Monkey Bytes: June 30

Although Saturday only yielded five saves, there were high-leverage events of interest throughout the slate. Atlanta and the Angels both recorded walk-off wins in extra-innings. The Dodgers scored seven runs in the top of the 11th during their eventual win. Relievers secured seven wins in the 15-game slate, and with July on the horizon, bullpens take on a larger role.

Working shorthanded, the Mets face a dilemma until Edwin Díaz can return on July 6. This headlines our three takeaways from yesterday’s action.

Three Takeaways

  • Mets leverage needs: The timing of Díaz’s suspension could not have been worse. New York’s in the middle of 18 straight games until the All-Star break and suffered a loss in Saturday’s game despite leading by five runs after three innings. A combination of starting pitchers not working deep into games combined with running the bullpen a reliever short makes this stretch more difficult. Four walks in the eighth inning were the culprit in the loss against Houston, which can signify fatigue. In this column by Anthony DiComo for MLB.com, John Stearns acknowledges the team needs bullpen help ahead of the trade deadline, but it may be required sooner rather than later:
  • Holmes continues to scuffle: His team’s losses in ten of its last 13 games make a rough patch by its closer more difficult for fantasy managers. During his first outing since June 23, Clay Holmes allowed a two-out double by Isiah Kiner-Falefa and an RBI single by Vlad Guerrero Jr. before producing an inning-ending strikeout. He last recorded a save on June 9 and has allowed at least a run in four of his last five appearances. Through 10 appearances in June, he’s suffered two losses while converting three of four save chances with a 1.45 WHIP. His .364 batting average on balls in play (BAbip) sits 66 points over his career rate, so better days lie ahead evidenced by his 2.74 SIERA versus his 5.59 ERA this month, though some positive outings would help his fantasy managers.
  • Miami’s saves after Scott?: It’s no secret the Marlins will be trading pending free agent Tanner Scott. Who replaces him in save situations remains open for debate. A.J. Puk has produced 13 strikeouts against two walks (20.8 K-BB%) with a 0.86 WHIP in 14 innings this month while recording three holds. Calvin Faucher currently leads the team with four holds in June, but has been inconsistent in leverage situations. His 11:5 K:BB (16.2 K-BB%) and 1.44 WHIP illustrate his volatility but he’s been deployed in the eighth inning over his last four appearances. Andrew Nardi struggled early this year, but has surged in recent outings producing 11 strikeouts against zero walks (26.2 K-BB%) this month with three holds in 12 games spanning 10 innings. Fantasy managers must monitor how the team uses these relievers, with the trade deadline only a month away.

Our condensed game recaps cover Saturday’s high-leverage events of interest.

Closer CliffsNotes

American League

Baltimore Orioles – Hanging on for his 19th save and second while preserving a one-run lead, Craig Kimbrel navigated around two walks for a scoreless ninth with a game-ending pop-out by Adolis García. Kimbrel threw 22 pitches (50 Strike%) and induced three whiffs (13.6 SwStr%). He’s been scoreless in eight of his last nine appearances, converting six of seven save opportunities while striking out 13 against five walks across nine innings. This save also moved him ahead of Kenley Jansen for fifth all-time in saves (436).

  • Cionel Pérez stranded a runner and gave up a hit in one-third of the eighth for his tenth hold.
  • Jacob Webb allowed a solo home run (García) and walked one over two-thirds of the eighth, getting credit for his ninth hold.
  • Yennier Cano fired a clean seventh and struck out one for his 20th hold.

Hierarchy remains: Craig Kimbrel | Yennier Cano | Cionel Pérez

Chicago White Sox – Tanner Banks was awarded his second win. He logged 1.1 innings, allowing a hit and a walk while striking out one.

  • Steven Wilson stranded a runner and worked a scoreless eighth, striking out two for his eighth hold.
  • Finishing an eight-run win, Justin Anderson fired a clean top of the ninth and recorded a strikeout. It would have been a save chance until his teammates tacked on six runs in the bottom of the eighth. He’s been scoreless over his last nine appearances.

Hierarchy remains: Michael Kopech | John Brebbia | Tanner Banks

Detroit Tigers – After working a clean bottom of the ninth with the game tied, Jason Foley returned for the tenth, inducing a sacrifice bunt and allowing a walk-off RBI single by Kevin Pillar, resulting in his second loss. He finished 1.1 innings, allowing an unearned run on a hit, striking out one on 13 pitches (8 strikes – 61.5 Strike%), and induced one whiff.

  • Will Vest suffered his fourth blown save, giving up Logan O’Hoppe’s game-tying solo home run in the eighth.
  • Tyler Holton stranded a runner and retired his only batter in the seventh for his fight hold.
  • Beau Brieske was credited with his second hold. He gave up two hits, two earned runs, and a walk during his two-thirds of the seventh.

Hierarchy remains: Jason Foley | Tyler Holton | Shelby Miller

Houston Astros – Shutting the door on his 12th save, Josh Hader fired a clean bottom of the ninth and recorded two strikeouts during a three-run win over the Mets. He threw 15 pitches (66.7 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (20 SwStr%). Through 11 outings in June, he’s converted all five save chances but allowed at least a run in three contests.

  • Ryan Pressly secured his 12th hold, allowing a hit and striking out one in a scoreless eighth.
  • Seth Martinez collected his third win, retiring the side and striking out one in the seventh, ahead of his team’s three-run rally in the top of the eighth.

Hierarchy remains: Josh Hader | Ryan Pressly | Bryan Abreu

Los Angeles Angels – Following a clean top of the tenth, Ben Joyce collected his first win when his team produced a walk-off rally in the bottom of the frame. He retired the Tigers’ 3-4-5 lineup pocket in order and recorded a strikeout while throwing 14 pitches (71.4 Strike%) with two whiffs (14.3 SwStr%).

