2023 Trade Deadline Buy/Sell: American League

July 13, 2023

Special Update (Part 1 of 2 — check back tomorrow for the National League)

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Glossary:
BUY+: This player has a strong chance (at least 50%) of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
BUY: This player has a small chance (at least 20%) of becoming a closer by the trade deadline.
SELL: This player has a small chance (at least 20%) of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.
SELL+: This player has a large chance (at least 50%) of losing his closer job by the trade deadline.

TL;DR — AL relievers
BUY+:
BUY: Aroldis Chapman, Carlos Hernandez
SELL: Clay Holmes, Will Smith, Carlos Estevez
SELL+: Trevor May, Kendall Graveman
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AL East
Baltimore Orioles — The Orioles enter the All-Star break only two games out of first place in the toughest division in baseball. That’s due in part to the success of Felix Bautista and Yennier Cano. They should be buyers at the deadline, but don’t expect them to make a splash for a big-name closer. If anything, they’ll add a quality arm to get the ball to their two all-star relievers. BUY/SELL: None.

Boston Red Sox — The Red Sox finished the first half of the season on a five-game win streak and are only two games back of the second wild card spot in a crowded field. Whatever Boston decides to do at the deadline, it shouldn’t affect Kenley Jansen’s status as the team’s closer. BUY/SELL: None.

New York Yankees — The Yankees are just a game back from the second wild card spot and you’d expect them to be looking to add at the deadline. In terms of bullpen help, they’re one of the teams that could conceivably make a splash for a proven closer who would eliminate any need for a committee. We’ll put a light sell on Clay Holmes just in case the Yankees do add someone like Josh Hader or David Bednar. BUY: None;SELL: Clay Holmes.

Tampa Bay Rays — If the current AL East leaders add to their bullpen, it likely won’t be an established closer who will take over the ninth inning. These are the Rays we’re talking about, after all. We expect Pete Fairbanks will continue to be the leader of this everlasting committee. BUY/SELL: None.

Toronto Blue Jays — Like everyone else in the AL East, the Blue Jays are right in the thick of the playoff race. One place Toronto could look to add is in the bullpen. Like their divisional foes, if the Jays do reinforce their bullpen, Jordan Romano would only lose his job if they add another big-name closer. Of course, Romano also left the All-Star Game with tightness in his lower back, so that could throw a wrinkle into the proceedings if he has to miss any time. BUY/SELL: None.

AL Central
Chicago White Sox — The White Sox had a disappointing first half of the season and are currently 8 games back in a very weak AL central. Kendall Graveman should garner interest from contending teams looking to bolster their bullpen but he is unlikely to close for any team he would be traded to. Liam Hendriks has started throwing but there is no timetable for his return. One guy to keep an eye on is Gregory Santos as he is a young reliever who could get a shot if the White Sox decide to unload a bunch of bullpen arms at the deadline. BUY: Gregory Santos SELL+: Kendall Graveman.

Cleveland Guardians — Emmanuel Clase has not been nearly as dominant this year as he was last year and has already blown 7 saves. However, he still has 25 saves and is locked in as the Guardian’s closer. BUY/SELL: None.

Detroit Tigers — Alex Lange has had an up and down first half of the season. He has recorded 13 saves and blown 3 with an ERA a little over 4.00. He started off the year very well and has struggled more recently. That being said, there probably won’t be a ton of interest in Lange from other teams and the Tigers don’t have any clear alternatives even if Jason Foley is having a solid season so it’s likely Lange will continue to lead the Tigers’ bullpen  BUY/SELL: None.

Kansas City Royals — The Royals are challenging for the worst team in the league and they have a solid closer in Scott Barlow. Barlow hasn’t been as good this season but he still has a good track record over the past few seasons and would be a solid bullpen arm for a contending team to acquire. The Royals already traded one reliever in Aroldis Chapman and they will certainly be listening to offers for Barlow next. The Royals don’t have a clear guy to take over if Barlow is traded as Taylor Clarke has struggled and has an ERA of almost 6.00 so he will go with Carlos Hernandez as a slight buy given that he has been pitching well recently and seeing more time in the later innings when he isn’t used as an opener.  BUY: Carlos Hernandez; SELL: Scott Barlow.

Minnesota Twins — The Twins are a half game back of the Guardians for first place in the AL Central at the All-Star break. Their bullpen has been hit with injuries so they could look to bring in some more arms but nobody is likely to unseat Jhoan Duran. Duran has followed up on his strong rookie season with a solid first half, including 12 saves.  BUY/SELL: None.

