Under the Hood: What’s going on with David Bednar and Héctor Neris

Life, like underlying data, can be tricky. Although time did not allow itself last week, it’s time for another Under the Hood session featuring two relievers in the National League Central. Acknowledging ERA can be a fluky statistic, lets post some surface numbers for the two relievers:

  • Reliever A: 17 games, 19:5 K:BB, 1.53 WHIP
  • Reliever B: 16 games, 13:14 K:BB, 1.80 WHIP

Which one owns the lower ERA? As one can assume, it’s Reliever B, Héctor Neris. Despite his inflated WHIP, he’s posted a 3.00 ERA through 15 innings this season. Reliever A, David Bednar has a 9.00 ERA even though he allows less contact, throws more strikes, and induces more whiffs. Using season-to-date results, each reliever’s outcomes, and outlook will be explored in today’s post.

David Bednar, Pittsburgh Pirates

It’s tough not rooting for the “Renegade“. He’s a hometown talent playing in front of friends and family. However, he missed most of the spring with a latissimus dorsi issue and had a rough start to his season. Fantasy managers assumed with more repetitions that Bednar would find past form, which can still happen.

Seeing his current ERA, and his 3.03 SIERA, a metric on Fangraphs that predicts in-season ERA better than other ones such as FIP, one envisions him as a potential buy low from a fantasy perspective. But he must improve his results, especially in contact allowed and with his four-seam fastball placement.

Beginning with his contact trends this season, he’s produced a career-worst 30.4 percent line drive rate, fueling a disparity in his quality of contact:

  • 2.2 pop-up percentage plus 4.3 percent weak contact = 6.5 percent poor contact-induced
  • 8.7 solid contact percentage plus a 13 percent barrel rate = 21.7 good contact allowed

As a comparison, here’s his heatmap from Statcast with his pitches this year:

However, on hits this season, one notices most are on fastballs at the middle or bottom third of the strike zone:

Location may play a part in his early struggles, but when viewing his splits-by-pitch this year versus past results, the fastball results jump off the chart:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/J2Lfr/2/

One would think he would throw more of his secondary pitches, but he’s increased his four-seam use early on this year:

Hope lies in improved results with the curve, which has suffered a steep drop in swinging strike percentage in 2024. Delving into his leverage trends, there are no major differences, which may mean better outcomes lie in the offing:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/rwSLw/3/

It’s tough giving up on a closer like Bednar, especially when he’s produced a 19.4 K-BB percentage with a 65.4 strike percentage and a 72.9 percent contact rate allowed. Monitor his results over the next two weeks closely, especially the curve, and hope this will be a small sample fantasy players forget about as the year progresses.

Héctor Neris, Chicago Cubs

It’s been a running joke in the game recaps, but he’s been the “Teflon” man during high-leverage events. He’s logged 16 appearances this year with one clean outing. He’s issued at least a walk during 10 games, and multiple walks in three.

He’s staved off trouble by increasing his ground ball percentage, currently at a career-best 54.8 percent. Despite the high volume of traffic on the bases in his outings, he’s only induced one groundball double play out of 22 opportunities. Like Bednar, he’s not performed great in terms of quality of contact, but it does not have as large of a disparity:

  • 2.4 pop-up percentage plus a 9.5 percent weak contact rate = 11.9 percent poor contact-induced
  • 7.1 solid percentage plus an 11.9 percent barrel rate = 18.9 percent good contact allowed

Leaning into his split-finger fastball has helped him avoid implosions:

But, when diving into his splits by pitch this year compared with past results, there are some eye-opening numbers:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/juCNv/1/

Taking this step further, his leverage trends in this updated chart:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ZmOLj/3/

One cannot refute Neris being a valuable component of Chicago’s leverage ladder, but it’s tough staving off this much pending migration, especially with a negative K-BB percentage. He’s relied on and produced results with the split-finger fastball, but he will be forced to adjust if hitters lay off this pitch moving forward. It will be intriguing to see how he performs through the end of May, and into June. Note his 5.75 SIERA entering his next appearance.

Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community. Stay safe and be well.

Statistical Credits:

Baseball-Reference.com

Fangrapghs.com

Monkey Bytes, May 13: Jansen eschews workload management, Beeks records his third save, Durán in HLR purgatory, Game Recaps, and more

Once again, Sunday only provided five saves among its 15 contests, with some intriguing usage patterns. Kenley Jansen appeared for a third straight game, a rarity in the world of workload management. Jalen Beeks has emerged as the preferred save share for the Rockies, closing out a sweep of the defending World Champion Rangers.

Even in a non-save situation, Rocco Baldelli frustrates fantasy players, using Jhoan Durán in the ninth with a four-run lead, using him against Vlad Guerrero Jr.’s lineup pocket. With the Yankees and Guardians on tap this week, one anticipates this continues with the “Durántula” facing Aaron Judge and José Ramírez in the highest leveraged moments in their respective series.

Our condensed and full recaps cover all the high-leverage events of interest from Sunday’s slate.

Closer CliffsNotes

American League

(RP | BOS): Logging a third straight appearance, Kenley Jansen recorded his seventh save, navigating around a one-out hit for a scoreless ninth, preserving a one-run over the Nationals. 

(RP | DET): Rough outing alert for Alex Lange, and when he melts down, fantasy players know it. His final line was five hits against, four earned runs, and two walks over two-thirds combined innings. He threw 27 pitches (15 strikes – 55.6 Strike%) with two whiffs. His WHIP rose from 1.14 to 1.57 as a result.

Hierarchy remains (for now): *Alex Lange | *Andrew Chafin | *Jason Foley

*= closer-by-committee

(RP | KCR): Despite serving up a solo home run in the bottom of the ninth, James McArthur recorded his ninth save, finishing a 4-2 win over the Angels.

(RP | MIN): Remaining on brand, Rocco Baldelli called upon Jhoan Durán with Vlad Guerrero Jr.’s lineup pocket due in the ninth, however, it was a non-save outing. He turned in a scoreless outing despite hitting a batter (Bo Bichette), throwing 14 pitches (50 Strike%), and inducing one whiff. He’s been scoreless over seven appearances this season with eight strikeouts versus one walk over seven innings.

