First, a happy and safe July Fourth to our Closer Monkey community. Please enjoy your time with family and friends. During last night’s full slate, relievers had two multiple-inning wins, two wins after a blown save, and six in all. There were eight saves, including a historical one by Craig Kimbrel. He moved into fourth place all-time, recording his 438th career saves. He’s been very good since reclaiming the closer role, which segues nicely.
Three Takeaways
Kimbrel’s recent surge: In a six-game stretch between April 24 and May 8, he allowed a run in five contests, resulting in a loss and two blown saves, which resulted in his removal from save opportunities. Over his last 20 games, he’s been scoreless in 18, converting 13 saves with a 27:5 K:BB (31.9 K-BB percentage), a 0.53 WHIP, and a 1.97 SIERA. Among qualified relievers, he ranks fourth in K-BB percentage, second in WHIP, and eighth in SIERA in this sample. Only Ryan Helsley (20), Trevor Megill (15), and Emmanuel Clase (14) have more saves since May 10. Outcomes in high-leverage can be volatile, and though not perfect, Kimbrel’s resiliency and grace in handling his removal from save opportunities make his recent results even more impressive.
Suarez “changing” his pitch mix?: While nailing down his 21st save Tuesday night, Robert Suarez threw six season-high change-ups against Texas. Last season, he threw his change-up 33.4 percent of his pitches, producing a 16.7 swinging strike percentage with a 37.5 percent whiff rate. This year, he’s relied on his four-seam fastball but could see an uptick in strikeout rate if the change-up regains past form. For an illustration, here is his pitch usage percentage this year, courtesy of Statcast:
Toronto’s pending fire sale: As noted in Keegan Matheson’s game recap for MLB.com, the Blue Jays’ loss last night left them with a 39-47 record and eight games out of the last Wild Card spot, with 21 games remaining until the trade deadline. Jordan Romano underwent an arthroscopic procedure for an impingement in his elbow and has been shut down from throwing for six weeks. Yimi García may begin his rehab outings for a return near the All-Star break, but he’s a pending free agent at the end of the season. This means he will be a trade candidate once he’s back, which may limit his upside for those hoping he regains a save share. If Toronto can get a desirable return, it may even trade Chad Green, which would remove the top three relievers in its high-leverage triumvirate for August, making mining saves in this bullpen potentially very difficult in the second half.
Next, our condensed game recaps cover Tuesday’s high-leverage moments of interest.
Closer CliffsNotes
American League
Baltimore Orioles – Baltimore: Not only did Craig Kimbrel fire a clean ninth for his 21st save of the season, he moved into fourth all-time, securing his 438th, surpassing Francisco Rodríguez. Only Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, and Lee Smith have more saves in MLB history than Kimbrel. In this outing, he threw 18 pitches (11 strikes – 61.1 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (16.7 SwStr%) while striking out two in Seattle. He owns a modest five-game scoreless streak with a save in each appearance.
Cionel Pérez notched his 12th hold, giving up a hit and striking out one in a scoreless eighth.
Jacob Webb logged 1.1 scoreless frames, yielding a hit and striking out one for his tenth hold.
Houston Astros – Summoned with two outs and a runner on second, Tayler Scott gave up a game-tying RBI single by Daulton Varsho, who was thrown out trying to reach second. Scott was credited with his fifth win and second blown save after his teammates scored four runs in the top of the seventh, representing a true vulture win.
Bryan Abreu fired a clean seventh, striking out one on 11 pitches (63.6 Strike%) without a whiff.
Bryan King and Rafael Montero tossed clean innings while recording a strikeout, finishing a seven-run win.
Hierarchy remains: Josh Hader | Ryan Pressly | Bryan Abreu
Kansas City Royals – A salute to “The General” after recording his fourth career save requiring five outs or more. James McArthur took over with two runners on and one out in the top of the eighth, stranding both. He returned for the ninth and navigated around a lead-off single with a strikeout, a flyout, and a game-ending groundout for his 15th save. He’s been scoreless in 11 of his last 12 appearances and converted four saves.
Chris Stratton was credited with his fifth hold, allowing two hits, an earned run, and a walk during his one-third of the eighth.
Angel Zerpa stranded two runners while striking out Jonny DeLuca in the seventh, securing his ninth hold.
John Schreiber tossed two-thirds scoreless in the seventh, walking one and striking out one for his 18th hold.
Hierarchy remains: James McArthur | John Schreiber | Chris Stratton
Toronto Blue Jays – After stranding a runner in the sixth, Zach Pop returned for the seventh, and things did not go well. He allowed the lead-off hitter to reach on a throwing error, a double, and a single before being lifted. He finished with two hits against and three runs (two earned) over two-thirds combined innings.
