Updated Tiered Rankings, March 23 (Jewett)

Photo by: Jennifer Buchanan / The Seattle Times)

Appreciating this remains a fluid process, especially given the recent injury news for many relievers, a second run of tiered rankings seems appropriate, especially for those who may be drafting or taking part in an auction this weekend. These rankings do not reflect average draft position (available at Fantasy Pros). Instead, they are based on blended rankings from Fangraphs (Steamer, THE BAT, and ZiPS), with my save projections fused in. I use a spreadsheet with Standings Gain Points as my guide, though there are a couple of liberties taken in the tiers below.

One does not have to take a reliever where they will be listed, but this will be a guide on relievers, not consensus group think. It’s not gospel, and if you feel differently about a reliever, target him accordingly.

Tier One

  • Emmanuel Clase (CLE)
  • Edwin Díaz (NYM)

This tier lost a member when Devin Williams was diagnosed with two stress fractures in his back. Others will be drafted ahead of this group, but using the data, they bubbled toward the top. No other reliever may provide the strikeout upside Díaz possesses, and Durán may take his game to a new level like Félix Bautista did last year. There’s risk with any reliever, but they present high ceilings. No one loves Clase, but he’s recorded 40-plus saves in consecutive seasons. He’s the floor play. (UPDATE: With Jhoan Durán on the injured list for Opening Day with an oblique injury, he leaves this tier for upcoming drafts)

Tier Two

  • Andrés Muñoz (SEA)
  • Raisel Iglesias (ATL)
  • Josh Hader (HOU)
  • Camilo Doval (SFG)
  • Pete Fairbanks (TBR)
  • Evan Phillips (LAD)
  • David Bednar (PIT)

It’s the pick-your-poison tier, with Muñoz leading the way. He’s not for the risk-averse, but if he’s closer to his 2022 iteration than last year, he could be the reliever taken in the second tier this year who performs like a top-tier reliever. Iglesias and Hader will be “safer” picks, especially given their team’s propensity for contending each season. Doval could be hurt by his team’s win total. Fairbanks may not be sexy, but when healthy, produces solid numbers. Bednar made his spring debut on Thursday (March 21), showing no decline in velocity. His workload may be managed early on, but he’s back on track for Opening Day.

Tier Three

  • Craig Kimbrel (BAL)
  • Tanner Scott (MIA)
  • Alexis Díaz (CIN)
  • Ryan Helsley (STL)
  • Jordan Romano (TOR)
  • Jhoan Durán (MIN)
  • Clay Holmes (NYY)
  • Adbert Alzolay (CHC)
  • Mason Miller (OAK)

Many fantasy players may draw a line in this tier, meaning they will have one, if not two relievers, because this represents the cliff for many. There will be the never-pay-for-saves crowd in every room, which can work, especially since one can make the case for and against each of these relievers. Díaz tailed off at the end of last year, was it fatigue or the decaying K-BB percentage? Scott has displayed poor command this spring, can he dial it back in while working on his mechanics in the backfields? Miller may emerge as a terrific high-leverage reliever, will the A’s let him? (UPDATE: With Durán’s injury, giving him 50 projected innings, which lands him between Sewald and Holmes in SGPs. Add Paul Sewald into this mix with a Grade 2 oblique strain of his own)

Tier Four

  • Robert Suarez (SDP)
  • Kenley Jansen (BOS)
  • José Leclerc (TEX)
  • Alex Lange (DET)
  • Carlos Estévez (LAA)
  • José Alvarado (PHI)
  • Hunter Harvey (WSH)

Mining for a second reliever here can make sense, and at his present price point, Suarez will enhance many team builds. Jansen did not make a splashy debut this spring, but he did record 29 saves last year in 33 chances. He does present a risk in WHIP moving forward, father time always wins. No one loves Estévez, but he has the ninth inning and his main competition has not resumed throwing with shoulder discomfort. Alvarado’s another high-risk, high-reward reliever, but his floor will not be as safe as others.