Hierarchy remains: *Jhoan Durán (HLR/PSS) | *Griffin Jax | *Caleb Thielbar

*An HLR/PSS means he’s the preferred save option, but will be used in the highest-leverage moment in games when deemed necessary. 

(RP | NYY): Emerging as a high-leverage impact reliever, Luke Weaver let one of three inherited runners score on a hit-by-pitch, but recorded 1.2 scoreless frames, keeping his team ahead and securing his fight hold. He’s amid a nine-game scoreless streak with 20 strikeouts versus one walk over 15.1 innings and a 0.26 WHIP.

Adjusted Hierarchy: Clay Holmes | Luke Weaver | Victor González

(RP | SEA): Wrapping up an 8-4 win, in a non-save outing, Andrés Muñoz retired the side in the top of the ninth against Oakland. He threw nine pitches (55.6 Strike%) without a whiff. This marked his first appearance since May 7 and extended his scoreless streak to seven games, spanning, eight innings and posting seven strikeouts versus one walk with a 0.38 WHIP. He’s converted three saves and collected a win during this stretch.

Hierarchy remains: Andrés Muñoz | Ryne Stanek | Gabe Speier

(RP | TOR): Appearing on consecutive days did not go well for Erik Swanson, he allowed two hits, two earned runs, and a walk while striking out one in the top of the eighth. In his last seven outings, he’s allowed at least a run in five resulting in nine earned runs through these five innings.

Hierarchy remains (for now): Jordan Romano | Yimi García (HLR) | Erik Swanson

National League

(RP | ATL): Providing his teammates rest, A.J. Minter received the ancillary save chance, but suffered his third loss, and his third blown save, giving up two hits, including a walk-off, two-run home run by Brandon Nimmo. 

Hierarchy remains: Raisel Iglesias | A.J. Minter | Joe Jiménez

(RP | CHC): Hanging on for his fourth save, Adbert Alzolay allowed a hit, two runs (one earned), and a walk while closing out a one-run win in the bottom of the tenth. 

(RP | CIN): Although he did not finish the bottom of the tenth, Emilio Pagán suffered his third loss when the “place” runner scored on a walk-off hit allowed by Lucas Sims. 

(RP | COL): Securing his third save, and a sweep against Texas, Jalen Beeks worked around two hits for a scoreless top of the ninth, preserving a two-run win.

(RP | MIA): Escaping with a scoreless top of the tenth, Anthony Bender collected his first win courtesy of a walk-off rally in the bottom of the inning. 

(RP | NYM): Keeping his team within one run, Edwin Díaz fired a clean top of the ninth, striking out one. He collected his first win courtesy of a walk-off, two-run home run by teammate Brandon Nimmo in the bottom of the inning. 

(RP | PHI): Taking over in the bottom of the tenth, Gregory Soto was tagged with his first loss, giving up a walk-off single by Emmanuel Rivera without recording an out. 

(RP | PIT): Taking over in the top of the tenth, Aroldis Chapman suffered his third loss, allowing three hits, three runs (one earned), and two walks over two-thirds of the inning. 

(RP | SDP): Preserving a combined shutout, Robert Suarez fired a scoreless top of the ninth, recording a strikeout against the Dodgers’ 3-4-5-6 hitters, Teoscar Hernández reached on a fielding error by Xander Bogaerts. Suarez threw 22 pitches (16 strikes – 72.7 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (13.6 SwStr%). He owns a 15-game scoreless streak with 13 strikeouts against four walks with a 0.56 WHIP over 16 innings.

Adjusted Hierarchy: Robert Suarez | Yuki Matsui | Wandy Peralta

(RP | SFG): Benefiting from a walk-off rally, Luke Jackson collected his first win after tossing a scoreless top of the tenth, walking one and striking out two against the Reds.

(RP | STL): Locking down his 12th save, Ryan Helsley fired a clean bottom of the ninth, striking out two while preserving a one-run win in Milwaukee. 

Game Recaps – American League

Boston Red Sox – Workload management be damned, Kenley Jansen secured his seventh save, tossing a scoreless ninth, working around a one-out single by Nick Senzel with a flyout and a game-ending caught stealing. This marked his third straight appearance. He threw 14 pitches (8 strikes – 57.1 Strike%) without a whiff. He’s been scoreless in six of his last seven, converting all three save chances with 10 strikeouts versus one walk over seven innings. Chris Martin fired a clean eighth, striking out one for his fifth hold.

Hierarchy remains: Kenley Jansen | Chris Martin | Justin Slaten

Kansas City Royals – Taking the baton from starter Seth Lugo, James McArthur notched his ninth save despite giving up a solo home run (Willie Calhoun). It’s been a rough patch, but he’s converted nine of 12 save opportunities this year. However, he’s also allowed at least a run during three of his last four appearances (six runs, five earned) over 4.2 innings.

Hierarchy remains: James McArthur | John Schreiber | Chris Stratton

Game Recaps – National League

Chicago Cubs – Handed a three-run lead in the bottom of the tenth, Adbert Alzolay held on for his fourth save, serving up a home run by Connor Joe, and issuing a walk before inducing a groundout, a flyout, and a gam-ending lineout. His final line, was one hit allowed, two runs (one earned), and a walk. Héctor Neris collected his third win, navigating around two hits and a walk while striking out one in a scoreless bottom of the ninth. It’s like he’s the “Teflon” man of high-leverage relievers, staving off his underlying metrics with scoreless outings. Mark Leiter Jr. fired 1.2 clean frames, striking out two.

Hierarchy remains: Héctor Neris | Mark Leiter Jr. | Yency Almonte

Cincinnati Reds – Facing three batters in the top of the tenth, Emilio Pagán recorded two outs while walking one and striking out one. However, he was tagged with his third loss when the “place” runner after his removal. Lucas Sims took over with two outs and gave up a walk-off hit by Casey Schmitt, scoring one of his two inherited runners. Alexis Díaz tossed a scoreless bottom of the ninth while walking one. He threw 18 pitches (66.7 Strike%) without a whiff. Fernando Cruz fired a clean eighth, striking out two on 14 pitches (71.4 Strike%) with two whiffs (14.3 SwStr%).