Jose Cuas replaced Pop and let both inherited runners score, issuing an intentional walk, giving up a two-RBI single, hitting two batters with a pitch, and being removed without recording an out.
Brendon Little stranded the bases-loaded during his two-thirds of the seventh.
Those hanging on for a potential return by Jordan Romano received concerning news this afternoon. Per Keegan Matheson of MLB.com, Toronto’s closer underwent arthroscopic surgery on his elbow and will not throw for six weeks. It’s undetermined if he will return this season, but even if he can, it would be September at the earliest. He can be cut in redraft formats.
In a separate update, Yimi García will throw a side session today and could head out on a rehab assignment if he comes through it with no issues.
Hierarchy remains: Chad Green | Trevor Richards | Nate Pearson
National League
Atlanta Braves – Making his first appearance in July, Raisel Iglesias secured his 21st save and first since June 23 with a scoreless ninth. He allowed a one-out single and recorded a strikeout on 16 pitches (11 strikes – 68.8 Strike%) with three whiffs (18.8 SwStr%). He’s been scoreless in 10 of his last 11 games and converted all seven opportunities with 12 strikeouts against two walks.
Joe Jiménez notched his 17th hold, retiring the side and striking out one in the eighth.
A.J. Minter displayed no signs of rust, recording his eighth hold with a clean seventh and striking out one.
Updated Hierarchy: Raisel Iglesias | Joe Jiménez | A.J. Minter
Chicago Cubs – With the score tied in the top of the eighth, Tyson Miller allowed a lead-off single by Trea Turner and an Alec Bohm single before inducing a Nick Castellanos pop-out. A passed ball put runners on second and third, enabling a go-ahead sacrifice fly, followed by a two-out RBI single by Whit Merrifield, before an inning-ending strikeout. Miller was tagged with his first loss, giving up three hits and two runs (one earned) in his outing.
Porter Hodge retired the side in the seventh and recorded a strikeout on 12 pitches (7 strikes – 58.3 Strike%) without a whiff.
Hierarchy remains: Héctor Neris | Tyson Miller | Porter Hodge
Cincinnati Reds – Navigating around a lead-off walk, Alexis Díaz induced a double play groundout by Anthony Volpe and a game-ending flyout by Juan Soto for his 19th save. He threw 14 pitches (9 strikes – 64.3 Strike%) and induced one whiff. He owns a six-game scoreless streak and has converted his last 12 saves since May 21.
Justin Wilson stranded two runners while striking out Trent Grisham in the eighth for his eighth hold.
Lucas Sims was credited with his 11th hold despite giving up a hit and a walk over two-thirds of the eighth.
Fernando Cruz struggled in the seventh, letting his only inherited runner score on a Volpe double, walked Soto, and bore down, inducing an inning-ending double play groundout by Aaron Judge for his 17th hold.
Hierarchy remains: Alexis Díaz | Fernando Cruz | Sam Moll
Milwaukee Brewers – Completing a combined shutout, Jakob Junis recorded his first save of the season and second of his career. He logged two scoreless frames, scattering two hits and issuing a walk while striking out two. He threw 35 pitches (23 strikes – 65.7 Strike%) and induced four whiffs. He’s been scoreless over his last three games, spanning six innings.
Hierarchy remains: Trevor Megill | Joel Payamps | Bryan Hudson
New York Mets – Jake Diekman suffered his third loss and blown save during his one-third of the seventh. He issued CJ Abrams a walk with two outs and gave up Lane Thomas’ game-tying RBI double, followed by a go-ahead RBI single by James Woods, before striking out Jesse Winker, ending the inning.
Entering in the sixth with a one-run lead, Adam Ottavino retired a batter and two more in the seventh for his 13th hold.
Philadelphia Phillies – Recording his 13th save, José Alvarado worked around a one-out single by David Bote with a lineout and a game-ending strikeout, finishing a two-run win over the Cubs. He threw 17 pitches (12 strikes – 70.6 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (17.6 SwStr%). This marked his first save since June 11, and he’s been scoreless in six of his last seven games, with seven strikeouts against zero walks.
Orion Kerkering notched his sixth hold, giving up a hit and striking out two in a scoreless eighth.
Although Matt Strahm suffered his fourth blown save, he collected his fourth win courtesy of a two-run rally in the top of the eighth by his teammates. He allowed two hits, including a game-tying RBI single by Cody Bellinger, and recorded two strikeouts in the seventh.
