Monkey Bytes: July 1

Sunday’s slate was slippery for fantasy managers. Five relievers won, though two made a blown save. Six relievers secured saves, though two are considered ancillary. Ryan Helsley continued his march into the history books, and a team decision before spring training paved the way for his success, covered in our next segment.

Three Takeaways

  • Helsley’s one-inning limit: During a preseason meeting between Oli Marmol and Dusty Blake, it was determined the team would use Helsley in one-inning outings, hoping this would keep him healthy. For reference, he logged nine outings requiring more than three outs of his 51 games in 2021 (17.6 percent), 18 of 54 appearances in 2022 (33.3 percent), and 11 of 25 outings last year (44 percent). This season, he’s made zero in 38 contests. However, he leads all major league pitchers in saves (30), games finished (36), tied for fourth in high-leverage appearances (23), and has not entered a game with his team behind. For those tracking his consecutive save streak, he’s currently tied for the 12th longest at 30. Jordan Romano (31 between 2021 and 2022) and Josh Hader (32 between 2021 and 2022) would be next on the list.
  • Phillips’ trouble with the cutter: Working for a second straight game in a non-save situation, Evan Phillips allowed consecutive doubles by Heliot Ramos and Patrick Bailey at the bottom of the eighth. He also issued a walk, making his final line, two hits against, one earned run and a walk. His team’s options, limited by recent usage patterns, prompted this outing. However, he owns 1.05 WHIP after 26 outings this season. Entering this year, he was the only qualified reliever with at least 60 appearances, 60-plus innings, 60-plus strikeouts, and a WHIP below one in 2022 and 2023. This year, he’s struggling with left-handed hitters, allowing a .263 batting average against and a .744 on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS). Last year, he limited left-handed batters to a .222 batting average against and a .662 OPS for the season while using his cutter 64 percent of his pitches when ahead in counts. However, when delving into his splits-by-pitch, he’s using his cutter less this year because it’s not producing the same results. This explains why Alex Vesia keeps garnering ancillary save chances against left-handed hitting pockets:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/2TsgG/1/

  • A case for Estévez: It’s tough trusting Carlos Estévez after his second-half collapse last year, and it could happen again. However, despite producing a tremendous June, he’s rarely the focus of trade deadline columns or rumors. He finished first among all qualified relievers in WHIP (0.20), ninth in K-BB percentage (32.3), and 11th in SIERA (1.99) last month. For the season, he’s converted 13 of 16 save chances with a career-best 24 K-BB percentage and has a 3.00 ERA with a 3.04 SIERA. Teams could do worse than taking a chance on the pending free agent.

Closer CliffsNotes

American League

Boston Red SoxMoving back into a tie for fifth all-time in saves (436), Kenley Jansen fired a clean ninth and recorded a strikeout while preserving a three-run win over the Padres. He threw 10 pitches (80 Strike%) and generated three whiffs (30 SwStr%). He finished June with nine scoreless outings across 10 games, converting all seven save chances and collecting two wins with 10 strikeouts versus one walk.

  • Chris Martin notched his ninth hold, tossing a scoreless eighth, giving up a hit, and striking out one.
  • Justin Slaten gave up two hits and an earned run while striking out one over his 1.1 innings.

Hierarchy remains: Kenley Jansen | Chris Martin | Justin Slaten

Chicago White SoxIn an extended outing, Michael Soroka logged four innings, all from the 11th inning forward. He gave up a hit, two unearned runs, and two walks while striking out six. He suffered his eighth loss but probably deserved better.

  • Jared Shuster retired his only batter in the tenth, stranding two runners.
  • Steven Wilson allowed an unearned run and two walks while striking out one in two-thirds of the tenth.
  • Michael Kopech fired a clean ninth and recorded two strikeouts on eight pitches (87.5 Strike%) with two whiffs.
  • John Brebbia retired the side in the eighth, striking out one. 

Hierarchy remains: Michael Kopech | John Brebbia | Tanner Banks

Detroit Tigers – Forced into action with a one-run lead in the ninth, Tyler Holton recorded his second save, retiring Nolan Schanuel on a game-ending strikeout.

  • Shelby Miller created the save situation, allowing five earned runs on two home runs in the bottom of the ninth during his two-thirds of an inning.
  • Andrew Chafin tossed a scoreless eighth, yielding a hit and striking out two.

Updated Hierarchy: Jason Foley | Tyler Holton | Will Vest

Houston Astros – Finishing a five-run win, Luis Contreras retired the side in the bottom of the 11th against the Mets.

  • Tayler Scott collected his fourth win, giving up a hit, an unearned run, and a walk while striking out one over two innings following a prolonged rain delay.
  • With the score tied, Josh Hader warmed for the ninth, but the tarp was put on as he walked toward the mound and did not pitch after the delay.
  • Ryan Pressly fired a clean eighth.
  • Bryan Abreu allowed a two-run home run by Brandon Nimmo and issued two walks in the seventh.

Hierarchy remains: Josh Hader | Ryan Pressly | Bryan Abreu

Minnesota Twins – Nailing down his 12th save, Jhoan Durán fired a clean bottom of the ninth, closing out a two-run win in Seattle. He threw 19 pitches (13 strikes – 68.4 Strike%) and induced one whiff facing the 4-5-6 lineup pocket. This caps a tumultuous June during which he was scoreless in 10 of 12 outings while converting three of four save chances, allowing five earned runs, and producing a 10:3 K:BB over 11.2 innings.