Hierarchy remains: Alexis Díaz | Fernando Cruz | Lucas Sims

Colorado Rockies – Closing out a sweep of Texas, Jalen Beeks recorded his third save, navigating around two hits for a scoreless ninth, preserving a 3-1 win. He threw 20 pitches (75 Strike%) and induced one whiff. He’s converted a save in three of his last four outings and five straight games-finished. Tyler Kinley notched his second hold, walking one during a scoreless eighth. Victor Vodnik logged two scoreless frames, allowing a walk and striking out one for his first hold.

Updated Hierarchy: *Jalen Beeks | *Justin Lawrence (HLR) | Jake Bird

*= closer-by-committee

Miami Marlins – After navigating around two walks, one intentional (Bryce Harper), Anthony Bender collected his first win with a scoreless top of the tenth. He threw 23 pitches (14 strikes – 60.9 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (13 SwStr%) while striking out one. Tanner Scott tossed two scoreless frames, allowing two walks and striking out one on 39 pitches (21 strikes – 53.8 Strike%) with five whiffs (12.8 SwStr%). Calvin Faucher retired the side in the seventh. Andrew Nardi let both inherited runners score in the sixth, and an earned run on his ledger, giving up a two-RBI triple and a sacrifice fly during his two-thirds of an inning.

Updated Hierarchy: Tanner Scott | Andrew Nardi | Anthony Bender

New York Mets – With his team down on in the top of the ninth, Edwin Díaz retired the 9-1-2 Atlanta hitters in order while striking out one. After a walk-off rally, he collected his first win. He threw 14 pitches (11 strikes – 78.6 Strike%) and induced one whiff. Jake Diekman stranded a runner despite walking one over two-thirds scoreless in the eighth. Adam Ottavino allowed a hit, an earned run, and a walk during his one-third of the eighth. Reed Garrett logged two scoreless frames, yielding a hit and a walk while striking out three

Hierarchy remains: Edwin Díaz | Adam Ottavino | Reed Garrett

Philadelphia Phillies – Suffering his first loss, Gregory Soto issued an intentional walk in the bottom of the tenth, then gave up a walk-off, RBI single by Emmanuel Rivera. Jeff Hoffman worked a scoreless ninth, walking one and striking out one, keeping the game tied. Matt Strahm fired a clean eighth, striking out the side on 20 pitches (65 Strike%) and producing two whiffs. José Alvarado retired the side in the seventh, facing the Marlins’ 3-4-5 batters. Spencer Turnbull tossed a scoreless sixth, yielding a hit and striking out two. Orion Kerkering turned in a clean fifth, striking out one.

Hierarchy remains: *José Alvarado | *Jeff Hoffman | Orion Kerkering

*= closer-by-committee

Pittsburgh Pirates – Another late-inning meltdown cost the Pirates, this time by Aroldis Chapman. He took over the top of the tenth and allowed an RBI single by Cody Bellinger, scoring the “place” runner, with Bellinger getting thrown out at second. After a flyout, things went awry. Patrick Wisdom homered, followed by a Mike Tauchman walk, and a single. Chapman left with the bases loaded and was charged with two unearned runs after a passed ball let the third run score. His final line was three hits allowed, three runs (one earned), and two walks, resulting in his third loss. Kyle Nicolas let one of three inherited runners score and recorded one out in the tenth. David Bednar worked a scoreless ninth, giving up a hit and a walk while striking out one.

Hierarchy remains: David Bednar | Aroldis Chapman | Colin Holderman

San Francisco Giants – Recording a scoreless top of the tenth resulted in Luke Jackson collecting his first win. He issued a walk and struck out two while stranding the “place” runner. Camilo Doval kept the game tied, stranding a runner in the eighth and logging 1.1 scoreless frames, walking one and striking out two. He threw 23 pitches (13 strikes – 56.5 Strike%) and induced three whiffs (13 SwStr%). Ryan Walker struggled, he let an inherited runner score in the seventh and gave up four hits, including a home run during his combined inning of relief, handing him his first blown save. 

Hierarchy remains: Camilo Doval | Tyler Rogers | Ryan Walker

St. Louis Cardinals – Displaying no signs of rust, Ryan Helsley fired a clean bottom of the ninth, recording two strikeouts while preserving a one-run win over Milwaukee for his 12th save. He threw 12 pitches (83.3 Strike%) and three whiffs (25 SwStr%). He last appeared on May 4 and secured his last save on May 3, but this outing extended his scoreless streak to 13 games, spanning 13 innings with 16 strikeouts against one walk. Andrew Kittredge notched his 11th hold, retiring both batters faced, one via strikeout. JoJo Romero recorded his 13th hold, allowing a hit and striking out two over 1.1 scoreless frames.

Hierarchy remains: Ryan Helsley | Andrew Kittredge | JoJo Romero

Vulture Save Options for Monday, May 13

BOS: Jansen’s appeared in three straight and Martin on consecutive days. Justin Slaten could record a multi-inning save or Greg Weissert may receive the save chance if Slaten pitches the seventh and eighth innings.

COL: Beeks has pitched in three of the last four, opening the door for a Justin Lawrence save, if provided.

MIA: Scott threw 39 pitches over two innings on Sunday, which places Anthony Bender in line for the vulture save today.

PIT: Bednar and Chapman worked both games this weekend, putting Colin Holderman atop the hierarchy in tonight’s contest.

Vulture Save Options for Tuesday, May 14

CHC: If Neris pitches again on Monday, look for Yency Almonte on Tuesday, unless they give Leiter Jr. an off day, this would slot him into the vulture spot.

CIN: If Díaz pitches tonight, it will be two in a row, and the leverage ladder has been worked heavily, which means an off-the-radar chance could fall upon Buck Farmer.

KCR: If McArthur pitches on Monday, John Schreiber would be in line for Tuesday’s vulture save.

NYM: If their Díaz pitches today, it will be consecutive outings, which may yield a Reed Garrett save chance on Tuesday.

SFG: If Doval pitches on Monday, Tyler Rogers may receive the save chance on Tuesday.

Closer Monkey’s filthy pitch of the day, these sliders by Ryan Helsley, provided by the Pitching Ninja.

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Monkey Bytes, May 12: Kimbrel records his fourth win, Jansen secures his sixth save, Game Recaps, and more

First, a Happy Mother’s Day to our readers, and their families.

