Tuesday’s Three Takeaways: Astros, Twins, and White Sox Reliever Notes

Because game summaries cannot fully capture developing leverage situations, this column will focus on specific teams or relievers from a fantasy lens. Our initial post will delve into the lack of depth in Houston’s leverage ladder, how Minnesota was willing to use Jhoan Durán in a third straight game, and the downward spiral in the White Sox arm barn.

Houston, we have a problem

It’s been a rough road trip for the Astros, who suffered their second loss in as many days despite having the lead entering the eighth inning. Josh Hader did his part, tossing a scoreless bottom of the ninth to keep the game tied. After Houston tallied two runs in the top of the tenth, Rafael Montero was summoned for a third straight game for the save. As the introduction gives away, it did not end well.

There was a misplayed groundball by Jeremy Peña and Montero himself during the outing. Still, he allowed four hits and three runs (two earned) during his second loss. A lack of depth and, more importantly, trust in any reliever outside the high-leverage triumvirate (Hader, Ryan Pressly, Bryan Abreu) has caused fatigue. Rookie manager Joe Espada must learn on the fly how to manage his bullpen, but some curious usage patterns have created ripple effects in the last two losses.

Pressly and Shawn Dubin were warming up for the eighth inning with a lead on Saturday. Despite Houston growing its lead to five runs, Espada used Pressly in a non-save outing. He threw 25 pitches in a scoreless outing. On Sunday, with a two-run lead in the eighth, Pressly was summoned again but suffered his fifth blown save, allowing two hits, two earned runs, and a walk while recording two outs. There’s no guarantee his outing progresses differently, but if he was rested from not being used on Saturday, it creates a window of doubt.

Entering Monday’s contest, here’s the our workload chart for Houston:

Pressly’s blown save forced Hader into the eighth inning before he allowed a walk-off two-run home run by Logan O’Hoppe in the bottom of the ninth. As for Abreu, he leads all major league relievers in appearances (33) through the Astros’ first 67 games.

Taking this one step further, using the leverage index from Baseball-Reference for each reliever, this chart illustrates the frequency of use and how they are deployed. (0DR = zero days rest)

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/QJSr6/1/

When comparing Hader, remember that his 2023 results were with San Diego, but Abreu’s already had one outing on zero days for 2024 compared with last year. This could result in an injury for the talented reliever. Hader’s already surpassed his multiple-inning outing threshold, though this resulted from his contact—Abreu’s also within one without reaching the season’s midpoint.

Whether one feels Pressly has underperformed or is disgruntled about not being the closer, can the triumvirate provide strong results moving forward without better workload management? Paying $19 million for a closer anchors a leverage ladder, but without depth in the bridge to him, it creates situations like this. Combine this with a rookie manager, and the Astros may enter the danger zone soon.

Minnesota leans into Durán

First, fantasy managers complained about how Rocco Baldelli deployed Jhoan Durán upon his activation from the injured list. Now, fantasy players hold their collective breath about his recent usage patterns. Entering game play on Monday, here’s Minnesota’s workload board for its relievers:

With a two-run lead in the eighth, Durán was warming for an appearance in a third straight contest. However, once his team tacked on three runs in the bottom of the frame, he was not needed but still prepared for entry, which does accumulate on a reliever’s arm and shoulder. He could record the save on Tuesday but should receive Wednesday off. This could be a result of the gap seen between June 2 and his first outing since on the eighth, but he’s working his way back into past form.

After starting the year heavy on four-seam fastball use, he turned in his best outing of the season with a clean ninth and two strikeouts during a win on June 9. He threw 15 pitches (60 Strike%) and induced one whiff using more split-fingered fastballs (“splinkers”), illustrated by his pitch percentage by game chart courtesy of Statcast:

For fantasy purposes, hopefully, this trend will continue. Here are his splits-by-pitch this season compared with last season:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/XUMFU/7/

Overshadowed by Durán, Griffin Jax has been terrific this year as well. He fired a clean eighth during Monday’s win, locking down his 12th hold by striking out the side on 15 pitches (11 strikes – 73.3 Strike%) and generating five whiffs (33.3 SwStr%). He’s been scoreless in 10 of his last 11 outings with 16 strikeouts against one walk (40.5 K-BB%) and a 24 percent swinging strike rate. Among all qualified relievers, he ranks tied for sixth in K-BB percentage (28.2), seventh in swinging strike rate (17.5 percent), and tied for eighth in SIERA (2.09). He may not be accruing save chances, but he’s been an elite ratio eraser with strikeout upside.