AL West
Houston Astros — Dusty Baker’s group is as steady as they come, with the team having the league’s fourth best bullpen ERA at 3.56 despite a disastrous season from Rafael Montero (6.57 ERA, 1.59 WHIP). Ryan Pressly is holding the ninth-inning role again (2.52 ERA, 20 saves, 0.839 WHIP), while setup men Hector Neris (17 holds) and Bryan Abreu (15 holds) have been dynamite in holds leagues. A minor deadline acquisition for the bullpen is possible, but any significant trade would likely be for a rotation arm or a bat.BUY/SELL: None.

Los Angeles Angels — The Angels took a chance on former Rockies reliever Carlos Estevez. It didn’t look good at first after he had a rocky spring training and some early saves went to Jose Quijada, but Estevez has been excellent since, earning an All-Star Game nod after netting 21 saves with a 1.80 ERA. But the team recently lost Mike Trout for an extended amount of time and has lost nine of 10, slipping a game under .500, seven back in the division and five back in the Wild Card, so they could be sellers in a couple of weeks. Could the 30-year-old Estevez be on the block in that case? BUY: None;SELL: Carlos Estevez.

Oakland A’s — The A’s have the league’s worst bullpen, with Oakland relievers collectively earning a 5.75 ERA and -1.5 WAR. Yeesh. Trevor May is currently the closer, but it’s possible he could be moved at the deadline or falter and lose the job. If your league is desperate for saves and you can afford to lose the few saves from Trevor May, sell him for anything of value (and hope your league mate isn’t a loyal Closer Monkey reader). BUY: None;SELL+: Trevor May.

Seattle Mariners — In recent years, Seattle has sported some effective late-inning options but typically deployed a committee, spreading the saves out to multiple relievers. But this year, thanks in part to an injury to Andres Munoz, Paul Sewald has taken the reins, netting 17 of the team’s 20 saves. Expect more of the same in the second half, assuming the Mariners (45-44) don’t add a late-inning reliever via trade. The bullpen (3.73 ERA) hasn’t been the problem for the mediocre M’s this season, though. BUY/SELL: None.

Texas Rangers — Texas has already dipped its toes in the trade market, adding veteran Aroldis Chapman to the mix. The Rangers’ bullpen ERA is among the worst in baseball (4.74 ERA), so relief help was needed quickly, and more could be coming if Texas can remain as a contender (losers of 7 of 10 entering the break but still two games up in the AL West). Will Smith has been solid this season (3.06 ERA, 0.866 WHIP, 9.7 K/9), but so has Chapman (2.23 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 15.9 K/9). Smith is the current committee leader so it’s more likely than not he leads the team in second-half saves, but don’t be surprised if Chapman or someone currently outside the organization assumes the role at some point. BUY: Aroldis Chapman; SELL: Will Smith.

Jose Alvarado placed on the IL

July 10, 2023

Philadelphia Phillies – The Phillies placed Jose Alvarado on the IL with elbow inflammation, retroactive to July 7. Jeff Hoffman and Matt Strahm are likely to see more hold opportunities as a result, while Gregory Soto moves to the handcuff spot for now.

Updated hierarchy: Kimbrel | Soto | Hoffman.

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AJ Puk bounces back while Alex Lange finishes off a combined no-hitter

July 9, 2023

Miami Marlins – The Marlins sent A.J. Puk right back out there after blowing the save the night before and he responded with a scoreless inning for his 15th save of the season.  It was important for Puk to lock down this save after failing in his two previous opportunities but it also shows that the Marlins still have confidence in him. 

Hierarchy remains: Puk | Floro | Brazoban.

Detroit Tigers – Alex Lange threw a perfect 9th inning to pick up his 13th save of the season and finish off a combined no-hitter with Matt Manning and Jason Foley. 

Hierarchy remains: *Lange | Foley | Cisnero.
* = closer-by-committee

New York Yankees — Michael King relieved starter Gerrit Cole and recorded the last five outs of the game to pick up his 6th save of the season.  The Yankees are still in committee mode and this save moves King back onto the hierarchy.

Updated hierarchy: *Holmes | Kahnle | King.
* = closer-by-committee

Boston Red Sox – Brandon Walter pitched the final three innings of a 10-3 Red Sox win to earn his first save.

Hierarchy remains: Jansen | Martin | Winckowski.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
Today
1. Trevor Stephan (CLE) – Emmanuel Clase has pitched in two straight.
2. Dylan Floro (MIA) – AJ Puk has pitched in two straight and three of four.
3. Genesis Cabrera (STL) – Jordan Hicks and Giovanny Gallegos have both pitched in three of four.
4. Andrew Chafin (ARI) – Scott MgGough threw 35 pitches over 2 innings yesterday.