Tier Five

  • Kevin Ginkel (ARI)
  • Griffin Jax (MIN)
  • Michael Kopech (CWS)
  • Paul Sewald (ARI)
  • Robert Stephenson (LAA)
  • Devin Williams (MIL)
  • Jason Adam (TBR)
  • Aroldis Chapman (PIT)
  • Ryan Pressly (HOU)
  • A.J. Minter (ATL)
  • Yuki Matsui (SDP)
  • Jeff Hoffman (PHI)
  • Brock Stewart (MIN)

It feels like risk may be the prevailing theme of this exercise. Stephenson and Williams still receive decent SGPs based on past pedigree, but health will determine their fantasy impacts. Can Kopech thrive as a closer, or will his team even use him as one? No idea. However, his results as a reliever in 2021, especially the 25.2 K-BB percentage over 55.1 innings with 80 strikeouts cannot be overlooked. If he does well, the team can move him ahead of the trade deadline. Adam, Matsui, Chapman, Pressly, and Minter represent handcuffs with ancillary save upside. If you believe in Lange, move him up. It’s all about the walk rate in my apprehension with him. He has great secondary offerings, but his fastball remains flat and hittable. Hoffman may be a surprise, yet, he could be a late round flier who gets double digits in saves within the Phillies’ “floating closer” concept. (UPDATE: With the Twins’ news, Jax enters this tier with a projected 10 saves by our team).

Tier Six

  • Kyle Finnegan (WSH)
  • Will Smith (KCR)
  • Justin Lawrence (COL)
  • Bryan Abreu (HOU)
  • Joel Payamps (MIL)
  • Giovanny Gallegos (STL)
  • Yimi García (TOR)
  • Josh Sborz (TEX)
  • Justin Lawrence (COL)

Can Finnegan prove me wrong for a third straight year, it’s entirely possible. Beat writers keep saying it’s Payamps getting the first chance, but if he gets stuck as the HLR (highest leveraged reliever), a different Brewers reliever may provide late-round value, segue alert.

Late-Round Fliers

  • Trevor Megill/Abner Uribe (MIL)
  • Jordan Leasure (CWS) – stash play
  • Chris Martin (BOS) – Jansen’s workload will also be managed closely
  • James McArthur (KCR) – this year’s Alzolay

Hybrids (Relievers who may work multiple innings with ancillary save upside)

  • Ian Hamilton (NYY) – though he may emerge as the primary high-leverage set-up reliever
  • Chad Green (TOR)
  • Sixto Sánchez (MIA)

Thanks for stopping by. Until next time, stay safe and be well.

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Top 60 Relievers for SOLDS, March 22 (Jewett)

Leagues that use SOLDS (saves plus holds) allow fantasy players a little more leeway while building a roster. One can target the best relievers on teams with high win totals, not necessarily targeting “closers“, which creates unique values, especially for relievers with strong K-BB percentages and strong ratios. Fusing blended projections from Fangraphs with my own SOLDS projections, here’s a top 60 for the upcoming draft weekend. For those interested, the projections can be viewed on this SPREADSHEET.

