Because game summaries cannot fully capture developing leverage situations, this column will focus on specific teams or relievers from a fantasy lens. Our initial post will delve into the lack of depth in Houston’s leverage ladder, how Minnesota was willing to use Jhoan Durán in a third straight game, and the downward spiral in the White Sox arm barn.
Houston, we have a problem
It’s been a rough road trip for the Astros, who suffered their second loss in as many days despite having the lead entering the eighth inning. Josh Hader did his part, tossing a scoreless bottom of the ninth to keep the game tied. After Houston tallied two runs in the top of the tenth, Rafael Montero was summoned for a third straight game for the save. As the introduction gives away, it did not end well.
There was a misplayed groundball by Jeremy Peña and Montero himself during the outing. Still, he allowed four hits and three runs (two earned) during his second loss. A lack of depth and, more importantly, trust in any reliever outside the high-leverage triumvirate (Hader, Ryan Pressly, Bryan Abreu) has caused fatigue. Rookie manager Joe Espada must learn on the fly how to manage his bullpen, but some curious usage patterns have created ripple effects in the last two losses.
Pressly and Shawn Dubin were warming up for the eighth inning with a lead on Saturday. Despite Houston growing its lead to five runs, Espada used Pressly in a non-save outing. He threw 25 pitches in a scoreless outing. On Sunday, with a two-run lead in the eighth, Pressly was summoned again but suffered his fifth blown save, allowing two hits, two earned runs, and a walk while recording two outs. There’s no guarantee his outing progresses differently, but if he was rested from not being used on Saturday, it creates a window of doubt.
Entering Monday’s contest, here’s the our workload chart for Houston:
Pressly’s blown save forced Hader into the eighth inning before he allowed a walk-off two-run home run by Logan O’Hoppe in the bottom of the ninth. As for Abreu, he leads all major league relievers in appearances (33) through the Astros’ first 67 games.
Taking this one step further, using the leverage index from Baseball-Reference for each reliever, this chart illustrates the frequency of use and how they are deployed. (0DR = zero days rest)
Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/QJSr6/1/
When comparing Hader, remember that his 2023 results were with San Diego, but Abreu’s already had one outing on zero days for 2024 compared with last year. This could result in an injury for the talented reliever. Hader’s already surpassed his multiple-inning outing threshold, though this resulted from his contact—Abreu’s also within one without reaching the season’s midpoint.
Whether one feels Pressly has underperformed or is disgruntled about not being the closer, can the triumvirate provide strong results moving forward without better workload management? Paying $19 million for a closer anchors a leverage ladder, but without depth in the bridge to him, it creates situations like this. Combine this with a rookie manager, and the Astros may enter the danger zone soon.
Minnesota leans into Durán
First, fantasy managers complained about how Rocco Baldelli deployed Jhoan Durán upon his activation from the injured list. Now, fantasy players hold their collective breath about his recent usage patterns. Entering game play on Monday, here’s Minnesota’s workload board for its relievers:
With a two-run lead in the eighth, Durán was warming for an appearance in a third straight contest. However, once his team tacked on three runs in the bottom of the frame, he was not needed but still prepared for entry, which does accumulate on a reliever’s arm and shoulder. He could record the save on Tuesday but should receive Wednesday off. This could be a result of the gap seen between June 2 and his first outing since on the eighth, but he’s working his way back into past form.
After starting the year heavy on four-seam fastball use, he turned in his best outing of the season with a clean ninth and two strikeouts during a win on June 9. He threw 15 pitches (60 Strike%) and induced one whiff using more split-fingered fastballs (“splinkers”), illustrated by his pitch percentage by game chart courtesy of Statcast:
For fantasy purposes, hopefully, this trend will continue. Here are his splits-by-pitch this season compared with last season:
Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/XUMFU/7/
Overshadowed by Durán, Griffin Jax has been terrific this year as well. He fired a clean eighth during Monday’s win, locking down his 12th hold by striking out the side on 15 pitches (11 strikes – 73.3 Strike%) and generating five whiffs (33.3 SwStr%). He’s been scoreless in 10 of his last 11 outings with 16 strikeouts against one walk (40.5 K-BB%) and a 24 percent swinging strike rate. Among all qualified relievers, he ranks tied for sixth in K-BB percentage (28.2), seventh in swinging strike rate (17.5 percent), and tied for eighth in SIERA (2.09). He may not be accruing save chances, but he’s been an elite ratio eraser with strikeout upside.
Kick Kopech to the curb?
It’s nothing personal, but how much more can fantasy players endure with Michael Kopech or any White Sox reliever? When determining which reliever may emerge in a struggling leverage ladder, Win Probability Added (WPA) helps identify which reliever pitches in high-leverage situations and if he’s doing well, may be worth stashing. As a team, the White Sox rank dead last in the majors with a combined negative 4.59, with Colorado being the closest team at negative 1.46 on the season in Win Probability Added per Fangraphs.
Using Baseball Reference, the White Sox have produced 29 save chances with a 38 percent conversion rate, the worst in the majors. Of the team’s 11 saves, six different relievers have recorded one. Although the team does rank tied for seventh in high-leverage appearances with Milwaukee at 78, it also sits tied for ninth in low-leverage appearances with Houston at 97.
As for Kopech, using SGPs (Standings Gain Points), a metric that operates like a player rater, he currently ranks 124 among his peers with a 4.64 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. He’s only throwing four-seam fastballs as a reliever, which rates as curious given his outcomes:
He’s produced a 19.6 K-BB percentage with the four-seam fastball. However, it also yields a paltry 11.1 swinging strike percentage and a .322 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA). When he struggles with his command like Monday night in Seattle, it provides a pitch illustrator like this one:
This next chart displays the results of his pitches during his third blown save:
He’s lucky the middle-middle four-seams were only singles. Combining his results and his last save on May 15, it may be best to leave this bullpen for another fantasy manager. Last but not least, he ranks last in WPA on the team with the lowest total in the majors:
Things could change, but the team must keep using him and John Brebbia in high-leverage events to build their trade value.
Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community. Until next time, stay safe and be well.
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