  • Kody Funderburk secured his fifth hold, retiring the side in the eighth.
  • Cole Sands let his only inherited runner score in one-third of the seventh. He was tagged with his third blown save and awarded his third win.
  • Steven Okert recorded two outs but gave up a hit and an earned run during his fifth hold.

Hierarchy remains: Jhoan Durán | Griffin Jax | Jorge Alcala

Seattle Mariners – With the score tied in the top of the eighth, Ryne Stanek suffered his second loss, giving up two hits, including Trevor Larnach’s go-ahead two-run home run.

  • Trent Thornton tossed a clean ninth and struck out one.
  • Mike Baumann retired the side in the seventh.
  • Austin Voth worked a clean sixth, striking out two.

Hierarchy remains: Andrés Muñoz | Ryne Stanek | Trent Thornton

National League

Arizona Diamondbacks – Taking over in the seventh, Joe Mantiply retired the side in order and recorded a strikeout. He collected his third win courtesy of a three-run rally in the bottom of the frame.

  • Ryan Thompson notched his 12th hold, firing a clean eighth and striking out two.
  • Paul Sewald worked a clean ninth and recorded two strikeouts on 13 pitches (11 strikes – 84.6 Strike%) with three whiffs (23.1 SwStr%), preserving a four-run win. He finished June with 10 scoreless outings and converted all six save chances.

Hierarchy remains: Paul Sewald | Ryan Thompson | Kevin Ginkel

Colorado Rockies – Although he suffered his sixth blown save in the bottom of the 13th, Jalen Beeks preserved a one-run lead in the 14th for his fifth win. He logged two innings, giving up two hits and an unearned run while striking out one.

  • Tyler Kinley tossed two scoreless frames, issuing a walk and striking out one.
  • Nick Mears also let the “place” runner score in the tenth, getting tagged with his first blown save.
  • Justin Lawrence worked a scoreless ninth, yielding a hit and keeping the game tied.
  • Victor Vodnik let one of three inherited runners score on a bases-loaded walk and recorded two strikeouts over 1.1 scoreless, resulting in his second blown save. 

Updated Hierarchy: Jalen Beeks | Justin Lawrence | Victor Vodnik

New York Mets – Entering in the top of the 11th, Matt Festa suffered his first loss, allowing four hits, five runs (four earned), and a walk while striking out one against the Astros.

  • Adam Ottavino let the “place” runner score in the tenth on an RBI single by Chas McCormick.
  • Adrian Houser logged two scoreless frames, scattering two hits and striking out one, keeping the game tied.

Updated Hierarchy: *Reed Garrett | *Jake Diekman | Dedniel Núñez

*= match-up-based approach

Philadelphia Phillies – Summoned with a one-run lead in the ninth, Jeff Hoffman recorded his sixth save. He worked around an error by Trea Turner with a scoreless ninth and one strikeout. He threw 10 pitches (80 Strike%) and produced two whiffs. He made 11 appearances in June and finished 12 strikeouts against one walk with a win, a save, and three holds.

  • Gregory Soto fired a clean eighth and recorded two strikeouts for his fifth hold.
  • Seranthony Domínguez collected his third win, working a scoreless seventh, allowing a hit and a walk while striking out one.

Hierarchy remains: *José Alvarado | *Jeff Hoffman | Orion Kerkering

*= floating closer

Pittsburgh Pirates – Pitching for a second straight day, Aroldis Chapman ran into trouble but held on for his third save. He allowed Adam Duvall’s one-out single, followed by Sean Murphy’s double, then bore down, inducing a sacrifice fly and a game-ending groundout. He’s allowed a run in his last two saves over his last three appearances, but fantasy managers will take the risk if he keeps producing them.

  • Carmen Mlodzinski gave up a hit and struck out one in a scoreless eighth for his first hold.
  • Kyle Nicolas logged two scoreless frames, giving up a hit and a walk while striking out three, earning his second hold.
  • Per Ben Cherington, David Bednar is making progress toward a return. 

Hierarchy remains: Aroldis Chapman | Colin Holderman | Kyle Nicolas

St. Louis Cardinals – Shutting the door on his 30th save, Ryan Helsley fired a clean top of the ninth and recorded two strikeouts, preserving a combined shutout of the Reds. He tied Francisco Rodríguez (2015) with 30 straight saves for the 12th-longest streak in MLB history and sits within one of Jordan Romano (2021-2022). Helsley finished June 11 scoreless appearances in 13 games while converting all 12 save chances with 12 strikeouts against four walks.

  • JoJo Romero retired all four batters for his MLB-leading 25th hold.
  • Andrew Kittredge secured his 24th hold, walking one during two-thirds scoreless in the seventh.

Hierarchy remains: Ryan Helsley | Andrew Kittredge | JoJo Romero

Vulture Save Option for Monday, July 1

  • Dedniel Núñez (NYM): He’s recorded a win in his last two appearances and multiple strikeouts in four of his eight June outings. Over the last 30 days, he owns a 30.4 K-BB percentage with a 16.3 percent swinging strike rate, a 75 strike percentage, and a 74 percent contact rate allowed. He may not get the save, but he could garner a win or provide strikeouts on a limited slate.

Vulture Save Option for Tuesday, July 2

  • Ryan Pressly (HOU): If Josh Hader pitches tonight, it will be only two of the last three. However, he also prepared to pitch on Sunday and did not appear because of the rain delay, which factors into his usage patterns.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

Baseball-Reference.com

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