Pittsburgh Pirates – Making his first multi-inning outing since September 19, 2023, Aroldis Chapman collected his first win despite letting the “place” runner score in the top of the tenth, aided by his not covering first base. He finished his two innings, giving up a hit, an unearned run, and a walk while striking out three. He threw 27 pitches (20 strikes – 74.1 Strike%) and produced four whiffs (14.8 SwStr%).
Colin Holderman suffered his third blown save, allowing three hits, including a game-tying two-run home run by William Contreras, and recorded a strikeout in the top of the eighth. He’s allowed multiple runs in two of his last four contests.
Carmen Mlodzinski secured his second hold, firing a clean seventh and striking out two.
Kyle Nicolas tossed a scoreless sixth, walking one and striking out one for his third hold.
Hierarchy remains: Aroldis Chapman | Colin Holderman | Kyle Nicolas
San Diego Padres – Shutting the door on his 21st save, Robert Suarez retired all four batters faced, two via strikeout, preserving a two-run win in Texas. He took over in the eighth with a runner on and recorded an inning-ending groundout, then fired a clean ninth, throwing 14 pitches (71.4 Strike%) and generating four whiffs (28.6 SwStr%). He last recorded a save on June 25, and he’s not allowed an earned run over his last five appearances while converting all four save chances.
Jeremiah Estrada secured his seventh hold, giving up a hit and striking out two during two-thirds scoreless in the eighth.
Adrian Morejon collected his second win, logging 1.2 scoreless frames and striking out one.
Yuki Matsui worked 1.1 scoreless innings, yielding a hit and issuing an intentional walk (Wyatt Langford) while striking out four.
Hierarchy remains: Robert Suarez | Jeremiah Estrada | Enyel De Los Santos
St. Louis Cardinals – Taking over in the bottom of the tenth with two runners on and no outs, JoJo Romero suffered his fourth blown save, allowing consecutive RBI singles by Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz, resulting in a walk-off defeat.
Andrew Kittredge was tagged with his fourth loss. In his 1.1 innings, he gave up a hit, two runs (one earned), and a walk while striking out two.
Matthew Liberatore stranded two runners in the seventh and gave up a hit over 1.2 scoreless frames.
Giovanny Gallegos allowed two hits, including a Rowdy Tellez solo home run in his one-third of the seventh.
Hierarchy remains: Ryan Helsley | Andrew Kittredge | JoJo Romero
Washington Nationals – Appearing in a third straight game, Kyle Finnegan locked down his 23rd save by retiring the side and preserving a two-run win over the Mets. He threw 11 pitches (63.6 Strike%) without getting a whiff facing the 4-5-6 lineup pocket. He’s been scoreless in eight of his last nine games, converting four of five saves with nine strikeouts versus two walks.
Hunter Harvey notched his 24th hold, retiring his only batter via strikeout and stranding two runners.
Robert Garcia allowed a walk and recorded a strikeout in two-thirds scoreless of the eighth for his tenth hold.
Jacob Barnes collected his fourth win, tossing a clean seventh ahead of his team’s two-run rally in the bottom of the inning.
Yennier Cano (BAL): Kimbrel has pitched in two straight and will be off today. Cano did warm up for last night’s contest but was not summoned.
Nick Martinez (CIN): Díaz converted saves in the two previous games, and Cruz has also pitched in back-to-back contests, leaving Martinez in line for a potential multi-inning save with eyes on a sweep in New York.
Dylan Floro (WSH): Washington’s high-leverage triumvirate has worked in three consecutive games, leaving the leverage ladder a bit thin. Derek Law may log multiple innings, and Floro should be in line for the save if provided.
Carlos Hernández (KCR): “The General” threw 24 pitches and could have the save opportunity. If not, Hernández may be summoned in the ninth.
Vulture Save Options for Friday, July 5
Pierce Johnson (ATL): If Iglesias pitches today, it will be back-to-back outings.
Luke Weaver (NYY): If Holmes gets a save chance today, it will mark consecutive appearances.
David Robertson (TEX): If Yates appears in today’s game, it will be two in a row, leaving the veteran Robertson in line for a save on Friday.
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Tuesday provided plenty of high-leverage events of interest, including walk-offs by the Dodgers and the Guardians, plus another extra-inning contest between the Mets and Nationals. Relievers recorded five wins and eight saves on this slate, including one by a newly promoted pitcher for the Mets, who may alter the team’s plans ahead of the trade deadline.