Bard gets first save in 9 months

July 8, 2023
Colorado Rockies — With a 3 run lead in the 8th inning the Rockies gave the ball to Justin Lawrence, which left the 9th inning for Daniel Bard. Bard converted for his first save on the year and his first since October of 2022. This wasn’t purely matchup based, as Lawrence got the 8-9-1 hitters while Bard got heart of the order. Bard started the year on the IL while dealing with anxiety, but has pitched very well since his return, sporting a tidy 1.76 ERA (although walking hitters at a much higher rate than usual). Bard was the presumptive closer to start the year, so if this signals a shift in how the Rockies view their bullpen he may be worth a speculative add if you’re chasing saves. Lawrence hasn’t done anything to really lose the job though, so we will leave him at the top of this committee for now. 

Hierarchy remains: *Lawrence | Bard | Johnson.
* = closer-by-committee

Miami Marlins – A.J. Puk blew a save and took a loss last night. This was his second straight blown save, and he’s given up 5 runs over that span. Puk had emerged as the clear top option in the Miami pen, but these past two outings have been tough for the contending Marlins. It’s a bit too early to say that this is back to a committee, but we will keep an eye on any changes for the Marlins in the next week or two. 

Hierarchy remains: Puk | Floro | Brazoban.

Vulture Save Watch:

  1. Yennier Cano (BAL) — Felix Bautista threw 30 pitches last night, and has gone in 2 of 3.
  2. Gregory Santos/Reynaldo Lopez (CHW) — Kendall Graveman has gone in back to back and 3 of 4, while Santos has also pitched in back to back.
  3. Jose Alvarado (PHI) — Craig Kimbrel has thrown in back to back and 3 of 4.
  4. Dylan Floro (MIA) — AJ Puk has pitched in 2 of 3, throwing 43 pitches in that span.
  5. Mark Leiter Jr. (CHC) — Adbert Alzolay has pitched in 3 of 4, throwing 49 pitches.

For Sunday:

  1. Joel Payamps (MIL) — Today would be back to back and 3 of 4 for Devin Williams

Daniel Hudson hits the IL

July 7, 2023

Los Angeles Dodgers — It was another good news/bad news day for the Dodgers’ bullpen on Thursday. The bad news is that Daniel Hudson, who earned his first save in 392 days on Wednesday, landed on the IL with an MCL sprain on his right knee. Hudson is expected to miss at least 1-2 months, if not longer. The good news is that Brusdar Graterol, who was expected to end up on the IL yesterday, avoided that and looked sharp in an efficient eighth-inning hold. With Evan Phillips still unavailable, that left the save to Alex Vesia, who was recalled from Triple-A that afternoon. Vesia looked sharp as well, earning his first save in nearly a year. Caleb Ferguson, who desperately needed a day off after three straight outings, returns to the hierarchy following the Hudson injury, but we’ll keep an eye on Vesia to see if he continues to get high-leverage looks even when the Dodgers have their full complement of relievers available.

Updated hierarchy: *Phillips | Graterol | Ferguson.
* = closer-by-committee

Toronto Blue Jays — The Blue Jays recorded two saves on Thursday, but none came from a member of their hierarchy. After Jordan Romano blew a save in game one of the doubleheader, Yimi Garcia got the final two outs of the 11th inning to preserve a 6-2 win. In the nightcap, Nate Pearson was the last reliever standing to earn his first MLB save.

Hierarchy remains: Romano | Swanson | Mayza.

Milwaukee Brewers — As predicted in yesterday’s Vulture Save Watch, Joel Payamps protected a 6-5 lead for his third save of the season.

Hierarchy remains: Williams | Payamps | Peguero.

Chicago White Sox – Joe Kelly landed on the IL with right elbow inflammation, which means Reynaldo Lopez has returned to the hierarchy.

Updated hierarchy: Graveman | Kelly | Lopez.

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
Today:
1. Genesis Cabrera (STL) — Both Jordan Hicks and Giovanny Gallegos have gone back-to-back days.
2. Nick Martinez (SD) — Josh Hader may get a second straight day of rest after he pitched three in a row earlier this week.
3. Elvis Peguero (MIL) — This is a bit of a long shot, but if Devin Williams gets a second consecutive night off, Peguero could vulture a save since Joel Payamps has pitched in two straight.

Tomorrow:
1. Erik Swanson (TOR) — If Jordan Romano pitches today that will be two straight and three of four.
2. Gregory Santos (CHW) — Same is true for Kendall Graveman.
3. Jose Alvarado (PHI) — And for Craig Kimbrel.
4. Lucas Sims (CIN) — If Alexis Diaz pitches today it will be two in a row.