  • Carlos Estévez kept the game tied with a scoreless ninth, allowing a one-out single and getting an inning-ending caught stealing. He’s logged ten scoreless appearances in June while converting eight saves with ten strikeouts and a minuscule 0.20 WHIP.
  • Carson Fulmer tossed a scoreless eighth, walking one and striking out one.
  • Hans Crouse retired the side in the seventh and recorded two strikeouts.

Hierarchy remains: Carlos Estévez | Luis García | Matt Moore

National League

Arizona Diamondbacks – Securing his 11th save, Paul Sewald fired a clean top of the ninth and recorded a strikeout while preserving a combined shutout. He threw 10 pitches (80 Strike%) and induced one whiff. He’s converted each of his 11 save opportunities this season and owns a 16-game scoreless streak with 12 strikeouts against three walks.

  • Kevin Ginkel logged two scoreless frames, giving up a hit and striking out two. He’s been scoreless in 11 of 12 outings this month and collected four wins.

Hierarchy remains: Paul Sewald | Ryan Thompson | Kevin Ginkel

Atlanta Braves – After retiring the side in the top of the tenth, Daysbel Hernández collected his second win courtesy of a walk-off in the bottom of the inning.

  • Raisel Iglesias navigated around a two-out triple by Bryan Reynolds with an intentional walk and an inning-ending groundout, keeping the game tied. He threw 19 pitches (11 strikes – 57.9 Strike%) and produced three whiffs.
  • Joe Jiménez worked around two one-out walks for a scoreless eighth and recorded a strikeout.
  • Pierce Johnson fired a clean seventh, striking out two.

Hierarchy remains: Raisel Iglesias | Joe Jiménez | Pierce Johnson

Chicago Cubs – Another white-knuckle ride with Hector Neris during a save appearance. He navigated around a lead-off single and a one-out walk with consecutive strikeouts, preserving a two-run win in Milwaukee. He threw 28 pitches (16 strikes – 57.1 Strike%) and induced two whiffs. This marked his first save since June 12 and the 100th of his career. After this outing, he has a modest three-game scoreless streak.

  • Porter Hodge notched his first hold, tossing a scoreless eighth, allowing a one-out single by Christian Yelich.
  • Luke Little collected his third win, giving up two hits and striking out one in a scoreless seventh ahead of his team’s two-run rally in the top of the eighth.

Hierarchy remains: Héctor Neris | Tyson Miller | Porter Hodge

Los Angeles Dodgers – Protecting a seven-run lead, Ryan Yarbrough tossed a scoreless bottom of the 11th.

  • Daniel Hudson suffered his fifth blown save and collected his fifth win. He allowed an RBI double by David Villar in the bottom of the tenth, tying the game, then escaped further damage with the bases loaded with a strikeout and a pop-out, ending the inning.
  • Evan Phillips tossed a scoreless ninth, walking one and striking out one on 16 pitches (9 strikes – 56.3 Strike%) with one whiff. This outing extended his scoreless streak to nine games.
  • Blake Treinen fired a clean eighth, striking out one.
  • Alex Vesia was tagged with his second blown save, letting his only inherited runner score on a Brett Wisely single during his combined inning.

Hierarchy remains: Evan Phillips | Daniel Hudson | Alex Vesia

Miami Marlins – Nailing down his 12th save, Tanner Scott fired a clean bottom of the ninth and recorded two strikeouts, preserving a one-run win in Philadelphia. He threw 12 pitches (66.7 Strike%) and induced two whiffs (16.7 SwStr%). He’s converted a save in four straight outings and been scoreless in 11 of 12 this month with 15 strikeouts against five walks across 13 innings.

  • Calvin Faucher retired the side in the eighth and recorded two strikeouts versus the 3-4-5 lineup pocket for his eighth hold.
  • A.J. Puk worked a scoreless seventh and issued a walk during his third hold.
  • Andrew Nardi collected his first win, tossing 1.1 clean frames and striking out two.

Hierarchy remains: Tanner Scott | Calvin Faucher | A.J. Puk

Milwaukee Brewers – With the score tied in the top of the eighth, Joel Payamps suffered his fourth loss. He issued a lead-off walk and gave up Ian Happ’s go-ahead two-run home run before recording an out. During his one-third of the eighth, Payamps finished with a hit against, two earned runs, and three walks.

  • Enoli Paredes logged 1.2 scoreless frames, walking one and striking out one.
  • Bryan Hudson fired a clean seventh and recorded two strikeouts. He remains scoreless through eight appearances in June, with 14 strikeouts against one walk across 12 innings. 

Hierarchy remains: Trevor Megill | Joel Payamps | Bryan Hudson

New York Mets – With two runners on and two outs, Reed Garrett took over in the eighth. He threw a wild pitch that scored a runner, issued a walk, and gave up a go-ahead, two-RBI single by Alex Bregman, resulting in his third loss and third blown save. He did not retire a batter while giving up a hit, an earned run, and two walks.

  • Jake Diekman took over in the eighth and struggled with his command. He issued two walks, which resulted in two earned runs, and recorded a strikeout during two-thirds of the inning for his seventh hold.
  • Ty Adcock logged 1.2 scoreless innings, allowing a hit and striking out one for his first hold.

Hierarchy remains: *Reed Garrett | *Jake Diekman | Adam Ottavino

*= match-up-based approach

San Francisco Giants – Things went off the rails in the top of the 11th. Sean Hjelle issued an intentional walk (Shohei Ohtani) before the Dodgers recorded five straight hits, three for extra bases, resulting in Hjelle’s second loss. He finished with six hits allowed, eight runs (six earned), and a walk while striking out one over two innings.

  • Camilo Doval navigated around a hit and a walk for a scoreless ninth, recording three strikeouts. He threw 18 pitches (11 strikes – 61.1 Strike%) and generated five whiffs (27.8 SwStr%).
  • Ryan Walker logged 1.2 scoreless frames, yielding a hit and striking out three.