An extra-inning contest forced manager Brandon Hyde’s hand in the top of the 11th. He brought in Craig Kimbrel into a high-leverage situation, and the veteran closer responded, tossing a scoreless frame and stranding the “place” runner against the heart of Arizona’s lineup. A walk-off single provided him with his fourth win. Kenley Jansen moved back in front of Kimbrel in the career saves race, securing his sixth of the season, and 426th of his career.

There were only five saves during Saturday’s full 15-game slate, including the first by John Brebbia this season, and since 2018. Our condensed and full recaps cover all the high-leverage events of interest.

Closer CliffsNotes

American League

(RP | BAL): Thrust into a high-leverage event, Craig Kimbrel took over in the top of the 11th, against the heart of the Diamondbacks’ lineup, and Corbin Carroll as the “place” runner. He turned in a scoreless outing, hitting a batter and striking out one, then collected his fourth win via a walk-off in the bottom of the frame. 

(RP | BOS): Securing his sixth save, Kenley Jansen fired a clean top of the ninth, striking out two while preserving a two-run win over Washington. 

(RP | CWS): Facing the heart of the Guardians’ lineup, Pedro Grifol turned to John Brebbia, and the veteran reliever responded by recording his first save of the season after retiring the side in order, and striking out one, closing out a 3-1 win. 

(RP | TBR): Returning from the injured list, Pete Fairbanks fired a clean top of the ninth, finishing a five-run win over the Yankees. It’s his first major league outing since April 17 and he threw 11 pitches (63.6 Strike%) without getting a whiff.

Adjusted Hierarchy: Pete Fairbanks | Jason Adam | Garrett Cleavinger

(RP | TEX): Taking over with a runner on, and one out, David Robertson struggled with the conditions and his command. He allowed two hits, four earned runs, a hit batter, and a walk without recording an out in the seventh. He was tagged with his first loss and his third blown save as a result. 

Hierarchy remains: Kirby Yates | David Robertson | José Leclerc

(RP | TOR): Putting the bow on a comeback win, Jordan Romano recorded his sixth save, allowing a hit and striking out two during a scoreless top of the ninth against the Twins. 

National League

(RP | ARI): Tasked with an extended outing in extra-innings, Bryce Jarvis worked a scoreless bottom of the tenth, but suffered his second loss allowing a walk-off hit by Jordan Westburg in the 11th. 

(RP | ATL): During a non-save outing, Raisel Iglesias allowed two hits, including a solo home run, and a walk while finishing a win over the Mets. 

(RP | CHC): Entering in the fifth after a prolonged rain delay, Keegan Thompson suffered his first loss, allowing two hits, including a three-run home run by Yasmani Grandal, and issued two walks while striking out two.

Hierarchy remains: Héctor Neris | Mark Leiter Jr. | Yency Almonte

(RP | COL): Benefiting from a six-run outburst by his teammates in the bottom of the seventh, Tyler Kinley collected his second win, firing 1.1 clean frames and striking out one against Texas. 

Updated Hierarchy: *Justin Lawrence | *Jake Bird | *Jalen Beeks

*= closer-by-committee

(RP | MIL): After recording two quick outs, Trevor Megill allowed two hits, but retired Nolan Arenado on a game-ending flyout, securing his fourth save. 

(RP | PIT): Another sullied save for the “Renegade“. David Bednar allowed two hits and an earned run, but held on for his seventh save, closing out a one-run win over the Cubs. 

(RP | SFG): With two runners on and one out, Taylor Rogers took over in the top of the fifth and retired both via strikeout. As a result, he was awarded his first win of the season. 

Hierarchy remains: Camilo Doval | Tyler Rogers | Ryan Walker

(RP | STL): With his team ahead by one upon his entrance, Andrew Kittredge suffered his second loss, and his second blown save, giving up two hits, including a go-ahead three-run home run by Rhys Hoskins, and walked one during his two-thirds of the seventh. He’s given up at least a run in consecutive contests.

Hierarchy remains: Ryan Helsley | Andrew Kittredge | JoJo Romero

(RP | WSH): Suffering his second loss, Robert Garcia allowed two hits, including a go-ahead two-RBI double by Rafael Devers in the bottom of the eighth. He also walked one and struck out one in this outing.

Hierarchy remains: Kyle Finnegan | Hunter Harvey | Dylan Floro

Game Recaps – American League

Baltimore Orioles – Entering in the top of the 11th, Craig Kimbrel navigated around the 3-4-5 Arizona lineup pocket, and Corbin Carroll represented as the “place” runner, hitting a batter (Christian Walker) but recording a scoreless outing, resulting in his fourth win courtesy of a walk-off. He threw 11 pitches (63.6 Strike%) and induced one whiff with one strikeout. Danny Coulombe worked a scoreless tenth, striking out one. Yennier Cano turned in a scoreless ninth, walking one. He’s been scoreless over his last eight appearances.

Updated Hierarchy: *Craig Kimbrel | *Yennier Cano | *Danny Coulombe

Boston Red Sox – Shutting the door on his sixth save, and first since April 20, Kenley Jansen fired a clean ninth and recorded two strikeouts versus the Nationals. He threw 16 pitches (75 Strike%) and produced one whiff. He’s been scoreless in five of six outings with a 0.67 WHIP and 10 strikeouts versus one walk through six innings. Chris Martin collected his second win, retiring the side in the eighth ahead of his team’s rally in the bottom of the frame. Justin Slaten issued a walk and recorded two outs in the seventh.

Hierarchy remains: Kenley Jansen | Chris Martin | Justin Slaten

Chicago White Sox – Securing his first save of the season, and first since 2018, John Brebbia fired a clean top of the ninth against the Guardians’ 3-4-5 hitters. He threw 14 pitches (71.4 Strike%) and induced one whiff while recording a strikeout in his outing. Jared Shuster worked two scoreless frames, walking one and striking out two for his first hold. Tim Hill collected his first win, tossing 1.1 clean innings and striking out one. He also stranded a runner in the top of the fifth.

