Under the Hood: What’s going on with David Bednar and Héctor Neris

Life, like underlying data, can be tricky. Although time did not allow itself last week, it’s time for another Under the Hood session featuring two relievers in the National League Central. Acknowledging ERA can be a fluky statistic, lets post some surface numbers for the two relievers:

  • Reliever A: 17 games, 19:5 K:BB, 1.53 WHIP
  • Reliever B: 16 games, 13:14 K:BB, 1.80 WHIP

Which one owns the lower ERA? As one can assume, it’s Reliever B, Héctor Neris. Despite his inflated WHIP, he’s posted a 3.00 ERA through 15 innings this season. Reliever A, David Bednar has a 9.00 ERA even though he allows less contact, throws more strikes, and induces more whiffs. Using season-to-date results, each reliever’s outcomes, and outlook will be explored in today’s post.

David Bednar, Pittsburgh Pirates

It’s tough not rooting for the “Renegade“. He’s a hometown talent playing in front of friends and family. However, he missed most of the spring with a latissimus dorsi issue and had a rough start to his season. Fantasy managers assumed with more repetitions that Bednar would find past form, which can still happen.

Seeing his current ERA, and his 3.03 SIERA, a metric on Fangraphs that predicts in-season ERA better than other ones such as FIP, one envisions him as a potential buy low from a fantasy perspective. But he must improve his results, especially in contact allowed and with his four-seam fastball placement.

Beginning with his contact trends this season, he’s produced a career-worst 30.4 percent line drive rate, fueling a disparity in his quality of contact:

  • 2.2 pop-up percentage plus 4.3 percent weak contact = 6.5 percent poor contact-induced
  • 8.7 solid contact percentage plus a 13 percent barrel rate = 21.7 good contact allowed

As a comparison, here’s his heatmap from Statcast with his pitches this year:

However, on hits this season, one notices most are on fastballs at the middle or bottom third of the strike zone:

Location may play a part in his early struggles, but when viewing his splits-by-pitch this year versus past results, the fastball results jump off the chart:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/J2Lfr/2/

One would think he would throw more of his secondary pitches, but he’s increased his four-seam use early on this year:

Hope lies in improved results with the curve, which has suffered a steep drop in swinging strike percentage in 2024. Delving into his leverage trends, there are no major differences, which may mean better outcomes lie in the offing:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/rwSLw/3/

It’s tough giving up on a closer like Bednar, especially when he’s produced a 19.4 K-BB percentage with a 65.4 strike percentage and a 72.9 percent contact rate allowed. Monitor his results over the next two weeks closely, especially the curve, and hope this will be a small sample fantasy players forget about as the year progresses.

Héctor Neris, Chicago Cubs

It’s been a running joke in the game recaps, but he’s been the “Teflon” man during high-leverage events. He’s logged 16 appearances this year with one clean outing. He’s issued at least a walk during 10 games, and multiple walks in three.

He’s staved off trouble by increasing his ground ball percentage, currently at a career-best 54.8 percent. Despite the high volume of traffic on the bases in his outings, he’s only induced one groundball double play out of 22 opportunities. Like Bednar, he’s not performed great in terms of quality of contact, but it does not have as large of a disparity:

  • 2.4 pop-up percentage plus a 9.5 percent weak contact rate = 11.9 percent poor contact-induced
  • 7.1 solid percentage plus an 11.9 percent barrel rate = 18.9 percent good contact allowed

Leaning into his split-finger fastball has helped him avoid implosions:

But, when diving into his splits by pitch this year compared with past results, there are some eye-opening numbers:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/juCNv/1/

Taking this step further, his leverage trends in this updated chart:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ZmOLj/3/

One cannot refute Neris being a valuable component of Chicago’s leverage ladder, but it’s tough staving off this much pending migration, especially with a negative K-BB percentage. He’s relied on and produced results with the split-finger fastball, but he will be forced to adjust if hitters lay off this pitch moving forward. It will be intriguing to see how he performs through the end of May, and into June. Note his 5.75 SIERA entering his next appearance.

Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community. Stay safe and be well.

Statistical Credits:

Baseball-Reference.com

Fangrapghs.com

Monkey Bytes, May 13: Jansen eschews workload management, Beeks records his third save, Durán in HLR purgatory, Game Recaps, and more

Once again, Sunday only provided five saves among its 15 contests, with some intriguing usage patterns. Kenley Jansen appeared for a third straight game, a rarity in the world of workload management. Jalen Beeks has emerged as the preferred save share for the Rockies, closing out a sweep of the defending World Champion Rangers.

