With a new scoring period on the horizon, taking a look at underlying data by struggling relievers may provide an idea of how long their proverbial leash may be. Our first installment will feature two closers struggling with their command after the first week and a half of games.
José Leclerc, Texas Rangers
After anchoring his bullpen during its championship run last year, Leclerc had to earn the ninth inning during Spring Training. He struggled in early outings but earned the trust of Bruce Bochy based on his results from the second half through the playoffs in 2023. However, it’s not translated early on this season.
He’s suffered a loss and recorded a save with two strikeouts versus five walks (-13 K-BB percentage), a 2.50 WHIP, a 56.7 strike percentage, and an 81 percent contact rate through his first four innings. It’s a small sample, but it resembles his first-half struggles last year, not the strong finish. It’s disconcerting seeing a team’s closer rank last in Win Probability Added (a metric on Fangraphs which values if a reliever enhances his team’s chances for a win):
With the bullpen losing Josh Sborz (shoulder) to the 15-day injured list, the depth takes a hit, placing Leclerc under more scrutiny. If his slow start continues, there are two relievers with “closer” experience on the roster in case Bochy makes a change.
Kirby Yates represents one of five relievers in this season’s very limited sample with a K-BB percentage greater than 20, a swinging strike percentage above 15, a strike percentage over 65, and a contact rate allowed of 65 percent or lower:
Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/POwNE/1/
Remembering it’s a limited timeframe, he’s turned in three scoreless outings with three strikeouts versus zero walks with a 2.14 SIERA, and 0.33 WHIP. He’s been the preferred option by his manager against the toughest left-handed hitting pockets early on, but could take on a larger leverage role if needed.
David Robertson leads his team in holds (4), and also collected a win during his first five appearances, all scoreless. He’s posted a 1.06 WHIP with a 4.28 SIERA, 64 strike percentage, 9.1 K-BB percentage, and allowed a 73.3 percent contact rate.
It’s possible Bochy would prefer a match-up-based approach if Leclerc cannot turn his results around. This will be monitored, but the early data prefers Yates.
Tanner Scott, Miami Marlins
Not only did Scott save his bullpen in the second half, but he was arguably the second most valuable reliever after the All-Star break last year behind Robert Stephenson. However, things went sideways early in spring, and may be improving, but his command has been abysmal through his first four contests. His 2.25 ERA accompanies a 6.46 SIERA and a 1.75 WHIP. He’s recorded five strikeouts against six walks (-4.8 K-BB percentage) with a 57.1 strike percentage, and an 81.8 percent contact rate allowed. Perhaps the biggest concern, his 6.6 swinging strike percentage.
It may be too early for an overreaction, but things must improve if he remains atop the bullpen hierarchy until he’s traded. His pending free agency will give him more save opportunities since there’s no value in a demoted leverage reliever.
Anthony Bender was a popular add in this weekend’s FAAB-run in NFBC contests. He has closer experience and owns a 6:1 K:BB (29.4 K-BB percentage) over 3.2 innings early on. He also boasts a 77.8 percent contact rate allowed while throwing strikes 64.2 percent of his pitches, and a paltry 9.9 swinging strike percentage. Being the highest-leveraged right-handed reliever may yield save chances soon, but there may be traffic on the bases during them.
Andrew Nardi also started slowly but may be righting the ship. He fired a clean outing on Sunday while recording two strikeouts and his underlying data suggests some bad luck in his early outcomes. He also touts a 6:1 K:BB (21.7 K-BB percentage) through his first five games with a 16.62 ERA versus a 2.98 SIERA, 14.7 swinging strike percentage, a 67.4 strike percentage, and a 74.1 percent contact rate allowed.
Fantasy players will monitor this situation closely, but Scott will be provided a runway for finding past form, and the key lies in attacking hitters in the strike zone so his slider can produce whiffs.
Entering game play on Monday, April 8, here are the leaders by reliever categories.
Saves Leaders
- Emmanuel Clase (CLE) – 4
- Clay Holmes (NYY) – 4
- Carlos Estévez (LAA) – 3
- Kyle Finnegan (WSH) – 3
- Ryan Helsley (STL) – 3
- Kenley Jansen (BOS) – 3
- Evan Phillips (LAD) – 3
- Robert Suarez (SDP) – 3
- Abner Uribe (MIL) – 3
Holds Leaders
- Scott Barlow (CLE) – 4
- Andrew Kittredge (STL) – 4
- David Robertson (TEX) – 4
SOLDS (saves plus holds) Leaders
- Scott Barlow (CLE) – 4
- Aroldis Chapman (PIT) – 4
- Emmanuel Clase (CLE) – 4
- Clay Holmes (NYY) – 4
- Andrew Kittredge (STL) – 4
- David Robertson (TEX) – 4
Thanks for being a part of the Closer Monkey community. Stay safe and be well.
Statistical Credits:
