Month in Review for Relievers: Results of Interest and Trends through the End of April

Remembering the sample size this season remains small, with only a month-plus of results in the rearview mirror, it helps to review how relievers performed, which will be the process for today’s post. Using underlying metrics and hard statistical data, we try to remain ahead of the curve in the ever-changing world of high-leverage events.

Team Saves

  • 2024: 248 saves recorded between March and April
  • 2023: 210 saves recorded between March and April

Blown Saves

  • 2024: 132 blown saves between March and April
  • 2023: 118 blown saves between March and April

Save Opportunities

  • 2024: 380 save chances between March and April
  • 2023: 328 save chances between March and April

As one can observe, there’s been more saves recorded, and save opportunities provided, over the first month-plus of this season compared with last year’s results. This coincides with offense on the decline, illustrated by runs scored:

  • 2024: 3,408 runs scored between March and April
  • 2023: 3, 744 runs scored between March and April

Before delving into individual performances, there’s a small difference between the numbers of pitchers recording at least one save with 72 through the end of April this year and 69 with one through this same timeframe last season. Despite the rise in save chances, the distribution has remained mostly stable.

Individual Results and Trends

At the end of April, there were four relievers with at least eight saves without suffering a blown one:

  • Robert Suarez (SDP) – 10 saves
  • Jason Foley (DET) – 9 saves
  • Mason Miller (OAK) – 8 saves
  • Evan Phillips (LAD) – 8 saves

Not only has Miller been terrific as his team’s closer, he’s also the only qualified reliever at the end of April with a K-BB percentage greater than 20, a swinging strike rate above 15 percent, a strike percentage over 65 percent, and a contact rate allowed below 65 percent. He finished with a 47.1 K-BB percentage, a 22.4 swinging strike percentage, a 68.7 strike percentage, and a 58.4 percent contact rate allowed, just dominant.

These relievers qualified for three of the four categories described above:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/tRu81/7/

Shifting gears, here were the SOLDS (saves plus holds) at the conclusion of April:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/wXS38/8/

These relievers have the most SOLDS without suffering a blown save, knock on wood:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/hMCId/1/

For those who play in leagues with holds as a separate category, here are the leaders from March and April in them:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/VI04i/1/

Two key indicators for sustained success by relievers are K-BB percentage and swinging strike rate. Leaders from each category are as follows:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Lpx9L/1/

Strikeouts and WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched) should also be monitored closely by fantasy managers. Here are the leaders in these categories during the first month-plus this season:

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Lpx9L/1/

It’s been a great first-month providing information for the Closer Monkey community. More volatility lies on the horizon, so stay safe and be well until these situations arise.

Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

Baseball-Reference.com

Monkey Bytes, May 3: Doval records his sixth save, Game Recaps, and What to Watch For

Given the small six-game slate from Thursday yielding one save, today’s Monkey Bytes will follow a different format, combining both leagues into one recap.

Closer CliffsNotes from May 2

(RP | BAL): Entering in the top of the fifth, Keegan Akin stranded two runners, and collected his first win while tossing 1.1 innings, giving up a solo home run (Gleyber Torres) and a walk in his outing.

(RP | CHC): Allowing a walk-off, two-RBI double by Francisco Lindor, Daniel Palencia suffered his first loss of the season. 

(RP | COL): Despite recording three strikeouts over two combined innings, Justin Lawrence suffered his first loss when the “place” runner scored on a walk-off single in the bottom the tenth, scoring as an inherited runner.

(RP| MIA): Collecting his first win via a walk-off rally, Burch Smith retired the side in the top of the tenth while striking out two against the Rockies. 

(RP | NYM): A walk-off rally in the bottom of the 11th provided Danny Young with his first win of the season, and his MLB career. 

(RP | SFG): Securing his sixth save, Camilo Doval fired a clean bottom of the ninth in Boston, recording one strikeout.

Game Recaps from May 2

Baltimore Orioles – During an eventual 7-2 victory over the Yankees, Keegan Akin stranded two runners, and collected his first win while tossing 1.1 innings, giving up a solo home run (Gleyber Torres) and a walk in his outing. Danny Coulombe recorded two outs, yielding a hit and striking out one over two-thirds scoreless. Jacob Webb fired 1.1 clean frames, striking out three on 13 pitches (84.6 Strike%) and producing four whiffs (30.8 SwStr%). Cionel Pérez tossed a clean ninth, closing a five-run win, and recorded two strikeouts.

Hierarchy remains (for now): Craig Kimbrel | Yennier Cano | Danny Coulombe

Chicago Cubs – Suffering his first loss, Daniel Palencia tossed a clean bottom of the tenth, but in the 11th he hit Harrison Bader with a pitch, then gave up a walk-off, two-RBI double by Francisco Lindor. Héctor Neris fired a clean bottom of the ninth, striking out one on 11 pitches (72.7 Strike%) and inducing two whiffs (18.2 SwStr%). This marked his first clean outing of the season. Yency Almonte retired the side in the eighth. Richard Lovelady was tagged with his first blown save, letting his only inherited runner score while giving up two hits and striking out two over 1.1 scoreless innings. Keegan Thompson allowed two hits, and three runs (one earned) while recording two strikeouts during his combined inning of relief.