Hierarchy remains: Michael Kopech | John Brebbia | Jordan Leasure

Toronto Blue Jays – Capping a comeback, Jordan Romano secured his sixth save, working around a two-out double by Max Kepler with a game-ending pop-out. He threw 16 pitches (62.5 Strike%) and induced three whiffs (18.8 SwStr%) while striking out two. He owns a 1.38 WHIP with eight strikeouts through 8.2 innings. Yimi García made his first appearance since April 28, firing a clean eighth and striking out one for his fifth hold. Erik Swanson retired the side in the seventh, striking out one resulting in his first win. This represents his first clean outing inning of the season. Trevor Richards logged two clean frames, striking out two, keeping his team in the contest.

Hierarchy remains: Jordan Romano | Yimi García (HLR) | Erik Swanson

Game Recaps – National League

Arizona Diamondbacks – After taking over in the bottom of the tenth, Bryce Jarvis suffered his second loss, allowing a walk-off RBI single in the bottom of the 11th, scoring the “place runner”. He finished with an inning pitched, one hit allowed, an unearned run, and two walks (one intentional) while striking out one. Paul Sewald turned in a scoreless ninth, giving up a hit and intentionally walking Gunnar Henderson while striking out one. He threw 26 pitches (18 strikes – 69.2 Strike%) and induced two whiffs. Kevin Ginkel was tagged with his third blown save, serving up a game-tying solo home run by Anthony Santander in the eighth. Joe Mantiply retired the side in the seventh for his second hold. Ryan Thompson tossed 1.1 clean frames, striking out one and stranded a runner in the fifth.

Hierarchy remains: Paul Sewald | Kevin Ginkel | Ryan Thompson

Atlanta Braves – Not only did Raisel Iglesias spoil the combined no-hit bid, but he allowed a solo home run by J.D. Martinez, removing the chance at a shutout as well, during his non-save outing against the Mets. He threw 25 pitches (60 Strike%) and induced one whiff, giving up two hits, an earned run, and a walk while striking out one. He’s allowed a run in consecutive games and three of his last four. Joe Jiménez notched his ninth hold, walking two and striking out two in a scoreless eighth.

Hierarchy remains: Raisel Iglesias | A.J. Minter | Joe Jiménez

Milwaukee Brewers – Handed a two-run lead, Trevor Megill recorded two quick outs, then allowed an infield single, and an opposite-field single by Paul Goldschmidt before inducing a game-ending flyout by Nolan Arenado for his fourth save. He was not sharp throwing 19 pitches (12 strikes – 63.2 Strike%) without getting a whiff. He’s in the midst of a six-game scoreless streak with four strikeouts and a 0.50 WHIP over six innings. Bryan Hudson notched his fourth hold, yielding a hit and striking out two in a scoreless eighth. Hoby Milner collected his first win, giving up a hit and striking out one during a scoreless seventh.

Hierarchy remains: Trevor Megill | Joel Payamps | Elvis Peguero

Pittsburgh Pirates – Hanging on for his seventh save, David Bednar allowed a lead-off double, followed by a single, and a sacrifice fly, cutting the lead to one, but bore down and retired the last two batters. He threw 16 pitches (62.5 Strike%) and produced one whiff. His final line was two hits allowed and one earned run. He’s given up a run in four of his last six games but converted all three save chances. Hunter Stratton notched his second hold, firing a clean eighth and striking out one. Aroldis Chapman turned in a scoreless seventh, yielding a hit and a walk while striking out two for his eighth hold. Colin Holderman collected his first win, logging 1.1 scoreless innings, but issued three walks and let two of three inherited runners score in the fateful fifth inning:

Hierarchy remains: David Bednar | Aroldis Chapman | Colin Holderman

Vulture Save Options for Sunday, May 12

ATL: Iglesias has pitched in two straight games, which usually means a save chance for A.J. Minter if provided later today.

ARI: Sewald has not pitched on consecutive days, and he may if needed today. If the team does not use him, it’s a thin leverage ladder based on usage patterns. It could be one of the younger arms, either Joe Mantiply or Justin Martinez.

BAL: Also short in the bullpen, Kimbrel and Cano have pitched in two straight, placing Danny Coulombe or Jacob Webb on our radars based on how the lineup pockets proceed in the late innings for the save chance today.

BOS: Jansen has appeared on consecutive days, putting Chris Martin on the vulture save list for today’s action.

Vulture Save Options on Monday, May 13

HOU: If Hader pitches today, Ryan Pressly will be in line for the save on Monday.

MIL: Megill pitched on Saturday, and if he does again today, Joel Payamps will be in play for Monday’s save chance.

TBR: Back from the injured list, if Fairbanks pitches this afternoon, it should be Jason Adam for the vulture save on Monday.

TOR: Romano pitched on Saturday, so if he works again today, he will be off Monday. Monitor who sets up in their game, since the vulture save will depend on workloads in the leverage ladder.

Closer Monkey’s filthy pitch of the day was awarded to Jordan Romano‘s slider, courtesy of the Pitching Ninja.

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Steaming for Holds and SOLDS; Week 8

Given the volatility of high-leverage roles and performances, many prefer streaming relievers in leagues with separate categories for holds or those that combine saves plus holds (SOLDS). With this in mind, a snapshot, by league with their leverage trends in chart form.

American League Leverage Trends

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/3U0Dm/9/

AL Teams with 7 games in Week 8

  • Boston Red Sox: 4 vs. TBR; 3 @ STL
  • Houston Astros: 4 vs. OAK; 3 vs MIL
  • Oakland A’s: 4 @ HOU; 3 @ KCR
  • Tampa Bay Rays: 4 @ BOS; 3 @ TOR

National League Leverage Trends

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Bk2vG/8/

NL Teams with 7 Games in Week 8

  • Chicago Cubs: 3 @ ATL; 4 vs. PIT
  • Cincinnati Reds: 3 @ ARI; 4 @ LAD
  • Los Angeles Dodgers: 3 @ SFG; 4 vs. CIN
  • New York Mets: 2 vs. PHI; 2 @ PHI; 3 @ MIA
  • Philadelphia Phillies: 2 @ NYM; 2 vs. NYM; 3 vs. WSH
  • Pittsburgh Pirates: 3 @ MIL; 4 @ CHC

