Monkey Bytes: June 29

Full slate Fridays usually provide a bevy of high-leverage events. Last night did not disappoint, with seven relievers recording wins, including one after a blown save and a walk-off rally (Camilo Doval). Six saves were also recorded, including an MLB-leading 29th by Ryan Helsley. It will not be covered in our revamped Closer CliffsNotes, but Toronto’s bullpen struggled during an eventual lopsided loss against the Yankees in today’s three takeaways segment.

Three Takeaways

  • Toronto’s sinking: Although the team’s underwhelming offense draws most of the attention, the bullpen has also struggled. After last night’s loss, its relievers rank 27th in the majors in strikeout percentage (19.7), 28th in ERA (4.78), 28th in swinging strike rate (9.6 percent), and 28th in contact rate allowed (79.5 percent). Jordan Romano and Yimi García played catch yesterday, and one could be ready by the All-Star break, but the cavalry will not be arriving anytime soon. Erik Swanson has allowed 12 runs over his last three Triple-A appearances, and the team cannot get Chad Green into a save situation.
  • Camilo’s ratios: It’s been a tumultuous month for Camilo Doval. He’s converted five of seven save opportunities and logged 10 appearances with four clean, including three ending in a save. However, he’s also given up at least a run in three games, including two with four earned each. He’s allowed 12 hits, nine earned runs, and six walks through nine innings while striking out 10. His batting average on balls in play (.393) will not be sustainable, but he’s relying on his slider this month. If he gets behind in counts and has to throw his cutter or sinker, it’s not going well, illustrated by his splits-by-pitch in June versus his results last season:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/L7nO4/4/

  • Stock rising: Not much has gone right for the White Sox this season, but two of its best commodities for the trade deadline performed well last night. Michael Kopech secured his seventh save, and second in as many days, preserving a win over the Rockies. He’s looked much more confident in his last two outings. John Brebbia owns a 17:3 K: BB through 12.2 innings this month. Although neither reliever will move into preferred save shares, but they will help Chicago attain more prospect capital before July 30.

Speaking of the trade deadline, our second primer was posted yesterday. It includes playoff odds, rest-of-the-season strength of schedules, and relievers potentially on the trade block from two sources.

Our condensed game recaps cover Friday’s high-leverage events of interest.

Closer CliffsNotes

American League

Baltimore Orioles – Locking down his 18th save, Craig Kimbrel retired the side while striking out two against Texas. He threw 18 pitches (13 strikes – 72.2 Strike%) and induced one whiff. This marked his first save with a one-run margin of the season and moved him back into a tie for fifth all-time in saves (435).

  • Cionel Peréz secured his ninth hold, navigating around two walks and striking out one in a scoreless eighth.
  • Jacob Webb was awarded his eighth save despite letting one of three inherited runners score on an RBI walk. He recorded two outs and struck out one.
  • Yennier Cano gets credit for his 19th hold. He issued three walks, resulting in an earned run, and recorded a strikeout in one-third of the eighth.

Hierarchy remains: Craig Kimbrel | Yennier Cano | Cionel Pérez

Chicago White Sox – Recording a save in consecutive appearances, Michael Kopech worked around a lead-off walk by inducing a double-play groundout and a game-ending groundball, preserving a two-run win. This marked his seventh save of the season. He threw 13 pitches (7 strikes—53.8 Strike%) and induced two whiffs. He’s been scoreless in four of his last five outings.

  • John Brebbia notched his tenth hold, tossing a scoreless eighth, allowing a walk, and striking out two. He’s posted 19 strikeouts against three walks across 12.2 innings in June.
  • Tanner Banks gets credit for his fourth hold despite allowing a solo home run and recording three strikeouts in the seventh.

Hierarchy remains: Michael Kopech | John Brebbia | Tanner Banks

Detroit Tigers – With the score tied in the eighth, Shelby Miller allowed Logan O’Hoppe’s two-out, go-ahead three-run home run resulting in his sixth loss.

  • Andrew Chafin tossed two-thirds scoreless, giving up a hit and striking out two in the seventh.
  • Will Vest stranded a runner in the sixth and retired all three batters, two via strikeout, in a combined inning of work.