Three Takeaways
Could José Buttó alter the Mets’ deadline plans? Out of necessity, New York promoted José Buttó, who delivered two scoreless innings during an eventual win over the Nationals. Although the team prefers keeping him stretched out if they need a starting pitcher, his presence in the bullpen would allow the team to use Dedniel Núñez as a more traditional one-inning reliever, strengthening a glaring weakness in the leverage ladder.
Miller’s metamorphosis: It’s not that Mason Miller allowed two earned runs in a non-save appearance; it’s the rise in contact allowed as the season has progressed. There was no way he could continue his dominant start to the season. Still, fantasy managers must adjust their expectations for him moving forward, illustrated by his rolling 10-game chart from Fangraphs:
Rockies leverage woes continue: It’s been 18 games since Colorado recorded a save. Tyler Kinley closed out a win against the Twins on June 11. In last night’s game, manager Bud Black used Jalen Beeks in a tied game at the top of the eighth against Milwaukee’s 5-6-7 lineup pocket. He turned in a scoreless outing and was in line for the win until a blown save by Nick Mears in the top of the ninth. He was used out of necessity based on past usage patterns, but it’s tough trusting any reliever not named Beeks in this leverage ladder in any format:
Time will tell who emerges in the Rockies’ bullpen, especially with Beeks, a pending free agent, on the trade block. As for last night, our condensed game recaps cover the high-leverage moments of interest.
Closer CliffsNotes
American League
Baltimore Orioles – Completing the combined shutout and recording his 20th save, Craig Kimbrel worked around a lead-off hit-by-pitch (Luke Raley), a one-out hit batter (Jorge Polanco), with a groundout, followed by a game-ending strikeout of Julio Rodríguez. He threw 17 pitches (10 strikes – 58.8 Strike%) without a whiff while striking out two in his outing. The good news is that he’s riding a four-game scoreless streak with a save in each outing, and the two-hit batters do not affect his WHIP.
Cionel Pérez retired the side in the eighth for his 11th hold.
Yennier Cano stranded a runner and retired both batters, one via strikeout, while securing his 21st hold in the seventh.
Chicago White Sox – It was a tough-luck loss for Michael Kopech. He took over a tied contest in the bottom of the ninth and allowed a lead-off single. After a fielder’s choice groundout moved the runner to second, Kopech caught a spike, throwing a wild pitch, putting him on third. With one out, he allowed a walk-off sacrifice fly.
John Brebbia fired a clean eighth, striking out two against Cleveland’s 3-4-5 lineup pocket.
Tanner Banks retired the side in the seventh and recorded one strikeout.
Hierarchy remains: Michael Kopech | John Brebbia | Tanner Banks
Cleveland Guardians – With the score tied, Emmanuel Clase retired the side in the top of the ninth while facing the White Sox 7-8-9 hitters. He collected his fourth win courtesy of a walk-off in the bottom of the inning. He threw 10 pitches (60 Strike%) and induced one whiff. This extended his scoreless streak to eight games, during which he’s recorded five strikeouts against one walk and converted five saves.
Scott Barlow tossed a scoreless eighth, giving up a hit and striking out three.
Hunter Gaddis suffered his fourth blown save. He took over in the seventh with two runners on and let both score on a single by Luis Robert Jr. before the next two batters, one via strikeout.
Cade Smith gets credit for his 14th hold despite allowing three hits and three earned runs during his one-third of the seventh.
Updated Hierarchy: Emmanuel Clase | Hunter Gaddis | Scott Barlow
Minnesota Twins – Nailing down his 13th save, Jhoan Durán retired the side and recorded one strikeout in the top of the ninth against the Tigers’ 5-6-7 lineup pocket. He threw 13 pitches (8 strikes – 61.5 Strike%) and induced two whiffs. He’s been scoreless in 10 of his last 11 outings with nine strikeouts against two walks across 11 innings.
Griffin Jax gave up a hit and struck out one during a scoreless eighth for his 13th hold.
Jorge Alcala collected his second win, retiring all four batters faced and striking out one.
Oakland A’s – Entering with a four-run lead, Mason Miller issued a lead-off walk, a leverage no-no. He bounced back with two quick outs but allowed an RBI double by Nolan Schanuel, followed by Luis Rengifo’s RBI single, before inducing a game-ending strikeout. He threw 24 pitches (66.7 Strike%) and did not produce a whiff while giving up two hits, two earned runs, and a walk.
Lucas Erceg tossed a scoreless eighth, yielding a hit and striking out one.
Scott Alexander let both inherited runners score on a Schanuel single before getting an inning-ending double play in the seventh.