Kick Kopech to the curb?

It’s nothing personal, but how much more can fantasy players endure with Michael Kopech or any White Sox reliever? When determining which reliever may emerge in a struggling leverage ladder, Win Probability Added (WPA) helps identify which reliever pitches in high-leverage situations and if he’s doing well, may be worth stashing. As a team, the White Sox rank dead last in the majors with a combined negative 4.59, with Colorado being the closest team at negative 1.46 on the season in Win Probability Added per Fangraphs.

Using Baseball Reference, the White Sox have produced 29 save chances with a 38 percent conversion rate, the worst in the majors. Of the team’s 11 saves, six different relievers have recorded one. Although the team does rank tied for seventh in high-leverage appearances with Milwaukee at 78, it also sits tied for ninth in low-leverage appearances with Houston at 97.

As for Kopech, using SGPs (Standings Gain Points), a metric that operates like a player rater, he currently ranks 124 among his peers with a 4.64 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. He’s only throwing four-seam fastballs as a reliever, which rates as curious given his outcomes:

He’s produced a 19.6 K-BB percentage with the four-seam fastball. However, it also yields a paltry 11.1 swinging strike percentage and a .322 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA). When he struggles with his command like Monday night in Seattle, it provides a pitch illustrator like this one:

This next chart displays the results of his pitches during his third blown save:

He’s lucky the middle-middle four-seams were only singles. Combining his results and his last save on May 15, it may be best to leave this bullpen for another fantasy manager. Last but not least, he ranks last in WPA on the team with the lowest total in the majors:

Things could change, but the team must keep using him and John Brebbia in high-leverage events to build their trade value.

Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community. Until next time, stay safe and be well.

Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

Baseball-Reference.com

Statcast

Monkey Bytes; June 11

Although Monday only provided a seven-game slate, relievers recorded three wins, including a walk-off in Seattle and three saves. Michael Kopech has not recorded a save since May 15 and his grip on the closer role for the White Sox may be in jeopardy. Minnesota warmed up Jhoan Durán for a potential save, but his services were not needed when they tacked on three runs. Houston’s bullpen had another meltdown, this one by Rafael Montero in the bottom of the tenth, providing San Francisco with a walk-off victory.

Edwin Díaz will be activated on Thursday, per his manager, according to this report by SNY.tv. He threw a bullpen today and will be ready for high-leverage situations upon his return.

Our condensed and full game recaps cover Monday’s high-leverage events of interest.

Closer CliffsNotes

American League

(RP | BAL): Shutting the door on his 15th save, Craig Kimbrel navigated around a lead-off walk with two strikeouts and a game-ending pop-out preserving a four-game sweep in Tampa Bay. 

(RP | CHW): After stranding the bases loaded in the eighth with an inning-ending groundout. Jordan Leasure allowed two walks, a single, and a walk-off grand slam in the bottom of the ninth, resulting in his second loss. 

(RP | HOU): Entering the bottom of the tenth with a two-run lead, Rafael Montero could not close out the win, giving up four hits and three runs (one earned). During his one-third of the tenth, he suffered his second loss and a third blown save.

(RP | KCR): Making his first MLB appearance since 2021, Dan Altavilla fired a clean top of the eighth and recorded two strikeouts. He threw 12 pitches (75 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (25 SwStr%).

Hierarchy remains: James McArthur | John Schreiber | Nick Anderson

(RP | MIN): Maintaining a 2-0 shutout in the top of the eighth, Griffin Jax secured his 11th hold. He only needed 15 pitches while striking out the side and generating five whiffs (33.3 SwStr%). 

(RP | NYY): Taking over in the ninth, Michael Tonkin recorded his first save and the second of his career. He preserved a two-run win over the Royals with a scoreless ninth, issuing a walk and striking out two. 

(RP | SEA): Ryne Stanek, benefiting from a walk-off rally, collected his fourth win. He worked a scoreless top of the ninth, navigating around two hits and recording an inning-ending strikeout against Luis Robert Jr. 

National League

(RP | MIL): Reaching double digits in saves for the first time of his career, Trevor Megill worked around a two-out single with a game-ending groundout by Vlad Guerrero Jr., closing out a two-run win with a scoreless ninth. 

(RP | SDP): Making his first appearance in nine days, Robert Suarez wrapped up a five-run victory by striking out the side against Oakland’s 1-2-3 lineup pocket. 

(RP | SFG): With two runners on and two outs, Randy Rodríguez took over in the top of the tenth, inducing an inning-ending groundout by Jeremy Peña. Rodríguez earned his second win courtesy of a walk-off rally in the bottom of the frame. 

Vulture Save Option for Tuesday, June 11

  • Bryan Abreu (HOU): Hader has appeared in two straight games, and with the team on a two-game losing streak, rookie manager Joe Espada may be desperate for a win. If so, he should use his best option among his available relievers for a save chance in San Francisco. He could, however, opt for Ryan Pressly based on past usage patterns.
  • John Brebbia (CHW): Kopech threw 28 pitches during a blown save chance in the eighth on Monday, and Leasure suffered a walk-off loss, throwing 23 pitches. This leaves Brebbia atop the hierarchy of available relievers in Seattle, though wins remain fleeting for the White Sox.
  • Tyler Rogers (SFG): Doval has pitched in three of the last four but could still work tonight. If he’s off, it will be Rogers either today or tomorrow, so he would be in line for whichever day Doval receives rest.

Vulture Save Option for Wednesday, June 12

  • Danny Coulombe (BAL): If Kimbrel pitches tonight, it will be two in a row. The only caveat is that the Orioles play match-ups when he’s not available.
  • Elvis Peguero (MIL): If Megill pitches on Tuesday, it will be consecutive outings and three in the last four.
  • Griffin Jax (MIN): If Jhoan Durán receives the save chance later, he will have pitched in three of the last four. He also warmed up last night, so he should be unavailable on Wednesday.

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American League – Full Recaps

Baltimore Orioles – With a three-run lead in the ninth, Craig Kimbrel recorded his 15th save. He worked around a lead-off walk with two strikeouts and a game-ending pop-out. He threw 20 pitches (45 Strike%) and induced one whiff. He’s allowed one unearned run over his last 11 appearances, spanning 10 innings, with 12 strikeouts against one walk and a 0.30 WHIP. Yennier Cano nailed down his 16th hold with a scoreless eighth, issuing a walk and striking out two. He owns an eight-game scoreless streak with five holds and eight strikeouts versus four walks over 7.1 innings.

Hierarchy remains: Craig Kimbrel | Yennier Cano | Danny Coulombe

Chicago White Sox – Cutting his teeth during high-leverage events as a rookie, Jordan Leasure suffered his second loss. He retired his only batter faced in the eighth, keeping the game tied. However, in the ninth, he issued two one-out walks, allowed a single by Julio Rodriguez to load the bases, and served up a walk-off grand slam by Cal Raleigh. Michael Kopech took over in the eighth and was tagged with his third blown save. He gave up four hits, three earned runs, a hit batter, and a walk while striking out two during his two-thirds innings. He threw 28 pitches (16 strikes – 57.1 Strike%) and produced five whiffs (17.9 SwStr%). He’s allowed at least a run in four of his last six outings.

It’s been a rough stretch for this leverage ladder. One would suggest a pending change in the hierarchy, but it’s slim pickings. Plan on John Brebbia receiving a save chance in the near future.

Hierarchy remains: Michael Kopech | John Brebbia | Jordan Leasure

Houston Astros -Forced into an appearance for a third straight day, Rafael Montero suffered his second loss and a third blown save, allowing four hits and three runs (one earned) over one-third of the tenth inning. His defense did him no favors in this outing, which ended with a walk-off RBI single by Austin Slater. Josh Hader tossed a scoreless ninth, giving up a hit while throwing 10 pitches (60 Strike%) without a whiff. Tayler Scott logged two scoreless frames, issuing a walk and striking out one. Seth Martinez stranded a runner and retired his only batter in the sixth. This marks a second straight game the Astros lost despite leading by more than one run in the eighth inning or later.

Hierarchy remains: Josh Hader | Ryan Pressly | Bryan Abreu

Minnesota Twins – In ascending order of appearance, Steven Okert secured his fourth hold, retiring both batters in the top of the seventh. Griffin Jax fired a clean eighth, locking down his 12th hold by striking out the side on 15 pitches (11 strikes – 73.3 Strike%) and generating five whiffs (33.3 SwStr%). He’s been scoreless in 10 of his last 11 outings with 16 strikeouts against one walk (40.5 K-BB%) and a 24 percent swinging strike rate. Jhoan Durán warmed for the save chance, which would have been his third straight appearance, but sat down after a Royce Lewis extended the lead to five. Diego Castillo tossed a scoreless ninth, preserving the shutout in a non-save capacity.