Hierarchy: Jason Foley | Tyler Holton | Shelby Miller

Los Angeles Angels – Capping a rally in the bottom of the eighth, Carlos Estévez nailed down his 16th save while retiring the side and preserving a three-run win over Detroit. He threw nine pitches (88.9 Strike%) without a whiff while converting his tenth straight save. He’s only allowed one hit over his last 10 innings with 10 strikeouts against zero walks.

  • Luis García collected his third win. He worked a clean eighth and benefited from his team’s three runs in the bottom of the inning.

Hierarchy remains: Carlos Estévez | Luis García | Matt Moore

Minnesota Twins – During a strange sequence, Cole Sands suffered his first loss in the bottom of the tenth. After the “place” runner moved up on a groundout, Cal Raleigh hit a dribbler between the mound and first, scoring the game-winning run.

  • Jhoan Durán navigated around two hits, though one was a bunt, for a scoreless ninth and recorded a strikeout. He threw 15 pitches (11 strikes – 73.3 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (20 SwStr%).
  • Griffin Jax was tagged with his third blown save. He allowed a lead-off walk and a single, followed by Julio Rodríguez reaching on a throwing error, which scored the go-ahead unearned run. He also issued an intentional walk before an inning-ending strikeout.
  • Jorge Alcala notched his seventh hold with a clean seventh and two strikeouts.

Hierarchy remains: Jhoan Durán | Griffin Jax | Jorge Alcala

New York Yankees – Inheriting three runners in the bottom of the fifth, Michael Tonkin stranded two. He let one score on an RBI hit-by-pitch (George Springer), retired a batter at home on a wild pitch, and induced an inning-ending strikeout. He collected his first win when his teammates scored six in the top of the sixth. Tonkin finished 1.2 innings, allowing a hit, an earned run, and striking out one.

  • Luke Weaver notched his tenth hold despite giving up two hits, including a solo home run (Vlad Guerrero Jr.) and recorded two strikeouts.
  • Tommy Kahnle worked a scoreless eighth, yielding a hit and striking out one.
  • Tim Hill finished the lopsided 11-run win with a scoreless ninth, allowing a hit.

Hierarchy remains: Clay Holmes | Luke Weaver | Michael Tonkin

Seattle Mariners – Benefiting from a walk-off rally, Ryne Stanek earned his fifth win after retiring the side in order in the top of the tenth against the Twins and stranding the “place” runner. He threw nine pitches (66.7 Strike%) and induced one whiff.

  • Andrés Muñoz tossed a clean ninth, throwing eight pitches (50 Strike%) without a whiff against the 4-5-6 lineup pocket.
  • Collin Snider worked a scoreless seventh, allowing a hit.
  • Austin Voth gave up a hit and struck out one in a scoreless seventh.

Hierarchy remains: *Andrés Muñoz (HLR/PSS) | Ryne Stanek | Trent Thornton

Tampa Bay Rays – With a two-run lead, Pete Fairbanks took over in the ninth against the Nationals’ 5-6-7 lineup pocket. He allowed a one-out walk but retired the next two batters and recorded his 13th save. He threw 22 pitches (13 strikes – 59.1 Strike%) and did not produce a whiff. He’s allowed a run in three of his 12 appearances this month and converted eight of nine save chances.

  • Jason Adam fired a clean eighth, striking out two for his 13th hold.
  • Kevin Kelly was awarded his eighth hold, giving up a hit and an unearned run while striking out one in the seventh.

Hierarchy remains: Pete Fairbanks | Jason Adam | Colin Poche

National League

Arizona Diamondbacks – After recording an out in the seventh with the score tied, Ryan Thompson returned for the eighth with a one-run lead and gave up a game-tying solo home run. He also issued a one-out walk, followed by an RBI triple and an RBI single. He finished his 1.1 innings with three hits allowed, three earned runs, and a walk while striking out one during his first loss. 

  • Justin Martinez logged 1.2 scoreless frames, allowing two hits and striking out four on 33 pitches (21 strikes – 63.6 Strike%) with four whiffs (12.1 SwStr%).
  • Kevin Ginkel worked a scoreless fifth, giving up a hit and striking out two.

Hierarchy remains: Paul Sewald | Ryan Thompson | Kevin Ginkel

Los Angeles Dodgers – Entering a tied game at the bottom of the ninth, Blake Treinen issued a lead-off walk followed by a walk-off, two-run home run (Brett Wisely), resulting in his second loss.