Updated Hierarchy: Mason Miller | Lucas Erceg | Scott Alexander
Tampa Bay Rays – During a non-save appearance, Pete Fairbanks finished a four-run win over the Royals with a clean bottom of the ninth. He threw 14 pitches (57.1 Strike%) without a whiff. He owns a modest four-game scoreless streak and converted his last three save chances.
Jason Adam fired a clean eighth and recorded a strikeout for his 14th hold.
Colin Poche allowed a hit while tossing a scoreless seventh and secured his eighth hold.
Kevin Kelly gave up a solo home run (Bobby Witt Jr.) and struck out one in the sixth, getting credit for his ninth hold.
Hierarchy remains: Pete Fairbanks | Jason Adam | Colin Poche
Toronto Blue Jays – Navigating around a lead-off double, Chad Green bore down and retired the next three Astros hitters on two strikeouts, followed by Jose Altuve’s game-ending flyout. This marked his third save of the season and first since April 9. He threw 16 pitches (75 Strike%) and generated four whiffs (25 SwStr%). He also extended his scoreless streak to eight games.
Trevor Richards garnered his sixth hold, giving up a hit and an unearned run in the eighth.
Nate Pearson logged two scoreless frames, yielding a hit and striking out three.
Updated Hierarchy: Chad Green | Trevor Richards | Nate Pearson
National League
Arizona Diamondbacks – With a one-run lead in the bottom of the ninth, Paul Sewald suffered his first loss and blown save during a walk-off rally in Los Angeles. It started rather innocently with consecutive strikeouts of Gavin Lux and Shohei Ohtani. However, Will Smith produced a two-out double, Freddie Freeman hit an RBI double, and the game-winning RBI single by Teoscar Hernández completed the rally. Sewald threw 17 pitches (14 strikes – 82.4 Strike%) without a whiff while giving up three hits and two earned runs, snapping his 17-game scoreless streak.
Kevin Ginkel tossed a scoreless eighth, giving up a hit and striking out one.
Justin Martinez allowed a two-run home run by Shohei Ohtani and a walk while striking out one over his 1.1 innings.
Hierarchy remains: Paul Sewald | Ryan Thompson | Kevin Ginkel
Cincinnati Reds – Shutting the door on his 18th save, Alexis Díaz fired a clean bottom of the ninth and recorded one strikeout during a one-run win over the Yankees. He threw nine pitches (88.9 Strike%) and induced one whiff. He’s converted his last 10 save opportunities and owns a five-game scoreless streak.
Fernando Cruz tossed a clean eighth, striking out one for his 16th hold.
Sam Moll gave up a solo home run (Aaron Judge) and recorded two outs in the seventh, securing his eighth hold.
Nick Martinez notched his fifth hold, allowing a hit over 1.1 scoreless innings.
Hierarchy remains: Alexis Díaz | Fernando Cruz | Sam Moll
Colorado Rockies – Taking over with a one-run lead, Nick Mears suffered his fourth loss and second blown save. It began with a lead-off single by Andruw Monaterio, a Brice Turang walk, and a one-out single by Christian Yelich to load the bases. Mears allowed a game-tying sacrifice fly, issued a walk, and recorded a strikeout before his removal.
Justin Lawrence took over the bases-loaded situation, hitting Rhys Hoskins, forcing across a run, striking out Blake Perkins, and ending the inning.
Jalen Beeks was in line for the win after working a scoreless eighth, yielding a hit and striking out against the Brewers 5-6-7 lineup pocket.
Ty Blach was tagged with his first blown save, giving up three hits, an earned run, and a walk while striking out one over two innings. The Rockies’ last save was on June 11 by Tyler Kinley.
Hierarchy remains: Jalen Beeks | Victor Vodnik | Justin Lawrence
Los Angeles Dodgers – Despite allowing Joc Pederson’s go-ahead solo home run at the top of the ninth, Evan Phillips collected his first win courtesy of a walk-off rally at the bottom of the inning. He threw 13 pitches (11 strikes – 84.6 Strike%) without a whiff against Arizona’s 2-3-4-5 hitters. This snapped a nine-game scoreless stretch.
Blake Treinen suffered his second blown save in the eighth. He gave up a lead-off walk and a pinch-hit single on a bunt while committing a throwing error, which scored an unearned run.
Alex Vesia allowed three hits and an earned run while striking out one in the seventh.
Daniel Hudson tossed a scoreless sixth, yielding a hit and striking out two.
Hierarchy remains: Evan Phillips | Daniel Hudson | Alex Vesia
Milwaukee Brewers – Capping a rally in the top of the ninth, Trevor Megill secured his 18th save, navigating around a two-out single by Ryan McMahon with a game-ending strikeout. He threw 16 pitches (75 Strike%) and did not record a whiff while striking out two. He’s been scoreless in 14 of his last 15 appearances and converted all 10 save chances with 14 strikeouts against four walks.
