It’s the calm before the storm, with Opening Day upon us. Every team starts this season with hopes and aspirations, along with the fantasy community. Because there are no results worth sharing, going through each team’s high-leverage questions before games count makes sense. These will be split by league. Enjoy.
American League
Baltimore Orioles
With Félix Bautista out for the season, can the revamped leverage ladder preserve leads for Craig Kimbrel?
The good news, Dillon Tate and Danny Coulombe turned in strong spring outings. The bad news, Cionel Pérez, and Jacob Webb did not. A key for the bullpen will be Yennier Cano not suffering a sophomore slump.
Boston Red Sox
Can Kenley Jansen stay healthy and boost his cutter velocity once games count? Who will he be traded to?
Most forget Jansen converted 29 of 33 save chances last year, though this snapped his streak of recording at least 30 saves over a full 162-game season since 2014. He and Chris Martin will be unrestricted free agents at the end of the year, so it’s a matter of when, not if each gets moved ahead of the trade deadline. This brings up the last question, will Liam Hendriks secure a save in 2024?
Chicago White Sox
Who receives the first save chance? Can a reliever emerge with the primary save share?
No matter who the fantasy community prefers gets save chances, it’s the manager’s decision. After showing strong results in spring appearances as a reliever, will Pedro Grifol deploy Michael Kopech as his closer?
Cleveland Guardians
Will Emmanuel Clase post a third straight year with at least 40 saves?
His 110 saves since the start of 2021 ranks first among all relievers. Yes, he suffered 12 blown saves last year. Can his slider perform more like 2022 (27.5 swinging strike percentage) versus last year’s results (16.4 percent swinging strike rate)? If yes, he’s as stable as they come for saves.
Detroit Tigers
Will Alex Lange throw enough first-pitch strikes and rein in his command unlocking a career year? Or, will he lose his grip on the preferred save share in his hierarchy?
Lange finished spring with an encouraging 62.5 strike percentage, which would represent a career-best in the category. It’s a very limited sample, but a point of emphasis in his off-season training. He’s a different pitcher when ahead in counts, which unlocks the door to his devastating change-up (18.7 percent swinging strike rate) and curve (23.4 swinging strike percentage). If he struggles, Jason Foley or Shelby Miller could move atop the bullpen hierarchy, but time will tell if it’s necessary.
Houston Astros
Beat writers for the Astros call Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly, and Bryan Abreu a dominant triumvirate, can they overcome a weak leverage bridge or will they wear down as the season ensues?
It’s been encouraging seeing Hader throw more sliders, which could increase his strikeout rate this season. However, Abreu finished the spring with a bloated 2.63 WHIP and seven strikeouts versus six walks over 5.1 innings. He’s also sitting a m.p.h. below his normal average fastball velocity. If he’s pitching through an injury or the struggles linger into the season, this already shaky leverage ladder gets even shakier.
Kansas City Royals
How long does Will Smith remain atop the hierarchy?
Adding veteran southpaw, and three-time World Champion Smith on the roster provides veteran leadership in the bullpen. But he struggled in the second half and was not a factor during his team’s postseason run. It feels like he’s a stopgap in the ninth, not a solution. This situation feels like the Cubs last year, meaning it may only be a matter of time until James McArthur takes over as the closer by June. Time will tell.
Los Angeles Angels
When does Robert Stephenson make his debut? Can Carlos Estévez remain atop the hierarchy until the trade deadline?
Riding the wave of a dominant second half with the Rays last year, Stephenson signed a three-year deal with the Angels as the closer of the future. He did not appear in a spring contest while dealing with shoulder discomfort in camp. He’s throwing on the side, but there’s no timeline for his team debut. Estévez was dominant in the first half last year, then regression fueled by fatigue harpooned his results after the All-Star break. He begins the year as the closer, but was two-to-four m.p.h. down with his fastball velocity this spring. Stay tuned.
Minnesota Twins
Who gets the first save chance this year? Will Griffin Jax be the team’s most valuable reliever this year?
Acknowledging most spring numbers may not matter, one cannot overlook Jax’s robust 12:0 K:BB through 7.2 scoreless frames with a 0.39 WHIP and a 30.2 swinging strike percentage. He may not be the interim closer and operate as the HLR, but his potential breakout season will help keep Jhoan Durán healthy when he returns and his role as the closer. Brock Stewart remains on the radar in deeper formats since he may accrue ancillary saves with Durán on the injured list.
New York Yankees
Which reliever replaces Michael King and who becomes the primary set-up reliever for Clay Holmes?