Even in a non-save situation, Rocco Baldelli frustrates fantasy players, using Jhoan Durán in the ninth with a four-run lead, using him against Vlad Guerrero Jr.’s lineup pocket. With the Yankees and Guardians on tap this week, one anticipates this continues with the “Durántula” facing Aaron Judge and José Ramírez in the highest leveraged moments in their respective series.

Our condensed and full recaps cover all the high-leverage events of interest from Sunday’s slate.

Closer CliffsNotes

American League

(RP | BOS): Logging a third straight appearance, Kenley Jansen recorded his seventh save, navigating around a one-out hit for a scoreless ninth, preserving a one-run over the Nationals. 

(RP | DET): Rough outing alert for Alex Lange, and when he melts down, fantasy players know it. His final line was five hits against, four earned runs, and two walks over two-thirds combined innings. He threw 27 pitches (15 strikes – 55.6 Strike%) with two whiffs. His WHIP rose from 1.14 to 1.57 as a result.

Hierarchy remains (for now): *Alex Lange | *Andrew Chafin | *Jason Foley

*= closer-by-committee

(RP | KCR): Despite serving up a solo home run in the bottom of the ninth, James McArthur recorded his ninth save, finishing a 4-2 win over the Angels.

(RP | MIN): Remaining on brand, Rocco Baldelli called upon Jhoan Durán with Vlad Guerrero Jr.’s lineup pocket due in the ninth, however, it was a non-save outing. He turned in a scoreless outing despite hitting a batter (Bo Bichette), throwing 14 pitches (50 Strike%), and inducing one whiff. He’s been scoreless over seven appearances this season with eight strikeouts versus one walk over seven innings.

Hierarchy remains: *Jhoan Durán (HLR/PSS) | *Griffin Jax | *Caleb Thielbar

*An HLR/PSS means he’s the preferred save option, but will be used in the highest-leverage moment in games when deemed necessary. 

(RP | NYY): Emerging as a high-leverage impact reliever, Luke Weaver let one of three inherited runners score on a hit-by-pitch, but recorded 1.2 scoreless frames, keeping his team ahead and securing his fight hold. He’s amid a nine-game scoreless streak with 20 strikeouts versus one walk over 15.1 innings and a 0.26 WHIP.

Adjusted Hierarchy: Clay Holmes | Luke Weaver | Victor González

(RP | SEA): Wrapping up an 8-4 win, in a non-save outing, Andrés Muñoz retired the side in the top of the ninth against Oakland. He threw nine pitches (55.6 Strike%) without a whiff. This marked his first appearance since May 7 and extended his scoreless streak to seven games, spanning, eight innings and posting seven strikeouts versus one walk with a 0.38 WHIP. He’s converted three saves and collected a win during this stretch.

Hierarchy remains: Andrés Muñoz | Ryne Stanek | Gabe Speier

(RP | TOR): Appearing on consecutive days did not go well for Erik Swanson, he allowed two hits, two earned runs, and a walk while striking out one in the top of the eighth. In his last seven outings, he’s allowed at least a run in five resulting in nine earned runs through these five innings.

Hierarchy remains (for now): Jordan Romano | Yimi García (HLR) | Erik Swanson

National League

(RP | ATL): Providing his teammates rest, A.J. Minter received the ancillary save chance, but suffered his third loss, and his third blown save, giving up two hits, including a walk-off, two-run home run by Brandon Nimmo. 

Hierarchy remains: Raisel Iglesias | A.J. Minter | Joe Jiménez

(RP | CHC): Hanging on for his fourth save, Adbert Alzolay allowed a hit, two runs (one earned), and a walk while closing out a one-run win in the bottom of the tenth. 

(RP | CIN): Although he did not finish the bottom of the tenth, Emilio Pagán suffered his third loss when the “place” runner scored on a walk-off hit allowed by Lucas Sims. 

(RP | COL): Securing his third save, and a sweep against Texas, Jalen Beeks worked around two hits for a scoreless top of the ninth, preserving a two-run win.

(RP | MIA): Escaping with a scoreless top of the tenth, Anthony Bender collected his first win courtesy of a walk-off rally in the bottom of the inning. 

(RP | NYM): Keeping his team within one run, Edwin Díaz fired a clean top of the ninth, striking out one. He collected his first win courtesy of a walk-off, two-run home run by teammate Brandon Nimmo in the bottom of the inning. 

(RP | PHI): Taking over in the bottom of the tenth, Gregory Soto was tagged with his first loss, giving up a walk-off single by Emmanuel Rivera without recording an out. 

(RP | PIT): Taking over in the top of the tenth, Aroldis Chapman suffered his third loss, allowing three hits, three runs (one earned), and two walks over two-thirds of the inning. 

