This week’s Under the Hood will delve into two relievers on divergent paths based on early returns. These may not stick, but assessing how a closer performs early on helps set a baseline of expectations for the remainder of the season.
Alexis Díaz, Cincinnati Reds
Acknowledging it’s a small sample size, he owns a 1.50 WHIP with seven strikeouts against five walks while converting two of his first three save chances. His current 6.00 ERA accompanies a 4.71 SIERA, which hints at some bad luck, along with some skepticism. Fantasy players gave him a pass during the second half last year based on fatigue caused by heavy early season usage patterns.
However, as the sample size increases, can he recapture past form? Using K-BB percentage, WHIP, and strike percentage as a guide, here are his splits by month since the start of last year:
Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Vb2XD/1/
A pattern has emerged since August, with a steep decline in his K-BB percentage tethered to his reduced strike percentages. Creating more traffic during high-leverage events does not help a closer’s portfolio. Taking this a step further, issuing more walks has also made him throw more pitches per plate appearance early on this season:
Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Mvj73/4/
As this chart displays, he’s allowing more contact, generating a lower K-BB percentage, and throwing fewer pitches in the strike zone. Working behind in counts with reduced velocity can be a recipe for disaster:
Putting all of this together, here’s his rolling 10-game chart courtesy of Fangraphs illustrating his O-Swing (outside the strike zone), contact rate allowed, swinging strike percentage, and first-pitch (F-Strike%) since 2022:
One should not panic but should monitor Díaz’s results moving forward. It’s a fine line in save situations giving up increased contact with fewer whiffs and walk rates on the rise. Those with deep rosters or bench space may try stashing Fernando Cruz in case these issues continue.
Mason Miller, Oakland A’s
On the other end of the spectrum, Miller has been dominant as a closer in recent outings. He’s posted a 2.25 ERA with a 1.66 SIERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 15 strikeouts against three walks (36.4 K-BB percentage) through his first eight innings. He’s also been elite in depressing contact, recording a minuscule 57.6 percent contact rate allowed while producing a robust 20.1 swinging strike percentage.
He owns a 19 percent swinging strike rate with his four-seam fastball and a 25.9 swinging strike percentage with the slider. He also leads the majors in pitches thrown over 101 m.p.h.:
He’s averaging 100.6 m.p.h. with his four-seam, which cannot be ignored. He’s in attack mode as a high-leverage force, owning a 66.9 strike percentage, which enables his dominant outings. Yes, the league will adjust, and he will run into some adversity. He also will not be pitching on consecutive days, which may depress his save total, but not his value from a fantasy perspective. Using my SGP (Standings Gain Points) formula, think of it as an in-season player rater, he ranks 19th among his peers entering game play on Monday, April 15.
As far as his early season rankings, among qualified relievers:
- Tied for first in strikeouts with 15
- Third in swinging strike percentage
- Third in contact rate allowed
- Tied for 14th in K-BB percentage
- 16th in SIERA
His team situation may not be ideal, but he’s worth watching in the ninth inning alone based on his early returns. Injuries may make many feel he’s a sell-high candidate, but those who took a chance on him are enjoying “Miller time”.
Until next time, stay safe and be well.
Statistical Credits:
- Fangraphs.com
- Baseball-Reference.com
- BaseballSavant.com
- BrooksBaseball.net