Rob Zastryzny collected his first win after stranding two runners and retiring both batters in the bottom of the eighth, one via strikeout.
Bryan Hudson worked a clean seventh, then gave up Brenton Doyle’s go-ahead RBI double and two walks in one-third of the eighth. He finished 1.1 innings with a hit allowed, an earned run, and two walks while striking out one.
Hierarchy remains: Trevor Megill | Joel Payamps | Bryan Hudson
New York Mets – José Buttó collected his second win, first as a reliever, tossing two scoreless frames. He allowed a hit and a walk while striking out one on 26 pitches (14 strikes – 53.8 Strike%) with two whiffs.
In a non-save outing, Dedniel Núñez retired the side and recorded a strikeout, finishing a five-run win in the bottom of the tenth in Washington. He threw 14 pitches (11 strikes – 78.6 Strike%) without a whiff.
Philadelphia Phillies – Forced into action in the bottom of the ninth, Jeff Hoffman was summoned with a two-run lead after José Ruiz allowed a three-run home run without recording an out. Hoffman recorded his seventh save, retiring all three batters and striking out two. He threw 11 pitches (72.7 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (27.3 SwStr%). He’s turned in two straight scoreless outings with a save in each.
Yunior Marte worked a clean eighth.
Orion Kerkering fired a clean seventh and recorded a strikeout. He owns a modest four-game scoreless streak.
Gregory Soto fired a clean sixth, striking out two.
San Francisco Giants – Locking down his 15th save, Camilo Doval fired a clean bottom of the ninth and recorded two strikeouts during a two-run win in Atlanta. He faced the 5-6-7 lineup pocket and threw 12 pitches (7 strikes – 58.3 Strike%) with two whiffs (16.7 SwStr%). He’s been scoreless in consecutive outings.
Tyler Rogers allowed two hits and an earned run while recording two strikeouts in the eighth for his 15th hold.
Ryan Walker retired the side in the seventh, securing his 15th hold.
Randy Rodríguez worked a clean sixth, notching his second hold.
Hierarchy remains: Camilo Doval | Tyler Rogers | Ryan Walker
St. Louis Cardinals – Preserving a three-run win and extending his save streak to 31, Ryan Helsley fired a clean ninth while striking out one in Pittsburgh. He threw 17 pitches (10 strikes – 58.8 Strike%) and induced two whiffs. He’s now tied for the 11th most consecutive saves converted with Jordan Romano and sits one behind Josh Hader (32, June 2021-June 2022).
JoJo Romero notched his 26th hold, retiring the side in the eighth.
Ryan Fernandez logged 1.1 scoreless frames, yielding a hit and securing his eighth hold.
John King recorded his fifth hold, allowing a hit and striking out one in two-thirds scoreless in the sixth.
Hierarchy remains: Ryan Helsley | Andrew Kittredge | JoJo Romero
Washington Nationals – Another rough tenth inning for the Nationals, this one by Robert Garcia. He suffered his third loss, giving up four hits, including a two-run home run by Pete Alonso, resulting in five runs (four earned).
Kyle Finnegan fired a clean ninth and recorded a strikeout. He threw 10 pitches (60 Strike%) and did not induce a whiff.
Hunter Harvey was tagged with his second blown save, allowing a Francisco Lindor double with one out and a game-tying RBI single by Brandon Nimmo. Harvey’s given up a run in four of his last five appearances.
Dylan Floro secured his ninth hold, logging 1.1 scoreless frames and striking out two.
Elvis Peguero (MIL): Megill has pitched in two straight games in Colorado, potentially putting Peguero atop the hierarchy for tonight’s match-up.
Daniel Hudson (LAD): Phillips has pitched in three of the last four games, putting Hudson at the front of the leverage ladder for a vulture save tonight.
Ryan Pressly (HOU): Although he did not enter, Josh Hader was warming up during the ninth in Toronto. He appeared in games on July 1 and June 29, plus he got hot for an appearance on the 30th, but a rain delay kept him from pitching in the game. Still, this represents throwing on four straight days. If he pitches tonight, then you will have Pressly for Thursday.
Tanner Rainey (WSH): Finnegan, Harvey, and Garcia have pitched on consecutive days, leaving Derek Law for a multiple-inning outing and Rainey for the potential save chance, not for the risk-averse.