(RP | SDP): Preserving a combined shutout, Robert Suarez fired a scoreless top of the ninth, recording a strikeout against the Dodgers’ 3-4-5-6 hitters, Teoscar Hernández reached on a fielding error by Xander Bogaerts. Suarez threw 22 pitches (16 strikes – 72.7 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (13.6 SwStr%). He owns a 15-game scoreless streak with 13 strikeouts against four walks with a 0.56 WHIP over 16 innings.

Adjusted Hierarchy: Robert Suarez | Yuki Matsui | Wandy Peralta

(RP | SFG): Benefiting from a walk-off rally, Luke Jackson collected his first win after tossing a scoreless top of the tenth, walking one and striking out two against the Reds.

(RP | STL): Locking down his 12th save, Ryan Helsley fired a clean bottom of the ninth, striking out two while preserving a one-run win in Milwaukee. 

Game Recaps – American League

Boston Red Sox – Workload management be damned, Kenley Jansen secured his seventh save, tossing a scoreless ninth, working around a one-out single by Nick Senzel with a flyout and a game-ending caught stealing. This marked his third straight appearance. He threw 14 pitches (8 strikes – 57.1 Strike%) without a whiff. He’s been scoreless in six of his last seven, converting all three save chances with 10 strikeouts versus one walk over seven innings. Chris Martin fired a clean eighth, striking out one for his fifth hold.

Hierarchy remains: Kenley Jansen | Chris Martin | Justin Slaten

Kansas City Royals – Taking the baton from starter Seth Lugo, James McArthur notched his ninth save despite giving up a solo home run (Willie Calhoun). It’s been a rough patch, but he’s converted nine of 12 save opportunities this year. However, he’s also allowed at least a run during three of his last four appearances (six runs, five earned) over 4.2 innings.

Hierarchy remains: James McArthur | John Schreiber | Chris Stratton

Game Recaps – National League

Chicago Cubs – Handed a three-run lead in the bottom of the tenth, Adbert Alzolay held on for his fourth save, serving up a home run by Connor Joe, and issuing a walk before inducing a groundout, a flyout, and a gam-ending lineout. His final line, was one hit allowed, two runs (one earned), and a walk. Héctor Neris collected his third win, navigating around two hits and a walk while striking out one in a scoreless bottom of the ninth. It’s like he’s the “Teflon” man of high-leverage relievers, staving off his underlying metrics with scoreless outings. Mark Leiter Jr. fired 1.2 clean frames, striking out two.

Hierarchy remains: Héctor Neris | Mark Leiter Jr. | Yency Almonte

Cincinnati Reds – Facing three batters in the top of the tenth, Emilio Pagán recorded two outs while walking one and striking out one. However, he was tagged with his third loss when the “place” runner after his removal. Lucas Sims took over with two outs and gave up a walk-off hit by Casey Schmitt, scoring one of his two inherited runners. Alexis Díaz tossed a scoreless bottom of the ninth while walking one. He threw 18 pitches (66.7 Strike%) without a whiff. Fernando Cruz fired a clean eighth, striking out two on 14 pitches (71.4 Strike%) with two whiffs (14.3 SwStr%).

Hierarchy remains: Alexis Díaz | Fernando Cruz | Lucas Sims

Colorado Rockies – Closing out a sweep of Texas, Jalen Beeks recorded his third save, navigating around two hits for a scoreless ninth, preserving a 3-1 win. He threw 20 pitches (75 Strike%) and induced one whiff. He’s converted a save in three of his last four outings and five straight games-finished. Tyler Kinley notched his second hold, walking one during a scoreless eighth. Victor Vodnik logged two scoreless frames, allowing a walk and striking out one for his first hold.

Updated Hierarchy: *Jalen Beeks | *Justin Lawrence (HLR) | Jake Bird

*= closer-by-committee

Miami Marlins – After navigating around two walks, one intentional (Bryce Harper), Anthony Bender collected his first win with a scoreless top of the tenth. He threw 23 pitches (14 strikes – 60.9 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (13 SwStr%) while striking out one. Tanner Scott tossed two scoreless frames, allowing two walks and striking out one on 39 pitches (21 strikes – 53.8 Strike%) with five whiffs (12.8 SwStr%). Calvin Faucher retired the side in the seventh. Andrew Nardi let both inherited runners score in the sixth, and an earned run on his ledger, giving up a two-RBI triple and a sacrifice fly during his two-thirds of an inning.

