Fantasy players hate the words, closer-by-committee. Although baseball’s leverage usage patterns evolve with advanced analytics maximizing match-ups, clarity in a bullpen makes life easier. Because of injuries or manager preferences, there are five potential unsettled hierarchies, with Colorado a possibility. With this in mind, this post will provide insight into how save situations may unfold, but until managers deploy their leverage structure during a game, it’s purely speculative.
Chicago White Sox
As previously mentioned, Pedro Grifol has remained steadfast in his stance he does not have a closer unless Dennis Eckersley walks into the clubhouse. It’s funny he referenced this dominant reliever in particular since he was more effective as a reliever than a starter. During his career, Eckersley owned a 9.7 K-BB percentage with a 1.214 WHIP. As a reliever, his results improved vastly, posting a 20.8 K-BB percentage with a 0.998 WHIP. Now check out the split results by role for Michael Kopech:
With more seasoning as a one-inning reliever, there’s a pathway for success by him, especially if he’s closing out contests. Veterans John Brebbia and Steven Wilson, along with rookie Jordan Leasure may be factors in high-leverage events, but if one from this group could take the role and run with it, Kopech’s arsenal represents the best bet.
Milwaukee Brewers
Losing a dominant closer for up to three months does not help a team hoping it can contend why retooling on the fly, but the Brewers will do their best. Adding in a new manager does not make things any easier, especially when his comments hint toward a match-up-based leverage plan for the late innings. He’s mentioned three relievers: Joel Payamps, Abner Uribe, and Trevor Megill. They all pitched together in the same bullpen last year during the second half and here are their respective numbers from this timeframe:
- Payamps (2H): 4-4 record, 11 holds, 2 blown saves, 28.1 IP, 30:9 K:BB (17.6 K-BB percentage), 1.16 WHIP, 3.61 SIERA, 74.8 contact rate allowed, 62.7 strike percentage
- Uribe (2H): 1-0 record, 1 saves, 8 holds, 1 blown save, 28.2 IP, 37:20 K:BB (14.3 K-BB percentage), 1.19 WHIP, 4.17 SIERA, 69.5 contact rate allowed, 59.2 strike percentage
- Megill (2H): 4 holds, 1 blown save, 18 IP, 29:4 K:BB (34.7 K-BB percentage), 1.17 WHIP, 2.00 SIERA, 70.4 contact rate allowed, 65.9 strike percentage
Using the win probability tab from Fangraphs, here’s how these relievers fared in the metric, obviously, a higher WPA equals better results as a reliever in the highest-leveraged moments:
Because we cannot account for, nor predict how Pat Murphy will handle save chances, it’s a roll of the dice. Payamps could be the HLR (highest-leveraged reliever), especially since he’s adept at stranding inherited runners. Uribe’s the closer of the future, but can he fill the role right now? It’s largely dependent on his command. Megill had tremendous results in this small sample, can he carry this level of production into 2024? More questions than answers right now. It’s very possible Megill receives early save chances, especially if Payamps enters in the seventh or eighth inning versus an opponent’s toughest lineup pocket. Uribe may have the most upside, but also the most risk. Feeling lucky? Adding fuel to the fire, Dave Adler listed his thoughts in MLB.com’s Opening Day lineups.
Minnesota Twins
One cannot question the dominant spring turned in by Griffin Jax. He recorded 7.2 scoreless frames in eight appearances with 12 strikeouts and zero walks (42.9 K-BB percentage). His minuscule 0.39 WHIP and robust 30.2 swinging strike percentage also jump off the page. However, he may not receive the primary save share with Jhoan Durán (moderate oblique strain) on the injured list because Jax represents the best reliever in a bullpen rife with injuries. It’s been intimated by more than one source Brock Stewart could receive ancillary save chances if his teammate’s needed against the heart of an opposing team’s lineup in the eighth inning. Rocco Baldelli will play for the win, not reserve a reliever for the ninth in this situation.
With this in mind, here are their leverage results from last year, though Stewart only logged 27.2 innings:
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There’s nothing wrong with teams that added Jax when the news broke, just do not be frustrated if he records a hold in some games based on how the lineup pockets progress in the high-leverage innings.
Philadelphia Phillies
At this time last year, Craig Kimbrel was a late-round stash who provided a tremendous return on investment. This also happened because José Alvarado spent two stints on the injured list. Manager Rob Thomson runs what he affectionately calls a “floating closer” concept, which does not rely on one person as the closer. He prefers keeping his leverage arms rested and matches up by lineup pockets in the last three innings. Because of his handedness, there will be one, maybe two, right-handed relievers getting save chances early on: Jeff Hoffman and/or Seranthony Domínguez.
But, all of this depends on the roles given by Thomson, sometimes on a daily basis. This chart displays the leverage results from the last three years, though he took over midseason in 2022:
Taking this a step further, Domínguez was a fantasy darling last preseason, but started 2023 with reduced velocity and was surpassed by Kimbrel in the bullpen hierarchy. However, he’s been much better this spring with his velocity intact. This chart displays the leverage results for Alvarado and Hoffman last year, along with Domínguez’s from 2022:
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It will be curious how Thomson uses his deep and pliable bullpen. Although the fantasy community prefers Alvarado getting the primary save share, what percentage of his team’s saves will he record this season? Stay tuned.
Toronto Blue Jays
Last, but not least, the Blue Jays finally announced they will place Jordan Romano (elbow) and Erik Swanson (forearm) on the injured list before Opening Day. This provides Yimi García and Chad Green with save opportunities at the onset of the season. Through eight spring outings, García posted a 9:2 K:BB (20.6 K-BB percentage) with a 0.67 WHIP, and a 17.9 swinging strike percentage. He also recorded three saves in 2023, along with 19 holds. Green missed most of 2023, but owned an 11:1 K:BB (28.6 K-BB percentage) with a 1.57 WHIP over 7.2 innings. He had some rough early appearances, but was scoreless in three of his last four contests. If forced to hedge, García likely gets the majority of save chances, but time will tell.
Thankfully, many of these answers will emerge during the first two weeks of the season. We appreciate your support of Closer Monkey. Buckle in, things may get bumpy in leverage events soon.
Until next time, stay safe and be well.
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