Hierarchy remains: Héctor Neris | Mark Leiter Jr. | Adbert Alzolay

Colorado Rockies – Taking over with a runner on, and one out, Jalen Beeks let the game-winning run score on a walk-off, RBI single by Jesús Luzárdo in the bottom of the tenth, letting his only inherited runner score. Beeks also issued a walk and retired one during his appearance. Justin Lawrence suffered his second loss, allowing an unearned run and striking out three over two combined innings. He threw 22 pitches (15 strikes – 68.2 Strike%) and produced three whiffs (13.6 SwStr%). Ty Blach logged four scoreless frames as the “bulk follower”, scattering three hits and striking out two.

After the game, the team placed Lawrence on paternity leave, he could be activated later this weekend.

Updated hierarchy: Justin Lawrence | Jake Bird / Jalen Beeks

Miami Marlins – Benefiting from a walk-off in the bottom of the tenth, Burch Smith collected his first win of the season, firing a clean top of the frame while striking out two. He’s been scoreless in six of his last seven outings. Anthony Maldonado navigated around two hits and a walk while striking out one in a scoreless ninth. He threw 19 pitches (11 strikes – 57.9 Strike%) and generated five whiffs (26.3 SwStr%) keeping the game tied. Anthony Bender worked a scoreless eighth, walking one and striking out one. Andrew Nardi fired a clean seventh, striking out two on nine pitches (88.8 Strike%) with three whiffs (33.3 SwStr%).

Hierarchy remains: Tanner Scott | Andrew Nardi | Anthony Maldonado

New York Mets – Even though he allowed an unearned run in the top of the 11th, Danny Young collected his first win of the season, and his MLB career, when his teammates provided a walk-off rally in the bottom of the frame. He gave up two hits and a walk while striking out one. Edwin Díaz fired two clean innings, recording two strikeouts. He threw 24 pitches (54.2 Strike%) and produced three whiffs. This marked the ninth time in his career he’s pitched at least two innings, and the first since August 4, 2022. Reed Garrett turned in a scoreless eighth, giving up a hit and a walk. Jake Diekman tossed a scoreless seventh, walking one and striking out two. Dedniel Núñez allowed two hits and an earned run while striking out one in the sixth.

Hierarchy remains: Edwin Díaz | Adam Ottavino | Reed Garrett

San Francisco Giants – Shutting the door on his sixth save, Camilo Doval fired a clean bottom of the ninth, striking out one against the 6-7-8 Red Sox hitters. He threw 14 pitches (11 strikes – 78.6 Strike%) and induced four whiffs (28.6 SwStr%). He owns a 1.29 WHIP with 15 strikeouts versus six walks over 11.2 innings. Tyler Rogers notched his sixth hold, tossing a clean eighth and striking out one. Erik Miller worked a clean seventh, striking out one for his fourth hold. Ryan Walker collected his fourth win, giving up a hit and striking out one in a scoreless sixth.

Hierarchy remains: Camilo Doval | Tyler Rogers | Ryan Walker

What to Watch For (Weekend Edition)

American League

BAL: When does Craig Kimbrel return and how does he fare in his next save chance?

BOS: Will Kenley Jansen record his first save since April 20?

CWS: Does Pedro Grifol start formulating a stable high-leverage structure?

DET: Will A.J. Hinch keep playing match-ups in the late innings or does Jason Foley remain the primary save share?

LAA: How does Carlos Estévez respond to two blown saves over his last four opportunities?

TBR: Can Jason Adam emerge as the preferred save option with Pete Fairbanks sidelined?

National League

ARI: Any updates on the status or timeline for Paul Sewald?

CHC: Did Héctor Neris become his team’s ride-or-die in the ninth inning? Can he remain averse from regression toward the mean?

MIA: A new month hopefully means Tanner Scott can build his trade stock with a strong performance, if not, who emerges as an option for saves?

MIL: Will Joel Payamps and Trevor Megill keep sharing save chances or can one emerge as the preferred option? Will there be any updates on the rehab status for Devin Williams?

PHI: The “floating closer” concept lives on, who rules the weekend for save chances?

PIT: Will the real David Bednar please stand up, please stand up?

Vulture Save Options for Friday, May 3

CHC: Neris has pitched in three of the last four days, putting Mark Leiter Jr. or, gulp, Adbert Alzolay in line for a save chance this afternoon.

NYM: “Sugar” Díaz logged a two-inning outing, and even though Adam Ottavino’s on a heater, the team has used him as the HLR in these sorts of games while Jorge López receives the ancillary save chances.

Closer Monkey’s filthy outing of the day goes to Edwin Díaz, including these two strikeouts in the ninth inning, courtesy of the Pitching Ninja.

Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community, stay safe and be well.

Please consider becoming a premium subscriber for a one-time $20 donation to the site, featuring full-text emails with charts, column blurbs, and ad-free analysis.