SOLDS Top 60 Relievers

  1. Emmanuel Clase, Cleveland Guardians
  2. Camilo Doval, San Francisco Giants
  3. Edwin Díaz, New York Mets
  4. Andrés Muñoz, Seattle Mariners
  5. Raisel Iglesias, Atlanta Braves
  6. Josh Hader, Houston Astros
  7. Pete Fairbanks, Tampa Bay Rays
  8. Evan Phillips, Los Angeles Dodgers
  9. David Bednar, Pittsburgh Pirates
  10. Ryan Helsley, St. Louis Cardinals
  11. Craig Kimbrel, Baltimore Orioles
  12. Paul Sewald, Arizona Diamondbacks
  13. Jordan Romano, Toronto Blue Jays
  14. Alexis Díaz, Cincinnati Reds
  15. Clay Holmes, New York Yankees
  16. Tanner Scott, Miami Marlins
  17. Jhoan Durán, Minnesota Twins
  18. Adbert Alzolay, Chicago Cubs
  19. Robert Suarez, San Diego Padres
  20. Kenley Jansen, Boston Red Sox
  21. Carlos Estévez, Los Angeles Angels
  22. Hunter Harvey, Washington Nationals
  23. Devin Williams, Milwaukee Brewers
  24. Mason Miller, Oakland Athletics
  25. José Alvarado, Philadelphia Phillies
  26. José Leclerc, Texas Rangers
  27. Alex Lange, Detroit Tigers
  28. Aroldis Chapman, Pittsburgh Pirates
  29. Kyle Finnegan, Washington Nationals
  30. Michael Kopech, Chicago White Sox
  31. A.J. Minter, Atlanta Braves
  32. Ryan Pressly, Houston Astros
  33. Jason Adam, Tampa Bay Rays
  34. Robert Stephenson, Los Angeles Angels
  35. Will Smith, Kansas City Royals
  36. Yuki Matsui, San Diego Padres
  37. Griffin Jax, Minnesota Twins
  38. Bryan Abreu, Houston Astros
  39. Yennier Cano, Baltimore Orioles
  40. Joel Payamps, Milwaukee Brewers
  41. Seranthony Domínguez, Philadelphia Phillies
  42. Josh Sborz, Texas Rangers
  43. Chris Martin, Boston Red Sox
  44. Kevin Ginkel, Arizona Diamondbacks
  45. Scott Barlow, Cleveland Guardians
  46. Tyler Kinley, Colorado Rockies
  47. Giovanny Gallegos, St. Louis Cardinals
  48. Julian Merryweather, Chicago Cubs
  49. Yimi García, Toronto Blue Jays
  50. Abner Uribe, Milwaukee Brewers
  51. James McArthur, Kansas City Royals
  52. Pierce Johnson, Atlanta Braves
  53. Ian Hamilton, New York Yankees
  54. Shelby Miller, Detroit Tigers
  55. Jason Foley, Detroit Tigers
  56. Jeff Hoffman, Philadelphia Phillies
  57. Justin Lawrence, Colorado Rockies
  58. Hector Neris, Chicago Cubs
  59. Taylor Rogers, San Francisco Giants
  60. Trevor Megill, Milwaukee Brewers

Looking back, here are the SOLDS leaders in 2023

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/lpxoS/27/

For a look at team results by league, here are the high-leverage results in the American League

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/DkjKo/22/

And, the team results for the National League in 2023

Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/mMTVE/19/

Best of luck in your upcoming drafts, it’s the best time of the year.

Stay safe and be well.

Statistical Credits

  • Fangraphs.com
  • Baseball-Reference.com

Spring Vibes, March 22: Suarez shines in Seoul, Jansen declares himself ready for Opening Day, Bednar debuts, Game Recaps, and more

San Diego Padres – Despite letting two of three inherited runners score in the eighth on a Mookie Betts single, Robert Suarez settled in against the Dodgers, tossing 1.1 scoreless frames and striking out two for his first save of the season. He threw 24 pitches (66.7 Strike%) and induced five whiffs (20.8 SwStr%) versus the top of the lineup, including strikeouts against Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy:

Stephen Kolek got credit for his first major league hold, recording two outs while giving up two earned runs, a hit batter, and a walk in the eighth inning. Yuki Matsui gave up two hits, letting his only inherited runner score over two-thirds of the seventh. Michael King collected his first win logging 3.1 frames, allowing four hits, three earned runs, and three walks while striking out five as a “bulk reliever”.

Hierarchy remains: Robert Suarez | Yuki Matsui | Wandy Peralta

Los Angeles Dodgers – Some rough outings in an eventual loss in Game 2 of the Seoul Series. Gus Varland retired his only batter faced in the bottom of the eighth, stranding an inherited runner. J.P. Feyereisen displayed some rust in his first major-league appearance since June 22, 2022. He gave up three hits, three earned runs, and a walk while striking out one in a combined inning of relief. Ryan Yarbrough logged 1.2 innings, giving up a hit, an unearned run, and two walks while striking out one. Alex Vesia allowed a hit, an earned run, and a walk while striking out two in the sixth. Kyle Hurt worked two innings, yielding three hits, an earned run, and a walk.