Updated Hierarchy: Tanner Scott | Andrew Nardi | Anthony Bender

New York Mets – With his team down on in the top of the ninth, Edwin Díaz retired the 9-1-2 Atlanta hitters in order while striking out one. After a walk-off rally, he collected his first win. He threw 14 pitches (11 strikes – 78.6 Strike%) and induced one whiff. Jake Diekman stranded a runner despite walking one over two-thirds scoreless in the eighth. Adam Ottavino allowed a hit, an earned run, and a walk during his one-third of the eighth. Reed Garrett logged two scoreless frames, yielding a hit and a walk while striking out three

Hierarchy remains: Edwin Díaz | Adam Ottavino | Reed Garrett

Philadelphia Phillies – Suffering his first loss, Gregory Soto issued an intentional walk in the bottom of the tenth, then gave up a walk-off, RBI single by Emmanuel Rivera. Jeff Hoffman worked a scoreless ninth, walking one and striking out one, keeping the game tied. Matt Strahm fired a clean eighth, striking out the side on 20 pitches (65 Strike%) and producing two whiffs. José Alvarado retired the side in the seventh, facing the Marlins’ 3-4-5 batters. Spencer Turnbull tossed a scoreless sixth, yielding a hit and striking out two. Orion Kerkering turned in a clean fifth, striking out one.

Hierarchy remains: *José Alvarado | *Jeff Hoffman | Orion Kerkering

*= closer-by-committee

Pittsburgh Pirates – Another late-inning meltdown cost the Pirates, this time by Aroldis Chapman. He took over the top of the tenth and allowed an RBI single by Cody Bellinger, scoring the “place” runner, with Bellinger getting thrown out at second. After a flyout, things went awry. Patrick Wisdom homered, followed by a Mike Tauchman walk, and a single. Chapman left with the bases loaded and was charged with two unearned runs after a passed ball let the third run score. His final line was three hits allowed, three runs (one earned), and two walks, resulting in his third loss. Kyle Nicolas let one of three inherited runners score and recorded one out in the tenth. David Bednar worked a scoreless ninth, giving up a hit and a walk while striking out one.

Hierarchy remains: David Bednar | Aroldis Chapman | Colin Holderman

San Francisco Giants – Recording a scoreless top of the tenth resulted in Luke Jackson collecting his first win. He issued a walk and struck out two while stranding the “place” runner. Camilo Doval kept the game tied, stranding a runner in the eighth and logging 1.1 scoreless frames, walking one and striking out two. He threw 23 pitches (13 strikes – 56.5 Strike%) and induced three whiffs (13 SwStr%). Ryan Walker struggled, he let an inherited runner score in the seventh and gave up four hits, including a home run during his combined inning of relief, handing him his first blown save. 

Hierarchy remains: Camilo Doval | Tyler Rogers | Ryan Walker

St. Louis Cardinals – Displaying no signs of rust, Ryan Helsley fired a clean bottom of the ninth, recording two strikeouts while preserving a one-run win over Milwaukee for his 12th save. He threw 12 pitches (83.3 Strike%) and three whiffs (25 SwStr%). He last appeared on May 4 and secured his last save on May 3, but this outing extended his scoreless streak to 13 games, spanning 13 innings with 16 strikeouts against one walk. Andrew Kittredge notched his 11th hold, retiring both batters faced, one via strikeout. JoJo Romero recorded his 13th hold, allowing a hit and striking out two over 1.1 scoreless frames.

Hierarchy remains: Ryan Helsley | Andrew Kittredge | JoJo Romero

Vulture Save Options for Monday, May 13

BOS: Jansen’s appeared in three straight and Martin on consecutive days. Justin Slaten could record a multi-inning save or Greg Weissert may receive the save chance if Slaten pitches the seventh and eighth innings.

COL: Beeks has pitched in three of the last four, opening the door for a Justin Lawrence save, if provided.

MIA: Scott threw 39 pitches over two innings on Sunday, which places Anthony Bender in line for the vulture save today.

PIT: Bednar and Chapman worked both games this weekend, putting Colin Holderman atop the hierarchy in tonight’s contest.

Vulture Save Options for Tuesday, May 14

CHC: If Neris pitches again on Monday, look for Yency Almonte on Tuesday, unless they give Leiter Jr. an off day, this would slot him into the vulture spot.

CIN: If Díaz pitches tonight, it will be two in a row, and the leverage ladder has been worked heavily, which means an off-the-radar chance could fall upon Buck Farmer.

KCR: If McArthur pitches on Monday, John Schreiber would be in line for Tuesday’s vulture save.

NYM: If their Díaz pitches today, it will be consecutive outings, which may yield a Reed Garrett save chance on Tuesday.

SFG: If Doval pitches on Monday, Tyler Rogers may receive the save chance on Tuesday.

Closer Monkey’s filthy pitch of the day, these sliders by Ryan Helsley, provided by the Pitching Ninja.

Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community, stay safe and be well.

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