Hierarchy remains: Jhoan Durán | Griffin Jax | Caleb Thielbar

New York Yankees – Facing the 4-5-6 lineup pocket, Michael Tonkin recorded his first save and second of his career, working a scoreless bottom of the ninth in Kansas City. He issued a walk and recorded two strikeouts, including a game-ending one against MJ Melendez. He threw 17 pitches (11 strikes – 64.7 Strike%) and produced two whiffs. He owns a modest seven-game scoreless streak with 10 strikeouts against two walks through 10 innings. Ian Hamilton operated as the HLR, facing Bobby Witt Jr.’s lineup pocket, though he allowed an RBI double by him. Hamilton finished his ninth hold, giving up two hits and an earned run while striking out three on 20 pitches (55 Strike%) with five whiffs (25 SwStr%).

Updated Hierarchy: Clay Holmes | Luke Weaver | Ian Hamilton

Seattle Mariners – After tossing a scoreless top of the ninth, Ryne Stanek collected his fourth win courtesy of a walk-off grand slam. He navigated around two hits with an inning-ending strikeout of Luis Robert Jr. Stanek threw 23 pitches (16 strikes – 69.6 Strike%) and generated eight whiffs (34.8 SwStr%). Kirby Snead stranded a runner despite issuing two walks during his two-thirds of the eighth. He’s recorded two wins, converted two of three save chances, and two holds over his last seven appearances. Matt Bowman stranded a runner in the seventh, allowed a solo home run by Corey Julks in the eighth, and issued a walk during his two-thirds combined innings. 

Hierarchy remains: Andrés Muñoz | Ryne Stanek | Tayler Saucedo

National League – Full Recaps

Milwaukee Brewers – Securing his 10th save, and preserving a two-run win, Trevor Megill navigated around a two-out single with a game-ending groundout by Vlad Guerrero Jr. Megill threw 11 pitches (8 strikes – 72.7 Strike%) without a whiff. He’s been scoreless in six of his last seven games, converting all four save chances with 10 strikeouts versus one walk. Joel Payamps retired the side in the eighth and recorded a strikeout for his eighth hold. He’s turned in a clean appearance in four of his five outings this month.

Hierarchy remains: Trevor Megill | Elvis Peguero | Bryan Hudson

San Diego Padres – Displaying no signs of rust, Robert Suarez finished a five-run win over Oakland with a clean top of the ninth while striking out the side. He threw 15 pitches (80 Strike%) and produced four whiffs (26.7 SwStr%). This marks his first appearance since June 1, extending his modest scoreless streak to four games. Enyel De Los Santos worked a scoreless eighth, issuing a walk and striking out two. Jeremiah Estrada stranded a runner and retired his only batter faced (J.D. Davis) via strikeout for his fifth hold. Adrian Morejon recorded two outs and gave up a walk while striking out two for his second hold in the seventh.

Hierarchy remains: Robert Suarez | Jeremiah Estrada | Yuki Matsui

San Francisco Giants – Summoned in the top of the tenth, Randy Rodríguez induced an inning-ending groundout by Jeremy Peña, stranding two runners. He collected his second win courtesy of a walk-off rally in the bottom of the frame. Erik Miller allowed three and two runs (one earned) over two-thirds of the tenth. Camilo Doval navigated around a one-out walk and a two-out single for a scoreless ninth, recording three strikeouts. He threw 19 pitches (11 strikes – 57.9 Strike%) and generated seven whiffs (36.8 SwStr%) versus the heart of the Astros lineup. He’s been scoreless in five of his last six but owns a 1.93 WHIP over these 5.2 innings. Ryan Walker tossed a scoreless eighth, yielding a hit. Sean Hjelle stranded a runner and recorded two outs in the seventh.

Hierarchy remains: Camilo Doval | Tyler Rogers | Ryan Walker

Closer Monkey’s filthy pitch of the day goes to this changeup by Griffin Jax, video courtesy of the Pitching Ninja.

Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community. Stay safe and be well.

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