Hierarchy remains: Camilo Doval | Tyler Rogers | Ryan Walker

Vulture Save Options for Sunday, June 30

  • Luis García (LAA): With Estévez appearing in back-to-back games, García should be atop the hierarchy in today’s contest, looking for a sweep.
  • Dedniel Núñez (NYM): Although he logged two innings on Friday, the rookie could be in line for the save today with Garrett and Diekman working the two previous contests.
  • Tyler Rogers (SFG): Doval has pitched in two straight and four of the last five.
  • Dillon Tate (BAL): He may be the last man standing in the bullpen. Kimbrel, Cano, and Pérez have all pitched on consecutive days leaving this leverage ladder thin in today’s game against Texas.

Vulture Save Stash for Monday, July 1

  • Bryan Abreu (HOU): If Hader pitches today, it will be two straight, and he will get Monday off.

Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community. Stay safe and be well.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

Baseball-Reference.com

Statcast

Monkey Bytes: June 29

Full slate Fridays usually provide a bevy of high-leverage events. Last night did not disappoint, with seven relievers recording wins, including one after a blown save and a walk-off rally (Camilo Doval). Six saves were also recorded, including an MLB-leading 29th by Ryan Helsley. It will not be covered in our revamped Closer CliffsNotes, but Toronto’s bullpen struggled during an eventual lopsided loss against the Yankees in today’s three takeaways segment.

Three Takeaways

  • Toronto’s sinking: Although the team’s underwhelming offense draws most of the attention, the bullpen has also struggled. After last night’s loss, its relievers rank 27th in the majors in strikeout percentage (19.7), 28th in ERA (4.78), 28th in swinging strike rate (9.6 percent), and 28th in contact rate allowed (79.5 percent). Jordan Romano and Yimi García played catch yesterday, and one could be ready by the All-Star break, but the cavalry will not be arriving anytime soon. Erik Swanson has allowed 12 runs over his last three Triple-A appearances, and the team cannot get Chad Green into a save situation.
  • Camilo’s ratios: It’s been a tumultuous month for Camilo Doval. He’s converted five of seven save opportunities and logged 10 appearances with four clean, including three ending in a save. However, he’s also given up at least a run in three games, including two with four earned each. He’s allowed 12 hits, nine earned runs, and six walks through nine innings while striking out 10. His batting average on balls in play (.393) will not be sustainable, but he’s relying on his slider this month. If he gets behind in counts and has to throw his cutter or sinker, it’s not going well, illustrated by his splits-by-pitch in June versus his results last season:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/L7nO4/4/

  • Stock rising: Not much has gone right for the White Sox this season, but two of its best commodities for the trade deadline performed well last night. Michael Kopech secured his seventh save, and second in as many days, preserving a win over the Rockies. He’s looked much more confident in his last two outings. John Brebbia owns a 17:3 K: BB through 12.2 innings this month. Although neither reliever will move into preferred save shares, but they will help Chicago attain more prospect capital before July 30.

Speaking of the trade deadline, our second primer was posted yesterday. It includes playoff odds, rest-of-the-season strength of schedules, and relievers potentially on the trade block from two sources.

Our condensed game recaps cover Friday’s high-leverage events of interest.

Closer CliffsNotes

American League

Baltimore Orioles – Locking down his 18th save, Craig Kimbrel retired the side while striking out two against Texas. He threw 18 pitches (13 strikes – 72.2 Strike%) and induced one whiff. This marked his first save with a one-run margin of the season and moved him back into a tie for fifth all-time in saves (435).

  • Cionel Peréz secured his ninth hold, navigating around two walks and striking out one in a scoreless eighth.
  • Jacob Webb was awarded his eighth save despite letting one of three inherited runners score on an RBI walk. He recorded two outs and struck out one.
  • Yennier Cano gets credit for his 19th hold. He issued three walks, resulting in an earned run, and recorded a strikeout in one-third of the eighth.

Hierarchy remains: Craig Kimbrel | Yennier Cano | Cionel Pérez

Chicago White Sox – Recording a save in consecutive appearances, Michael Kopech worked around a lead-off walk by inducing a double-play groundout and a game-ending groundball, preserving a two-run win. This marked his seventh save of the season. He threw 13 pitches (7 strikes—53.8 Strike%) and induced two whiffs. He’s been scoreless in four of his last five outings.

  • John Brebbia notched his tenth hold, tossing a scoreless eighth, allowing a walk, and striking out two. He’s posted 19 strikeouts against three walks across 12.2 innings in June.
  • Tanner Banks gets credit for his fourth hold despite allowing a solo home run and recording three strikeouts in the seventh.

Hierarchy remains: Michael Kopech | John Brebbia | Tanner Banks

Detroit Tigers – With the score tied in the eighth, Shelby Miller allowed Logan O’Hoppe’s two-out, go-ahead three-run home run resulting in his sixth loss.

  • Andrew Chafin tossed two-thirds scoreless, giving up a hit and striking out two in the seventh.
  • Will Vest stranded a runner in the sixth and retired all three batters, two via strikeout, in a combined inning of work.

Hierarchy: Jason Foley | Tyler Holton | Shelby Miller

Los Angeles Angels – Capping a rally in the bottom of the eighth, Carlos Estévez nailed down his 16th save while retiring the side and preserving a three-run win over Detroit. He threw nine pitches (88.9 Strike%) without a whiff while converting his tenth straight save. He’s only allowed one hit over his last 10 innings with 10 strikeouts against zero walks.

  • Luis García collected his third win. He worked a clean eighth and benefited from his team’s three runs in the bottom of the inning.

Hierarchy remains: Carlos Estévez | Luis García | Matt Moore

Minnesota Twins – During a strange sequence, Cole Sands suffered his first loss in the bottom of the tenth. After the “place” runner moved up on a groundout, Cal Raleigh hit a dribbler between the mound and first, scoring the game-winning run.