SOLDS (Saves plus Holds) Leaders Last 14 Days

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Z1EKq/6/

Holds Leaders Last 14 Days

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/mAABk/12/

Players of Interest for Week 8

  • Blake Treinen (LAD): Back from the injured list, he’s settled in as his team’s HLR (highest-leveraged reliever) and secured two holds with four strikeouts through three outings. He’s posted a 44.4 K-BB percentage in this limited sample with a 0.75 SIERA and 17.1 swinging strike percentage.
  • Hoby Milner (MIL): Recent results with upcoming match-ups may benefit this leverage southpaw. He’s been scoreless in 10 of his last 11 outings, allowing two unearned runs with 16 strikeouts against two walks over 11 innings. Against Houston next weekend, he will be a pivotal match-up component against Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez.
  • Ángel Zerpa (KCR): If your league uses pitcher designations, this left-handed reliever can be used as a starting pitcher or a reliever (SPARP). He’s recorded a hold in four of his last six appearances while giving up four hits with five strikeouts through 5.1 scoreless innings.

Relievers on the Rise

  • Luke Weaver (NYY): Riding an eight-game scoreless streak, he’s racked up 18 strikeouts versus one walk with four holds over 13.2 innings. He owns a minuscule 0.29 WHIP in this sample while posting a 37 K-BB percentage and 18.3 percent swinging strike rate.
  • Ryan Walker (SFG): He’s recorded two wins and two holds during a 10-game scoreless streak with 18 strikeouts against one walk (46.9 K-BB percentage) and a 0.40 WHIP.
  • Danny Coulombe (BAL): Benefiting from his team concept, the leverage southpaw reliever has been scoreless in seven of eight games while collecting a save and five holds.

Ancillary Save Options for Week 8

  • Baltimore: Danny Coulombe; Jacob Webb
  • Colorado: Jalen Beeks; Jake Bird
  • Minnesota: Caleb Thielbar; Griffin Jax

Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community. If playing in leagues with holds or SOLDS, check out our team page game recaps, which include full capsules for relievers, not just saves. Until next time, stay safe and be well.

Monkey Bytes, May 11: Match-up-based approaches continue for Baltimore and Minnesota, Hader secures his fifth, Game Recaps, and more

Friday night’s high-leverage events did not assuage fantasy players seeking clarity for saves in Baltimore and Minnesota. Craig Kimbrel worked a scoreless seventh for his third hold and Yennier Cano held on for his second save, though there’s no clear pathway toward a save right now in this leverage ladder. Rocco Baldelli deployed Jhoan Durán as his HLR, matching him up against Vlad Guerrero Jr. in the eighth, and using Griffin Jax in the ninth. It’s frustrating, imposing difficult decisions on fantasy managers.

For some good news, Josh Hader secured his fifth save, and second in as many days. In Friday’s 15-game slate, there were a total of 10 saves. You can find more details in our condensed and full recaps.

Closer CliffsNotes

American League

(RP | BAL): Benefiting from a different bullpen structure, Yennier Cano recorded his second save tossing a scoreless top of the ninth, navigating around a hit and striking out one while preserving a two-run win. 

(RP | BOS): Making his first appearance since May 5, Kenley Jansen recorded two quick outs via strikeout, then gave up a single by Eddie Rosario, walked Trey Lipscomb, uncorked a wild pitch which scored a run, and allowed an RBI single by Victor Robles before an inning-ending strikeout. He threw 22 pitches (63.6 Strike%) and generated six whiffs (27.3 SwStr%) while giving up two hits, two earned runs, and a walk.

Hierarchy remains: Kenley Jansen | Chris Martin | Justin Slaten

(RP | CWS): Not only did Jordan Leasure record his second save, he stranded the bases-loaded in the eighth and retired all four batters while preserving a three-run win.

(RP | DET): On paper, it seemed like a correct match-up, lining up Andrew Chafin against the top of the Astros lineup with two left-handed hitters in the 1-2-3 pocket. However, he allowed two hits and a walk before his removal, resulting in three earned runs, his first loss, and his second blown save. 

(RP | HOU): Closing out his fifth save, and his team’s rally in the top of the eighth, Josh Hader worked a scoreless ninth, issuing a walk and recording two strikeouts in Detroit.

(RP | KCR): Completing his team’s rally, John Schreiber secured his first save, working around a hit during a scoreless bottom of the ninth, preserving a one-run win over the Angels.

(RP | LAA): Handed a 1-0 lead in the top of the ninth, Carlos Estévez suffered his second loss, and third blown save, giving up three hits, including a go-ahead two-run home run. 

(RP | MIN): Taking over in the ninth, Griffin Jax recorded his fifth save despite allowing two hits and a walk while striking out one during a win in Toronto. 

(RP | NYY): Navigating around traffic, Clay Holmes finished a combined shutout, and held on for his 12th save, working around a hit and two walks while striking out three in Tampa Bay. 

(RP | SEA):  After taking over in the bottom of the fifth, Trent Thornton logged 1.1 scoreless frames, allowing two hits and striking out two resulting in his first win.

Hierarchy remains: Andrés Muñoz | Ryne Stanek | Gabe Speier

(RP | TEX): Grant Anderson was tagged with his first loss, and his first blown save, giving up a hit, two earned runs, and a walk with one strikeout during his combined inning of relief.

Hierarchy remains: Kirby Yates | David Robertson | José Leclerc

National League

(RP | ARI): In his team’s eventual loss, Justin Martinez turned in 1.2 scoreless frames, walking two and striking out five. He threw 27 pitches (66.7 Strike%) and generated six whiffs (22.2 SwStr%). He’s an intriguing reliever for those in dynasty formats.

Hierarchy remains: Paul Sewald | Kevin Ginkel | Ryan Thompson

(RP | ATL): Save number 10 on the season, and 200 in his career, secured by Raisel Iglesias. He did give up a walk and an earned run on an RBI single, but finished a two-run win over the Mets. 

(RP | CHC):  Taking over in the bottom of the fifth, Ben Brown collected his first win, stranding a runner and logging 3.2 scoreless frames, allowing two hits and a walk while striking out six. He threw 38 pitches (29 strikes – 76.3 Strike%) and generated 11 whiffs (28.9 SwStr%) in bulk relief.

Hierarchy remains: Héctor Neris | Mark Leiter Jr. | Yency Almonte

(RP | CIN): Recording his seventh save of the season, and first this month, Alexis Díaz allowed a walk and retired two via strikeout, preserving a two-run win over San Francisco. 

(RP | COL): Preserving a two-run win, Jalen Beeks recorded his second save, retiring the side in the top of the ninth against Texas.

(RP | LAD): Entering a tied game in the bottom of the ninth, Michael Grove allowed a lead-off double, and a one-out, walk-off RBI single resulting in his second loss.

Hierarchy remains: *Daniel Hudson | *Blake Treinen (HLR) | *Alex Vesia

*= closer-by-committee

(RP | MIL): Logging an extended outing, Kevin Herget recorded his first save, allowing three hits, including a solo home run by Nolan Gorman, two earned runs, and a walk over three innings, finishing a nine-run win over the Cardinals.

Hierarchy remains: Trevor Megill | Joel Payamps | Elvis Peguero

(RP | PHI):  Wrapping up a six-run win, José Alvarado fired a clean bottom of the ninth, striking out one in Miami. He threw 16 pitches (75 Strike%) and induced two whiffs (12.5 SwStr%). This marked his first outing since May 5, and he’s been scoreless in five of his last six games with six strikeouts versus zero walks over six innings.

Hierarchy remains: *José Alvarado | *Jeff Hoffman | Orion Kerkering

*= closer-by-committee

(RP | SDP): Taking over a tied game in the top of the ninth, Robert Suarez retired the side against the Dodgers, then collected his second win courtesy of a walk-off rally in the bottom of the frame. 

(RP | WSH): Operating like an HLR, Hunter Harvey tossed a scoreless bottom of the seventh against the 2-3-4 lineup pocket of Boston working around a hit with a double-play grounder and a strikeout resulting in his MLB-leading 13th hold. 

Hierarchy remains: Kyle Finnegan | Hunter Harvey | Dylan Floro

Game Recaps – American League

Baltimore Orioles – In an intriguing usage pattern, Yennier Cano notched his second save, working around a lead-off double by Gabriel Moreno by retiring the next three batters, including one strikeout, closing out a two-run win over Arizona. He threw 16 pitches (62.5 Strike%) and produced two whiffs (12.5 SwStr%). He’s recorded a save in two of three outings and owns a seven-game scoreless streak with five strikeouts versus two walks over 6.2 innings. Cionel Pérez stranded a runner while hitting a batter and retiring one in the eighth for his fourth hold. Jacob Webb walked one during two-thirds scoreless in the eighth, securing his third hold. Craig Kimbrel fired a clean seventh, striking out one on 12 pitches (66.7 Strike%) with one whiff, and some loud contact.

Updated Hierarchy: *Craig Kimbrel | *Yennier Cano | *Danny Coulombe

Chicago White Sox – Pressed into action in the eighth, Jordan Leasure inherited a bases-loaded situation, stranding all three runners by inducing an inning-ending flyout. He returned for the ninth and recorded his second save preserving a three-run win. He only needed 16 pitches (75 Strike%) with one whiff while retiring all four batters faced in this outing. He owns a 1.10 WHIP with 11 strikeouts over 16.1 innings during his rookie campaign.

Hierarchy remains: Michael Kopech | John Brebbia | Jordan Leasure

Detroit Tigers – Taking over the top of the eighth against the top of the Astros’ lineup with a one-run lead, Andrew Chafin allowed a lead-off single by Jose Altuve, walked Kyle Tucker, and a game-tying RBI single by Yordan Alvarez, prompting his removal. Jason Foley replaced him with runners on the corners, giving up a go-ahead RBI single by Jeremy Peña, inducing a fielder’s choice groundout, and another run scored on an error, followed by a sacrifice fly. Foley finished with a hit against and an unearned run. Chafin suffered his first loss, and third blown save, with two hits, three earned runs, and a walk on his ledger without recording an out.

Hierarchy remains: *Alex Lange | *Andrew Chafin | Jason Foley

*= closer-by-committee

Houston Astros – Capping his team’s come-from-behind rally, Josh Hader nailed down his fifth save, and third in May, tossing a scoreless bottom of the ninth, walking one and striking out two. He threw 17 pitches (58.8 Strike%) and generated four whiffs (23.5 SwStr%). After a slow start, he’s been scoreless in three of his last four with six strikeouts against one walk over 4.1 innings. Bryan Abreu notched his sixth hold, allowing a hit and striking out three in a scoreless eighth, throwing 13 pitches (10 strikes – 76.9 Strike%) with one whiff. He’s recorded multiple strikeouts in seven of his last eight games (18 strikeouts of 39 batters faced – 46.2 K%).

Hierarchy remains: Josh Hader | Ryan Pressly | Bryan Abreu

Kansas City Royals – Handed a one-run lead after a late rally, John Schreiber secured his first save, working around a one-out double by Matt Thaiss with consecutive groundouts, preserving the win. He threw 10 pitches (60 Strike%) without a whiff and has been scoreless in seven of eight games with two wins, this save, and five holds. Tyler Duffey collected his first win after tossing a clean bottom of the eighth. Will Smith turned in a clean seventh, recording one strikeout. Chris Stratton stranded two runners and retired both batters faced, one via strikeout in the sixth.

Hierarchy remains: James McArthur | John Schreiber | Chris Stratton

Los Angeles Angels – Entering with a 1-0 lead in the top of the ninth, Carlos Estévez suffered his second loss, and his third blown save, allowing three hits, including a go-ahead two-run home run by Adam Frazier. In this outing, he threw 21 pitches (13 strikes – 61.9 Strike%) without getting a whiff. Over his last seven appearances, he’s given up multiple runs in three, and at least a run in four, resulting in eight earned runs through 6.2 innings while converting three of six save chances. Luis García notched his fifth hold, tossing a clean eighth and striking out one. Matt Moore secured his eighth hold, navigating around a hit and a walk while striking out one in a scoreless seventh. Adam Cimber stranded two runners and retired his only batter via strikeout in the sixth, recording his third hold.