Early in the spring, it seemed like Ian Hamilton would be the natural replacement for King in this leverage ladder. He can log multiple-inning outings with strikeout upside or take on an opponent’s toughest lineup pocket before the ninth. However, with Tommy Kahnle on the injured list, Hamilton may be the eighth-inning cog and not cede the role. It’s also been reported Jonathan Loásiga will man a multi-inning relief role, then receive two days off before his next outing. If things go sideways, Holmes, Kahnle, and Loáisiga will be free agents at the end of the season. This ride may get bumpy, especially if the starting pitchers do not work deep into games with Gerrit Cole sidelined.
Oakland A’s
Will Mark Kotsay use Mason Miller as the closer?
This one’s a slam-dunk question since it determines the fantasy ceiling for the most talented pitcher on this team’s roster. Multiple beat writers have insinuated this will be his role, but until he receives early save chances, it causes apprehension for fantasy players. However, Miller posted a 14:2 K:BB (40 K-BB percentage) with a 57.1 ground-ball percentage, and 25.8 swinging strike percentage this spring. Facing major league lineups will be tougher, but his stuff should play as a high-leverage reliever. Health remains his final hurdle to clear.
Seattle Mariners
Can the Opening Day relievers be effective until Matt Brash and Gregory Santos return?
One of the most popular speculative relievers was Brash in the preseason, but his helium was tempered by an elbow issue. He’s at least three weeks away from appearing with the Mariners, and Santos may not be ready until mid-May. In the interim, the team needs strong performances from Ryne Stanek, Gabe Speier, Trent Thornton, Tayler Saucedo, and Austin Voth. Feeling lucky or will Andrés Muñoz be sleepless in Seattle?
Tampa Bay Rays
Will Pete Fairbanks follow up last year’s career bests with more innings and saves this year?
In 2023, Fairbanks set career highs in appearances (49), innings (45.1), strikeouts (68), and saves (25). His breakout dispelled the myth about the team using multiple relievers for saves rather than a primary save share. Will he remain healthy in 2024?
Texas Rangers
Does José Leclerc remain the closer for the entirety of 2024? Will Texas produce a better save percentage this season?
For Leclerc, it’s all about velocity and command. Throwing strikes unleashes his slider for strikeouts. Working behind in counts results in traffic, which represents tightrope walks during high-leverage events. Despite winning the World Series, this bullpen only converted 47.6 percent of its save chances. Less than optimal.
Toronto Blue Jays
Who gets the first save this season? When will Jordan Romano (elbow) and Erik Swanson (forearm) return?
Late injury news during spring training creates anxiety for fantasy players. Although the team maintains the MRIs for its top leverage options were clean, both will open the season on the injured list. Yimi García and Chad Green project as the most likely options for saves in their stead. But, this will be a different leverage ladder with Wes Parsons and Nate Pearson active instead of Romano and Swanson.
National League
Arizona Diamondbacks
Will this bullpen withstand the loss of Paul Sewald (oblique) early on?
Even though manager Torey Lovullo refused to name a replacement for Sewald, fantasy players will focus on Kevin Ginkel. He recorded six wins, two saves, a 0.96 WHIP, and 36 strikeouts over his last 27.2 innings last year. He’s capable of filling in for Sewald, but getting him the ball in the ninth may be a challenge at times unless Ryne Nelson, Scott McGough, and Miguel Castro step up.
Atlanta Braves
Does Raisel Iglesias remain healthy all season?
Despite missing time last year with a shoulder injury, Iglesias notched 33 saves in only 58 appearances. During his time in Atlanta, he owns a 98:20 K:BB (23.6 K-BB percentage), a 1.07 WHIP, and secured 34 saves across 82 innings.
Chicago Cubs
How well does Adbert Alzolay do in his second season atop the hierarchy?
It was a tale of two halves for Alzolay during his first full season as a reliever. In the first half, he posted a 24.8 K-BB percentage, a 2.80 SIERA, and a 0.92 WHIP. After the All-Star break, his K-BB percentage slipped to 16.3 percent with a 3.82 SIERA, and 1.18 WHIP. He also missed time with forearm tightness in September. His injury issues from the past should be ignored, but he’s still the best option for saves in this leverage ladder.
Cincinnati Reds
Will the real Alexis Díaz please stand up, please stand up?
Through September 15 last year, he owned a 2.10 ERA with 36 saves after 66 appearances. After this, his results cratered though fatigue was a contributing factor. But, his K-BB percentage declined by the month down the stretch. He also turned in a rough spring, so he enters the season under the microscope of many fantasy players.
Colorado Rockies
Who leads this team in saves at the end of the year?