  • Jhoan Durán navigated around two hits, though one was a bunt, for a scoreless ninth and recorded a strikeout. He threw 15 pitches (11 strikes – 73.3 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (20 SwStr%).
  • Griffin Jax was tagged with his third blown save. He allowed a lead-off walk and a single, followed by Julio Rodríguez reaching on a throwing error, which scored the go-ahead unearned run. He also issued an intentional walk before an inning-ending strikeout.
  • Jorge Alcala notched his seventh hold with a clean seventh and two strikeouts.

Hierarchy remains: Jhoan Durán | Griffin Jax | Jorge Alcala

New York Yankees – Inheriting three runners in the bottom of the fifth, Michael Tonkin stranded two. He let one score on an RBI hit-by-pitch (George Springer), retired a batter at home on a wild pitch, and induced an inning-ending strikeout. He collected his first win when his teammates scored six in the top of the sixth. Tonkin finished 1.2 innings, allowing a hit, an earned run, and striking out one.

  • Luke Weaver notched his tenth hold despite giving up two hits, including a solo home run (Vlad Guerrero Jr.) and recorded two strikeouts.
  • Tommy Kahnle worked a scoreless eighth, yielding a hit and striking out one.
  • Tim Hill finished the lopsided 11-run win with a scoreless ninth, allowing a hit.

Hierarchy remains: Clay Holmes | Luke Weaver | Michael Tonkin

Seattle Mariners – Benefiting from a walk-off rally, Ryne Stanek earned his fifth win after retiring the side in order in the top of the tenth against the Twins and stranding the “place” runner. He threw nine pitches (66.7 Strike%) and induced one whiff.

  • Andrés Muñoz tossed a clean ninth, throwing eight pitches (50 Strike%) without a whiff against the 4-5-6 lineup pocket.
  • Collin Snider worked a scoreless seventh, allowing a hit.
  • Austin Voth gave up a hit and struck out one in a scoreless seventh.

Hierarchy remains: *Andrés Muñoz (HLR/PSS) | Ryne Stanek | Trent Thornton

Tampa Bay Rays – With a two-run lead, Pete Fairbanks took over in the ninth against the Nationals’ 5-6-7 lineup pocket. He allowed a one-out walk but retired the next two batters and recorded his 13th save. He threw 22 pitches (13 strikes – 59.1 Strike%) and did not produce a whiff. He’s allowed a run in three of his 12 appearances this month and converted eight of nine save chances.

  • Jason Adam fired a clean eighth, striking out two for his 13th hold.
  • Kevin Kelly was awarded his eighth hold, giving up a hit and an unearned run while striking out one in the seventh.

Hierarchy remains: Pete Fairbanks | Jason Adam | Colin Poche

National League

Arizona Diamondbacks – After recording an out in the seventh with the score tied, Ryan Thompson returned for the eighth with a one-run lead and gave up a game-tying solo home run. He also issued a one-out walk, followed by an RBI triple and an RBI single. He finished his 1.1 innings with three hits allowed, three earned runs, and a walk while striking out one during his first loss. 

  • Justin Martinez logged 1.2 scoreless frames, allowing two hits and striking out four on 33 pitches (21 strikes – 63.6 Strike%) with four whiffs (12.1 SwStr%).
  • Kevin Ginkel worked a scoreless fifth, giving up a hit and striking out two.

Hierarchy remains: Paul Sewald | Ryan Thompson | Kevin Ginkel

Los Angeles Dodgers – Entering a tied game at the bottom of the ninth, Blake Treinen issued a lead-off walk followed by a walk-off, two-run home run (Brett Wisely), resulting in his second loss.

  • Ryan Yarbrough tossed two scoreless innings, giving up a hit and a walk.
  • Daniel Hudson suffered his fourth blown save. His outing began with Heliot Ramos reaching on an error and a one-out, go-ahead, two-run home run by Matt Chapman.

Hierarchy remains: Evan Phillips | Daniel Hudson | Alex Vesia

Milwaukee Brewers – Slamming the door on his 17th save, Trevor Megill retired the side against the Cubs’ 6-7-8 lineup pocket. He threw 11 pitches (81.8 Strike%) and induced one whiff. Through 13 appearances in June, he’s been scoreless in 12 and converted all nine save chances with 12 strikeouts versus four walks.

  • Jared Koenig stranded the bases-loaded in the seventh and logged 1.1 clean frames, recording three strikeouts for his fourth hold.
  • Elvis Peguero notched his eighth hold, giving up two hits and a walk while striking out two over 1.1 scoreless innings.

Hierarchy remains: Trevor Megill | Joel Payamps | Bryan Hudson

New York Mets – Taking over in the top of the sixth, Dedniel Núñez scattered three hits and allowed a walk while striking out one over two scoreless innings. He collected his second win courtesy of a four-run rally in the bottom of the inning.

  • Jake Diekman tossed a scoreless eighth, giving up a hit.
  • Reed Garrett finished the five-run win, navigating around two hits and striking out one in a scoreless ninth.

Hierarchy remains: *Reed Garrett | *Jake Diekman | Adam Ottavino

*= match-up-based approach

San Diego Padres – Stephen Kolek collected his second win. He logged two scoreless frames, yielding a hit and striking out two. He benefited from his teammates scoring nine runs in the top of the fifth in Boston.

  • Finishing a seven-run win, Yuki Matsui tossed a scoreless bottom of the ninth, giving up a hit and striking out two.
  • Austin Davis made his season debut, working a scoreless eighth. He allowed a walk and recorded a strikeout.

Hierarchy remains: Robert Suarez | Jeremiah Estrada | Enyel De Los Santos

San Francisco Giants – With a one-run lead at the top of the ninth, Camilo Doval suffered his third blown save at the top of the ninth. He allowed a lead-off triple by Andy Pages and a sacrifice fly by Jason Heyward. He settled in and retired the next two batters, one via strikeout, and collected his third win courtesy of a walk-off rally in the bottom of the inning. He threw 12 pitches (66.7 Strike%) and induced two whiffs (16.7 SwStr%). Through 10 outings in June, he’s converted five of seven save opportunities this month but allowed at least a run in three contests with a 2.00 WHIP over nine innings.