Vulture Save Option for Thursday, July 4
Lucas Sims (CIN): If Alexis Díaz pitches tonight, it will be consecutive outings, but Sims has struggled recently, making this a risky venture at best.
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Despite a three-game slate, Monday provided high-leverage intrigue in each one. Houston held on for a two-run win over Toronto, the Mets prevailed in extra-innings barely, and Colorado won on a walk-off in the bottom of the tenth. Today’s Three Takeaways features two of these teams and one reliever struggling for the Nationals.
Three Takeaways
Hader’s home runs: While converting 13 of 14 save chances this year, Josh Hader has an impressive 1.87 SIERA versus his 3.82 ERA, with his best WHIP (1.01), K-BB percentage (32.7) and swinging strike rate (18.7 percent) since 2021. Statcast data shows he ranks in the 99th percentile in strikeout percentage and whiff rate. However, after yesterday’s outing, he’s given up six home runs versus his first 150 batters faced, one every 25 plate appearances. In 2019, he allowed 15 home runs against 289 hitters, one every 19.3 per plate appearance as a frame of reference. It’s not one pitch: he’s allowed three on his sinker, two against his slider, and one off of his change-up. Rather, he’s allowing a higher hard-hit percentage (40) and owns a .412 expected on-base average on contact (xwOBAcon). Beneath the batted ball data, 59.2 percent of his batted ball events are fly balls (36.8) and line drives (22.4), with an almost five percent increase in his pull percentage allowed. He will remain his team’s closer, but fantasy managers must plan on more home runs and some rocky rides in save situations.
Harvey’s rough patch: It’s tough to besmirch a reliever who ranks third in the majors with 23 holds, but Hunter Harvey’s recent outings have not gone well. He suffered the loss in Monday’s extra-inning contest against the Mets, allowing multiple earned runs for the second time in his last three appearances. Over his last 11 games since the start of June, he’s given up 17 hits, 14 runs (12 earned), and six walks while striking out 11 in 11 innings. This translates into a 2.09 WHIP, and he’s yielded a .354 batting average allowed with a 1.124 on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS). It’s not one pitch, either. His hard-hit rates since June are 52.2 hard-hit percent against his split-fingered fastball, 50 percent hard-hit rate versus his four-seam, 60 percent against his curve, and 50 percent versus his slider. Monitor his outcomes closely before the All-Star break; he may need an injured list stint for rest and a reset.
Mets riding out the storm: Operating a man down amid 17 games in 17 days, New York held on after scoring six runs in the top of the tenth for a two-run win. After this game, the team’s relievers rank 28th in Win Probability Added (WPA) in the majors, and its 54 meltdowns (a Fangraphs metric that measures if a reliever hurts his team’s chances of winning) are tied for the fourth most with Colorado. Running on fumes, here’s the recent usage patterns for the team since June 21:
If a save chance presents itself today, here are the advanced metrics for the Mets relievers in this time frame:
Also posted today is our June Month in Review featuring saves, holds, SOLDS, and leaderboards.
Next, our condensed recaps cover Monday’s high-leverage events of interest.
Closer CliffsNotes
Colorado Rockies – Benefiting from a walk-off rally, Tyler Kinley collected his fourth win. He navigated around a walk and two stolen bases with a fielder’s choice groundout erasing the “place” runner at home, followed by an inning-ending strikeout in a scoreless tenth inning.
Victor Vodnik fired a clean top of the ninth, preserving the tie while facing Milwaukee’s top of the lineup.
Justin Lawrence suffered his fourth blown save in the eighth. He let both inherited runners score, one on a sacrifice fly and one on an RBI single. He gave up two hits during his two-thirds inning.
Anthony Molina was credited with his first hold. After tossing a scoreless seventh, he ran into trouble in the eighth, allowing a triple followed by two singles before being removed. He finished with three earned runs, three hits, and a walk while striking out two over 1.1 innings.
Updated Hierarchy: Jalen Beeks | Victor Vodnik | Justin Lawrence
Houston Astros – Although he did not preserve the shutout, Josh Hader secured his 13th save, closing out a two-run win in Toronto. He allowed Ernie Clement’s solo home run and recorded one strikeout in the ninth. He ranks second among all American League relievers (60), but he’s allowed six home runs, including two in his last three appearances.
Bryan Abreu worked into, then out of trouble for a scoreless eighth and his 18th hold. He worked around a hit, a hit batter, and a walk while striking out one.
Rafael Montero retired the side on seven pitches in the seventh, notching his ninth hold.