After a spring competition for the closer role, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post wrote the team has “penciled” in Justin Lawrence as the primary save share but speculated Tyler Kinley could also factor in early save chances. Meanwhile, Daniel Bard continues his rehab for a return in May. This role may change hands multiple times this year.
Los Angeles Dodgers
How do the veterans hold up under the pitch clock rules in 2024?
Since most relievers adapted to the rules changes enacted last year, Blake Treinen and Daniel Hudson did not, missing the majority of 2023. They will be factors in this leverage ladder but may wear down or require injured list stints throughout the season. Brusdar Graterol opens the year on it with shoulder and hip soreness. If this unit loses veteran relievers, the team will be very active ahead of the trade deadline. Thankfully, Evan Phillips remains one of the most under appreciated relievers in baseball. For a second straight season he logged at least 60 appearances, produced 60 strikeouts over 60-plus innings, and owned a WHIP below one. He’s the only qualified reliever to do this over the last two years.
Miami Marlins
Can Tanner Scott carry over his command gains? Will he be traded ahead of the deadline? If yes, who replaces him as the primary save share?
Scott became the second reliever in team history with at least 100 strikeouts last year and tied for the most multiple-strikeout outings in the National League with 32. From August first-on, owned a 5-1 record while converting 10 of 12 save opportunities with a 33:3 K:BB (29.7 K-BB percentage) over 27.1 innings, a 0.70 WHIP, 0.99 ERA, 2.16 SIERA, 72 Strike percentage, and 18.2 swinging strike rate. After a rough spring, can he maintain some of these gains? He’s an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season, so which reliever(s) pitch well this year could be replacements in waiting for saves in August. Stay tuned.
Milwaukee Brewers
Who gets the first save chance? The second? The third?
See a theme here? What seemed like one of the easiest leverage ladders to predict became one of the toughest when Devin Williams was diagnosed with three stress fractures in his back. Add in a new manager who suggested a match-up-based approach in the high-leverage innings and it’s chaos for fantasy players. Now we await if it’s Joel Payamps, Abner Uribe, or Trevor Megill receiving the save chances, but it could be all three.
New York Mets
Will the trumpets returning be enough for this leverage ladder?
Displaying no signs of rust after missing 2023, Edwin Díaz will be the team’s closer and remains one of the best at his craft. However, his leverage bridge may be shaky at times, and this will affect his save total if they do not pitch well.
Philadelphia Phillies
Does any reliever represent the primary save share or will the “floating closer” concept remain in effect?
This topic was covered in detail in yesterday’s committee post, so it will not be repeated. Some asked about Orion Kerkering as well. He will be a leverage factor but will open the year on the injured list after missing most of training camp because of illness. Which sets his clock back for earning a larger role in this bullpen.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Is David Bednar ready for Opening Day? Should the velocity readings by Aroldis Chapman in his last spring outing be a concern? Who sets up for these two?
Will two spring outings be enough for Bednar? His velocity was on track, but his command was a bit spotty. Chapman was four m.p.h. his normal velocity against the Yankees, hopefully, this will be a blip. The biggest worry remains the bridge relievers getting the team to save chances.
San Diego Padres
Will “Big Game” Bobby remain healthy? How will Yuki hold up?
With two games under their belt, and Robert Suarez already tied for the major league lead in saves, he’s missed time in each of the two previous seasons, will he be available all year? Yuki Matsui has impressed, but can he handle the demands of an MLB season and the travel? Most players from the NPB wear down during their transitional season.
San Francisco Giants
Does Camilo Doval find trust in his slider again?
Doval went through a rough patch last August, blowing four straight save chances. During this time, he almost stopped throwing his slider, which did not resurface until Gabe Kapler was fired. Perhaps a new voice at the helm, and being on the precipice of his Age-26 season fuels growth in his strikeout percentage.
St. Louis Cardinals
Can Ryan Helsley make it through a full season? Will his velocity spike during a regular season outing?
Usually fantasy players worry about the usage patterns for Helsely by his manager, but ahead of Opening Day, it’s more about his velocities this spring:
In an interview, the reliever said working with lower velocity was by design with eyes on remaining healthy throughout 2024. We will find out soon.
Washington Nationals
Will Kyle Finnegan fend off Hunter Harvey and remain the primary save share in 2024?
Finnegan opened 2023 as the closer, lost his grip on the role, regained it after the All-Star break, and never looked back while recording a career-best 28 saves. Despite this, many prefer Harvey as the closer of the future for this franchise. This may be an inevitability, but once the lights go on, it’s still Finnegan atop the hierarchy, for now.
Thanks for stopping by Closer Monkey on Opening Day. Until next time, stay safe and be well.
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