  • Tyler Rogers secured his 14th hold, giving up a hit and striking out one in a scoreless eighth.

Hierarchy remains: Camilo Doval | Tyler Rogers | Ryan Walker

St. Louis Cardinals – Securing his 29th save, Ryan Helsley preserved a 1-0 shutout on a fly ball caught at the wall and two strikeouts. He’s converted a team-record 29 straight saves since April 1, the first streak of 29-plus saves in the majors since Josh Hader (32 between 2021 and 2022). He threw six pitches (83.3 Strike%) and produced one whiff (16.7 SwStr%).

  • Andrew Kittredge stranded a runner and retired his only batter via strikeout for his 23rd hold.
  • JoJo Romero recorded his MLB-leading 24th hold, issuing a walk during two-thirds scoreless in the eighth.
  • Ryan Fernandez stranded two runners in the sixth and fired 1.2 scoreless frames while striking out two for his seventh hold.

Hierarchy remains: Ryan Helsley | Andrew Kittredge | JoJo Romero

Vulture Save Options for Saturday, June 29

  • Justin Anderson (CHW): Kopech and Brebbia have appeared on consecutive days. Anderson owns a nine-game scoreless streak and should be in line for the vulture save against Colorado.
  • Ryan Walker (SFG): Doval has worked in three of the last four and could have an off day today.

Vulture Save Stashes for Sunday, June 30

  • Joel Payamps (MIL): If Megill pitches again today, he will get Sunday off.
  • Trent Thornton (SEA): If Muñoz and Stanek appear in today’s contest, both will be back-to-back outings.
  • Giovanny Gallegos (STL): This leverage ladder may be running on fumes, and if Helsley pitches again today, he will be down on Sunday.
  • Phil Maton (TBR): If Fairbanks and Adam pitch on Saturday, it will mark consecutive outings.

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Statistical Credits:

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Baseball-Reference.com

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Trade Deadline Primer, 2.0: Relievers in a fluid market

Not much has changed since last week’s first Trade Deadline Primer, but writers’ clickbait will continue, especially once we enter July. How teams handle their rosters will evolve over the next two weeks ahead of the All-Star game and take shape with about a week left before the July 30 deadline.

Setting a baseline, here are the playoff odds entering gameplay on June 28 from Baseball-Reference:

American League

In the American League, five teams have playoff odds of five percent or lower, and the defending World Champions have odds of less than ten percent.

National League

In the National League, only two teams have a less than one percent chance of the playoffs, and six teams below 12 percent, but there’s a logjam in the Wild Card standings still:

With this in mind, Jon Heyman once again listed seven relievers he believes could be moved. There is no research or semblance of reasoning by him, but you can see for yourself at this link. Otherwise, here are the seven relievers he listed:

  • Tanner Scott (MIA)
  • Mason Miller (OAK)
  • Garrett Crochet (CWS)
  • Carlos Estévez (LAA)
  • Kenley Jansen (BOS)
  • Pete Fairbanks (TBR)
  • Michael Kopech (CHW)

Conflicting reports about Boston’s intentions with Kenley Jansen have surfaced recently. With their recent hot streak, the team may prefer to remain with its current roster while awaiting the returns of Tristan Casas and Liam Hendriks. Plus, in this column by Alex Speier of The Boston Globe, the veteran closer shared his thoughts about a trade potentially putting him into a match-up-based bullpen:

This does not sound like a reliever seeking change, even as a pending free agent.

Eno Sarris and Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic put forth tiered rankings of players who may be moved. It’s a longer list of relievers with some interesting names included:

Noting Texas has struggled this year, Kirby Yates will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season, along with José Leclerc. Runner-up Arizona resides only two-and-a-half games out of the last Wild Card spot, but if the drift in the standings, Paul Sewald, also a free agent at the end of the season, could be placed on the trade block.

Kyle Finnegan is the biggest one on the list with variance versus previously posted content. He’s the only reliever with every one of his team’s saves this season, a 100 percent save share. Washington faces the difficult task of weighing a retooling on the fly and vying for a postseason berth. Plus, they are promoting top prospect James Wood for his MLB debut on Monday.

Tampa Bay will also face a crossroads this year. It can move starting pitchers with Shane Baz and Jeffrey Springs on rehab assignments. If the team remains on its current trajectory, it may also trade Pete Fairbanks and Jason Adam.

Using the last 30 days’ results (through June 27), here are some of the relievers discussed in these two columns in chart form with their SGPs (standings gain points):

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/usAHJ/1/

Last, using Tankathon, here are the strength of schedules for the remainder of the season by league.

American League

National League

Fantasy managers should note six of the teams facing tough deadline decisions reside in the top ten toughest remaining schedules. This may sway front offices as July 30 approaches.

Until then, we await game results and more injury updates while monitoring the trends in the standings.

Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community. Stay safe and be well.

Monkey Bytes: June 28

Thursday’s nine contests yielded four reliever wins, two losses, and four saves. Anthony Bender recorded a blown save and a win against the Phillies, a rare but intriguing combination for a reliever. Both Chicago teams not only won, but each recorded a save, another rare circumstance this season. Because of the limited slate, reliever leaderboards for the last 30 days will be included at the end of today’s post.

Three Takeaways

  • Cubs adjusted hierarchy: With a two-run lead in the bottom of the tenth, Craig Counsell summoned rookie Porter Hodge. He recorded five outs on Wednesday but worked around a bloop single with a strikeout, a flyout, and a game-ending pop-out for his first career save. Because of this usage pattern, Hodge will appear in our updated hierarchy below as the second in line instead of Keegan Thompson, who was available but not deployed in the two-run win:
  • White Sox adjusted hierarchy: The writing was on the wall during a loss when Michael Kopech pitched after John Brebbia, and yesterday’s combined shutout of Atlanta confirmed Pedro Grifol’s preference for Kopech as the primary save share. This may be fleeting since both relievers could be moved ahead of the trade deadline, but until then, plan on these roles going forward.
  • Joyce extends scoreless streak: In a non-save outing, Ben Joyce fired a clean top of the ninth, preserving a combined shutout of Detroit. He threw nine pitches (88.9 Strike%) and induced one whiff. He’s been scoreless in his last six outings.

Our condensed recaps will take on a different look based on yesterday’s limited high-leverage events.

Closer CliffsNotes for June 27

Chicago Cubs – Handed a two-run lead in San Francisco, Porter Hodge worked around a lead-off single for a scoreless tenth and recorded a strikeout during his first major league save. Hodge threw 20 pitches (70 Strike%) without a whiff. He’s been scoreless in eight of nine outings as a reliever.

  • Héctor Neris collected his seventh win. He turned in a clean bottom of the ninth, striking out two versus the Giants’ 6-7-8 hitters on 17 pitches (10 strikes – 58.8 Strike%) and produced one whiff.
  • Tyson Miller worked a scoreless eighth, allowing a walk and striking out one. He’s been scoreless in 13 of 16 appearances with the Cubs with a 16:3 K:BB through 17.2 innings.
  • Luke Little fired a clean seventh, striking out the side. He’s posted 10 strikeouts versus four walks over 6.1 innings this month.

Updated Hierarchy: Héctor Neris | Tyson Miller | Porter Hodge

Chicago White Sox – Preserving a combined shutout, Michael Kopech nailed down his sixth save with a clean ninth and a strikeout against Atlanta. He faced the 4-5-6 lineup pocket and threw 16 pitches (62.5 Strike%) with three whiffs (18.8 SwStr%). This marked his first save since May 15 and will be timely with his name being bandied about in trade talks.

  • John Brebbia held on for his ninth hold, navigating around a one-out single and a walk for a scoreless eighth inning. He’s recorded 17 strikeouts against two walks over 11.2 innings with a save and four holds.
  • Jared Shuster was awarded his first win. He logged three scoreless frames, allowing a hit and a walk while striking out two.

Updated Hierarchy: Michael Kopech | John Brebbia | Tanner Banks

Kansas City Royals – Capping a comeback over the Guardians, James McArthur worked clean top of the ninth, retiring the 8-9-1 hitters and preserving a one-run win for his 14th save. He threw eight pitches (62.5 Strike%) without a whiff but produced two groundouts and a pop-out in an efficient outing. He’s been scoreless in nine of ten appearances this month, converting two wins and three saves.

  • John Schreiber tossed a clean eighth and recorded a strikeout for his 17th hold.
  • Sam Long logged 1.2 scoreless frames, giving up a walk and striking out four. He collected his second win courtesy of a two-run rally in the sixth.

Hierarchy remains: James McArthur | John Schreiber | Chris Stratton

Miami Marlins – Shutting the door on his 11th save, Tanner Scott fired a clean bottom of the ninth and recorded a strikeout versus the Phillies top of the lineup. He threw nine pitches (66.7 Strike%) and induced one whiff. Through 11 appearances in June, he’s been scoreless in ten with 13 strikeouts against five walks while converting four of five save chances.

  • A.J. Puk notched his second hold, allowing a hit and striking out one in a scoreless eighth.
  • Anthony Bender collected his third win and was tagged with his second blown save, giving up a lead-off double with the runner advancing on a throwing error and scoring on a sacrifice fly. This tied the game and put an unearned run on his ledger, but the Marlins rallied for two runs in the top of the eighth.

Hierarchy remains: Tanner Scott | Calvin Faucher | Andrew Nardi

Philadelphia Phillies – Jeff Hoffman allowed a go-ahead solo home run with the game tied in the top of the eighth. He finished with two hits allowed and two runs (one earned) while striking out one, resulting in his first loss. 

  • Entering the top of the seventh and inheriting two runners, Matt Strahm hit Jazz Chisolm Jr. with a pitch and allowed a bases-emptying double by Bryan De La Cruz. Not only did he let both inherited runners, but he finished with two earned runs on his ledger and suffered his third blown save.

Hierarchy remains: *José Alvarado | *Jeff Hoffman | Orion Kerkering

*= floating closer

San Francisco Giants – Taking over at the top of the tenth, Luke Jackson suffered his second loss, giving up Ian Happ’s go-ahead two-run home run. His final line was one hit allowed and two runs (one earned).

  • Sean Hjelle navigated around two hits and recorded two strikeouts in a scoreless ninth.
  • Ryan Walker worked a scoreless eighth, yielding a hit and striking out two.

Hierarchy remains: Camilo Doval | Tyler Rogers | Ryan Walker

Vulture Save Options for Friday, June 28

  • Chris Stratton (KCR): After using “The General” the previous two days, he will get today off, and the team has preferred Stratton as the ancillary option in these circumstances.

Vulture Save Options for Saturday, June 29

  • Keegan Thompson (CHC): Yes, he was passed over yesterday, but if Neris pitches today it will be consecutive appearances and require an off day on Saturday.
  • Calvin Faucher (MIA): If Scott pitches tonight, it may provide an audition for Faucher on Saturday. However, A.J. Puk could also be a factor in a save chance on Saturday. Stay tuned.

Last 30 Days’ Leaders

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/zxdKM/1/

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Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Vg0Fm/2/

Closer Monkey’s filthy outing of the day goes to Sam Long. He racked up four strikeouts during 1.2 scoreless frames against Cleveland, including strikeouts against Steven Kwan and José Ramírez – video courtesy of the Pitching Ninja.

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Monkey Bytes: June 27

Wednesday provided one of the strangest slates in recent memory. Of the 16 games played, five had a reliever record a win, and only five ended in a save. Two were a reliever’s first of the season: Adrian Houser (NYM) and Trent Thornton (SEA). Eight high-leverage relievers made non-save appearances, including James McArthur, Mason Miller, Alexis Díaz, and Raisel Iglesias.

Not only did the Cubs play another one-run contest, but they also suffered another loss, with their bullpen remaining in flux during high-leverage moments. Today’s three takeaways will cover this and other topics.

Three Takeaways

  • Cubs’ one-run games: Last night, Chicago played its 33rd game decided by one-run and suffered its 19th loss in them (.424 winning percentage). This loss was part baserunning and part bullpen, but overcoming these mistakes is tough. Drew Smyly suffered his second loss in three days. Although Porter Hodge and Keegan Thompson worked scoreless outings, which is encouraging, it was not enough. Fantasy managers remain in search of a reliable source of saves in this leverage ladder. Will the next save be provided two Tyson Miller? Héctor Neris? Time will tell, but with Yency Almonte suffering a setback in his rehab, and Ben Brown’s return status and role unknown, reinforcements may not arrive before the All-Star break.
  • Muñoz’s rough outing: Pitching through lingering back soreness will provide outcomes like Wednesday’s, though Scott Servais’s use of Andrés Muñoz in a non-save appearance did not seem necessary. Taking over with a four-run lead, Muñoz issued two walks and hit Isaac Paredes with a pitch before being removed. He threw 18 pitches and only six strikes, inducing zero whiffs. He missed to his arm side with his four-seam fastball and could not control his slider. Days like this may occur, but he will be on watch during his outings this weekend:
  • Boston’s deadline decisions: Currently tied for the last Wild Card position, the Red Sox face some difficult decisions over the next three weeks. It’s closer; Kenley Jansen prefers staying with the team and pursuing a championship in this column by Alex Speier for The Boston Globe. However, Liam Hendriks completed his first bullpen session in preparation for a return last July or early August, right around the trade deadline (July 30). Perhaps the team’s play over the next three weeks will make a decision about Jansen easier, but he clearly states in article that he does not want to be a part of a match-up-based bullpen. Stay tuned.

Closer CliffsNotes

American League

(RP | BAL): Displaying no signs of rust, Craig Kimbrel recorded his 17th save, appearing for the first time in six days. He tossed a scoreless ninth, issuing a walk and striking out three while preserving a two-run win over Cleveland. 

(RP | KCR): Representing the perfect example of a vulture win, Angel Zerpa recorded two outs and struck out one in the top of the eighth. He collected his first win courtesy of a five-run rally in the bottom of the inning.

Hierarchy remains: James McArthur | John Schreiber | Chris Stratton

(RP | LAA): Matt Moore collected his fourth win, retiring the side in the sixth and striking out one ahead of his team’s five-run rally in the bottom of the inning.

Hierarchy remains: Carlos Estévez | Luis García | Matt Moore

(RP | SEA): Taking over a bases-loaded situation with no outs in the bottom of the ninth, Trent Thornton induced consecutive groundouts, including a game-ending double play, resulting in his first save. 

(RP | TBR): Taking over in the sixth, Shawn Armstrong induced a groundout, issued a walk, and gave up Cal Raleigh’s go-ahead three-run home run. This put two earned runs on his ledger and let an inherited runner score. Armstrong suffered his second loss and second blown save as a result.

Hierarchy remains: Pete Fairbanks | Jason Adam | Colin Poche

(RP | TEX): Entering a tied game in the bottom of the tenth, Jacob Latz suffered his third loss. He allowed a walk-off, two-out RBI single by Andruw Monasterio. 

National League

(RP | CHC): Taking over a tied game in the fifth, Drew Smyly suffered his fifth loss, allowing a solo home run by Luis Matos. Smyly logged 1.1 innings, giving up three hits and an earned run while striking out two.

Hierarchy remains: *Héctor Neris | *Tyson Miller | *Keegan Thompson

*=  closer-by-committee

(RP | MIA): Entering with a 1-0 lead, Huascar Brazobán recorded two quick outs in the eighth, but then the wheels came off the bus. He allowed a Bobby Witt Jr. triple, followed by a game-tying RBI single by Vinnie Pasquantino, who was replaced by Dairon Blanco; after a stolen base, he scored the go-ahead run on a Salvador Perez double. Consecutive singles produced another run and Brazobán’s removal. He finished with five hits allowed, five earned runs, and one strikeout over two-thirds of an inning.

Hierarchy remains: Tanner Scott | Calvin Faucher | Andrew Nardi

(RP | MIL): After working a scoreless top of the tenth, Jared Koenig collected his seventh win courtesy of a walk-off rally in the bottom of the inning. He allowed a walk and recorded two strikeouts. 

(RP | NYM): Recording his first career save, Adrian Houser pitched three scoreless innings in a lopsided win over the Yankees. He scattered two hits and gave up a walk while striking out three. He threw 44 pitches (25 strikes—56.8 Strike%) and only induced one whiff.

Updated Hierarchy: *Reed Garrett | *Jake Diekman | Adam Ottavino

*= match-up-based approach

(RP | PHI): Entering in the bottom of the fifth, José Ruiz retired the side and recorded two strikeouts. He was awarded his second win by the Tigers’ home scorer. 

(RP | SFG): Preserving a one-run win, Camilo Doval worked around a lead-off hit for a scoreless ninth while recording one strikeout and his 14th save. 

(RP | STL): Preserving a split, Ryan Helsley recorded his MLB-leading 28th save with a scoreless ninth in Game 2 versus Atlanta. He navigated around a hit and a walk while striking out one. 

Vulture Save Options for Thursday, June 27

  • Griffin Jax (MIN): He could be in line for the save chance this afternoon in Arizona after Jhoan Durán pitched in the eighth inning during a loss, but roles in this leverage ladder can be fluid.
  • Ryan Walker (SFG): Doval and Tyler Rogers have pitched on consecutive days, leaving Walker atop the hierarchy with the team trying for a sweep of the Cubs.
  • Ryan Fernandez (STL): The rookie could receive an ancillary save chance with the team’s hierarchy needing rest. Helsley has pitched in three of the last four, throwing 56 pitches. Kittredge and Romero appear fatigued.