Hierarchy remains: Carlos Estévez | Matt Moore | Luis García

Minnesota Twins – Once again, Rocco Baldelli has assigned lineup pockets and not a linear pathway toward a save, continuing to frustrate fantasy managers. Griffin Jax held on for his fifth save, navigating around a two-out single by Bo Bichette, a walk, and an RBI single by Isiah Kiner-Falefa, before inducing a game-ending ricochet comebacker, caught by Carlos Santana. Jax threw 26 pitches (16 strikes – 61.5 Strike%) and produced four whiffs (15.4 SwStr%). Jhoan Durán faced the Vlad Guerrero Jr. lineup pocket and tossed a scoreless eighth despite walking one, throwing 13 pitches (6 strikes – 46.2 Strike%) with one whiff during his third hold.

Hierarchy remains: *Jhoan Durán (HLR/PSS) | *Griffin Jax | *Caleb Thielbar

*An HLR/PSS means he’s the preferred save option, but will be used in the highest-leverage moment in games when deemed necessary. 

New York Yankees – Despite loading the bases in the bottom of the ninth, Clay Holmes held on for his 12th save, preserving a combined shutout. His outing began with a lead-off walk, a strikeout, another walk, another strikeout, a single, and a game-ending strikeout. He threw 34 pitches (18 strikes – 52.9 Strike%) and induced four whiffs (11.8 SwStr%). However, he may need Saturday off because of the elevated pitch count. Luke Weaver recorded his fourth hold, firing a clean eighth and striking out two on 12 pitches (83.3 Strike%) with three whiffs (25 SwStr%). He owns an eight-game scoreless streak with 18 strikeouts versus one walk over 13.2 innings. Nick Burdi stranded a runner and retired his only batter-faced for his third hold.

Holmes has been rock solid, but the leverage ladder may be in flux, so the hierarchy may be adjusted this weekend. Stay tuned. 

Hierarchy remains (for now): Clay Holmes | Ian Hamilton | Victor González

Game Recaps – National League

Atlanta Braves – While recording his tenth save, Raisel Iglesias issued a one-out walk to Starling Marte, who moved to second base on defensive indifference, then scored on an RBI single by Pete Alonso, before a game-ending flyout. Iglesias threw 23 pitches (52.2 Strike%) and only induced one whiff. His final line was one hit allowed, one earned run, and one walk. He owns a 1.04 WHIP with a 10:4 K:BB over 15.1 innings. A.J. Minter fired a clean eighth, striking out the side for his fifth hold on 13 pitches (10 strikes – 76.9 Strike%) with six whiffs (46.2 SwStr%).

Hierarchy remains: Raisel Iglesias | A.J. Minter | Joe Jiménez

Cincinnati Reds -Shutting the door on his seventh save, Alexis Díaz issued a walk and recorded two strikeouts during a scoreless bottom of the ninth, entering against the 6-7-8 lineup pocket of the Giants. He threw 21 pitches (10 strikes – 47.6 Strike%) and induced four whiffs (19 SwStr%). This was his first outing since May 5 and his first save since April 27. Lucas Sims retired both batters faced in the eighth for his sixth hold. Justin Wilson tossed 1.1 scoreless innings, yielding a hit and striking out one for his third hold. Emilio Pagán notched his second hold, firing a clean sixth and striking out one.

Hierarchy remains: Alexis Díaz | Fernando Cruz | Lucas Sims

Colorado Rockies – Putting the bow on a late rally, Jalen Beeks secured his second save, retiring the 7-8-9 Rangers’ lineup pocket in the top of the ninth, preserving a two-run win. He threw nine pitches (4 strikes – 44.4 Strike%) without a whiff. He’s been scoreless in three of his last four and recorded a save in two of three outings. Jake Bird collected his first win, firing a clean eighth and striking out two. Justin Lawrence entered in the seventh with two runners on but let one score on a bases-loaded walk. He issued two walks and struck out one over one-third of the seventh, throwing 16 pitches (43.8 Strike%).

Updated Hierarchy: *Justin Lawrence | *Jake Bird | *Jalen Beeks

*= closer-by-committee

San Diego Padres –  Benefiting from a walk-off rally in the bottom of the ninth, Robert Suarez collected his second win of the season after retiring the side in the top of the inning while facing the Dodgers’ 6-7-8 lineup pocket. He threw 13 pitches (8 strikes – 61.5 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (23.1 SwStr%). He extended his scoreless streak to 14 games, spanning 15 innings, converting all 10 save chances with a 12:4 K:BB and 0.60 WHIP. Yuki Matsui was tagged with his second blown save, allowing two hits and an earned run on a sacrifice fly, tying the game, matching up with the top of the lineup. His final line was two hits, an earned run, and an intentional walk (Will Smith) on 11 pitches (72.7 Strike%) with one whiff.

Hierarchy remains: Robert Suarez | Yuki Matsui | Enyel De Los Santos

Vulture Save Candidates for Saturday, May 11

COL: Only for the desperate, but Beeks has appeared in two straight, leaving Jake Bird or Justin Lawrence for the save chance in today’s match-up with Texas.

HOU: Hader and Abreu have pitched in two straight, opening the door for an ancillary save by Ryan Pressly.

LAA: Estévez and García have appeared in three of the last four days, which may yield a save chance for Adam Cimber or Hunter Strickland, leaning toward Strickland.

MIN: Based on recent patterns, and Jax throwing 26 pitches last night, if Durán does not face Vlad Jr. in the ninth, it will be Caleb Thielbar or Cole Sands for the save chance. Sands was warming last night when Jax had traffic on the bases.

NYY: Holmes secured the save last night while throwing 34 pitches, so he should be unavailable today. Weaver has worked in two straight, so it could be Caleb Ferguson or Ian Hamilton, though Victor González has two ancillary saves already this year.

Vulture Save Candidates for Sunday, May 12

First, see the relievers who pitched on Friday night, and if they appear again today, get the next reliever in the hierarchy for Sunday.

BAL: If they use Cano and Kimbrel again today, it lines up Danny Coulombe or Jacob Webb for Sunday.

SDP: Suarez has pitched in two of the last three, and if he appears again on Saturday he will be down on Sunday leaving a potential save chance for Enyel De Los Santos.

Closer Monkey’s filthy outing of the day goes to Blake Treinen while facing the Padres, video courtesy of the Pitching Ninja.

Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community, stay safe and be well.

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