  • Ryan Yarbrough tossed two scoreless innings, giving up a hit and a walk.
  • Daniel Hudson suffered his fourth blown save. His outing began with Heliot Ramos reaching on an error and a one-out, go-ahead, two-run home run by Matt Chapman.

Hierarchy remains: Evan Phillips | Daniel Hudson | Alex Vesia

Milwaukee Brewers – Slamming the door on his 17th save, Trevor Megill retired the side against the Cubs’ 6-7-8 lineup pocket. He threw 11 pitches (81.8 Strike%) and induced one whiff. Through 13 appearances in June, he’s been scoreless in 12 and converted all nine save chances with 12 strikeouts versus four walks.

  • Jared Koenig stranded the bases-loaded in the seventh and logged 1.1 clean frames, recording three strikeouts for his fourth hold.
  • Elvis Peguero notched his eighth hold, giving up two hits and a walk while striking out two over 1.1 scoreless innings.

Hierarchy remains: Trevor Megill | Joel Payamps | Bryan Hudson

New York Mets – Taking over in the top of the sixth, Dedniel Núñez scattered three hits and allowed a walk while striking out one over two scoreless innings. He collected his second win courtesy of a four-run rally in the bottom of the inning.

  • Jake Diekman tossed a scoreless eighth, giving up a hit.
  • Reed Garrett finished the five-run win, navigating around two hits and striking out one in a scoreless ninth.

Hierarchy remains: *Reed Garrett | *Jake Diekman | Adam Ottavino

*= match-up-based approach

San Diego Padres Stephen Kolek collected his second win. He logged two scoreless frames, yielding a hit and striking out two. He benefited from his teammates scoring nine runs in the top of the fifth in Boston.

  • Finishing a seven-run win, Yuki Matsui tossed a scoreless bottom of the ninth, giving up a hit and striking out two.
  • Austin Davis made his season debut, working a scoreless eighth. He allowed a walk and recorded a strikeout.

Hierarchy remains: Robert Suarez | Jeremiah Estrada | Enyel De Los Santos

San Francisco Giants – With a one-run lead at the top of the ninth, Camilo Doval suffered his third blown save at the top of the ninth. He allowed a lead-off triple by Andy Pages and a sacrifice fly by Jason Heyward. He settled in and retired the next two batters, one via strikeout, and collected his third win courtesy of a walk-off rally in the bottom of the inning. He threw 12 pitches (66.7 Strike%) and induced two whiffs (16.7 SwStr%). Through 10 outings in June, he’s converted five of seven save opportunities this month but allowed at least a run in three contests with a 2.00 WHIP over nine innings.

  • Tyler Rogers secured his 14th hold, giving up a hit and striking out one in a scoreless eighth.

Hierarchy remains: Camilo Doval | Tyler Rogers | Ryan Walker

St. Louis Cardinals – Securing his 29th save, Ryan Helsley preserved a 1-0 shutout on a fly ball caught at the wall and two strikeouts. He’s converted a team-record 29 straight saves since April 1, the first streak of 29-plus saves in the majors since Josh Hader (32 between 2021 and 2022). He threw six pitches (83.3 Strike%) and produced one whiff (16.7 SwStr%).

  • Andrew Kittredge stranded a runner and retired his only batter via strikeout for his 23rd hold.
  • JoJo Romero recorded his MLB-leading 24th hold, issuing a walk during two-thirds scoreless in the eighth.
  • Ryan Fernandez stranded two runners in the sixth and fired 1.2 scoreless frames while striking out two for his seventh hold.

Hierarchy remains: Ryan Helsley | Andrew Kittredge | JoJo Romero

Vulture Save Options for Saturday, June 29

  • Justin Anderson (CHW): Kopech and Brebbia have appeared on consecutive days. Anderson owns a nine-game scoreless streak and should be in line for the vulture save against Colorado.
  • Ryan Walker (SFG): Doval has worked in three of the last four and could have an off day today.

Vulture Save Stashes for Sunday, June 30

  • Joel Payamps (MIL): If Megill pitches again today, he will get Sunday off.
  • Trent Thornton (SEA): If Muñoz and Stanek appear in today’s contest, both will be back-to-back outings.
  • Giovanny Gallegos (STL): This leverage ladder may be running on fumes, and if Helsley pitches again today, he will be down on Sunday.
  • Phil Maton (TBR): If Fairbanks and Adam pitch on Saturday, it will mark consecutive outings.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

Baseball-Reference.com

Statcast