Vulture Save Options for Friday, June 28

  • Yennier Cano (BAL): If Kimbrel pitches today, it will be two in a row and an off-day on Friday.
  • Fernando Cruz (CIN): If Díaz works in tonight’s contest, he will get Friday off.
  • Chris Stratton (KCR): McArthur logged a non-save outing during a four-run win yesterday, and if he pitches again tonight, he will be unavailable on Friday.

American League – Full Recaps

Baltimore Orioles – Making his first appearance in six days, Craig Kimbrel shut the door on his 17th save. He issued a two-out walk (Josh Naylor) before inducing a game-ending strikeout, his third of the inning, while preserving a two-run win over the Guardians. He threw 18 pitches (11 strikes – 61.1 Strike%) and induced two whiffs. He’s converted four of five save chances in June while posting 11 strikeouts against three walks across eight games spanning 7.1 innings. Cionel Pérez retired the side in the eighth, recording his eighth hold. 

Hierarchy remains: Craig Kimbrel | Yennier Cano | Cionel Pérez

Seattle Mariners – Pressed into action and inheriting a bases-loaded situation with no outs in the bottom of the ninth, Trent Thornton recorded his first save. He induced a fielder’s choice groundout, scoring one inherited runner and a game-ending double-play groundout, preserving a three-run win over the Rays. He threw 12 pitches (75 Strike%). Andrés Muñoz struggled during his hon-save appearance. He issued two walks and hit a batter without recording an out. He missed arm side with his four-seam fastball and only threw six strikes among his 18 pitches before being lifted. He gets tagged with an earned run and a rough ratio outing. Ryne Stanek tossed a scoreless eighth, giving up a bloop single and striking out one.

Updated Hierarchy: *Andrés Muñoz (HLR/PSS) | Ryne Stanek | Trent Thornton

*= An HLR/PSS means he’s the preferred save option but will be used at the highest-leverage moment in games when necessary. 

Texas Rangers – Despite retiring two batters on pop-outs in the bottom of the tenth, Jacob Latz suffered his third loss. He allowed a walk-off RBI single by Andruw Monasterio, scoring the “place” runner. Kirby Yates navigated around a hit and a walk (intentional – Christian Yelich) while striking out two in a scoreless ninth. After Brice Turang singled, an errant pick-off throw moved him to third, but Yates bore down, recording a strikeout against William Contreras and an inning-ending strikeout of Willy Adames. David Robertson worked a scoreless eighth, issuing a walk and striking out two.

Hierarchy remains: Kirby Yates | David Robertson | José Leclerc

National League – Full Recaps

Milwaukee Brewers – Benefiting from a walk-off rally, Jared Koenig collected his seventh win after tossing a scoreless top of the tenth. He issued a walk and recorded two strikeouts while throwing 13 pitches (8 strikes – 61.5 Strike%) with four whiffs (30.8 SwStr%). Trevor Megill worked a scoreless ninth, giving up a hit on 12 pitches (66.7 Strike%) and getting two whiffs (16.7 SwStr%). Through 12 appearances in June, he’s been scoreless in 11 with 12 strikeouts versus four walks while converting all eight save chances. Joel Payamps fired a clean eighth, striking out one. Bryan Hudson retired the side in the seventh and recorded a strikeout.

Hierarchy remains: Trevor Megill | Joel Payamps | Bryan Hudson

Philadelphia Phillies – Making a non-save appearance, José Alvarado allowed two hits and an earned run while striking out one. He closed out a four-run win but gave up a lead-off double, threw a wild pitch, and an RBI single by Andy Ibañez before retiring the next three batters. He threw 16 pitches (50 Strike%) and induced two whiffs. This snapped his four-game scoreless streak, and he last secured a save on June 11. This snapped his four-game scoreless streak, and he last secured a save on June 11. Jeff Hoffman retired the side in the eighth. Orion Kerkering fired a clean seventh. Matt Stahm worked a scoreless sixth, yielding a hit. José Ruiz collected his second win, tossing a clean fifth and striking out two.

Hierarchy remains: *José Alvarado | *Jeff Hoffman | Orion Kerkering

*= floating closer

San Francisco Giants – Navigating around a lead-off single, Camilo Doval retired the next three hitters, one via strikeout for his 14th save. He preserved a one-run win, throwing eight pitches (87.5 Strike%) and did not produce a whiff. He’s converted his last five save chances and been scoreless in seven of his last outings. Tyler Rogers benefited from an inning-ending caught stealing. He recorded a scoreless inning despite allowing two hits and a walk. Erik Miller retired the side and recorded a strikeout for his 11th hold. Luke Jackson collected his fourth win, logging 1.1 scoreless innings and walking one.

Hierarchy remains: Camilo Doval | Tyler Rogers | Ryan Walker

St. Louis Cardinals – Securing a split in today’s doubleheader and his MLB-leading 28th save, Ryan Helsley navigated around a hit and a walk while striking out one in a scoreless ninth against Atlanta. He issued a one-out walk to Matt Olson and gave up a single by Austin Riley before inducing a groundout followed by a game-ending strikeout. Helsley’s converted 28 straight saves this season and converted 10 this month. JoJo Romero let one of two inherited runners score on an RBI single by Jarred Kelenic and retired one in the top of the eighth for his 23rd hold. Andrew Kittredge allowed two hits and an earned run during his two-thirds of the eighth, getting credit for his 22nd hold.

Hierarchy remains: Ryan Helsley | Andrew Kittredge | JoJo Romero

During his 28th save, Ryan Helsley gets our filthy pitch of the day, courtesy of this slider – video provided by the Pitching Ninja.

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Statistical Credits:

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