Hierarchy remains: Evan Phillips | Joe Kelly | Daniel Hudson

Boston Red Sox – Making his second appearance this spring, Kenley Jansen fired a clean fifth, striking out two. By my count, he threw 13 pitches (9 Strikes – 69.2 Strike%) with three whiffs (23.1 SwStr%). On the broadcast, he was between 93-to-95 m.p.h. with his cutter. Things did not go as smoothly for Chris Martin. He allowed two hits and an unearned run over one-third of the sixth, throwing 20 pitches before being removed. The good news, he hit 95 m.p.h. on the radar. After the game, Jansen told Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe he will be ready for Opening Day.

Hierarchy remains: Kenley Jansen | Chris Martin | Josh Winckowski

Pittsburgh Pirates – Making his spring debut, David Bednar allowed two hits and recorded one strikeout. He threw 15 pitches (60 Strike%) with two whiffs (13.3 SwStr%). With his velocity in line with last year, some worries about him may subside. However, his team will monitor his workload closely early on this season.

Hierarchy remains: David Bednar | Aroldis Chapman | Colin Holderman

Toronto Blue Jays – Courtesy of this tweet by Arden Zwelling on “X”, Erik Swanson played catch on Thursday, reporting he felt good after. Jordan Romano will rest for one or two more days before throwing again. The biggest part of the report, Toronto will decide by Monday on each reliever’s status for Opening Day. 

Hierarchy tentatively remains: Jordan Romano | Erik Swanson | Yimi García

Washington Nationals – Making his first game appearance since March 12, Kyle Finnegan suffered his first blown save, giving up three hits, two runs (one earned), and striking out one over two-thirds of the seventh. After six outings this spring, he owns a 0.94 WHIP with 10 strikeouts through 5.1 innings, but his back tightness must be monitored moving forward.

Hierarchy remains: Kyle Finnegan | Hunter Harvey | Tanner Rainey

Quick Hits (Game Recaps from March 21)

Chicago White Sox – Manager Pedro Grifol remains cryptic when asked about roles in his bullpen, but relievers firmly in the mix for Opening Day worked during a tie versus the Royals. Jordan Leasure navigated around a hit and a walk, while striking out two for a scoreless fifth. He owns a 0.84 WHIP with nine strikeouts versus four walks over 6.1 innings. John Brebbia worked around a double for a scoreless sixth, recording one strikeout during his spring debut. Tim Hill tossed a scoreless seventh, walking one. Deivi García logged two scoreless frames, yielding a hit and a walk while striking out four.

Detroit Tigers – In a scoreless tie, Shelby Miller fired a clean sixth, striking out one on 11 pitches (63.6 Strike%) with three whiffs (27.3 SwStr%). He’s logged five spring outings producing a 0.80 WHIP with seven strikeouts against one walk. Alex Lange retired the side in order in the seventh, recording two strikeouts. He threw 12 pitches (75 Strike%) and induced four whiffs (33.3 SwStr%). Through his first five outings, he owns a 1.40 WHIP with a 9:2 K:BB over five innings.

San Francisco Giants – Turning in a scoreless outing, Taylor Rogers issued a walk and recorded two strikeouts in the fourth inning. Camilo Doval fired a clean fifth, striking out one. He’s logged five appearances this spring, posting a 1.00 WHIP with six strikeouts against two walks over five innings.

Tampa Bay Rays – Tuning up for Opening Day, Pete Fairbanks turned in a crisp outing, retiring both batters faced in the bottom of the eighth via strikeout, and collected his first spring win as a result. He threw seven pitches (85.7 Strike%) and produced two whiffs (28.6 SwStr%). Through five spring appearances, he owns a 1.07 WHIP with seven strikeouts against two walks over 4.2 innings. Phil Maton worked a scoreless combined inning, scattering two hits and striking out two. Jason Adam suffered his first blown save, allowing five hits, four runs (one earned), and striking out one.

Closer Monkey’s filthy pitch of the day, this 100 m.p.h. heater by Robert Suarez during his first save of 2024, courtesy of the Pitching Ninja.

Until next time, stay safe and be well.

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