fourth win. He navigated around a walk and two stolen bases with a fielder’s choice groundout erasing the “place” runner at home, followed by an inning-ending strikeout in a scoreless tenth inning.
- Victor Vodnik fired a clean top of the ninth, preserving the tie while facing Milwaukee’s top of the lineup.
- Justin Lawrence suffered his fourth blown save in the eighth. He let both inherited runners score, one on a sacrifice fly and one on an RBI single. He gave up two hits during his two-thirds inning.
- Anthony Molina was credited with his first hold. After tossing a scoreless seventh, he ran into trouble in the eighth, allowing a triple followed by two singles before being removed. He finished with three earned runs, three hits, and a walk while striking out two over 1.1 innings.
Updated Hierarchy: Jalen Beeks | Victor Vodnik | Justin Lawrence
Houston Astros – Although he did not preserve the shutout, Josh Hader secured his 13th save, closing out a two-run win in Toronto. He allowed Ernie Clement’s solo home run and recorded one strikeout in the ninth. He ranks second among all American League relievers (60), but he’s allowed six home runs, including two in his last three appearances.
- Bryan Abreu worked into, then out of trouble for a scoreless eighth and his 18th hold. He worked around a hit, a hit batter, and a walk while striking out one.
- Rafael Montero retired the side on seven pitches in the seventh, notching his ninth hold.
Hierarchy remains: Josh Hader | Ryan Pressly | Bryan Abreu
Milwaukee Brewers – Tasked with a tied score in the bottom of the tenth, Joel Payamps induced a flyout that advanced the “place” runner to third. He then issued two intentional walks (Brenton Doyle and Nolan Jones), loading the bases with one out. However, Jake Cave produced an RBI walk-off single, handing Payamps his fifth loss.
- Trevor Megill worked around a runner reaching on an error and a single for a scoreless ninth. He threw 15 pitches (11 strikes—73.3 Strike%) and recorded one whiff, extending his scoreless streak to eight games.
- Elvis Peguero suffered his third blown save, allowing two hits, including Doyle’s game-tying solo home run in the eighth.
Hierarchy remains: Trevor Megill | Joel Payamps | Bryan Hudson
New York Mets – Pressed into action in the bottom of the tenth, Reed Garrett entered with two runners on, two outs, and a three-run lead. He allowed Keibert Ruiz’s RBI single and produced a game-ending strikeout for his fourth save. It was not pretty but still counts.
- Tyler Jay gave up two hits, four runs (three earned), and two walks while striking out two in two-thirds of the tenth.
- Jake Diekman collected his second win after retiring the side in the ninth ahead of his team’s six-run outburst in the top of the tenth.
- Dedniel Núñez suffered his first blown save, allowing a game-tying RBI double in the bottom of the eighth. Núñez logged 1.2 innings, giving up a hit, an earned run, and a walk while striking out one.
Updated Hierarchy: *Reed Garrett | *Jake Diekman | Dedniel Núñez
*= match-up-based approach
Washington Nationals – Taking over in the top of the tenth, Hunter Harvey had a rough outing. During his two-thirds inning, he allowed three hits, including a three-run home run by J.D. Martinez, a hit batter, and five runs (four earned), resulting in his fourth loss. He’s allowed at least a run in three of his last four games and multiple runs in two.
- Kyle Finnegan fired a clean ninth, recorded a strikeout on 13 pitches (9 strikes – 69.2 Strike%), and induced two whiffs (15.4 SwStr%).
- Dylan Floro logged 1.1 scoreless innings, giving up a walk and striking out two.
- Robert Garcia gave up a hit and struck out two in the seventh.
- Derek Law suffered his third blown save, letting an inherited runner score while allowing two hits and two unearned runs in one-third of the sixth.
Hierarchy Remains: Kyle Finnegan | Hunter Harvey | Dylan Floro
Vulture Save Option for Tuesday, July 2
- Ryan Pressly (HOU): Although Hader appears to have pitched only twice in the last three days, he warmed up to enter on Sunday but did not pitch because of a rain delay. He’s likely unavailable today, so I’m putting Pressly in line for the save chance.
Vulture Save Option for Wednesday, July 3
- Enoli Paredes (MIL): If Megill pitches tonight, it will mark consecutive outings. Bryan Hudson has been terrific this season but usually gets the toughest lineup pocket in a set-up capacity, which may leave Paredes for the ninth in Wednesday’s match-up.
Closer Monkey’s nasty pitch of the day is Kyle Finnegan’s split-fingered fastball—video courtesy of the Pitching Ninja.
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