Hierarchy remains: Josh Hader | Ryan Pressly | Bryan Abreu
Milwaukee Brewers – Tasked with a tied score in the bottom of the tenth, Joel Payamps induced a flyout that advanced the “place” runner to third. He then issued two intentional walks (Brenton Doyle and Nolan Jones), loading the bases with one out. However, Jake Cave produced an RBI walk-off single, handing Payamps his fifth loss.
Trevor Megill worked around a runner reaching on an error and a single for a scoreless ninth. He threw 15 pitches (11 strikes—73.3 Strike%) and recorded one whiff, extending his scoreless streak to eight games.
Elvis Peguero suffered his third blown save, allowing two hits, including Doyle’s game-tying solo home run in the eighth.
Hierarchy remains: Trevor Megill | Joel Payamps | Bryan Hudson
New York Mets – Pressed into action in the bottom of the tenth, Reed Garrett entered with two runners on, two outs, and a three-run lead. He allowed Keibert Ruiz’s RBI single and produced a game-ending strikeout for his fourth save. It was not pretty but still counts.
Tyler Jay gave up two hits, four runs (three earned), and two walks while striking out two in two-thirds of the tenth.
Jake Diekman collected his second win after retiring the side in the ninth ahead of his team’s six-run outburst in the top of the tenth.
Dedniel Núñez suffered his first blown save, allowing a game-tying RBI double in the bottom of the eighth. Núñez logged 1.2 innings, giving up a hit, an earned run, and a walk while striking out one.
Washington Nationals – Taking over in the top of the tenth, Hunter Harvey had a rough outing. During his two-thirds inning, he allowed three hits, including a three-run home run by J.D. Martinez, a hit batter, and five runs (four earned), resulting in his fourth loss. He’s allowed at least a run in three of his last four games and multiple runs in two.
Kyle Finnegan fired a clean ninth, recorded a strikeout on 13 pitches (9 strikes – 69.2 Strike%), and induced two whiffs (15.4 SwStr%).
Dylan Floro logged 1.1 scoreless innings, giving up a walk and striking out two.
Robert Garcia gave up a hit and struck out two in the seventh.
Derek Law suffered his third blown save, letting an inherited runner score while allowing two hits and two unearned runs in one-third of the sixth.
Ryan Pressly (HOU): Although Hader appears to have pitched only twice in the last three days, he warmed up to enter on Sunday but did not pitch because of a rain delay. He’s likely unavailable today, so I’m putting Pressly in line for the save chance.
Vulture Save Option for Wednesday, July 3
Enoli Paredes (MIL): If Megill pitches tonight, it will mark consecutive outings. Bryan Hudson has been terrific this season but usually gets the toughest lineup pocket in a set-up capacity, which may leave Paredes for the ninth in Wednesday’s match-up.
Closer Monkey’s nasty pitch of the day is Kyle Finnegan’s split-fingered fastball—video courtesy of the Pitching Ninja.
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As the sample sizes grow and teams pass the halfway point of the season, it helps break down performance in monthly splits. Using underlying metrics and hard statistical data, some intriguing names emerge in the June leaderboards with the Trade Deadline fast approaching.
League Saves
2024: 638 saves recorded through the end of June
2023: 636 saves recorded through the end of June
Blown Saves
2024: 367 blown saves recorded through the end of June
2023: 361 blown saves recorded through the end of June
Save Opportunites
2024: 1,005 save chances through the end of June
2023: 997 save chances through the end of June
It’s remarkable how closely aligned 2024 is with last season through the end of June. Taking this a step further, this chart illustrates the save distribution by relievers between the last two years:
There are slight nuances between the two seasons, though Ryan Helsley is the only reliever in this comparison, with 30 saves at the end of the month. He’s joined by Emmanuel Clase (25) as the only two with more than 24.
Relievers cannot control their team’s performance, only the save situations they receive. Those with Andrés Muñoz on their roster do not like seeing Ryne Stanek accrue four saves in June, but he’s pitching through lingering back issues. On the other hand, fantasy managers with Trevor Megill must make alternate plans after the All-Star break with the pending return by Devin Williams.
In leagues with holds as a separate category, some new names are noted on the list, like Ryan Fernandez (STL), Austin Voth (SEA), and Cionel Pérez (BAL). Injuries or expanded leverage roles create opportunities in this format.
For those in leagues with SOLDS (saves plus holds):
Shifting into some underlying metrics, these four relievers met the following criteria: a K-BB percentage greater than 20 percent, a swinging strike rate above 16 percent, a strike percentage over 66 percent, and a percent contact rate allowed below 66 percent in June:
Strikeouts and WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched) should also be monitored closely by fantasy managers. Here are the leaders in these categories for June:
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